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Investors / stance tracking

What Terry Smith is saying

Founder & CIO, Fundsmith

56 dated public stances tracked since 2016-07-18, most recently 2026-07-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Terry Smith's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Terry Smith is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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56
tracked stances
44
themes
4
side flips
2026-07-27
last heard
Returns  90d +6.5% (n=21) · 180d +11.3% (n=14) · 1y +12.0% (n=11)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

INTU — bullish2026-03-17 → bearish2026-07-27
ULVR — bullish2024-04-10 → bearish2026-07-27
MSFT — bullish2024-09-26 → bearish2026-03-17
META — bullish2024-09-26 → bearish2026-03-17

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
FTNT33 bullish2026-07-27
AAPL22 bullish2024-09-26
ADP22 bullish2026-03-17
BF22 bearish2026-03-17
INTU21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-07-27
META21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-03-17

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-07-27 INTU bearish Terry Smith · video
Sold Intuit because roughly 37% of revenue comes from TurboTax tax-filing, which is highly vulnerable to large-language-model disruption, while management has buried its head in the sand over the underperforming Mailchimp acquisition
“37% of their revenue is tax filing in TurboTax… that is more vulnerable than accounting software”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 FTNT owns Terry Smith · video
Bought Fortinet when its share price stumbled post-COVID as the inflated WFH-security growth rate normalised, providing an attractive entry into a structurally strong security business
“we bought in there and so far so good”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 TXN bullish Terry Smith · video
Bought Texas Instruments when it announced significant US capacity investment in analog semiconductors, a long-duration capital commitment that validates the company's durable positioning in analog
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 SGE bullish Terry Smith · video
Replaced Intuit with Sage Group because Sage grows at roughly twice Intuit's rate and its accounting software faces materially lower AI-disruption risk than Intuit's tax-filing franchise
“twice that rate of growth and I've got less fear of AI interjection”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 APP bullish Terry Smith · video
Holds AppLoving at a smaller, more speculative weight with willingness to exit if fundamental growth does not materialise as expected
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 MAR bullish Terry Smith · video
Marriott continues to outperform despite Middle East travel headwinds, demonstrating the resilience of its asset-light, brand-driven lodging model
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 NKE bearish Terry Smith · video
Sold Nike because abandoning bricks-and-mortar retail allowed competitors to capture that shelf space permanently, and a recovery in China is similarly unclear, making the investment case structurally impaired rather than temporarily set back
“Can people repair that? I'm not so sure that they can.”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 ULVR bearish Terry Smith · video
Sold Unilever because repeated capital-allocation failures and management shortfalls represent an entrenched structural pattern rather than a one-off setback, and the turnaround story has been heard too many times
“I've heard this story before, and I'm just not buying it, basically”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 WOLTERS KLUWER bearish Terry Smith · video
Sold Wolters Kluwer because its core business of publishing professional technical information is fundamentally document- and language-based, precisely where large language models have the strongest competitive advantage
“we are talking again about documents… and language… it's their forte”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 TSM bullish Terry Smith · video
TSMC is the primary beneficiary of the semiconductor buildout regardless of which chip designer wins, and Smith is confident that structural position persists as far ahead as can feasibly be foreseen
“I do know that this is a primary beneficiary of what's going on and will continue to be so”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 GEV bullish Terry Smith · video
GE Vernova (referred to as 'Janova') benefits from data-centre power demand that Smith views as durable regardless of an AI-capex reversal, and its early-stage modular nuclear work provides additional long-term structural growth
“its very early stage work in modular nuclear reactors I think is going to continue going on come what may”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 LEGRAND bullish Terry Smith · video
Replaced Atlas Copco with Legrand because its low-voltage electrical equipment is a low-cost but mission-critical branded item in construction projects — electricians and quantity surveyors specify a trusted brand they won't risk their reputation on — giving…
“a very low-cost item that goes into a project that's mission critical”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 VEEV bullish Terry Smith · video
Replaced Wolters Kluwer with Veeva (referred to as 'Viva') because Veeva's software spans clinical-trial data through manufacturing and is deeply embedded in pharma operations — it goes well beyond language and documentation, which is AI's current forte
“we're no longer dealing with language here. We're dealing with something that goes considerably beyond that”
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-07-27 long MA / long V basket Terry Smith · video
