Investors / stance tracking
What Michael Batnick is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth
46 dated public stances tracked since 2024-11-13, most recently 2026-10-13. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Batnick's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Batnick is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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46
tracked stances
32
themes
7
side flips
2026-10-13
last heard
Returns 90d +4.0% 66% correct · 38 calls · 180d +12.8% 55% correct · 29 calls · 1y +35.2% 69% correct · 26 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | NKE | bearish | +9.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | SPX | bullish | +3.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | NVDA | bearish | -7.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-01 | MSFT | owns | +32.7% | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | NFLX | bullish | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | European Equities | bullish | +1.1% | — | — |
| 2026-06-10 | BITCOIN | bearish | -27.7% | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | IMAX | owns | +39.3% | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | SCHW | bullish | +11.9% | -2.0% | — |
| 2026-04-15 | NVDA | owns | +6.6% | +14.1% | — |
| 2026-04-15 | BITCOIN | bullish | -13.2% | +9.2% | — |
| 2025-10-08 | ARCC | owns | +7.1% | -2.2% | +5.3% |
| 2025-09-24 | TTD | bearish | +20.1% | +48.9% | +73.1% |
| 2025-09-24 | SPX | bullish | +4.4% | -0.3% | +17.3% |
| 2025-08-13 | NKE | bullish | -17.8% | -18.2% | -45.1% |
| 2025-07-30 | USTS | bearish | -3.9% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2025-07-15 | SOL | owns | -5.2% | — | — |
| 2025-07-02 | HOUSING | bearish | -7.0% | -1.1% | -9.3% |
| 2025-06-25 | USTS | bullish | +2.5% | +3.1% | +3.3% |
| 2025-06-17 | INTC | bullish | +19.1% | +80.3% | +482.2% |
| 2025-06-11 | Investment Grade Credit | bullish | +4.4% | +4.9% | +5.8% |
| 2025-06-11 | Big Tech | bullish | +9.2% | +17.5% | +35.3% |
| 2025-06-06 | GOLD | bullish | +7.0% | +26.8% | +30.2% |
| 2025-05-07 | SBUX | bullish | +9.8% | -0.8% | +29.5% |
| 2025-05-07 | CME | owns | +0.4% | -6.4% | +4.6% |
| 2025-04-23 | IMAX | bullish | +17.2% | +34.6% | +51.9% |
| 2025-04-02 | GOOGL | owns | +12.1% | +55.7% | +89.0% |
| 2025-04-01 | NVDA | bullish | +43.4% | +65.1% | +59.6% |
| 2025-04-01 | NKE | bearish | -10.4% | -8.7% | +29.4% |
| 2025-03-12 | SPX | bullish | +8.2% | +16.8% | +20.6% |
| 2025-03-12 | BITCOIN | owns | +31.8% | +33.9% | -15.7% |
| 2025-02-18 | China Equities | owns | +1.6% | +10.8% | +12.4% |
| 2025-02-06 | long HD / long SHW | basket | -7.7% | -4.5% | -2.3% |
| 2025-01-17 | CAT | bullish | -23.5% | +7.9% | +65.8% |
| 2024-12-31 | NKE | bullish | -15.7% | -5.0% | -13.8% |
| 2024-12-31 | ADBE | bullish | -13.8% | -13.0% | -21.3% |
| 2024-12-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -1.8% | -7.5% | -1.6% |
| 2024-11-13 | BITCOIN | bullish | +5.8% | +13.5% | +10.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-05 | |
| NKE | 4 | 2 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-07-22 | |
| NVDA | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-07-15 | |
| SPX | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-15 | |
| IMAX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-05-27 | |
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-07-30 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
AWS is reaccelerating for the first time in a long time and the data center business is far exceeding expectations, justifying continued ownership despite the retail segment being a low-margin drag
“AWS was reaccelerating for the first time in a long time”
Millionaire Households Doubled in Fifteen Years | WAYT?
