Investors / stance tracking
What Chris Bloomstran is saying
President & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments
40 dated public stances tracked since 2021-07-21, most recently 2026-09-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chris Bloomstran's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chris Bloomstran is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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40
tracked stances
22
themes
0
side flips
2026-09-02
last heard
Returns 90d +3.1% (n=33) · 180d -2.7% (n=30) · 1y -6.8% (n=29)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK | 9 | 9 bullish | 2026-09-02 | |
| SPX | 5 | 5 bearish | 2026-09-02 | |
| OLN | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-09-02 | |
| AAPL | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-06-29 | |
| MSFT | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-09-02 | |
| ARK | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-09-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-09-02
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire functions as a growing-coupon bond yielding ~8-10% when bought intelligently, with per-share intrinsic value supported by a sum-of-parts analysis pointing to $522/B-share driven by compounding owned businesses (BNSF, BHE, insurance float) that have…
“The best way to explain Berkshire is to think of it as a bond that yields 8.3% today”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
DECK
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Deckers fell from $220 to ~$90 on Vietnam tariff fears but carries no debt, $1.4-1.5B net cash, a share count compressed from 240M to 150M since 2009, trades at 13x earnings, and the Hoka brand is compounding revenue in the mid-teens to 20% — tariff fears…
“We sold all of our Nike to finance the purchase of Deckers”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
OLN
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Olin (Olan in transcript) offers ~$2.5B of midcycle chlor-alkali cash flow against a ~$6B enterprise value, has compressed its share count 30% (165M to 115M) over five years, and trades in an oligopolistic industry being further tightened by Buffett's OxyChem…
“Buffett's pending purchase of OxyChem only tightened an already oligopolistic industry”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
MSFT
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Hyperscalers are spending $350-400B annually on AI-related capex against less than $40B of corresponding revenue, a ratio that rhymes with Williams Communications and Global Crossing in 2001; formerly capital-light income statements will absorb massive…
“The hyperscalers were spending on the order of 350 to 400 billion a year on AI capex against less than $40 billion of corresponding revenue”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
SPX
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
The index trades at 26x earnings with net margins near 12.8% — nearly double Buffett's postwar ceiling of 6.5% — while the Mag 7 trades at 35.5x and even the other 493 names trade at 22.5x against a long-run average of 16.5x; all five levers of his factor…
“The long-term average multiple on the market was 16 and a half. Price does matter.”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
long DECK / short NKE
pair
Chris Bloomstran · video
Nike at 30x earnings had exhausted its margin of safety while Deckers at 13x earnings with a debt-free balance sheet and accelerating Hoka brand offered the same consumer-footwear exposure at half the multiple — rotate capital from the expensive compounder to…
“Nike had reached 30 times earnings and he was not willing to hold it there”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-06-29
AAPL
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Apple trades at ~35x earnings but can grow its top line only 6-7% with no room for further margin expansion, the same valuation trap that made Coca-Cola a multi-decade compounder at just 4.5%/yr after Berkshire failed to sell
“the economics of Apple are not dissimilar from where Coca-Cola was... you don't pay 35 times earnings for those”
Buffett Turned $1.3 Billion Into $28 Billion — and Still Calls It a Mistake
2026-06-29
BRK
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire is cheap at current levels and Greg Abel will deploy $270B+ of excess cash far more aggressively than Buffett did in 2008-09, through share buybacks, an elephant acquisition, or heavy US equity buying in the next downturn
“We were buying at the same prices... we started buying for clients that didn't own enough Berkshire”
Buffett Turned $1.3 Billion Into $28 Billion — and Still Calls It a Mistake
2026-05-23
NVDA
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Nvidia's trillion-dollar valuation layered on cyclical semiconductor margins requires simultaneously doubling profit margins, sustaining uninterrupted growth, and repelling all competitors — leaving zero margin for error and programming the investment to…
“Paying a premium price for a great business leaves zero margin for error”
90d -0.1%
The Dual Margin of Safety: The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks&Life: Chris Bloomstran
2026-04-25
BRK
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~85 cents on the dollar to intrinsic value (~$570/B share) with earning power compounding 10-12% annually, while Greg Abel's resumption of buybacks at the current discount confirms management agreement on undervaluation
“I was buying it in August on the B shares at 460. I was buying it a couple weeks ago, 480.”
