Stocks / Finance Services
ARCCFinance Services
Ares Capital Corporation
$19.651d +1.3%5d -0.3%settled close · 2026-09-17
Mkt cap $13B (3/25)β 0.6752w $17.45–22Shares 718.0MNasdaq since 2004Emp. 4,250HQ New York, NYarescapitalcorp.com
The tape, with the calls on it
Who said what, and what ARCC did next
Every dot is a day someone on the record made a call. Hover one to see who. We are not scoring them — the point is that you can see it and judge for yourself.
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Who’s talking about ARCC
27 long2 neutral31 shortlatest 2026-09-11
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Robin Wigglesworth | Bearish | Meb Faber | Excess capital inflows into private credit eroded underwriting standards, rising PIK notes signal companies… |
| 2026-08-28 | Ed ZitronCEO, EZPR; Host, Better Offline | Bearish | The Compound | Private credit funds, insurance annuities, and public pension funds are financing data centers via loosely… |
| 2026-08-13 | Blue MacellariHead of Digital Assets, T. Rowe Price | Bearish | Raoul Pal | Wrapping illiquid private equity or real estate funds in tokenized wrappers cannot manufacture liquidity that… |
| 2026-08-03 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit funds are masking severe loan-level losses through stale marks — a 23-point fund markdown… |
| 2026-06-27 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Rising rates are triggering simultaneous redemption pressure and asset impairment in DSCR/business-purpose… |
| 2026-06-16 | Ted OakleyManaging Partner, Oxbow Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Companies paying 11-12% to private credit lenders are borrowers banks have already rejected on credit quality… |
| 2026-05-31 | Ben FelixCIO, PWL Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit headline yields overstate total returns because loan losses and volatility drag realized… |
| 2026-05-30 | Chris WhalenBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | US private credit default rates hit a record 6% in April—10x bank default rates—indicating the asset class is… |
| 2026-05-29 | Scott GallowayNYU Stern professor & podcast host | Bearish | Prof G Pod (Galloway) | AI companies funded by floating-rate private credit face a dual squeeze as rising bond yields inflate debt… |
| 2026-05-28 | George Goncalves (MUFG)Bond market strategist | Bearish | Wealthion | Private credit originated loans at low rates will face resets at higher rates in a weaker economy, risking… |
Show all 60 mentions
| Date | Voice | Stance | Venue | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Jim BiancoMacro strategist — Bianco Research | Bearish | Wealthion | Private credit funds are overweight software company loans, and agentic AI is causing massive disruption to… |
| 2026-05-07 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Opaque mark-to-market practices, laundered volatility, and a trust breakdown are causing accelerating… |
| 2026-05-05 | Katie Koch | Bullish | Bloomberg The Close | Stress in private credit markets is generating rescue financing opportunities where lenders with workout… |
| 2026-04-27 | Craig Manchuck | Bearish | Odd Lots | 2020-2021 vintage software LBOs financed with floating-rate private credit at historically low base rates… |
| 2026-04-27 | John SheehanPartner & Portfolio Manager, Osterweis Capital Management | Bearish | Odd Lots | Competitive pressure to deploy pre-raised capital has severely degraded private credit underwriting standards… |
| 2026-04-06 | Tom Lee (Fundstrat)Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat | Bearish | Tom Lee | Too much capital has flowed into private credit relative to its appropriate market size, it represents a… |
| 2026-03-27 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Julia La Roche Show | Marks are opaque and unreliable (same position marked at 95 by one manager and 8 by another), illiquidity… |
| 2026-03-24 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit faces mounting redemption pressure, valuation opacity, and an ~8% projected default rate that… |
| 2026-03-24 | Armen Panossian | Bullish | interview | Alpha has migrated out of commoditized direct lending into more complex, less-crowded corners of private… |
| 2026-03-24 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | interview | A flood of capital and competing managers into direct lending has compressed spreads to only 100–125bps over… |