2026-10-06
ARK
bullish
The Compound · video
ARK's seven-ETF composite is showing a technical breakout while money flows are rotating away from defensive sectors toward risk-on speculative growth, signaling renewed risk appetite
“I think Kathy might be back”
One Step Away From Sell | WAYT?
Energy's beta to the S&P 500 has collapsed to near-zero and turned negative, making it a portfolio hedge at a time when bonds are also failing to provide downside protection
“Energy leading the way. I'm a fan. Because it's anti-beta to the S&P now.”
It's a bull market and nobody drinks anymore. | TCAF 255
ETF outflows peaked and reversed after a near-complete capitulation, and current apathy/lack of dunking signals a sentiment washout bottom
“I bought a little bit yesterday. Just a little just a little taking a little step”
When Genius Failed, Again | Animal Spirits 476
2026-08-05
AI COMPUTE / SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
bullish
The Compound · video
The AI compute shortage is a real and durable demand driver and the investment cycle is still in early innings despite the recent hedge-fund-driven selloff
“I still think it's like very, very early in the story. The shortage of computing is a real thing”
When Genius Failed, Again | Animal Spirits 476
Nike's fundamentals are deteriorating with no credible recovery path — the brand has lost its moat like MTV and Sports Illustrated, the stock is back to 2014 prices, and the numbers 'suck' with no evidence of regaining competitive position over a 2-3 year…
“I think Nike might be toast. I can't believe it. This really does shock me.”
90d +9.3%
Say Bubble One More Time. I Dare You! | Animal Spirits 474
Stocks now constitute a larger share of US household net worth than real estate and are effectively too big to fail — governments will backstop markets in downturns as they did in 2008, COVID, and Liberation Day, making severe prolonged bear markets…
“the stock market is going to hold everyone's feet to the fire”
90d +3.3%
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
Said again: 2026-10-07 (The Compound)
Market is correctly putting a lower multiple on Nvidia because peak hypergrowth may have occurred in 2024 and sustainability of extraordinary cash generation is legitimately in doubt
“peak Nvidia happened in 2024. It's not going to continue to spread to the upside”
90d -7.7%
Will the Fed Buy Stocks? | Animal Spirits 473
Hyperscalers have de-rated to market multiples while memory stocks ran 1,500%, making MSFT and NFLX better 5-year bets as AI capex should compound into durable competitive advantage rather than permanently transferring value to suppliers
“I bought Microsoft and Netflix and I said, I'm going to close my eyes and look at it again 5 years”
90d +32.7%
Is Debt Fueling the Rally? | Animal Spirits 471
Netflix is undergoing a messy but expected transition from growth stock to value stock, making the drawdown a buying opportunity rather than a reason to exit
“I hope it goes a lot lower cuz I would be very comfortable buying a decent amount”
90d +0.4%
Everything Is Outperforming the S&P 500 This Year | Animal Spirits 470
Said again: 2026-07-08 (The Compound), 2026-07-22 (The Compound)
2026-06-17
European Equities
bullish
The Compound · video
European stock markets are severely underweight technology relative to the US, so they offer genuine diversification against AI-concentration risk — they would decline less if the S&P 500 corrects because there is less price build-up to unwind
“if you're worried, that that makes sense to me. Find those places”
90d +1.1%
How Much Is $1 Trillion? | Animal Spirits 469
Crypto has always been a risk-on asset, yet it is failing to participate in the current AI-driven risk-on rally — all major positive catalysts (ETF approval, regulatory tailwinds, institutional adoption) are already consumed, leaving no remaining upside driver
“we are fully risk on in a tech boom and crypto is not keeping up. That's the thing that would have me the most concerned”
90d -27.7%
The Teflon Economy | Animal Spirits 468
Acquisition interest (reported takeover offers) could trigger a bidding war, justifying holding a long-term position rather than selling into the news
“Wait for the bidding war? I'm not selling it”
90d +39.3%
A Fire Alarm For Interest Rates | Animal Spirits 466
Said again: 2026-07-22 (The Compound), 2026-07-29 (The Compound)
