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Investors / stance tracking

What Tom Lee (Fundstrat) is saying

Co-founder & head of research, Fundstrat

194 dated public stances tracked since 2021-12-17, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tom Lee (Fundstrat)'s public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tom Lee (Fundstrat) is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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194
tracked stances
70
themes
6
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns  90d -1.9% (n=136) · 180d -1.3% (n=108) · 1y +15.6% (n=47)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bearish2026-06-23 → bullish2026-07-27
SPX — bearish2026-06-05 → bullish2026-06-25
USTS — bullish2025-07-07 → bearish2026-06-23
SPX — bullish2026-06-01 → bearish2026-06-05
SPX — bearish2025-12-15 → bullish2026-01-05
SPX — bullish2025-12-12 → bearish2025-12-15

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
SPX3027 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-13
BITCOIN2727 bullish2026-08-27
NVDA1212 bullish2026-07-27
Big Tech77 bullish2026-05-15
ENERGY77 bullish2026-04-13
ETH77 bullish2026-08-27

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-27 ETH bullish Tom Lee · video
Ethereum is the dominant settlement layer for tokenization of financial assets and agentic AI commerce, making it vastly undervalued at current prices relative to its potential as global financial infrastructure
“In our view, Ethereum is still vastly vastly undervalued”
Tom Lee: The Next 5 Years of Crypto Will Be About Ethereum
2026-08-27 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Bitcoin is a superior substitute for physical gold as a store of value and has multiple times upside from current levels as digital gold demand grows
“Bitcoin easily has multiples of upside from here”
Tom Lee: The Next 5 Years of Crypto Will Be About Ethereum
2026-08-27 long ETH / long BITCOIN ratio Tom Lee · video
The ETH/BTC ratio should expand dramatically from 0.03 back to its prior high of 0.08 and potentially to 0.25 or 1.0, as the crypto narrative for the next five years centers on tokenization and agentic AI — themes that favor Ethereum over Bitcoin
“that ratio is going to go way beyond 0.08, maybe it even goes to 0.25, maybe it even goes to one”
Tom Lee: The Next 5 Years of Crypto Will Be About Ethereum
2026-08-24 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Bitcoin has likely made its local cycle low based on prior cycle timing patterns; buying now at roughly 90% through the price bottom is better than trying to time the exact trough
“I think we've bottomed”
BitMine Is About to Own 5% of ETH | Tom Lee
2026-08-24 ETH bullish Tom Lee · video
Crypto winter is roughly 90-95% complete on both time and price, stablecoin adoption compounds into a far larger tokenization wave, AI makes crypto settlement rails more necessary not less, and ETH as the dominant institutional L1 should exceed $10,000 by…
“I think Ethereum could easily be over 10,000 in that time frame”
BitMine Is About to Own 5% of ETH | Tom Lee
2026-08-24 long ETH / short BITCOIN ratio Tom Lee · video
ETH flipping Bitcoin's market cap is a plausible multi-year outcome driven by institutional tokenization and AI settlement demand concentrating on Ethereum, implying ETH significantly outperforms BTC on a relative basis
“should ETH flip Bitcoin? I think it's a very plausible argument”
BitMine Is About to Own 5% of ETH | Tom Lee
2026-08-13 SPX bullish Tom Lee · video
2027 earnings estimates are rising toward $425 from $395 at earnings-season start, and at a 20x multiple that implies SPX near 9,000, supporting the near-term 7,900–8,000 target by end of August
“if you put a 20 multiple on that, you're already close to 9,000”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000, Then a 10% Pullback
2026-07-27 BITMAIN IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES bullish Tom Lee · video
As the largest Ethereum treasury (5.78M ETH), Bitmain generates ~$300M/year in staking yield that fully covers preferred dividends with a simple capital structure, and as the only NYSE/Russell 1000 large-cap equity it is the sole vehicle for institutional…
“if you're a large manager in Boston and you want exposure to Ethereum, you have to buy Bitmain”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 GRNY bullish Tom Lee · video
Long-term AI themes, cybersecurity, and a Fed easing bet are driving top-decile performance; the fund has beaten S&P 500 by 120bps and 92% of active managers YTD by anchoring to structural themes rather than market timing
