Investors / stance tracking
What Chris Bloomstran is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowPresident & CIO, Semper Augustus Investments
59 dated public stances tracked since 2020-05-18, most recently 2026-09-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chris Bloomstran's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chris Bloomstran is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
59
tracked stances
30
themes
0
side flips
2026-09-02
last heard
Returns 90d +4.6% 53% correct · 34 calls · 180d +1.2% 44% correct · 32 calls · 1y -1.6% 38% correct · 29 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | AAPL | bearish | -20.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-23 | NVDA | bearish | -0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | SPX | bearish | -3.6% | -7.4% | — |
| 2026-04-25 | Big Tech | bearish | -3.1% | -6.3% | — |
| 2024-04-20 | SPX | bearish | -10.2% | -17.3% | -4.1% |
| 2024-04-20 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -5.5% | -7.5% | -0.7% |
| 2024-04-20 | DG | bullish | -13.9% | -42.0% | -31.3% |
| 2023-12-04 | MSFT | bearish | -12.6% | -12.4% | -17.7% |
| 2023-12-04 | AAPL | bearish | +7.4% | -2.7% | -28.7% |
| 2023-09-16 | TSLA | bearish | +4.4% | +38.7% | +14.5% |
| 2023-09-16 | OLN | bullish | +6.3% | +16.6% | -12.0% |
| 2023-09-16 | NVDA | bearish | -11.2% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023-09-16 | DG | owns | +15.0% | +33.3% | -23.2% |
| 2023-03-28 | USTS | owns | -0.6% | -5.6% | -0.9% |
| 2023-03-28 | SPX | bearish | -9.5% | -10.1% | -34.2% |
| 2023-03-28 | DG | owns | -19.2% | -47.9% | -24.7% |
| 2022-04-27 | OLN | owns | -6.7% | -7.5% | +6.1% |
| 2022-04-10 | SPX | bearish | +12.3% | +16.8% | +5.3% |
| 2022-04-10 | OIL | bullish | +8.2% | +3.9% | -3.5% |
| 2021-10-28 | TWTR | bearish | +38.1% | +8.5% | — |
| 2021-10-28 | TSLA | bearish | +13.0% | +18.6% | +36.3% |
| 2021-10-28 | SPX | bearish | +5.1% | +8.6% | +13.8% |
| 2021-10-28 | SHOP | bearish | +40.4% | +70.6% | +76.5% |
| 2021-10-28 | ENERGY | owns | +14.2% | +30.4% | +61.3% |
| 2021-10-28 | COST | bearish | +1.4% | -13.1% | -4.8% |
| 2021-10-28 | ARKK | bearish | +42.8% | +58.0% | +67.8% |
| 2021-09-14 | SBUX | owns | -2.4% | -32.7% | -20.3% |
| 2021-09-14 | NKE | bullish | +5.3% | -25.6% | -32.0% |
| 2021-09-14 | HOOD | bearish | +50.8% | +73.4% | +73.1% |
| 2021-09-14 | FL | bearish | +14.7% | +39.0% | +21.2% |
| 2021-04-25 | TSLA | bearish | +10.9% | -23.2% | -35.2% |
| 2021-04-25 | AAPL | bearish | -10.8% | -10.7% | -21.6% |
| 2020-05-18 | SPX | bearish | -15.1% | -24.0% | -41.9% |
| 2020-05-18 | DG | bullish | +10.5% | +17.5% | +13.4% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK | 9 | 9 bullish | 2026-09-02 | |
| SPX | 7 | 7 bearish | 2026-09-02 | |
| AAPL | 4 | 3 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-06-29 | |
| DG | 4 | 4 bullish | 2024-04-20 | |
| OLN | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-09-02 | |
| TSLA | 3 | 3 bearish | 2023-09-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-09-02
long DECK / short NKE
pair
Chris Bloomstran · video
Nike at 30x earnings had exhausted its margin of safety while Deckers at 13x earnings with a debt-free balance sheet and accelerating Hoka brand offered the same consumer-footwear exposure at half the multiple — rotate capital from the expensive compounder to…
“Nike had reached 30 times earnings and he was not willing to hold it there”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
2026-09-02
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire functions as a growing-coupon bond yielding ~8-10% when bought intelligently, with per-share intrinsic value supported by a sum-of-parts analysis pointing to $522/B-share driven by compounding owned businesses (BNSF, BHE, insurance float) that have…
“The best way to explain Berkshire is to think of it as a bond that yields 8.3% today”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