Bought both Mastercard and Visa simultaneously for the first time because payment processors offer attractive valuation and the dual holding allows Fundsmith to run winners in the space without breaching single-stock concentration limits
Fundsmith Equity Fund Update Webinar - July 2026
2026-03-17 ESLOY bullish Terry Smith · video
World's largest eyeglass maker benefits from a secular tailwind of uncorrected global vision demand, developed-world trading-up in designer frames, and potential to define the next consumer computing paradigm through its Ray-Ban smart glasses partnership with…
“there's a chance that they are part of the development of a new product we haven't seen since the smartphone”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 MSFT bearish Terry Smith · video
AI capex at 87% of free cash flow in 2026 is transforming a capital-light, high-ROCE business into a capital-intensive one requiring ~$180B of incremental annual cash generation at 30% ROCE to justify the spend—a burden with no clear demand-side justification…
“these are not going to be capital light businesses. This is going to fundamentally change the characteristics of those companies in a way that we don't like”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 META bearish Terry Smith · video
Despite being a strong prior performer, AI capex at 91% of free cash flow creates the same structural concern as Microsoft—a capital-light model under threat with no visible dominant-player pathway that would justify the spend via monopoly pricing
“we did become quite pessimistic about whether or not the big tech companies that we have owned can continue to be the kind of companies that we want to own”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 AI HYPERSCALER CAPEX / DATA CENTER BUILDOUT bearish Terry Smith · video
The combined $20T market cap of top AI and semiconductor companies already exceeds the dot-com Nasdaq peak in real terms, CapEx commitments across Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Oracle, and CoreWeave range from 87% to 567% of free cash flow with no…
“The short answer to the first part of the question would seem to be yes. It is the biggest”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 BF bearish Terry Smith · video
Multiple compounding headwinds—weight loss drugs, Gen Z's declining alcohol consumption, and marijuana legalization—are structurally pressuring spirits volumes with no credible management response plan
“we need somebody to come along and say, we accept that there's a problem with generation Z, weight loss drugs, marijuana. We haven't heard that from anyone yet”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 INTU owns Terry Smith · video
Shares cratered after a demonstrably bad Mailchimp acquisition, creating an opportunity to re-enter a high-quality accounting and tax software business at a depressed price with the acquisition overhang fading
“the acquisition is sufficiently bad that they've now started reporting numbers ex-Mailchimp... we've started buying them”
90d -38.5%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 ZTS bullish Terry Smith · video
World's largest veterinary pharmaceutical company complements their Idexx holding in the vet sector; after share price weakness on drug side-effect concerns, a practising vet consultant confirmed the drug remains clinically appropriate to prescribe
“she said she knew about the side effects and would prescribe it”
90d -34.0%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 IDEX bullish Terry Smith · video
Idexx veterinary diagnostic equipment is back on a growth trend after the post-pandemic normalisation in pet visits fully ran its course, with the long-term structural story for companion animal health care intact
“it's now back on a growth trend again, I'm pleased to say”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 PEP bearish Terry Smith · video
Weight loss drugs directly threaten the snacks segment while persistent free cash flow growth weakness over several years removes the investment case
“snacks are actually in the crosshairs of that... so we sold them”
90d +5.6%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 WKL bullish Terry Smith · video
Wolters Kluwer's database of peer-reviewed medical and legal research is structurally resilient to AI disruption because AI hallucinations make it unsuitable for high-stakes professional research where accuracy is mission-critical
“I don't think I really want people to research medical procedures that they use on me by that method”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 PM bullish Terry Smith · video
Philip Morris is the structural leader in reduced-risk tobacco products—heat-not-burn and nicotine pouches—with the transition to these formats now visibly flowing through in share price performance
“they are the leader in reduced risk products... this has really been a great success for the company”
90d +6.1%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 FTNT owns Terry Smith · video
Physical hardware network security appliances remain integral to enterprise security architecture, making the software-replacement thesis overstated; Fortinet's setback is cyclical not structural following the post-pandemic demand hangover
“having a separate physical device with its own software is an integral part of network security and is likely to remain so. So we're still there”
90d +79.8%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 ADP bullish Terry Smith · video
ADP's payroll and HR processing is mission-critical and extraordinarily complex—navigating 50 different US state employment and tax regimes—while its proprietary data creates a moat that makes 'SaaS apocalypse' AI disruption fears overstated
“what they're providing is non-trivial... mission-critical and incredibly complex”
90d +7.2%
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-03-17 UNILEVER ICE CREAM SPINOFF (MAGNUM BRAND) bullish Terry Smith · video