“year-to-date it's outperformed the S&P 500 by 120 basis points and it's a top decile fund this year”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 NVDA bullish Tom Lee · video
The CUDA platform creates a recurring revenue moat with a near-guaranteed hardware upgrade roadmap, justifying re-rating from current 16x to 25-30x forward earnings as a growth stock rather than a cyclical
“Nvidia has proven it's got a recurring revenue business...it should be re-rated as a growth stock”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 ETH bullish Tom Lee · video
The Clarity Act will create a single federal regulatory framework for crypto, opening institutional capital floodgates; Ethereum is positioned as the financial settlement layer for Wall Street stablecoins and tokenized assets, validated by Robinhood Chain…
“Clarity Act is going to provide a single agency to have oversight of the entire crypto economy...institutional adoption of crypto”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 MSTR owns Tom Lee · video
Bullish on Bitcoin as the leading store-of-value digital asset; holds MicroStrategy in Grayscale funds as the primary listed equity vehicle for Bitcoin treasury exposure
“I'm still quite bullish on MicroStrategy...we own it in the Grayscale funds cuz I'm bullish on Bitcoin”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 HOOD bullish Tom Lee · video
Robinhood Chain launched on Ethereum is already exceeding $1B daily volume and could generate $1B/year in new revenue for Robinhood, establishing it as first-mover on institutional tokenized asset rails and a model every Wall Street firm is now watching
“Robinhood might make a billion a year from this chain that they just launched”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 USTS bullish Tom Lee · video
Inflation will undershoot consensus expectations because the oil shock has already peaked and the underlying drivers (housing, wages) are both weakening, forcing the Fed to cut rates while the bond market remains mispriced for hikes
“our bet is that inflation is going to undershoot expectations...the underlying inflation drivers are weakening”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-27 long Big Tech / long SOFTWARE / long Crypto Other basket Tom Lee · video
Mag 7, software, and crypto are the downstream AI beneficiaries now beginning to outperform as AI investment matures beyond semiconductor capex into application-layer monetization
“Mag 7, software and crypto are the downstream of AI stories and they're beginning to outperform”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
2026-07-11 SEMICONDUCTORS bullish Tom Lee · video
Near-term visibility is very good through 2026-2027 as semis enter a structurally new cycle driven by robots (which require ~50x more semiconductor content than a smartphone) and space applications, and growth managers who missed the semi/DRAM rally will…
“growth managers probably missed a lot of that semi and dram rally. I think they're going to be chasing it in the second half”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 SPX bullish Tom Lee · video
2027 S&P earnings of $400 applied at 20x multiple justifies 8,000 target, and earnings growth is real — the forward PE has actually compressed from 19.4x to 18.4x since January even as the index rose 9%
“we did raise our target to 8,000, which is basically $400 in 2027 earnings and then we trade at 20 times”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 AMZN bullish Tom Lee · video
Amazon as a logistics company with a million industrial robots is uniquely positioned to have its TAM double as robots expand into residential construction and any logistics-adjacent market
“why won't Amazon be part of like future home construction... their TAM is, you know, doubled”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 MSFT bullish Tom Lee · video
Microsoft's history of smart early AI investments and cloud dominance demonstrates a 'pretty decent crystal ball' that will navigate the current capex-transition period successfully despite the 24% YTD selloff
“I'm very confident both are going to play the future way smarter than the market believes”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 META bullish Tom Lee · video
Meta's proven track record of making existential pivots — desktop to mobile advertising, user content to monetization — gives high confidence it will navigate the current AI capex cycle despite the 15% YTD decline and FCF compression