Olin (Olan in transcript) offers ~$2.5B of midcycle chlor-alkali cash flow against a ~$6B enterprise value, has compressed its share count 30% (165M to 115M) over five years, and trades in an oligopolistic industry being further tightened by Buffett's OxyChem…
“Buffett's pending purchase of OxyChem only tightened an already oligopolistic industry”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
The index trades at 26x earnings with net margins near 12.8% — nearly double Buffett's postwar ceiling of 6.5% — while the Mag 7 trades at 35.5x and even the other 493 names trade at 22.5x against a long-run average of 16.5x; all five levers of his factor…
“The long-term average multiple on the market was 16 and a half. Price does matter.”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
Hyperscalers are spending $350-400B annually on AI-related capex against less than $40B of corresponding revenue, a ratio that rhymes with Williams Communications and Global Crossing in 2001; formerly capital-light income statements will absorb massive…
“The hyperscalers were spending on the order of 350 to 400 billion a year on AI capex against less than $40 billion of corresponding revenue”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
Deckers fell from $220 to ~$90 on Vietnam tariff fears but carries no debt, $1.4-1.5B net cash, a share count compressed from 240M to 150M since 2009, trades at 13x earnings, and the Hoka brand is compounding revenue in the mid-teens to 20% — tariff fears…
“We sold all of our Nike to finance the purchase of Deckers”
Chris Bloomstran: The Flawed Bulb
Apple trades at ~35x earnings but can grow its top line only 6-7% with no room for further margin expansion, the same valuation trap that made Coca-Cola a multi-decade compounder at just 4.5%/yr after Berkshire failed to sell
“the economics of Apple are not dissimilar from where Coca-Cola was... you don't pay 35 times earnings for those”
90d -20.2%
Buffett Turned $1.3 Billion Into $28 Billion — and Still Calls It a Mistake
Nvidia's trillion-dollar valuation layered on cyclical semiconductor margins requires simultaneously doubling profit margins, sustaining uninterrupted growth, and repelling all competitors — leaving zero margin for error and programming the investment to…
“Paying a premium price for a great business leaves zero margin for error”
90d -0.1%
The Dual Margin of Safety: The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks&Life: Chris Bloomstran
2026-04-25
BRK
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~85 cents on the dollar to intrinsic value (~$570/B share) with earning power compounding 10-12% annually, while Greg Abel's resumption of buybacks at the current discount confirms management agreement on undervaluation
“I was buying it in August on the B shares at 460. I was buying it a couple weeks ago, 480.”
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
Said again: 2026-06-29 (Chris Bloomstran)
The S&P 500 at 26x earnings against the second-highest profit margin in stock market history historically produces mediocre or negative decade-long returns, compounded by slowing real GDP per capita growth arguing for a structurally lower fair PE than the…
“High prices mixed with high margins are typically a recipe for mediocre returns or worse”
90d -3.6% · 180d -7.4%
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
2026-04-25
Big Tech
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Massive AI CapEx commitments are converting net-cash cap-light businesses into EBITDA stories with rising depreciation and interest expense, making margin compression 'far more likely than not' while valuations at 30+ times earnings leave no room for that…
“These things are rapidly turning into EBITDA stories — they were net cash free cash generating machines that didn't take any capital.”