| 2026-03-24 | Alyssa Mall | Bullish | Bloomberg Open Interest | Large asset managers facing redemption queues exceeding 11% are forced non-economic sellers of high-quality… |
| 2026-03-20 | Patrick BoyleFinance professor; ex-hedge fund manager | Bearish | interview | Non-traded BDCs offer only illusory semi-liquidity via a 5% quarterly redemption cap, creating an adverse… |
| 2026-03-18 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Neutral | interview | The liquidity premium for private credit has compressed to roughly 125bps over public credit — adequate but… |
| 2026-03-02 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | DoubleLine Capital | Private credit has underperformed public credit for four years, uses volatility laundering (moving-average… |
| 2026-02-26 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Investor Insight Channel | Default rates in private credit have risen sharply with PIK extensions proliferating, indicating hidden… |
| 2025-12-16 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | The Monetary Matters Network | Private credit promises equity-like returns from senior debt—a proposition Chanos says is structurally… |
| 2025-11-21 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Opaque and wildly inconsistent mark-to-model practices in private credit—same positions marked 95 to 8 across… |
| 2025-11-20 | Mohamed El-ErianChief economic adviser, Allianz | Bearish | Barron's | Excessive capital flooding into opaque private markets with weak due diligence is setting up a wave of credit… |
| 2025-11-19 | Luke GromenMacro strategist — founder, FFTT | Bearish | Preston Pysh | AI companies like OpenAI require trillions in capex competing directly with Treasury for scarce capital… |
| 2025-11-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | interview | Private credit is structurally mismarked at par (100) regardless of fundamentals, leveraged upon leverage… |
| 2025-10-30 | Ray DalioFounder, Bridgewater Associates | Bearish | Principles by Ray Dalio | Private credit is highly leveraged, lacks mark-to-market discipline, rolls forward distressed loans rather… |
| 2025-10-22 | Jim ChanosShort seller — Chanos & Co (family office) | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit is selling senior-debt exposure at equity-like double-digit returns, implying poor underlying… |
| 2025-10-15 | Michael BatnickManaging Partner, Ritholtz Wealth | Bullish | The Compound | Ares private credit BDC sold off on systemic-contagion fears that Batnick views as overblown; he expects… |
| 2025-08-31 | Lacy HuntChief economist, Hoisington Investment | Bearish | Adam Taggart | Default rates in private equity have risen sharply, PIK extensions are proliferating, and the effective… |
| 2025-08-19 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Citi | Convergence of public and private markets enabled by technology will drive massive allocation to private… |
| 2025-08-08 | Kevin GrimesCEO & CIO, Grimes & Company | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit funds earn high interest rates on short-term variable-rate loans, offering attractive yield in… |
| 2025-07-09 | Casey Whalen | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Rates have not fallen enough to make most capital structures work, a wall of maturities is arriving, and… |
| 2025-07-09 | Jon Harris | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Biotech is deeply dislocated post-pandemic bubble across all capital structure layers — public markets… |
| 2025-06-30 | Boaz WeinsteinFounder & CIO, Saba Capital Management | Bearish | Bloomberg Television | Private credit is dangerously overcrowded — dozens of new entrants are chasing identical loans, compressing… |
| 2025-06-11 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Bloomberg Podcasts | Private credit is analogous to the 2006-07 CDO market — overinvested, illiquid, not marked to market, with… |
| 2025-05-16 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit offers a ~9% yield versus ~4.5% on the 10-year Treasury for clients who can sacrifice… |
| 2025-04-23 | Dan LoebFounder/CEO, Third Point | Bullish | CNBC Television | Loeb is leaning heavily into private credit, now ~50% of Third Point's business, because he sees a lot better… |
| 2025-03-22 | Alexis Bleakley FinancialDirector, Investment Research & Alternatives, Bleakley Financial Group | Bullish | Wealthion | Elevated rates make private credit attractive at 8-10% floating-rate yields (SOFR + ~5% spread), with no… |
