Investors / stance tracking
What Tom Lee is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder & head of research, Fundstrat
164 dated public stances tracked since 2021-12-17, most recently 2026-11-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tom Lee's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tom Lee is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
164
tracked stances
90
themes
6
side flips
2026-11-02
last heard
Returns 90d +0.3% 54% correct · 79 calls · 180d +0.2% 61% correct · 62 calls · 1y +13.8% 68% correct · 37 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | USTS | bullish | -1.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | MSTR | owns | +41.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | HOOD | bullish | -2.9% | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | ETH | bullish | +19.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | long Big Tech / long IGV | basket | +13.6% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | MSFT | bullish | +37.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | BITCOIN | bullish | +29.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | AMZN | bullish | +6.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-06 | SPX | bullish | +3.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | USTS | bearish | +2.2% | — | — |
| 2026-06-14 | ORBS | bullish | -9.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | SPX | bearish | -5.1% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | META | bullish | +3.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | NVDA | bullish | +0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | GRNY | bullish | +5.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | DRAM | bullish | +11.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | Big Tech | bullish | +3.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | OIL | bullish | -17.3% | +6.3% | — |
| 2026-04-27 | GOLD | bullish | -12.9% | -14.4% | — |
| 2026-04-13 | TPL | bullish | -1.7% | -12.1% | — |
| 2026-04-13 | OKE | bullish | +9.3% | +10.4% | — |
| 2026-04-13 | ENERGY | bullish | +0.1% | +17.1% | — |
| 2026-04-13 | DEFENSE | bullish | +1.0% | -11.3% | — |
| 2026-04-06 | SPX | bullish | +14.3% | +18.2% | — |
| 2026-04-06 | Private Credit | bearish | -4.0% | -8.1% | — |
| 2026-04-06 | IGV | bullish | +17.8% | +36.4% | — |
| 2026-04-06 | BITCOIN | bullish | -7.6% | +23.1% | — |
| 2026-01-31 | Em Equities | bullish | +8.2% | +7.8% | — |
| 2026-01-23 | NVDA | bullish | +6.4% | +13.1% | — |
| 2026-01-23 | Big Tech | bullish | +4.7% | +13.5% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | SILVER | bullish | -15.5% | -40.3% | — |
| 2026-01-20 | GOLD | bullish | +1.1% | -15.9% | — |
| 2026-01-05 | SPX | bullish | -3.9% | +9.8% | — |
| 2026-01-05 | ENERGY | bullish | +28.1% | +14.9% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | SPX | bearish | +1.4% | -11.5% | — |
| 2025-12-15 | BANKS | bullish | -6.6% | +6.8% | — |
| 2025-12-12 | GRNY | bullish | -2.6% | +5.6% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | MSTR | bullish | -21.3% | -26.8% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | ETH | bullish | -31.2% | -38.9% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | BMNR | bullish | -41.8% | -50.5% | — |
Showing the 40 most recent of 79 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 12 | 9 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-05 | |
| BITCOIN | 7 | 7 bullish | 2026-10-13 | |
| Big Tech | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-09-10 | |
| NVDA | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-09-10 | |
| BANKS | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-09-10 | |
| Crypto Other | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-07-30 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-11-02
NDX
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
NASDAQ 100 is near a washout bottom because the AI market remains supply-constrained (not over-capacity) and the broader equal-weight index has already recovered, suggesting the tech-specific correction has run its course
“I think we are at the bottom because number one, the market for AI is still very tight”
CNBC uncut 2026-11-02 06:16 ET (5 min)
Intel's 30% single-day drop looks like a panic or forced-liquidation event rather than a true fundamental repricing, as liquidity explains these moves more than crowded-trade narratives, and the company remains fundamentally strong
“Did Intel's present value drop by 30% today or does it look like someone's panicking?”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 14:07 ET (5 min)
2026-10-30
TECH / AI
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Today's broad tech selloff is indiscriminate and liquidity-driven rather than a fundamental repricing, the 10-year yield has returned to levels supportive of risk assets, and tech remains the most important earnings driver while AI positioning is not…
“I think today it's going to prove to be a really good buying opportunity”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 14:07 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
long MSFT / long GOOGL
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Microsoft and Alphabet should react positively to earnings because expectations have been reduced and investors are becoming less alarmed by AI spending as financing remains available.
“I think the stocks are going to react positively no matter what they say.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 15:40 ET (5 min)
2026-10-22
long SEMIS / long NVDA / long MAGNIFICENT SEVEN / long SOFTWARE EQUITIES (+2 legs)
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
AI leaders, software, crypto, and other cyclicals are nearing a bottom because technology shorts have become crowded while yields have retreated and the Fed may turn dovish.