“Mark Zuckerberg has proven to make very, very smart pivots”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Blockchain remains the superior trustless settlement layer and Wall Street is actively building on it; Bitcoin has never been down four consecutive quarters and currently trades ~5% below production cost, creating a floor, with a price target above $100K by…
“I believe you're going to see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 long Big Tech / long IGV basket Tom Lee · video
Mag 7 and software stocks (IGV) have been de-rated and are downstream compounding beneficiaries of AI productivity gains, making risk/reward attractive after underperformance
“it's the D-rating that's taken place in all of those stocks that tells us the risk award is really attractive”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11 long SOUTH KOREAN EQUITIES / long TAIWAN EQUITIES basket Tom Lee · video
Korea and Taiwan have structural high-beta to every incremental advance in the AI story due to their role as semiconductor and memory infrastructure partners, making their equities structural outperformers vs the US
“for every advancement in the AI story, it's Korea has a beta to that”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-09 SPX bullish CNBC Television · video
Iran-driven market selloffs have historically been buying opportunities, as the Feb–April escalation period demonstrated when tumbling markets ultimately recovered
“it ultimately proved to be a good buying opportunity for stocks”
Market Midday: Stocks Higher; Iran Jitters Ease, SK Hynix Targets U.S. • 7/9/26
2026-07-06 SPX bullish CNBC Television · video
Q2 earnings will beat expectations again, compressing the market's PE further below its January level and creating room for multiple expansion toward 8,000–8,800; underperforming fund managers (only 23% beating large-cap growth) will be forced to buy any July…
“I think July's going to be a stronger month for stocks”
July will be a 'stronger month' for stocks, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
2026-07-03 NVDA bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Nvidia at 16x forward earnings mirrors Apple when it was dismissed as a simple hardware company trading at 10x — the street eventually rerated Apple to 30x as it recognized the platform, and the same secular rerating is coming for Nvidia
“Nvidia's at 16 times. It reminds me of how Apple was viewed as a hardware phone stock”
CNBC HOST PUTS TOM LEE ON THE HOT SEAT + Josh Brown's Top picks in 1st segment(07/02)
2026-06-25 SPX bullish Tom Lee · video
2027 consensus EPS rose $48 YTD while the S&P's PE on those estimates actually contracted one turn (19.4 → 18.4), meaning the market is cheaper than January 1 and earnings revisions still have room to run
“Today, the market is cheaper today than it was on January 1”
TOM LEE: As we approach mid-year, the driver for S&P 500 so far is 'E' not 'PE'
2026-06-25 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Banks and AI companies are building on crypto rails for tokenization and decentralized AI agent infrastructure — BlackRock is tokenizing almost every asset on blockchain; Bitcoin is in the same misunderstood position it was at $1,000 and will be recognized as…
“without question Bitcoin today is like Bitcoin at a thousand. It's misunderstood”
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-06-25 SEMICONDUCTORS / AI INFRASTRUCTURE bullish Tom Lee · video
Since 2011, 17 instances of a 6%+ single-day semi-index drop showed 88% win rate at 1, 3, and 6 months with median +12% at one month and +38% at six months, making the Tuesday selloff a dip-buy signal rather than a top, especially given better visibility than…
“it's not really something that you see at tops. It's actually often what you see either at the bottoms or in midcycle”
TOM LEE: As we approach mid-year, the driver for S&P 500 so far is 'E' not 'PE'
2026-06-25 ETHEREUM bullish Tom Lee · video
Smart contract platforms are the rails for tokenizing every financial asset — finality, 24/7 trading, composability — with BlackRock and major institutions already adopting; AI engineers tinker with crypto specifically because decentralized systems are needed…
“contract platforms like Ethereum are going to be more than”
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-06-23 USTS bearish Tom Lee · video
The 2-year Treasury yield leads Fed funds by ~60bps (two hikes' worth), signaling the Fed must tighten and pushing 10-year yields higher — a headwind for risk assets through year-end
“that tells me at least at the moment yields are headwind”
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: The Market Is Pricing In Two Rate Hikes. Here's What He Thinks.