The ice cream business is a good stand-alone operation that was strategically misfit inside Unilever and has self-help levers available as an independent company to improve performance over time
“I think it may have some mileage in terms of self-help to do some things that will improve its performance over the years”
FUNDSMITH Annual Shareholders' Meeting February 2026
2026-01-15 DGE bearish Seth Klarman · video
Structural headwinds including Gen Z drinking less, GLP-1/Ozempic reducing alcohol consumption, and rising cannabis use create secular decline in spirits demand, making the stock uninvestable despite an elevated free cash flow yield above 6%
“I've got no drinks companies right now...too many secular, structural headwinds at the moment for us to own anything there”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 FTNT owns Seth Klarman · video
Post-COVID growth normalisation from 40% to 10% caused an excessive share price halving, creating a buying opportunity in a fundamentally sound internet security business with a large installed base of Fortigate routers
“the share price halved, and we bought a load of it”
90d +4.4% · 180d +118.6%
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 PASSIVE INDEX FUNDS / MOMENTUM-DRIVEN LARGE-CAP CONCENTRATION bearish Seth Klarman · video
Index funds now exceed 50% of AUM and act as momentum vehicles that amplify flows into the largest stocks regardless of valuation, creating a reflexive bubble that will eventually reverse with multiplier-effect losses when flows reverse
“top 10 companies in the S&P are now two-thirds of the return...going into them irrespective of their quality or valuation”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 BF bearish Seth Klarman · video
Despite family-controlled governance offering some comfort, the same secular headwinds facing the spirits industry (Gen Z sobriety, Ozempic, cannabis) ultimately led to a full exit from the position
“we decided no, that there were too many secular, structural headwinds at the moment to own anything there”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 WPP bearish Seth Klarman · video
AI can replace advertising agencies in both creative production and media placement, eliminating the need for intermediaries and structurally impairing their business model
“Have a look at the prices of WPP and advertising agencies...do we really need them to devise our next advert?”
90d +17.1% · 180d +13.0%
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 OR owns Seth Klarman · video
Temporary overhang from a Bettencourt family governance dispute depressed the valuation of a high-quality consumer franchise, creating an opportunity to swap out of a less attractive holding at attractive relative prices
“we sold all of our Clorox and bought all of the L'Oreal on the spot”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 SPX bearish Seth Klarman · video
Sixteen years without a genuine economic downturn, passive index inflows now exceeding 50% of AUM are creating self-reinforcing momentum that concentrates two-thirds of market returns in the top-ten stocks regardless of valuation, closely mirroring dot-com…
“massively overdue, I think”
90d -1.4% · 180d -9.2%
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES SECTOR (DIAGEO, BROWN-FORMAN) bearish Seth Klarman · video
Gen Z drinking less, GLP-1/Ozempic users cut alcohol spending first per 150k-household dataset, and legal cannabis expansion constitute multi-factor secular headwinds; new management unlikely to overcome entrenched structural problems per the Buffett…
“too many secular, structural headwinds at the moment for us to own anything there”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2026-01-15 AI HYPERSCALERS / MAGNIFICENT SEVEN CAPEX THEME bearish Seth Klarman · video
Massive AI data-center capex is transforming formerly capital-light tech giants into capital-intensive businesses that no longer fit his quality criteria; either returns compress materially as capex rises, or AI monetization disappoints on the expected…
“either the returns will come down very significantly... or the promised land of AI won't arrive... and I think their share prices will collapse”
Terry Smith on quality investing & how patience is critical
2024-09-26 CONSUMER STAPLES bullish Terry Smith · video
Everyday necessities and luxuries — food, beverages, household products, pet food — generate consistent demand regardless of economic conditions, making the category a core investment area.
“anything in the consumer area is of interest to us basically”
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 V bullish Terry Smith · video
Visa has never lent a single cent in its entire history — it is a payment-network technology business, not a bank, and the market systematically mislabels it as a credit-card company, obscuring its true quality.
“do you know how much money Visa is lending in its entire history — not one single cent”
90d +18.3% · 180d +27.3% · 1y +25.0%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 GOOGL bullish Terry Smith · video
Alphabet owns search and online advertising at scale, giving it a durable network-effect moat that fits Fundsmith's quality-compounder framework.
90d +20.3% · 180d +5.0% · 1y +52.2%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 INDUSTRIALS bullish Terry Smith · video
Companies that place capital equipment (elevators, escalators, compressors, generators, testing gear) create a legally mandated, captive after-market for service, spares, and upgrades where the real economic profit is earned — not in the original equipment…
“the money is really made from selling you service spares upgrades software”
90d +0.2% · 180d +0.7% · 1y +15.1%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 MEDICAL DEVICES bullish Terry Smith · video