“I think they're bottoming. But I also like the software, and I like the crypto here.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 15:42 ET (5 min)
2026-10-22
long MAG-7 / long DRAM
basket
Tom Lee (newest) · video
Mag-7 and DRAM/memory names are AI bottleneck plays sold on consensus shorting rather than deteriorating fundamentals, and are near a bottom as yields pull back and the Fed turns more dovish
“the AI and the bottlenecks are the memories and the NVIDIAs and the Mag-7”
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: We're near the end stages of the AI selloff
2026-10-22
AI SOFTWARE STOCKS
bullish
Tom Lee (newest) · video
Software is a derivative beneficiary of the AI build cycle and offers a way to participate in AI beyond the hardware bottleneck names currently under selling pressure
“I also like the software”
Is the AI Sell-Off Near Its End?
2026-10-22
SOFTWARE SECTOR
bullish
Tom Lee (newest) · video
Software benefits from the broad AI cyclical recovery trade as the consensus short reverses and yields decline
“I also like the software”
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: We're near the end stages of the AI selloff
2026-10-19
long SOX / long Big Tech
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Hedge fund AI overweights have been almost entirely unwound, removing the selling pressure, while AI remains the primary visible driver of S&P earnings growth with valuations still reasonable — making the selloff a re-entry opportunity across the AI stack
“I'd be sort of jumping into the AI semiconductor, Mag7 software, these are AI downstream names”
Morning Call — 2026-10-19 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
2026-10-19
long MEMORY CHIPS / long SEMIS / long NEOCLOUDS / long TECH BROADLY (+1 legs)
basket
Fundstrat · video
Memory chips, semis, neoclouds, broad tech, and crypto have all pulled back to technical support levels while the fundamental drivers of AI remain intact, creating a coiled-spring risk/reward setup for a bounce.
“if the fundamentals remain intact, then it's a coiled spring”
Is This the Start of a Bigger Downturn?
2026-10-19
MEMORY CHIPS
bullish
Fundstrat · video
AI fundamentals remain intact while markets have become fearful at technical support, creating a good risk/reward setup for a bounce in memory names
“the setup is for a buy on the memory”
Tom Lee: Why setup is flashing a major opportunity
AI demand drivers are intact and semis have reached technical support while sentiment has turned fearful, setting up a favorable entry point
“the setup is for a buy on the memory, the semis”
Tom Lee: Why setup is flashing a major opportunity
Said again: 2026-10-22 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-19
NEOCLOUDS
bullish
Fundstrat · video
Neoclouds are a core beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout and the pullback to support with fearful sentiment creates a good risk/reward
“the neoclouds”
Tom Lee: Why setup is flashing a major opportunity
2026-10-17
long MEMORY CHIPS / long SEMIS / long NEOCLOUDS / long TECHNOLOGY STOCKS (+1 legs)
basket
Tom Lee · video
Buy the pullback across memory chips, semiconductors, neoclouds, technology, and crypto because fundamentals remain intact while fear has pushed them to support levels, creating coiled-spring upside.
“the setup is for a buy on the memory, the semis, the neo clouds, tech broadly, crypto”
Tom Lee Says Buy the AI Stock Dip NOW!!!
2026-10-16
long SMH / long MU / long NEO-CLOUD STOCKS (COREWEAVE, NEBIUS) / long Crypto Other
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
AI demand fundamentals remain intact while semis, memory, neo-clouds, tech, and crypto have all pulled back to technical support levels, making fear-driven selling a buying opportunity rather than a signal of structural breakdown
“the setup is for a buy on the memory the semis...the new clouds...tech broadly crypto”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-16 15:01 ET (30 min)
2026-10-16
long SEMIS / long Ai Infra / long BROAD TECH / long Crypto Other
basket
Tom Lee (newest) · video
Memory/semis, neo clouds, broad tech, and crypto have all pulled back to technical support levels while AI fundamental demand drivers remain intact, creating a coiled-spring risk/reward for buyers
“they've all pulled back to support levels at a time when people have become maybe very fearful of fundamentals”
Fundamental AI story and drivers are still intact, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Bitcoin is on track to exceed $100,000 by year-end as the bull cycle matures, which would act as a catalyst lifting Ethereum above its all-time high
“I think Bitcoin is going to be over 100,000”
Is Ethereum undervalued?