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
2026-04-25
SPX
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
The S&P 500 at 26x earnings against the second-highest profit margin in stock market history historically produces mediocre or negative decade-long returns, compounded by slowing real GDP per capita growth arguing for a structurally lower fair PE than the…
“High prices mixed with high margins are typically a recipe for mediocre returns or worse”
90d -3.6%
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
2026-04-25
Big Tech
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Massive AI CapEx commitments are converting net-cash cap-light businesses into EBITDA stories with rising depreciation and interest expense, making margin compression 'far more likely than not' while valuations at 30+ times earnings leave no room for that…
“These things are rapidly turning into EBITDA stories — they were net cash free cash generating machines that didn't take any capital.”
90d -3.1%
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
2024-04-20
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire's insurance surplus (~$270B, ~half of all global reinsurance capital) finances a common stock portfolio at equity returns (~10%) vs. competitors forced into bond portfolios at 4-5%, creating a durable multi-decade structural advantage that compounds…
“it doesn't matter if the Berkshire stock portfolio beats the S&P 500 or not — the embedded advantage is the size of their Surplus Capital”
How to Value Berkshire Hathaway 2024 w/ Chris Bloomstran (TIP625)
2023-12-04
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Fortress balance sheet compounding retained earnings at 10-12% returns on capital with no dividend drag, stock currently not expensive, and the conglomerate structure allows capital to be deployed opportunistically across insurance float, equities, and…
“it's almost like a bond that's yielding 10 to 12% when you buy it at the right prices extremely tax efficient”
Interview with Chris Bloomstran
2023-12-04
MSFT
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Profit margins have recovered to mid-30s%, nearly matching the 1999 peak that preceded 15 years of subpar shareholder returns, suggesting the stock has again gotten ahead of intrinsic value
“the stock's gotten ahead more likely than not ahead of itself again”
90d -12.6% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -17.7%
Interview with Chris Bloomstran
2023-12-04
AAPL
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
The basket added 10 full S&P percentage points in one year and now trades above 30x earnings in aggregate, mirroring the late-1990s concentration of overvaluation where high-P/S stocks subsequently suffered catastrophic returns; four of the seven are…
“my bet would be that those 493 for the next decade decade and a half outperform the seven only for valuation”
90d +7.4% · 180d -2.7% · 1y -28.7%
Interview with Chris Bloomstran
2023-09-16
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire's diversified earnings streams (railroad, energy, manufacturing, insurance float, equity portfolio) should compound at 10-12% annually at a modest premium to book value while the S&P at 21-22x earnings with peaky margins likely returns only 5-6%…
“Berkshire's hands down an easy bet from evaluation climate like you have today”
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
2023-09-16
ARK
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Companies trading at ridiculous multiples to sales with no current or near-term profits, where almost everything must go right to ever justify valuation, are structurally mispriced regardless of narrative quality
“I'd always be careful of paying big multiples to sales for profitless businesses”
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
2023-09-16
OLN
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Post Dow-DuPont merger consolidation made Olin the low-cost global Chlor-Alkali producer; China cannot compete due to natural gas feedstock disadvantage; no new industry capacity being built; management aggressively retiring shares (165M to 127M) at ~5x…
“The stock at 7 billion cap...is still trading at kind of a mid single digit to what I'd call free cash”
90d +6.3% · 180d +16.6% · 1y -12.0%
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
2023-06-12
SPX
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Profit margins of 13.3% are artificially elevated by ~3pts from cheap corporate debt and ~1pt from the 2017 tax cut—both reversing—while P/E multiples at 23.6x are well above the 15.5x long-run average, meaning passive investors face simultaneous margin and…
“I think being passive is going to be a disaster”
90d -3.8% · 180d -7.3% · 1y -25.6%
Investing Lessons From The World’s #1 Berkshire Hathaway Expert – Chris Bloomstran - Ep 19
2023-06-12
HEINEKEN
