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ARCCFinance Services
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$19.371d +1.6%5d +3.9%settled close · 2026-11-02
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Mkt cap $14B (11/2)β 0.5852w $17.45–21Shares 718.0MNasdaq since 2004Emp. 4,250HQ New York, NYarescapitalcorp.com
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Who said what, and what ARCC did next
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Who’s talking about ARCC
39 long2 neutral45 shortlatest 2026-10-26
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | Victor KhoslaFounder & CIO, Strategic Value Partners | Bearish | Bloomberg The Close | 2022 vintage direct lending deals will disappoint, returning only 2-3% rather than the targeted ~10%, as… |
| 2026-10-25 | Stephen SchwarzmanCo-founder & CEO, Blackstone | Bullish | Bloomberg Originals | Private credit funds continue to generate roughly 9% returns and the software-default panic triggered by a… |
| 2026-10-23 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | High-for-longer rates, wider credit spreads, and strong demand for capital and liquidity create significant… |
| 2026-10-23 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Fox Business (uncut) | Private credit coverage ratios and EBITDA growth have improved or stabilized, dispelling earlier concerns… |
| 2026-10-23 | Cameron DawsonCIO, NewEdge Wealth | Bearish | RiskReversal Media | CCC spreads have risen from 500-600bps to 1000bps driven by PE-backed companies under rate pressure, public… |
| 2026-10-22 | Tim TravisFounder, CEO & CIO, T&T Capital Management | Bullish | The Acquirers Podcast (feed) | BlueOwl Technology's BDC trades at such a large discount to NAV that the market has priced in 50% recoveries… |
| 2026-10-22 | Ted Koenig | Bearish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Data centers are long-term infrastructure plays unsuited for private credit underwriting; face unresolved… |
| 2026-10-17 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Bearish | The Market Huddle | Private credit vehicles are breaking to fresh lows and represent an underappreciated disaster waiting to… |
| 2026-10-15 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Higher base rates directly boost private credit returns, credit spreads are widening incrementally, and… |
| 2026-10-15 | Anastasia AmorosoChief Investment Strategist, iCapital | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Higher base rates boost lending returns, credit spreads are widening to offer better entry yields, and robust… |
Show all 86 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Laura HolsonCOO of credit, New Mountain Capital | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Direct lending offers attractive risk-adjusted returns as base rates remain elevated, spreads have widened… |
| 2026-10-12 | Margie PatelSenior portfolio manager, Allspring Global Investments | Bearish | Bloomberg TV (uncut) | Private credit has been eroding under higher interest rates and will likely continue to weaken, though not… |
| 2026-10-09 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private equity firms are jamming low-quality private credit into captive insurance vehicles with no… |
| 2026-10-06 | Nick NemethAuthor and Publisher, Mispriced Assets | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Middle market defaults are already running above 2008 levels as 6-7x levered portfolio companies cannot… |
| 2026-09-30 | Aaron MulvihillGlobal alternatives strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Private credit is one area within alternatives that directly benefits from higher rates because floating-rate… |
| 2026-09-30 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit marks are fraudulent—funds flip from 100 to zero overnight, pay-for-play rating agencies with… |
| 2026-09-29 | Meredith WhitneyCEO, Meredith Whitney Advisory Group | Bearish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Private credit firms carry stale, unevenly marked assets with no uniformity in valuations, aging portfolio… |
| 2026-09-15 | Alex ChiDeputy CIO, global credit & head of direct lending, Carlyle | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Three converging tailwinds make private credit attractive now: the $5T maturity wall forces hybrid-capital… |
| 2026-09-11 | Robin WigglesworthEditor, FT Alphaville (Financial Times) | Bearish | Meb Faber | Excess capital inflows into private credit eroded underwriting standards, rising PIK notes signal companies… |
| 2026-08-28 | Ed ZitronCEO, EZPR; Host, Better Offline | Bearish | The Compound | Private credit funds, insurance annuities, and public pension funds are financing data centers via loosely… |
| 2026-08-13 | Blue MacellariHead of Digital Assets, T. Rowe Price | Bearish | Raoul Pal | Wrapping illiquid private equity or real estate funds in tokenized wrappers cannot manufacture liquidity that… |
| 2026-08-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit funds are masking severe loan-level losses through stale marks — a 23-point fund markdown… |
| 2026-06-27 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Rising rates are triggering simultaneous redemption pressure and asset impairment in DSCR/business-purpose… |
| 2026-06-16 | Ted OakleyManaging Partner, Oxbow Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Companies paying 11-12% to private credit lenders are borrowers banks have already rejected on credit quality… |
| 2026-05-31 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit headline yields overstate total returns because loan losses and volatility drag realized… |
| 2026-05-30 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | US private credit default rates hit a record 6% in April—10x bank default rates—indicating the asset class is… |