Schwab trades at 15x forward earnings (below-market multiple) after posting its best-ever quarter with 1.3M new accounts and $140B net new assets, and the JPMorgan AI cash tool threat is overblown — the stock actually ripped for three days after JPMorgan's…
“I'm going to buy it”
90d +11.9% · 180d -2.0%
Bitcoin decoupled from software stocks after tracking them closely through the AI selloff, finding support while software continued breaking down, suggesting independent strength or a leading signal
“it turns out that Bitcoin was just software all along...And no longer”
90d -13.2% · 180d +9.2%
Said again: 2026-07-01 (The Compound)
Nvidia recovered to pre-DeepSeek levels while AI narrative is winning over geopolitical concerns, with semiconductors the primary beneficiary of the market's re-embrace of the AI theme
“I bought Nvidia on Friday. I think it's the first time I ever owned Nvidia”
90d +6.6% · 180d +14.1%
Said again: 2026-06-03 (The Compound)
BDC selloff on private credit concerns is overdone — the credit quality fears are overblown and the asset class will survive without catastrophic return deterioration
“I bought Aries Capital Corporation ARCC. I think that uh nothing bad ever happens”
90d +7.1% · 180d -2.2% · 1y +5.3%
It Feels Like 1999 | Animal Spirits 433
Said again: 2025-10-15 (The Compound)
Oracle breaking the cash-flow-funded AI spending model forces Amazon, Microsoft, and Google into a debt-fueled arms race, igniting animal spirits that drive US equities to S&P 10,000
“buy everything. This bubble is about to go nuts. S&P 500 10,000”
90d +4.4% · 180d -0.3% · 1y +17.3%
A Mania Is Brewing | Animal Spirits 431
Amazon's rapidly growing ad business ($56B in 2024, up 400% since 2019) is permanently impairing companies like The Trade Desk that compete in the same advertising ecosystem
“like the trade desk for example are getting smoked and are probably permanently impaired”
90d +20.1% · 180d +48.9% · 1y +73.1%
A Mania Is Brewing | Animal Spirits 431
Nike is 60% off its highs and trading at 2018 price levels as the 98th-largest S&P stock, with a long-term Caitlin Clark brand catalyst and a fix to the failed direct-to-consumer pivot by returning to retail channels
“I should buy Nike and just close my eyes and plug my nose”
90d -17.8% · 180d -18.2% · 1y -45.1%
Measuring the Wealth Effect | Animal Spirits 425
98 companies announcing $43B+ in capital raises purely to buy Bitcoin constitutes leveraged dumb-money frenzy that historically ends badly, with the premium thesis not surviving as more entrants dilute the Microstrategy model
“This is complete nonsense. This is not going to end well.”
90d -3.9% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -2.1%
This Is the Dumb Money | Animal Spirits 423
2025-07-23
MIDWEST / GREAT LAKES REAL ESTATE
owns
The Compound · video
Midwest housing prices are stable because no migration-driven bubble formed (unlike FL/TX), and Great Lakes fresh water is a long-run resource hedge
“the Great Lakes are my greatest hedge going forward”
What Is Upper Middle Class? | Animal Spirits 422
2025-07-15
SOL
owns
The Compound · video
DCA accumulation driven by belief that tokenization of traditional assets on Solana is a structurally real theme, not a trade
“I bought more Solana last week; getting more and more interested in tokenizing traditional assets”
90d -5.2%
Yes, You May Sell Some Nvidia Now | WAYT?
Mortgage rates sustained at 6.5-7% for an extended period have pushed buyers to the sidelines, making a 3-5% national price correction plausible for the first time in this cycle
“this is the first time that I can actually see a decent little housing correction coming because rates continue to stay so high”
90d -7.0% · 180d -1.1% · 1y -9.3%
The Top 10 Risks to the Stock Market | Animal Spirits 419
The Genius Act mandating $1 of dollar-denominated reserves for every $1 of stablecoins issued creates structural new demand for US dollars and Treasury bills as stablecoin issuers like Tether must hold safe assets, adding a growing non-sovereign buyer class…
“this is bullish for US dollars correct I would think so and T bills probably”
90d +2.5% · 180d +3.1% · 1y +3.3%
The Nothing Ever Happens Market | Animal Spirits 418
Intel has been range-bound between $18–$21 since August 2024 with no remaining sellers, and a large unfilled price gap at $29 creates a technical setup for a sharp move higher.