Companies making products that go inside the body — tubes, catheters, artificial knees, robotic surgery equipment — address structural healthcare demand with durable, recurring end-markets.
“medical technology is of interest to us people who make things that go into bodies”
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 ADP owns Terry Smith · video
ADP is a technology business providing payroll processing — a high-recurring-revenue, essential-service model that the market undervalues by categorising it as plain financial services.
“we own automatic data processing ADP sounds like a technology company doesn't it and it is”
90d +8.9% · 180d +10.2% · 1y +8.5%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 MSFT bullish Terry Smith · video
Microsoft's operating-system dominance and distributed (cloud) computing position give it recurring enterprise revenue and switching-cost protection consistent with Fundsmith's criteria.
90d +1.8% · 180d -8.0% · 1y +19.5%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 NVO bullish Terry Smith · video
Novo Nordisk is the one pharmaceutical holding within Fundsmith's medical-technology allocation, positioned around structural demand growth for weight-loss drugs.
“drugs in one case in terms of the weight loss drug manufacturer”
90d -29.5% · 180d -40.8% · 1y -54.4%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 META bullish Terry Smith · video
Meta dominates communications and online advertising, a structurally growing market, and sits within Fundsmith's technology sleeve as a high-quality compounder.
90d +6.3% · 180d +10.5% · 1y +31.4%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-09-26 AAPL bullish Terry Smith · video
Apple's mobile-device ecosystem creates deep consumer lock-in and recurring services revenue, making it a quality long-term compounder in Fundsmith's portfolio.
90d +14.0% · 180d -1.4% · 1y +12.8%
Risk VS Reward: Career Lessons from Terry Smith CEO of Fundsmith
2024-04-10 AAPL bullish Terry Smith · video
Apple's Services business — 800M users, 20%+ of revenue growing at 2x the handset rate with 78% gross margins — constitutes a genuine network-effect moat that justifies re-rating, and near-term handset weakness is creating a price entry point
“it's got 800 million people signed up, over 20% of revenues are from Services, growing at twice the rate of the handset business, 78% gross margins”
90d +36.5% · 180d +32.5% · 1y +14.0%
Terry Smith: How To Use Compound Interest to Grow Your Investments! | #1
2024-04-10 PG bullish Terry Smith · video
Post-Peltz board engagement, P&G shifted from pure pricing-led growth to volume-led growth, removing the structural flaw that caused Smith to sell; the operational improvement warrants re-entry
“Nelson Pelts went on the board and they somehow seem to have worked out that you need to sell more of stuff as well”
90d +6.0% · 180d +7.6% · 1y +6.6%
Terry Smith: How To Use Compound Interest to Grow Your Investments! | #1
2024-04-10 ULVR bullish Terry Smith · video
Unilever's 100+ year-old brands have survived every macro shock including wartime occupation, demonstrating the durable compounding power of intangible assets that cannot be replicated with debt financing
“Unilever survived World War II even though its Continental headquarters was overrun by the Germans and occupied — it survived”
Terry Smith: How To Use Compound Interest to Grow Your Investments! | #1
2022-04-03 CL bullish Terry Smith · video
Roughly 60% of the world does not yet use toothbrushes and toothpaste, giving Colgate a very long secular growth runway ahead of it.
“for people who are in this industry like Colgate there is clearly a very long runway for one of a better term ahead of them”
90d +6.4% · 180d -7.2% · 1y +0.9%
Terry Smith: Characteristics of a quality company (2022)
2022-04-03 COMPANION ANIMAL / PET CARE SPENDING bullish Terry Smith · video
Pets are on a secular journey to becoming full family members, driving persistently rising spending on food, health care, and diagnostics that shows no signs of plateauing.
“if I had to pick one area of secular growth which appears to have a very very long way ahead of it it's spending on companion animals or pets”
Terry Smith: Characteristics of a quality company (2022)
2022-04-03 AIRLINES SECTOR bearish Terry Smith · video
Airlines structurally never earn an adequate return on capital, making the sector a perpetual value-destroyer regardless of price paid.
“the airline industry never makes an adequate return on capital and it is just a machine for losing money”
Terry Smith: Characteristics of a quality company (2022)
2022-04-03 QUALITY FACTOR / HIGH-ROIC EQUITIES bullish Terry Smith · video
MSCI data back to 1996 shows the quality sub-index outperforms the broad world index in every rolling 10-year period, because high returns on capital compound value faster than the cost of capital over time.
“in any rolling 120 month period quality always outperforms the index”
Terry Smith: Characteristics of a quality company (2022)
2022-04-03 long MASTERCARD / long VISA / long PAYPAL / long SQUARE basket Terry Smith · video
Over 80% of global transaction volume is still cash, creating an enormous white space that all major cashless-payment networks will grow into regardless of which wins market share.
“over 80% of the world's volume of transactions is still done in cash”
Terry Smith: Characteristics of a quality company (2022)
2016-07-18 long JFC / long IN / long GRUPO NUTRESA (NUTRESA CO) / long VNM (+3 legs) basket Terry Smith · video
EM-listed consumer staples and food-service franchises with dominant local market positions are the direct beneficiaries of the rising EM middle class and are inaccessible via standard Western brokers, creating an inefficiency worth capturing through a…
TERRY SMITH: MASTER INVESTER 2014

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