| 2026-05-29 | Scott GallowayNYU Stern professor & podcast host | Bearish | Prof G Pod (Galloway) | AI companies funded by floating-rate private credit face a dual squeeze as rising bond yields inflate debt… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bearish | Wealthion | Private credit originated loans at low rates will face resets at higher rates in a weaker economy, risking… |
| 2026-05-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Private credit funds are overweight software company loans, and agentic AI is causing massive disruption to… |
| 2026-05-12 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Milken Institute | Private credit will play a dominant financing role in the multi-trillion dollar US AI and energy… |
| 2026-05-08 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Trust erosion, rising gated redemptions, and opaque markdowns mirror 2007 subprime dynamics — any apparent… |
| 2026-05-07 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Opaque mark-to-market practices, laundered volatility, and a trust breakdown are causing accelerating… |
| 2026-05-05 | Katie KochPresident & CEO, TCW | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Stress in private credit markets is generating rescue financing opportunities where lenders with workout… |
| 2026-04-27 | Craig ManchuckPortfolio manager, Osterweis Strategic Income Fund | Bearish | Odd Lots | 2020-2021 vintage software LBOs financed with floating-rate private credit at historically low base rates… |
| 2026-04-27 | John SheehanPartner & Portfolio Manager, Osterweis Capital Management | Bearish | Odd Lots | Competitive pressure to deploy pre-raised capital has severely degraded private credit underwriting standards… |
| 2026-04-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | Too much capital has flowed into private credit relative to its appropriate market size, it represents a… |
| 2026-03-30 | Ken KencelPresident & CEO, Churchill Asset Management | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Redemption pressure is forcing large-cap retail-heavy private credit managers to step back, widening spreads… |
| 2026-03-27 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Marks are opaque and unreliable (same position marked at 95 by one manager and 8 by another), illiquidity… |
| 2026-03-24 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit faces mounting redemption pressure, valuation opacity, and an ~8% projected default rate that… |
| 2026-03-24 | Armen PanossianCo-CEO, Oaktree Capital Management | Bullish | interview | Alpha has migrated out of commoditized direct lending into more complex, less-crowded corners of private… |
| 2026-03-24 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | interview | A flood of capital and competing managers into direct lending has compressed spreads to only 100–125bps over… |
| 2026-03-24 | Alyssa MallCIO, BFO (Michael Dell's family office) | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Large asset managers facing redemption queues exceeding 11% are forced non-economic sellers of high-quality… |
| 2026-03-20 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | Non-traded BDCs offer only illusory semi-liquidity via a 5% quarterly redemption cap, creating an adverse… |
| 2026-03-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | interview | The liquidity premium for private credit has compressed to roughly 125bps over public credit — adequate but… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit has underperformed public credit for four years, uses volatility laundering (moving-average… |
| 2026-02-26 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Investor Insight Channel | Default rates in private credit have risen sharply with PIK extensions proliferating, indicating hidden… |
| 2025-12-16 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | The Monetary Matters Network | Private credit promises equity-like returns from senior debt—a proposition Chanos says is structurally… |
| 2025-11-21 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Opaque and wildly inconsistent mark-to-model practices in private credit—same positions marked 95 to 8 across… |
| 2025-11-20 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Barron's | Excessive capital flooding into opaque private markets with weak due diligence is setting up a wave of credit… |
| 2025-11-19 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Preston Pysh | AI companies like OpenAI require trillions in capex competing directly with Treasury for scarce capital… |
| 2025-11-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit is structurally mismarked at par (100) regardless of fundamentals, leveraged upon leverage… |
| 2025-10-30 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Principles by Ray Dalio | Private credit is highly leveraged, lacks mark-to-market discipline, rolls forward distressed loans rather… |
| 2025-10-22 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit is selling senior-debt exposure at equity-like double-digit returns, implying poor underlying… |
| 2025-10-15 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Ares private credit BDC sold off on systemic-contagion fears that Batnick views as overblown; he expects… |
| 2025-10-10 | Scott NationsPresident, NationsShares; CNBC contributor | Bearish | The Compound | BDCs and private credit are opaque, fee-heavy, levered-on-leverage vehicles whose dividends must be cut as… |
| 2025-10-08 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | BDC selloff on private credit concerns is overdone — the credit quality fears are overblown and the asset… |
| 2025-10-06 | Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder, Social Capital | Bearish | All-In Podcast | Excess capital exiting PE is flooding into private credit, replicating the same bubble dynamic of too much… |
| 2025-08-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Default rates in private equity have risen sharply, PIK extensions are proliferating, and the effective… |