90d -3.1% · 180d -6.3%
Is Berkshire Hathaway Undervalued Right Now? (Chris Bloomstran Explains) (TIP810)
2024-04-20
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire's insurance surplus (~$270B, ~half of all global reinsurance capital) finances a common stock portfolio at equity returns (~10%) vs. competitors forced into bond portfolios at 4-5%, creating a durable multi-decade structural advantage that compounds…
“it doesn't matter if the Berkshire stock portfolio beats the S&P 500 or not — the embedded advantage is the size of their Surplus Capital”
How to Value Berkshire Hathaway 2024 w/ Chris Bloomstran (TIP625)
Record 13.3% profit margins and a ~23x trailing PE applied simultaneously create a secular valuation peak analogous to 2000 and 1929; the five-factor return math yields 4-5% forward 10-year returns under generous assumptions and 0% or negative if margins and…
“I think 2021 was a secular peak — it'll go down and rival 2000, 1929, the late 1960s”
90d -10.2% · 180d -17.3% · 1y -4.1%
How to Value Berkshire Hathaway 2024 w/ Chris Bloomstran (TIP625)
Dollar General's operational issues (elevated labor costs, execution stumbles) are fixable and the stock reached a level of cheapness that warranted rebuilding to a 10% portfolio position, with profitability assessment already haircut to allow for…
“we think the operational issues they've been dealing with are generally fixable”
90d -13.9% · 180d -42.0% · 1y -31.3%
How to Value Berkshire Hathaway 2024 w/ Chris Bloomstran (TIP625)
2024-04-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
At 4.5% the 30-year treasury compounds interest at fixed income yields while a good business retained earnings can reinvest at 15%+, making bonds a structurally inferior asset class that costs institutions hundreds of basis points per decade versus owning…
“fixed income generally is a terrible asset class”
90d -5.5% · 180d -7.5% · 1y -0.7%
How to Value Berkshire Hathaway 2024 w/ Chris Bloomstran (TIP625)
Profit margins have recovered to mid-30s%, nearly matching the 1999 peak that preceded 15 years of subpar shareholder returns, suggesting the stock has again gotten ahead of intrinsic value
“the stock's gotten ahead more likely than not ahead of itself again”
90d -12.6% · 180d -12.4% · 1y -17.7%
Interview with Chris Bloomstran
The basket added 10 full S&P percentage points in one year and now trades above 30x earnings in aggregate, mirroring the late-1990s concentration of overvaluation where high-P/S stocks subsequently suffered catastrophic returns; four of the seven are…
“my bet would be that those 493 for the next decade decade and a half outperform the seven only for valuation”
90d +7.4% · 180d -2.7% · 1y -28.7%
Interview with Chris Bloomstran
2023-09-16
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire's diversified earnings streams (railroad, energy, manufacturing, insurance float, equity portfolio) should compound at 10-12% annually at a modest premium to book value while the S&P at 21-22x earnings with peaky margins likely returns only 5-6%…
“Berkshire's hands down an easy bet from evaluation climate like you have today”
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
Said again: 2023-12-04 (Chris Bloomstran)
At approaching $1T market cap, Tesla's valuation embeds implausible outcomes — FSD regulatory approval, robotaxi margin dominance, insurance market capture rivaling Geico — while management's endorsement of Arc's $7-9T bull case constitutes puffery that harms…
“I'd steer as far away from a megalomaniac at the helm of the business”
90d +4.4% · 180d +38.7% · 1y +14.5%
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
Post Dow-DuPont merger consolidation made Olin the low-cost global Chlor-Alkali producer; China cannot compete due to natural gas feedstock disadvantage; no new industry capacity being built; management aggressively retiring shares (165M to 127M) at ~5x…
“The stock at 7 billion cap...is still trading at kind of a mid single digit to what I'd call free cash”
90d +6.3% · 180d +16.6% · 1y -12.0%
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
Said again: 2023-12-04 (Chris Bloomstran)
At ~$1.2T market cap on $25B trailing revenue, achieving even a 10% annual return requires margins to double to 40%+ AND sustained 20% annual revenue growth for a decade with no competitive response from AMD and others — conditions requiring everything to go…
“today's investor in Nvidia will lose money over the next 15 years”
90d -11.2% · 180d -100.0% · 1y -100.0%
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
2023-09-16
ARK
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Companies trading at ridiculous multiples to sales with no current or near-term profits, where almost everything must go right to ever justify valuation, are structurally mispriced regardless of narrative quality
“I'd always be careful of paying big multiples to sales for profitless businesses”
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
Rural footprint and low-income customer base create a durable moat against internet disruption; current operational headwinds (SNAP normalization, store-format transition) are transitory and have reset the stock to its cheapest portfolio valuation in years…
“I've just made Dollar General a very big position here in the last month month and a half”
90d +15.0% · 180d +33.3% · 1y -23.2%
The Vigilant Investor’s Guide to Success in Stocks & Life w/ Chris Bloomstran (RWH032)
2023-06-12
HEINEKEN