“if you haven't sold it at this point, I think this baby might be about to scream”
90d +19.1% · 180d +80.3% · 1y +482.2%
Why Amazon is Josh's Favorite Mag 7 | WAYT?
2025-06-11
Big Tech
bullish
The Compound · video
A technology bubble is inevitable given AI's transformative scale, and owning the broad index lets the market pick the winners rather than requiring individual stock conviction in expensive names like Palantir or CoreWeave
“if you really want to make an AI bet, the easiest play is just that”
90d +9.2% · 180d +17.5% · 1y +35.3%
A Bubble Is Coming | Animal Spirits 416
2025-06-11
Investment Grade Credit
bullish
The Compound · video
Bloomberg US Aggregate yield-to-worst at ~4.7% historically predicts approximately equivalent 5-year forward returns, making the bond allocation in a 60-40 portfolio attractive even if equity returns moderate from recent highs
“the 60/40 is in pretty good shape even if the stock market doesn't do quite as well”
90d +4.4% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +5.8%
A Bubble Is Coming | Animal Spirits 416
Gold is rallying because the bond market is finally pricing in US fiscal deficit expansion — not because of tariff chaos — and with potential trillions in new deficit spending ahead, that dynamic remains intact
“rates up, dollar down, gold up — that is the market telling you the deficit is now front and center”
90d +7.0% · 180d +26.8% · 1y +30.2%
How Individual Investors Outsmarted the Pros | TCAF 195
Retail trading is a structural and growing revenue driver for CME, with platforms like Robinhood explicitly cited on the earnings call as a major part of the business story
“a stock that I bought after being tired of staring at it go up every single day”
90d +0.4% · 180d -6.4% · 1y +4.6%
There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett | Animal Spirits 411
Brian Nichols' turnaround narrative is credible and the underlying numbers were not as bad as the market's reaction implied, justifying holding rather than selling
“I believe this guy and the numbers weren't that bad and I believe the story”
90d +9.8% · 180d -0.8% · 1y +29.5%
There Will Never Be Another Warren Buffett | Animal Spirits 411
IMAX is entering a run of eight consecutive branded titles, with Sinners opening at a 20% box-office index share — only the eighth film in IMAX history to hit that mark — validating the premium-format demand thesis
“I'm very bullish on the company. I think it's going much higher”
90d +17.2% · 180d +34.6% · 1y +51.9%
So Bearish It's Bullish | Animal Spirits 409
Google is trading at low-20x forward P/E for 2025 and high-teens for 2026 estimated earnings, making it attractively valued relative to its quality given the market selloff
“I own Google uh at low 20s next year high teens 26 estimated earnings”
90d +12.1% · 180d +55.7% · 1y +89.0%
Ben's Bearish | Animal Spirits 406
Nike shows zero signs of turnaround with revenue down 9%, gross margins falling 326bps YoY, China down 17%, and market share being taken by OnCloud, Hoka, and New Balance while the company still trades at 24x forward earnings
“Zero signs of a turnaround at Nike. Genuine dog shit numbers just getting shittier”
90d -10.4% · 180d -8.7% · 1y +29.4%
Liberation Day or Red Wedding? | WAYT?
Nvidia hit its lowest forward PE in 10 years (~22x) despite being the dominant GPU manufacturer with 90% market share in the proven AI infrastructure era, making the risk/reward compelling
“This is the lowest forward PE ratio for Nvidia in 10 years”
90d +43.4% · 180d +65.1% · 1y +59.6%
Liberation Day or Red Wedding? | WAYT?