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Fundstrat)
2026-10-06
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Tom Lee · video
US 10-year at 5% is anomalous relative to France at 4.5-4.8% and appears driven by a momentum short rather than fundamentals, making the yield spike transitory and bonds likely to rally back
“how can the US cost of debt be 50 basis points higher than France”
Equity and crypto rallies suggest bond-yield surge is transitory: Fundstrat's Tom Lee
2026-10-05
long CRM / long NOW / long WDAY
basket
Tom Lee · video
Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Workday survived the SaaS apocalypse because their core transactional data moats and renewable enterprise contracts let them adopt agentic AI in-place, positioning them as the primary software-layer beneficiaries of the AI build-out
“a salesforce, this is why Service Now, this is why Workday...are okay, right? They're making their way back up”
Tom Lee: AI Stocks Could Be Ready for Another Big Move
Q3 EPS growth tracking ~30% and 2027 EPS revisions are up 20%+ since year-start while the S&P is not, meaning the forward multiple has actually compressed — market is cheaper than it was despite the rally, and excessive pessimism keeps positioning cautious
“there's excessive pessimism because not only is the earnings visibility good but we're also getting leadership from stocks that anticipate weaker inflation”
There's 'excessive pessimism' in the markets, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
Said again: 2026-10-05 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-05 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-06 (Tom Lee)
2026-10-05
TECH STOCKS
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Tech making new highs signals the market is already pricing easier financial conditions ahead; tech leads when inflation expectations fall and the Fed walks back hawkishness, providing both a confirming signal and a trade
“tech stocks making new highs and crypto doing so well — these can't do well in the face of tightening monetary conditions”
There's 'excessive pessimism' in the markets, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
2026-09-16
FINANCIALS
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Financials sold off reflexively on curve-flattening fears and soft-landing anxiety, but the Fed's view is that the economy is strong enough to absorb the hike, making the selloff an overreaction.
“I think it's an overreaction to the financial selling off today”
Tom Lee: Markets are overreacting to the Fed and I would be a dip buyer
Said again: 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest)), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest))
2026-09-15
MAG-7 / TECH / AI TRADE
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Mag-7 names are coming back to life and software names are strengthening, and with the AI trade expected to survive current concerns it will do the heavy lifting to drive the broader year-end rally
“tech is going to be doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Mag-7 are starting to come back to life”
FOMC could trigger a very big rally in equities, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
2026-09-10
long VRT / long MU / long DE
basket
Tom Lee · video
AI infrastructure bottleneck names (Vertiv, Micron, Deere) outperform as downstream AI demand stresses supply-constrained components and equipment, a theme driving large-cap portfolio returns
“AI bottlenecks doing very well”
TOM LEE: August Core CPI on 9/11 is key. Soft CPI = Fed on hold. Crypto driving 3Q26
AI will transform financial services into a structurally less cyclical business by rebuilding legacy infrastructure on blockchain rails, driving multiple expansion across the sector
“the industry that is about to be the most innovated by AI is financial services”
Tom Lee: Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Crypto Could Rip Higher
Said again: 2026-09-18 (The Compound)
AI infrastructure buildout creates durable energy demand; XLE is the simple, risk-managed way to own the energy theme without single-stock commodity-cycle execution risk
“my advice would be just keep it simple and stick with XLE”
Tom Lee: Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Crypto Could Rip Higher
2026-09-10
Big Tech
bullish
Wealthion · video
Software companies and the Mag 7 are downstream AI beneficiaries that will capture productivity gains as AI becomes embedded in enterprise operations, driven by the same buildout fueling the hardware bottlenecks
“you need to look at downstream ideas and that's software companies... the Mag 7”
Tom Lee: Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Crypto Could Rip Higher
Said again: 2026-09-21 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-24 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-03 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest)), 2026-11-02 (CNBC (uncut))
AI creates a third vector of economic growth beyond labor and capital, making compute bottlenecks — Nvidia, semis, and memory — the direct beneficiaries of AI unit demand growth
“you want to own bottlenecks... that's Nvidia and the semis and memory”
Tom Lee: Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Crypto Could Rip Higher
Said again: 2026-09-18 (The Compound), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest)), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest))
Banks are a large Russell 2000 weight, so AI-driven de-cyclicalization of financial services will compress discount rates and expand multiples for the small-cap index broadly
“banks are a big weight in the Russell 2000, but I think technology and AI are going to transform financial services... multiples go up”
Tom Lee: Inflation Fears Are Overblown — Crypto Could Rip Higher
2026-09-10
Small Caps