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Multinationals like Heineken that deploy capital into emerging markets at roughly 20% returns on capital provide EM growth exposure while sidestepping the political and rule-of-law risks of direct investment in countries like Russia or China
“I'd rather get my emerging market growth with companies that are building plants Heineken for example”
Investing Lessons From The World’s #1 Berkshire Hathaway Expert – Chris Bloomstran - Ep 19
2023-06-12
RUSSIAN AND CHINESE EQUITIES (DIRECT INVESTMENT)
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Absence of reliable rule of law and political infrastructure in Russia and China creates permanent capital risk regardless of apparent upside, as illustrated concretely by Kinross Gold losing its Russian reserves in a fire sale
“I would never ever ever directly invest a dollar in a company headquartered in Russia or in China”
Investing Lessons From The World’s #1 Berkshire Hathaway Expert – Chris Bloomstran - Ep 19
2023-03-28
USTS
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
T-bills carry zero credit risk while broker-swept bank deposits carry meaningful systemic risk after 500bps of Fed hikes, and the incremental yield pickup from bank sweeps does not compensate for that credit exposure
“we're just buying t-bills on behalf of our client because they really were scared about having money in the banking system”
90d -0.6% · 180d -5.6% · 1y -0.9%
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
2023-03-28
DG
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Dollar General offers cheaper, growing assets relative to energy cyclicals that lack durable long-term growth, making it the preferred destination for capital rotating out of now-expensive energy names
“I've been adding to things like Dollar General”
90d -19.2% · 180d -47.9% · 1y -24.7%
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
2023-03-28
VLO
neutral
Chris Bloomstran · video
Valero has recovered from deeply discounted levels so the margin of safety has narrowed, and better growing alternatives exist, warranting a trim even as refining economics remain temporarily favorable
“trim Exxon Mobil and trim Valero for example simply because I've got you know better opportunities and better assets now that are cheaper and growing”
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
2022-04-27
BRK
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~13x earnings with largely unlevered balance sheet; sum-of-parts fair value exceeds $900B market cap, and it leads the energy transition through renewable-heavy utilities while generating $25-30B annually for capital allocation
“berkshire...sits at the top of the portfolio it was trading at 13 to earnings”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
OLN
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Olin is the lowest-cost chloroalkali producer in an industry where competitors are rationally avoiding new capacity additions; trading at ~3-4x this year's EBITDA of $2.6B on a ~$10B market cap, with buybacks aggressive enough to take the company private in…
“I'm buying olin at a few points below where we are today...they could take the company private at four to five years the stock's that cheap”
90d -6.7% · 180d -7.5% · 1y +6.1%
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
SPX
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Decomposition of S&P 500 returns shows starting conditions of record 13.4% profit margins, mid-20s P/E, and 1.3% dividend yield leave no realistic path to >5% nominal returns over the next decade without unprecedented further multiple or margin expansion
“my high side is five...you layer in some margin contraction...you easily get to zero”
90d +5.9% · 180d +8.4% · 1y -0.5%
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
HEIA
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Heineken provides emerging market (especially sub-Saharan Africa) revenue and growth exposure through a European-domiciled company with rule-of-law jurisdiction, having grown EM operating cash flows from one-third to two-thirds of the total without direct…
“i've got heineken in the portfolio and i'm getting a lot of emerging market exposure and growth when they build a plant in sub-saharan africa”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
VIE
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
VIE structures like Alibaba ADRs convey no actual claim on the underlying company's equity, China has proven willingness to change rules mid-game against investors, and a Taiwan conflict scenario represents unrecoverable permanent capital loss
“you don't own the company...you really do not have a claim against the equity capital of alibaba and they have proven to change the game midstream against you”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
long HFC / long VLO
basket
Chris Bloomstran · video