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Multinationals like Heineken that deploy capital into emerging markets at roughly 20% returns on capital provide EM growth exposure while sidestepping the political and rule-of-law risks of direct investment in countries like Russia or China
“I'd rather get my emerging market growth with companies that are building plants Heineken for example”
Investing Lessons From The World’s #1 Berkshire Hathaway Expert – Chris Bloomstran - Ep 19
2023-06-12
RUSSIAN AND CHINESE EQUITIES (DIRECT INVESTMENT)
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Absence of reliable rule of law and political infrastructure in Russia and China creates permanent capital risk regardless of apparent upside, as illustrated concretely by Kinross Gold losing its Russian reserves in a fire sale
“I would never ever ever directly invest a dollar in a company headquartered in Russia or in China”
Investing Lessons From The World’s #1 Berkshire Hathaway Expert – Chris Bloomstran - Ep 19
2023-04-21
US OIL REFINERS
bullish
Business Breakdowns · video
Structural scarcity of global refining capacity — US refiners cut from ~250 to 127 with ~3 million barrels of net global capacity closed since 2019, new construction near-impossible due to regulation and green policy, yet jet fuel, plastics, asphalt, and…
“this is not a Putin inflation that we've got this is a scarcity of assets”
Berkshire Hathaway: The Incomparable Compounder - [Business Breakdowns, EP. 63]
2023-03-28
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at a 7% earnings yield underpinned by overcapitalized insurance, a compounding energy reinvestment engine subsidized by taxpayers, and durable operating earnings — making it far superior to 4% two-year Treasuries for long-term capital…
“if you buy the stock intelligently and the thing earns 10 and a half or 11 or 12 on equity... how much better is that than buying a two-year treasury at four percent”
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
Said again: 2023-04-21 (Business Breakdowns)
US equities remain well above secular lows on every valuation metric — Shiller PE, market cap/GDP, Tobin's Q — after only a partial correction, with earnings under structural pressure from margin compression, weakening volumes, and a tightening Fed that has…
“we still have an awful lot of excesses to cleanse the overall market remains expensive nowhere near what you'd call a secular low”
90d -9.5% · 180d -10.1% · 1y -34.2%
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
Said again: 2023-06-12 (Chris Bloomstran)
T-bills carry zero credit risk while broker-swept bank deposits carry meaningful systemic risk after 500bps of Fed hikes, and the incremental yield pickup from bank sweeps does not compensate for that credit exposure
“we're just buying t-bills on behalf of our client because they really were scared about having money in the banking system”
90d -0.6% · 180d -5.6% · 1y -0.9%
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
Dollar General offers cheaper, growing assets relative to energy cyclicals that lack durable long-term growth, making it the preferred destination for capital rotating out of now-expensive energy names
“I've been adding to things like Dollar General”
90d -19.2% · 180d -47.9% · 1y -24.7%
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
Valero has recovered from deeply discounted levels so the margin of safety has narrowed, and better growing alternatives exist, warranting a trim even as refining economics remain temporarily favorable
“trim Exxon Mobil and trim Valero for example simply because I've got you know better opportunities and better assets now that are cheaper and growing”
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
Exxon is no longer cheap enough to justify its weighting — better, growing assets like Dollar General now offer superior risk-adjusted returns, so the position is being trimmed even though near-term cash flows remain strong
“I've got to put an order in to trim Exxon Mobil”
Value After Hours S05 E12 Christopher Bloomstran, Berkshire Hathaway Review and State of Value
2022-04-27
long HFC / long VLO
basket
Chris Bloomstran · video
Structurally scarce U.S. refining capacity — no new refineries being built, European majors divesting assets — creates durable high crack spreads; both are low-cost inland/regional operators also converting capacity to renewable diesel for regulatory tailwinds
“we're not going to build another refinery in this country...last year holly bought a refinery from shell...they paid 350 million dollars for an asset that averages about 250 million dollars in cash flow per year”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
Olin is the lowest-cost chloroalkali producer in an industry where competitors are rationally avoiding new capacity additions; trading at ~3-4x this year's EBITDA of $2.6B on a ~$10B market cap, with buybacks aggressive enough to take the company private in…
“I'm buying olin at a few points below where we are today...they could take the company private at four to five years the stock's that cheap”
90d -6.7% · 180d -7.5% · 1y +6.1%
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
HEIA
owns
Chris Bloomstran · video
Heineken provides emerging market (especially sub-Saharan Africa) revenue and growth exposure through a European-domiciled company with rule-of-law jurisdiction, having grown EM operating cash flows from one-third to two-thirds of the total without direct…
“i've got heineken in the portfolio and i'm getting a lot of emerging market exposure and growth when they build a plant in sub-saharan africa”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-27
VIE
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