| 2025-08-19 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Citi | Convergence of public and private markets enabled by technology will drive massive allocation to private… |
| 2025-08-08 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit funds earn high interest rates on short-term variable-rate loans, offering attractive yield in… |
| 2025-08-04 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bearish | Investing Wizdom | Private credit has never been stress-tested under rising rates, and the US bond market failing to rally on… |
| 2025-07-09 | Casey WhalenCEO & CIO, Lazard Family Office Partners | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Rates have not fallen enough to make most capital structures work, a wall of maturities is arriving, and… |
| 2025-07-09 | Jon HarrisCEO, AIM13 (Alternative Investment Management) | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Biotech is deeply dislocated post-pandemic bubble across all capital structure layers — public markets… |
| 2025-06-30 | Boaz WeinsteinFounder & CIO, Saba Capital Management | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Private credit is dangerously overcrowded — dozens of new entrants are chasing identical loans, compressing… |
| 2025-06-11 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit is analogous to the 2006-07 CDO market — overinvested, illiquid, not marked to market, with… |
| 2025-05-21 | Kevin MuirIndependent trader — The Macro Tourist | Short | Forward Guidance | The weakest credit borrowers were pushed into private markets during the low-rate era and private credit is… |
| 2025-05-16 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit offers a ~9% yield versus ~4.5% on the 10-year Treasury for clients who can sacrifice… |
| 2025-04-23 | Dan LoebFounder/CEO, Third Point | Bullish | CNBC Television | Loeb is leaning heavily into private credit, now ~50% of Third Point's business, because he sees a lot better… |
| 2025-03-22 | Alexis Bleakley FinancialDirector, Investment Research & Alternatives, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | Elevated rates make private credit attractive at 8-10% floating-rate yields (SOFR + ~5% spread), with no… |
| 2025-03-08 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit is offering 9–10% yields with manageable incremental risk versus investment-grade public… |
| 2025-01-29 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit secured by hard-asset collateral yields 8–12%, and secondary-market purchases from… |
| 2024-12-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Future Proof | Private credit is a bubble fueled by investors fleeing overvalued public markets into illiquid blind pools… |
| 2024-12-13 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | The Compound | Private credit has a 2-3x longer runway versus public credit markets than private equity had versus public… |
| 2024-11-30 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit funds lending to cash-flow-positive middle market companies that cannot access… |
| 2024-11-28 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit to middle-market companies yields 10-18% with first-lien priority in the… |
| 2024-10-12 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit strategies lending to middle-market companies with free cash flow offer 10–18%… |
| 2024-10-10 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit to middle-market companies generates 10–18% yields versus sub-4% on Treasuries… |
| 2024-10-01 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Hyperscaler tenants (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) underwrite 15-20 year leases on AI data centers, securing… |
| 2024-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | Private credit yields in the double digits exceed most investors' required returns and carry less uncertainty… |
| 2023-11-24 | Barry SternlichtChairman/CEO, Starwood Capital | Bullish | Emerging Real Estate Digest | As US banks retrench from lending due to balance sheet stress and unrealized losses, private credit providers… |
| 2023-10-03 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | Private loans backing the largest buyouts yield low double digits — equity-type returns with credit-level… |
| 2023-08-08 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | Private markets contain more pricing inefficiencies than public markets, justifying a shift toward private… |
| 2023-06-27 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | CNBC Television | Private markets contain more inefficiencies than public markets, offering better opportunities to generate… |
| 2023-05-15 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides | Banks are structurally pulling back from lending and won't return for 1-3 years, creating an oversupply of… |
| 2022-07-25 | Josh FriedmanCo-CEO & Co-Founder, Canyon Partners | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Banks overextended on leveraged loans are now selling inventory at 85-90 cents to clean balance sheets… |
| 2022-05-04 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | David Rubenstein | With distressed opportunities scarce, senior secured private lending at 8-12% with modest leverage offers… |
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Earnings
Last reports
No confirmed date for the next report yet.
| Report | When | EPS actual vs est. | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | before the open | 0.46 vs 0.49 | -0.5% |
The options tape
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where ARCC’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 9 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are member content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | ||||||
| 2026-10-28 | ||||||
| 2026-09-30 | ||||||
| 2026-09-14 | ||||||
| 2026-07-29 | ||||||
| 2026-07-28 | ||||||
| 2026-06-23 | ||||||
| 2026-06-22 | ||||||
| 2026-06-12 |
+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
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