| 2025-03-08 | Scott SchwartzPrincipal, OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit is offering 9–10% yields with manageable incremental risk versus investment-grade public… |
| 2025-01-29 | Brett RentmeesterCIO, Jaggi Family Office | Bullish | Wealthion | Private credit secured by hard-asset collateral yields 8–12%, and secondary-market purchases from… |
| 2024-12-17 | Jeffrey GundlachCEO/CIO, DoubleLine Capital | Bearish | Future Proof | Private credit is a bubble fueled by investors fleeing overvalued public markets into illiquid blind pools… |
| 2024-12-13 | Rick RiederCIO of Global Fixed Income, BlackRock | Bullish | The Compound | Private credit has a 2-3x longer runway versus public credit markets than private equity had versus public… |
| 2024-11-30 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit funds lending to cash-flow-positive middle market companies that cannot access… |
| 2024-11-28 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit to middle-market companies yields 10-18% with first-lien priority in the… |
| 2024-10-12 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit strategies lending to middle-market companies with free cash flow offer 10–18%… |
| 2024-10-10 | Ram AhluwaliaCEO, Lumida Wealth | Bullish | Wealthion | Senior secured private credit to middle-market companies generates 10–18% yields versus sub-4% on Treasuries… |
| 2024-10-01 | Larry FinkChairman/CEO, BlackRock | Bullish | Bloomberg Television | Hyperscaler tenants (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) underwrite 15-20 year leases on AI data centers, securing… |
| 2024-08-21 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | Oaktree Capital | Private credit yields in the double digits exceed most investors' required returns and carry less uncertainty… |
| 2023-11-24 | Barry SternlichtChairman/CEO, Starwood Capital | Bullish | Emerging Real Estate Digest | As US banks retrench from lending due to balance sheet stress and unrealized losses, private credit providers… |
| 2023-10-03 | Howard MarksCo-chairman, Oaktree Capital | Bullish | David Rubenstein | Private loans backing the largest buyouts yield low double digits — equity-type returns with credit-level… |
| 2023-08-08 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | OnefootHurdle | Private markets contain more pricing inefficiencies than public markets, justifying a shift toward private… |
| 2023-06-27 | Seth KlarmanCEO, Baupost Group | Bullish | CNBC Television | Private markets contain more inefficiencies than public markets, offering better opportunities to generate… |
| 2023-05-15 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | Capital Allocators with Ted Seides | Banks are structurally pulling back from lending and won't return for 1-3 years, creating an oversupply of… |
| 2022-07-25 | Josh FriedmanCo-CEO & Co-Founder, Canyon Partners | Bullish | Capital Allocators | Economic weakness in Europe is pushing more companies to the edge of their capital structures, creating… |
| 2022-05-04 | Marc LasryCEO, Avenue Capital Group | Bullish | David Rubenstein | With distressed opportunities scarce, senior secured private lending at 8-12% with modest leverage offers… |
1 new mention of ARCC this week is in The Brief — who, which way, and what they said, in subscribers’ inboxes every morning. Free pages update a week later.
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Earnings
Next report: 26 Oct 2026
Confirmed date · consensus EPS 0.49. Reactions below are the next settled session over the prior close.
The options tapeThe Brief · paid
Notable options days
Sessions in the last 120 where ARCC’s settled options volume ran ≥ 2× its trailing 20-session baseline, or delta-dollar flow ran ≥ 2.5× — 6 of 120 sessions qualified.
The qualifying dates are the free record. Close, flow, call/LEAPS mix and the 20-session outcome — for every session below — are Brief subscriber content.
| Date | Close | RVOL | Δ$ flow ($M) | Call % | LEAPS % | +20 sess. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | ||||||
| 2026-07-29 | ||||||
| 2026-07-28 | ||||||
| 2026-06-23 | ||||||
| 2026-06-22 | ||||||
| 2026-06-12 |
+20 sess. = raw price change over the following 20
sessions — not market-adjusted; the tape tells you where to look,
not what happens next.
Today’s tape on
ARCC is in this morning’s Brief.
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