2026-06-14 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Bitcoin closing up three consecutive months has never occurred in a bear market, signaling crypto winter is definitively over and a new bull cycle is starting
“You're never in a bear market if Bitcoin closes up three consecutive months”
Tom Lee's Case for $22,000 Ethereum
2026-06-14 SOFTWARE STOCKS bullish Tom Lee · video
Software stocks have bottomed and are highly correlated to Bitcoin, which is itself signaling the end of its bear market, making software a top sector pick alongside crypto
“Software stocks have bottomed and as you know, software stocks have been highly correlated to Bitcoin”
Tom Lee's Case for $22,000 Ethereum
2026-06-14 ORBS bullish Tom Lee · video
Eightco (ORBS) holds World token, a stake in OpenAI, and MrBeast, yet trades at a large discount to Fundrise (VCX) which trades at 6x NAV, making it a mispriced closed-end fund with exposure to critical AI and crypto infrastructure
“Aiko gives you exposure to all these companies and is trading at a huge discount to VCX”
Tom Lee's Case for $22,000 Ethereum
2026-06-05 SPX bearish Tom Lee · video
A parabolic market lift over the past month has elevated expectations to levels that are now being sobered, and a $75B SpaceX IPO is forcing investors to raise cash, which Lee believes will culminate in a bear-market-like event later in 2026
“later this year there's going to be something that feels like a bear market”
90d -5.1%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee talks 'sobering' happening in the market today
2026-06-05 META bullish Tom Lee · video
Major AI companies are building large-scale infrastructure that remains underfunded relative to the opportunity, and recent breakthroughs justify continued investor patience as this capital deployment could create significant long-term value
“building land that could end up being beachfront property”
90d +3.1%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee talks 'sobering' happening in the market today
2026-06-01 SPX bullish Tom Lee · video
S&P 500 earnings came in $10 higher in Q1 alone, implying ~$40 upward revision for the full year which at a 20x multiple adds 800 points, supported by AI tailwinds and US economic acceleration
“if you just put a 20 multiple, that adds 800 points to the S&P”
90d +1.4%
Tom Lee's Case for the Biggest Gains of Our Lifetime
2026-06-01 SOFTWARE STOCKS bullish Tom Lee · video
AI benefits are moving downstream into US businesses, and software has already started to rally big as AI value creation flows through the tech stack
“software has really started to rally big”
Tom Lee's Case for the Biggest Gains of Our Lifetime
2026-06-01 BITCOIN bullish Tom Lee · video
Bitcoin's thesis is intact because network usage still explains 87% of price appreciation and Bitcoin serves as the infrastructure for decentralized identity, AI agent commerce, and Wall Street tokenization, while being scarcer than gold
“is the thesis for Bitcoin or Ethereum broken? It's absolutely not”
90d +8.9%
Tom Lee's Case for the Biggest Gains of Our Lifetime
2026-05-28 SPX bullish Tom Lee · video
Q1 earnings came in at $80 vs. $70 expected — a $40 annualized beat — which mechanically justifies 800–1,000 additional S&P points of upside and explains the entire April rally
“the entire rally since April could be explained by just the Q1 earnings beat”
90d +1.8%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee explains the 'three market phases' he is watching this year
2026-05-28 RATE-SENSITIVE EQUITIES / MOST EQUITY GROUPS bearish Tom Lee · video
Oil-driven inflation has created a pipeline tightening that is pushing the bond market to price a rate hike instead of easing, which makes it structurally difficult for most equity groups that require a dovish Fed to rally
Fundstrat's Tom Lee explains the 'three market phases' he is watching this year
2026-05-22 NVDA bullish Tom Lee · video
NVDA's revenue growth at its scale demonstrates unrelenting demand for AI hardware, with supply of AI equipment still scarce relative to demand.
“unrelenting demand for the product Nvidia sells... still a shortage of those who are supplying the equipment”
90d +0.8%
Nvidia earnings shows 'unrelenting demand', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
2026-05-20 PUBLIC EQUITIES VS. ALTERNATIVES bullish Meb Faber · video
High-net-worth individuals and institutions are near record-low allocations to public stocks after a decade of over-allocating to alternatives, setting up a structural reallocation tailwind for public equities
“for every dollar that went into public markets, $9 probably went into alternatives”
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-20 SPX bullish Meb Faber · video
Structural tailwinds and weak investor conviction support continued upside, with a year-end 2026 target of 7,700 despite expected mid-year turbulence from a new Fed chair
“we think there were some structural tailwinds and so thought we'd end the year 2026 at 7,700”
90d +3.8%
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-20 SOFTWARE STOCKS bullish Meb Faber · video
Software stocks have sold off to 15-year relative price lows, fully unwinding the 'software is eating the world' thesis, creating a positive risk/reward setup as bad news is priced in and AI allows best companies to reinvent themselves
“on a relative price basis you're back to 15-year lows”