VIE structures like Alibaba ADRs convey no actual claim on the underlying company's equity, China has proven willingness to change rules mid-game against investors, and a Taiwan conflict scenario represents unrecoverable permanent capital loss
“you don't own the company...you really do not have a claim against the equity capital of alibaba and they have proven to change the game midstream against you”
Chris Bloomstran, Semper Augustus– Buffett, Berkshire, & Investing During The Energy Transition
2022-04-10
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire's intrinsic value is approximately $949B (~$429/B share), underpinned by ~$48B in normalized economic earnings capitalized at 18x, fortress balance sheet with no duration risk, and superior capital redeployment discipline versus peers
“I get to an intrinsic of about a little over $600,000 on the A shares and a little over $400 on the B shares”
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
Said again: 2022-04-27 (Chris Bloomstran)
With profit margins at all-time highs (13.4%), PE at 23.6x, and dividend yield compressed to 1.3%, there is no realistic combination of the five return drivers (sales growth, share count, margin, multiple, dividend) that gets forward 10-year returns above…
“my guess would be five would be a best case for the S&P littered with some downturns like we had for that decade post 1999”
90d +12.3% · 180d +16.8% · 1y +5.3%
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
Said again: 2022-04-27 (Chris Bloomstran)
Structural supply shortage from underinvestment, refining capacity conversion to renewable diesel, labor and materials constraints, and the intermittency of renewables requiring excess conventional capacity will keep oil at $100+ per barrel for a persistent…
“it's not going to drop much lower than $90, which is kind of where it was before this latest crisis”
90d +8.2% · 180d +3.9% · 1y -3.5%
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
After a decade of 30% annual returns driven by multiple expansion (14x→33x) and 17% annual revenue growth, the group now trades at 30-70x earnings with margins near peak and revenue growth slowing due to the law of large numbers, making a repeat performance…
“they're five of the best businesses the world's ever seen. But again, I think it's going to be tough to grow the margin of the multiples much from here”
438 TIP. Berkshire Hathaway Masterclass w/ Chris Bloomstran
ARK's $3,000 price target is mathematically impossible when revenues from each Tesla subsidiary are modeled honestly, and Elon Musk's two compensation grants already awarded him roughly 20% of the company, embedding massive future dilution into the stock
“there's just no mathematical no realistic way to get there on a business fundamental case”
90d +13.0% · 180d +18.6% · 1y +36.3%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
The S&P 500 is as expensive as at the 2000, 1929, and 1968 peaks—with profit margins at record highs leaving no room for expansion, corporate leverage at all-time highs, and structural GDP growth impaired by 400% total-credit-market-debt-to-GDP—implying 4-6%…
“they're not gonna and i can tell you they're not gonna look like the last ten”
90d +5.1% · 180d +8.6% · 1y +13.8%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
2021-10-28
US REFINERS
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
No new refinery will ever be built in the US or Europe due to political and regulatory opposition, creating permanent asset scarcity while the number of operating refineries has been cut in half since 1981 and majors continue selling existing assets at…
“nobody in europe nobody in the united states is ever going to build another refinery”
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
2021-10-28
TWTR
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Twitter is already priced at 20-25x what it could earn in the most optimistic 10-year scenario while embedded RSU and option dilution of 40-50% over that decade further destroys per-share value, making even a best-case outcome a mid-single-digit annual return
“you've already priced the thing for where it best case could kind of be 10 years from now”
90d +38.1% · 180d +8.5%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
ARK Innovation's portfolio re-rated from 3-5x sales historically to 15x sales post-2020, and a reversion to prior valuations implies a 65-80% decline; the dynamic is nearly identical to the Janus funds in 1999-2000 where most money flowed in near the peak and…
“you take the price back down to three to five times that's a 65 to an 80 percent decline”
90d +42.8% · 180d +58.0% · 1y +67.8%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
Costco trades at ~100% of sales and ~45x earnings—as expensive as it has ever been—while square footage growth is decelerating from 7.5% to 2.5-3.5%, making the stock an opportunity cost drag relative to energy assets available at 2-4x EBITDA
“it's as expensive as it's ever been and it's not going to grow as fast”
90d +1.4% · 180d -13.1% · 1y -4.8%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
Shopify trades at 10-30x revenues with no demonstrated profit path, placing it in the same category as the dot-com era internet companies that were valued on the .com suffix and ultimately flamed out
“when you're paying you know 10 times 20 times 30 times revenues for companies that don't generate a profit it's a tough road to hoe”
90d +40.4% · 180d +70.6% · 1y +76.5%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