Said again: 2025-04-02 (The Compound)
The 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' executive order was a nothing-burger (merely holding already-forfeited BTC, not buying new), so the market selloff on the announcement was an overreaction to a non-event, creating a dip-buying opportunity
“I own a lot of Bitcoin. I loved seeing it dump on this news”
90d +31.8% · 180d +33.9% · 1y -15.7%
The Tariff Tantrum | Animal Spirits 403
The current selloff is a historically normal mid-year correction inside a secular bull market — historically half of all double-digit-gain years include a double-digit drawdown along the way — and after back-to-back 20%+ years the reset is healthy, not…
“a correction in a secular bull market, a healthy reintroduction of respect for risk”
90d +8.2% · 180d +16.8% · 1y +20.6%
The Tariff Tantrum | Animal Spirits 403
Said again: 2025-04-09 (The Compound), 2025-04-16 (The Compound)
2025-02-18
China Equities
owns
The Compound · video
Chinese stocks are in a sustained uptrend driven by the DeepSeek catalyst, government outreach to entrepreneurs, and fiscal/monetary stimulus from 2024, and despite frequent stops and starts one of these rallies will eventually stick
“I bought fxi last week so I'm hoping it does”
90d +1.6% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +12.4%
Why Global Stocks are Crushing the US Market | WAYT?
2025-02-12
TECH SECTOR
bearish
The Compound · video
Big tech has replicated Wall Street's pre-2008 moral-compass-free greed and power accumulation and will be the catalyst for the next financial crisis
“I think they will be the cause of the next financial crisis whenever it happens”
Is $1 Million a Lot of Money? | Animal Spirits 399
2025-02-06
long HD / long SHW
basket
The Compound · video
Aging US housing stock — over 60% of homes built before 1989 — combined with rising renovation costs and younger buyers' higher taste standards will drive a sustained remodeling boom, benefiting home improvement retailers
“I am a shareholder in Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams”
90d -7.7% · 180d -4.5% · 1y -2.3%
The Dumbest Trade War | Animal Spirits 398
2025-02-06
MAGNIFICENT 7 / AI MEGA-CAPS
bullish
The Compound · video
AI earnings growth will be the dominant market force for the rest of the decade, overriding tariff and macro headwinds the way a dog-walker overrides a leashed dog, making tariff-driven selloffs buying opportunities
“ultimately that is the arrow pointing up”
The Dumbest Trade War | Animal Spirits 398
Sector rotation out of mega-cap tech into cyclicals as year-end tax-loss selling pressure lifts from laggard industrial names; Caterpillar benefits as capital cycles into the group at the calendar turn
“rotation rotation rotation cat does look good”
90d -23.5% · 180d +7.9% · 1y +65.8%
JC's Revenge | TCAF 174
Adobe's chart offers an attractive risk-reward setup after a 25% drawdown, with a clear technical stop below $440 making the downside well-defined regardless of the fundamental narrative around AI disruption.
“it's a very easy stop below 440. So, I like the risk-reward here”
90d -13.8% · 180d -13.0% · 1y -21.3%
One of the Greatest Bull Market Years in History | WAYT?
Nike is set up for a technical bounce after its first-ever three consecutive down years — a historically anomalous setup — with Michael expecting a potential move back toward $100.
“I kind of think that that's what might happen here”
90d -15.7% · 180d -5.0% · 1y -13.8%
One of the Greatest Bull Market Years in History | WAYT?
2024-12-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
The Compound · video
Current 5–7% rate environment is unsustainable for ongoing economic growth, forcing rates lower and making today's bond yields attractive to lock in
“I think people are going to look back on this in 5 years and go oh man we should have locked those in”
90d -1.8% · 180d -7.5% · 1y -1.6%
The Mother of All Bubbles | Animal Spirits 389
Bitcoin supply grows at only ~2% annually while demand growth from institutional adoption and political legitimacy should vastly outpace it, creating asymmetric upside unavailable in other assets
“Bitcoin supply is increasing at 2% a year — do you think demand will increase faster or slower than that”
90d +5.8% · 180d +13.5% · 1y +10.0%
The Bitcoiners Won | Animal Spirits 386
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