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-20 ETHEREUM bullish Meb Faber · video
Ethereum serves as the compute layer for blockchain and benefits from AI agents needing neutral identity/transaction infrastructure and growing institutional tokenization activity
“Ethereum because it's really the compute layer”
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-20 OIL bullish Meb Faber · video
Current oil prices do not reflect an acute petroleum supply shortage developing later in 2025, with drawn-down inventories and constrained strait traffic likely to force a higher clearing price
“I actually don't think that that reflects the price that's going to exist later this year”
90d -9.4%
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-20 BITCOIN bullish Meb Faber · video
Bitcoin is the base-layer winner in blockchain because it excels at storing value, and institutional adoption via ETF flows and bank tokenization activity confirms durable demand
“Bitcoin is going to be arguably the most important blockchain because it's really good at storing value”
90d -16.5%
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-15 SPX bullish Meb Faber · video
Structural tailwinds and weak investor conviction (not euphoria) support continued upside, with a year-end 2026 target of 7,700
“we thought we'd end the year 2026 at 7700”
90d +5.5%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 DRAM bullish Tom Lee · video
Memory chip shortages are even more acute than energy shortages, making DRAM a defensive position that works even if the macro environment deteriorates due to inflation or petroleum supply concerns
“there's even bigger shortages in memory... that's why it makes sense for semis and DRAM to still do really well”
90d +11.4%
Tom Lee Flags 3 Risks for Stocks
2026-05-15 PUBLIC EQUITIES (REALLOCATION FROM ALTERNATIVES) bullish Meb Faber · video
High-net-worth and institutional investors are near record-low allocations to public stocks after a decade of alternatives overweighting, and mega IPOs will catalyze reallocation back into public markets
“for every dollar that went into public markets, $9 probably went into alternatives”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 Big Tech bullish Tom Lee · video
For investors wanting a larger tech bet, Mag 7 and software offer the most attractive risk profile, reinforced by Bill Ackman's Microsoft purchase, making software a top pick
“the really attractive risk is still mag 7 and software... software is actually still among our top picks right now”
90d +3.4%
Tom Lee Flags 3 Risks for Stocks
2026-05-15 BROADER US EQUITY MARKET (EX-TECH) bearish Tom Lee · video
Pipeline inflation pressures, rising yields, rising oil prices, and a heavy IPO supply calendar create near-term headwinds that make the broader market's risk-reward unattractive over the next three months
“I think we're going to face some tests later this summer”
Tom Lee Flags 3 Risks for Stocks
2026-05-15 SOFTWARE STOCKS bullish Meb Faber · video
Software stocks have retraced to 15-year relative price lows, meaning the 'software is eating the world' thesis has been fully unpriced, creating positive risk-reward
“the entire software is eating the world thesis has been unwritten in just the last 6 months”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 NVDA bullish Meb Faber · video
Nvidia is tied to three or four structural themes simultaneously (AI, labor shortage, energy, etc.), making it a durable core holding unlikely to be rebalanced out
“Nvidia for instance has been a Granny Shot since inception in 2019”
90d +0.1%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 ECHOSTAR / SPACEX PROXY bullish Meb Faber · video
EchoStar holds SpaceX stock received in exchange for spectrum, making it a near-NAV way to gain public-market exposure to SpaceX before any IPO
“EchoStar is essentially a pure play on SpaceX...a phantom way to get exposure to SpaceX”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 OIL bullish Meb Faber · video
Inventory drawdowns, supply shortages, and restricted strait traffic suggest current oil prices do not reflect the clearing price later in 2025
“the current price of oil doesn't seem to reflect what will be the clearing price later this year”
90d -15.7%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 BITCOIN bullish Meb Faber · video
Bitcoin is the base-layer winner in blockchain as the most important store-of-value chain, while institutional tokenization and AI-driven transaction needs accelerate adoption
“Bitcoin is going to be arguably the most important blockchain because it's really good at storing value”
90d -19.8%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 GRNY bullish Meb Faber · video
Owning large-cap stocks exposed to multiple structural themes (AI, energy, cybersecurity, demographics) improves odds of outperformance versus single-theme concentration
“stocks that are in four themes today are Nvidia, Chevron, Google, and Meta”
90d +5.4%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15 ETHEREUM bullish Meb Faber · video
Ethereum functions as the compute layer for blockchain and will benefit from AI agents needing neutral identity/transaction infrastructure and Wall Street tokenization
“Ethereum because it's really the compute layer”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash

Showing the 60 most recent of 194 tracked stances.

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