NKE · Larry McDonald
McDonald argued that heavy selling had created a capitulation opportunity in Nike, with a potential recovery extending toward the 2028 Olympics.
Original interview ↗The Julia La Roche Show · October 15, 2026
Stocks / Apparel & Footwear
NKEApparel & Footwear
FollowFollowingUnfollowNike, Inc.
$39.131d +1.5%5d +3.3%settled close · 2026-11-02
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Two views on Nike
Compare an October capitulation case with Fundsmith’s July exit rationale. These arguments were published at different times.
NKE · Fundsmith
Fundsmith said Nike’s turnaround would take longer than expected, with China and Converse continuing to cause problems.
Original shareholder letter · pp. 10–11 ↗The letter gives the month, not an exact sale date.Related July webinar · uploaded July 27 ↗
Editorial summaries of public statements. Dates belong to the cited sources; they are not trade execution dates.
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Mkt cap $58B (11/2)β 0.5752w $32–68Shares 1.19BInd. Rubber & Plastics FootwearNYSE since 1980Emp. 77,800HQ Beaverton, ORnike.com
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Who said what, and what NKE did next
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Who’s talking about NKE
Dates identify the source publication or upload. A webinar may have aired earlier; these are not trade dates.
11 bullish6 bearishlatest 2026-10-26
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Matthew Boss | Bearish | CNBC (uncut) | 50% of Nike's business is in lifestyle/sportswear that is down double digits, the company is not the… |
| 2026-10-21 | Rich Kleiman | Bullish | CNBC (uncut) | Nike can rebuild consumer enthusiasm through renewed storytelling, innovation and its roster of influential… |
| 2026-10-16 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bullish | Wealthion | Category 5 capitulation signal with 360M shares traded in one week against a 1.1B share float, 75-80% off… |
| 2026-10-15 | Larry McdonaldFounder, The Bear Traps Report | Bullish | Julia La Roche Show | Nike is triggering a seven-factor Category 5 capitulation signal — historically preceding 150%+ recoveries in… |
| 2026-10-15 | Jesse FelderAuthor, The Felder Report | Bullish | Thoughtful Money (Adam Taggart) | Nike is a world-class brand trading at historically cheap valuations and below its 200-week moving average… |
| 2026-10-12 | Gareth SolowayChief Market Strategist, Verified Investing | Bullish | Wealthion | Nike is a beaten-down name that has stood the test of time and pays a dividend; high-rate environment is… |
| 2026-10-01 | Cristina FernandezEquity analyst, Telsey Advisory Group | Bearish | Bloomberg Surveillance | Sales trends remain weak across core sportswear categories and won't show meaningful improvement until 2028… |
| 2026-10-01 | Joe FavoritoSports marketing consultant; adjunct professor, Columbia | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Nike's pivot toward women's sports and athlete endorsers like Caitlyn Clark positions the brand for long-term… |
| 2026-09-28 | David SwartzSenior equity analyst, Morningstar | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Nike is excessively punished at a 25-year price low; the multi-year inventory and product-innovation problems… |
| 2026-07-27 | Terry SmithFounder & CIO, Fundsmith | Bearish | Fundsmith LLP UK | Sold Nike because abandoning bricks-and-mortar retail allowed competitors to capture that shelf space… |
Show all 17 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bearish | The Compound | Nike's fundamentals are deteriorating with no credible recovery path — the brand has lost its moat like MTV… |
| 2026-04-15 | Ben CarlsonDirector of institutional AM, Ritholtz Wealth | Bearish | interview | Nike's pivot to direct-to-consumer away from wholesale channels (including Amazon) was a strategic mistake… |
| 2025-08-13 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Nike is 60% off its highs and trading at 2018 price levels as the 98th-largest S&P stock, with a long-term… |
| 2025-04-01 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bearish | The Compound | Nike shows zero signs of turnaround with revenue down 9%, gross margins falling 326bps YoY, China down 17%… |
| 2025-03-14 | Terry SmithFounder & CIO, Fundsmith | Bullish | Fundsmith LLP UK | Nike's self-inflicted wound of neglecting traditional bricks-and-mortar retail and ceding channel share to… |
| 2024-12-31 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Nike is set up for a technical bounce after its first-ever three consecutive down years — a historically… |
| 2021-09-14 | Chris BloomstranPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments | Bullish | POWERS Pod | Nike's shift from wholesale partners to direct-to-consumer app sales structurally doubles profitability… |
1 newer tracked mention of NKE is outside this page’s public window. Public history keeps a seven-day lag. Daily investor-call updates are a separate email choice above.Read the dated views ↑
Earnings
Next report: 16 Dec 2026 after the close
Confirmed date · consensus EPS 0.38. Reactions below are the next settled session over the prior close.
| Report | When | EPS actual vs est. | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | after the close | 0.48 vs 0.44 | +5.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | — | — | -1.3% |
The options tape
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where NKE’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 8 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are member content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
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+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
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