ESG-driven majors like Shell are selling productive energy assets at 2-4x EBITDA, creating a scarcity of cash-generating assets whose break-evens are very short at today's prices while the realistic timeline for full decarbonization is far longer than the…
“i've got big concentration in energy today”
90d +14.2% · 180d +30.4% · 1y +61.3%
Chris Bloomstran - Taking Principled Stances
2021-09-14
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~14x earnings vs. the S&P at mid-to-high multiples, buys back shares only at genuine discounts to intrinsic value, has fort-knox capital with $900B+ in assets, zero stock-option dilution, and a durable culture that survives post-Buffett…
“I'm very comfortable with what berkshire looks like post-war”
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
Said again: 2021-10-28 (Chris Bloomstran)
Superior unit economics, a brand that earns luxury-goods-style gross margins, and a decade-long runway to double store count (half in China) justify ownership, though valuation has run ahead requiring a trim
“we're huge fans of starbucks, we own it and I own a lot of it”
90d -2.4% · 180d -32.7% · 1y -20.3%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
Nike's shift from wholesale partners to direct-to-consumer app sales structurally doubles profitability through a far higher margin structure, a competitive dynamic that erodes the position of legacy retail partners at the same time
“we figured out pretty early on that it's going to be a way more profitable business”
90d +5.3% · 180d -25.6% · 1y -32.0%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
Robinhood extracts ~3% annually from customer assets vs. Schwab's ~25bps, generates 80% of revenue from selling order flow in options and crypto, misaligns entirely with customer wealth-building, and is not a durable business at its market cap — but a short…
“I wouldn't touch either side of Robin Hood today”
90d +50.8% · 180d +73.4% · 1y +73.1%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-09-14
FL
bearish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Foot Locker's largest supplier (Nike) is systematically redirecting volume to its own D2C channel, making ownership unattractive even at a low price because the competitive position is structurally deteriorating
“when your largest supplier is moving down a different distribution channel, ownership of something like that even at a very low price becomes less interesting”
90d +14.7% · 180d +39.0% · 1y +21.2%
#171: Chris Bloomstran - President & CIO at Semper Augustus - Finding Value in the Public Markets
2021-04-25
BRK
bullish
Chris Bloomstran · video
Berkshire trades at ~$257 vs. Bloomstran's intrinsic value estimate of $325–$365 per B-share, underpinned by normalized earnings power of ~$42B, conservatively appraised operating businesses (BNSF alone worth $160–170B publicly vs. his $110B appraisal), and…
“book value per share grew by closer to 11 intrinsic value grew by closer to 11 as long as the share price stays cheap enough”
TIP346: Masterclass In Valuation W/ Chris Bloomstran
Said again: 2021-07-21 (Chris Bloomstran)
Tesla's valuation is stretched in a manner resembling late-1990s tech euphoria, with retail bulls exhibiting the same behavior as dot-com-era investors and fundamentals failing to justify the price
“i've made the contra case that valuations in a lot of places are stretched that resembled kind of what the tech bulls were going through in the late 90s”
90d +10.9% · 180d -23.2% · 1y -35.2%
TIP346: Masterclass In Valuation W/ Chris Bloomstran
Said again: 2021-07-21 (Chris Bloomstran)
Apple is 'extremely expensive' at mid-30x earnings versus the 12–13x at which Berkshire originally bought it, prompting Bloomstran to subtract nearly $40B from his insurance-portfolio valuation to reflect overvaluation of the near-half-of-portfolio position
“i find the stock overvalued you know perhaps the what i guess some would call nominal sales but taking 11 billion dollars off the table”
90d -10.8% · 180d -10.7% · 1y -21.6%
TIP346: Masterclass In Valuation W/ Chris Bloomstran
2020-05-18
BRK
bullish
The Acquirers Podcast · video
Three fortress businesses — insurance (45% of value, $200B+ statutory capital), BNSF rail, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy — represent 75% of intrinsic value and are highly durable, yet the stock trades at roughly 70 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value and…
“the stock is wildly undervalued today given what I think is the durability of a lot of the earning power”
Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Buffett and Berkshire with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
S&P 500 normalized earnings power is roughly $100–$110/unit implying fair value of $1,500–$1,650, while the index trades near $3,000; the current secular peak rivals 1929 and 2000 on fundamental yardsticks, and zero interest rates don't justify high multiples…
“fair value somewhere between 1500 and 1650 — that's a long way to go”
90d -15.1% · 180d -24.0% · 1y -41.9%
Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Buffett and Berkshire with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
Dollar General is a counter-cyclical compounder whose core $30K median-household-income customer increases reliance on the chain during downturns, pushing food-stamp revenue from ~1% to 8–9% of sales and making the business demonstrably stronger in a…
“Dollar General is a better business and a bad economy”
90d +10.5% · 180d +17.5% · 1y +13.4%
Tulip Mania: Chris Bloomstran on Buffett and Berkshire with Tobias Carlisle on The Acquirers Podcast
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click