Structurally scarce U.S. refining capacity — no new refineries being built, European majors divesting assets — creates durable high crack spreads; both are low-cost inland/regional operators also converting capacity to renewable diesel for regulatory tailwinds
“we're not going to build another refinery in this country...last year holly bought a refinery from shell...they paid 350 million dollars for an asset that averages about 250 million dollars in cash flow per year”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-10
SPX
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
With profit margins at all-time highs (13.4%), PE at 23.6x, and dividend yield compressed to 1.3%, there is no realistic combination of the five return drivers (sales growth, share count, margin, multiple, dividend) that gets forward 10-year returns above…
“my guess would be five would be a best case for the S&P littered with some downturns like we had for that decade post 1999”
90d +12.3% · 180d +16.8% · 1y +5.3%
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
2022-04-10
OIL
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Structural supply shortage from underinvestment, refining capacity conversion to renewable diesel, labor and materials constraints, and the intermittency of renewables requiring excess conventional capacity will keep oil at $100+ per barrel for a persistent…
“it's not going to drop much lower than $90, which is kind of where it was before this latest crisis”
90d +8.2% · 180d +3.9% · 1y -3.5%
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
2021-09-14
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~14x earnings vs. the S&P at mid-to-high multiples, buys back shares only at genuine discounts to intrinsic value, has fort-knox capital with $900B+ in assets, zero stock-option dilution, and a durable culture that survives post-Buffett…
“I'm very comfortable with what berkshire looks like post-war”
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-09-14
SBUX
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Superior unit economics, a brand that earns luxury-goods-style gross margins, and a decade-long runway to double store count (half in China) justify ownership, though valuation has run ahead requiring a trim
“we're huge fans of starbucks, we own it and I own a lot of it”
90d -2.4% · 180d -32.7% · 1y -20.3%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-09-14
NKE
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Nike's shift from wholesale partners to direct-to-consumer app sales structurally doubles profitability through a far higher margin structure, a competitive dynamic that erodes the position of legacy retail partners at the same time
“we figured out pretty early on that it's going to be a way more profitable business”
90d +5.3% · 180d -25.6% · 1y -32.0%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-09-14
HOOD
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Robinhood extracts ~3% annually from customer assets vs. Schwab's ~25bps, generates 80% of revenue from selling order flow in options and crypto, misaligns entirely with customer wealth-building, and is not a durable business at its market cap — but a short…
“I wouldn't touch either side of Robin Hood today”
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-09-14
FL
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Foot Locker's largest supplier (Nike) is systematically redirecting volume to its own D2C channel, making ownership unattractive even at a low price because the competitive position is structurally deteriorating
“when your largest supplier is moving down a different distribution channel, ownership of something like that even at a very low price becomes less interesting”
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-07-21
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at a low-teens multiple on ~$45B in normalized earning power with net cash on the balance sheet, active buybacks signaling management's own undervaluation view, and a fortress capital structure that can compound at 10%+ annually for the next…
“making 10 plus percent a year for the next 10 to 15 years with the way they operate the business... the stock's just too cheap”
Price Matters with Chris Bloomstran, President and CIO Semper Augustus Investments Group
2021-07-21
TSLA
short
Chris Bloomstran · video
ARK's $3,000 price target implies a ~$3T market cap on a company doing $31B in revenue, resting on robo-taxi and insurance businesses that don't yet exist, while ignoring massive ongoing capex needs, option dilution that will inflate share count well above…
“i do have a little short position on tesla... you're not going to get to a three trillion dollar market cap on a company doing 30 billion in revenues today in four years”
90d -31.9% · 180d -57.3% · 1y -24.4%
Price Matters with Chris Bloomstran, President and CIO Semper Augustus Investments Group
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