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Small caps remain attractive given easing financial conditions and a likely Fed hold, with the SMID-cap portfolio deliberately tilted smaller and dips actively bought
TOM LEE: August Core CPI on 9/11 is key. Soft CPI = Fed on hold. Crypto driving 3Q26
2026-08-27
long ETH / long BITCOIN
ratio
Tom Lee · video
The ETH/BTC ratio should expand dramatically from 0.03 back to its prior high of 0.08 and potentially to 0.25 or 1.0, as the crypto narrative for the next five years centers on tokenization and agentic AI — themes that favor Ethereum over Bitcoin
“that ratio is going to go way beyond 0.08, maybe it even goes to 0.25, maybe it even goes to one”
Tom Lee: The Next 5 Years of Crypto Will Be About Ethereum
2026-08-24
long ETH / short BITCOIN
ratio
Tom Lee · video
ETH flipping Bitcoin's market cap is a plausible multi-year outcome driven by institutional tokenization and AI settlement demand concentrating on Ethereum, implying ETH significantly outperforms BTC on a relative basis
“should ETH flip Bitcoin? I think it's a very plausible argument”
BitMine Is About to Own 5% of ETH | Tom Lee
2026-07-30
Crypto Other
bullish
Tom Lee · video
AI agent-to-agent commerce cannot scale on traditional banking rails because those rails lack programmable money, micro-payment granularity, and trustless settlement, making crypto/Ethereum the necessary second-derivative winner of the AI mega-trend
“you're going to have a lot more people talking about the necessity of having a crypto blockchain layer that sits in the middle of all this activity”
What Comes After the Chip Trade? Tom Lee on AI Agents
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-19 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-19 (Fundstrat), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest)), 2026-10-22 (Tom Lee (newest))
2026-07-27
long Big Tech / long SOFTWARE / long Crypto Other
basket
Tom Lee · video
Mag 7, software, and crypto are the downstream AI beneficiaries now beginning to outperform as AI investment matures beyond semiconductor capex into application-layer monetization
“Mag 7, software and crypto are the downstream of AI stories and they're beginning to outperform”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
The Clarity Act will create a single federal regulatory framework for crypto, opening institutional capital floodgates; Ethereum is positioned as the financial settlement layer for Wall Street stablecoins and tokenized assets, validated by Robinhood Chain…
“Clarity Act is going to provide a single agency to have oversight of the entire crypto economy...institutional adoption of crypto”
90d +19.4%
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
Said again: 2026-08-24 (Tom Lee), 2026-08-27 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-10 (Wealthion), 2026-10-13 (Fundstrat)
Bullish on Bitcoin as the leading store-of-value digital asset; holds MicroStrategy in Grayscale funds as the primary listed equity vehicle for Bitcoin treasury exposure
“I'm still quite bullish on MicroStrategy...we own it in the Grayscale funds cuz I'm bullish on Bitcoin”
90d +41.7%
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Tom Lee)
Inflation will undershoot consensus expectations because the oil shock has already peaked and the underlying drivers (housing, wages) are both weakening, forcing the Fed to cut rates while the bond market remains mispriced for hikes
“our bet is that inflation is going to undershoot expectations...the underlying inflation drivers are weakening”
90d -1.3%
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
Said again: 2026-10-05 (Tom Lee)
2026-07-27
BITMAIN IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES
bullish
Tom Lee · video
As the largest Ethereum treasury (5.78M ETH), Bitmain generates ~$300M/year in staking yield that fully covers preferred dividends with a simple capital structure, and as the only NYSE/Russell 1000 large-cap equity it is the sole vehicle for institutional…
“if you're a large manager in Boston and you want exposure to Ethereum, you have to buy Bitmain”
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
Robinhood Chain launched on Ethereum is already exceeding $1B daily volume and could generate $1B/year in new revenue for Robinhood, establishing it as first-mover on institutional tokenized asset rails and a model every Wall Street firm is now watching
“Robinhood might make a billion a year from this chain that they just launched”
90d -2.9%
Tom Lee: "We are Close to the Bottom"
Said again: 2026-09-10 (Tom Lee)
2026-07-27
Ai Infra
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Widespread durability doubts mirror the 1994–2000 internet cycle and signal we are not at a top; hyperscalers still have full bond-market access so capex cuts are unlikely, keeping the AI spending cycle intact through year-end.
“I think AI still works strongly through year end”
Tom Lee: AI trade still in very good shape despite questions about durability
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Fundstrat), 2026-10-14 (Tom Lee), 2026-10-22 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-07-11
long Big Tech / long IGV
basket
Tom Lee · video
Mag 7 and software stocks (IGV) have been de-rated and are downstream compounding beneficiaries of AI productivity gains, making risk/reward attractive after underperformance
“it's the D-rating that's taken place in all of those stocks that tells us the risk award is really attractive”
90d +13.6%
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
2026-07-11
long SOUTH KOREAN EQUITIES / long TAIWAN EQUITIES
basket
Tom Lee · video
Korea and Taiwan have structural high-beta to every incremental advance in the AI story due to their role as semiconductor and memory infrastructure partners, making their equities structural outperformers vs the US
“for every advancement in the AI story, it's Korea has a beta to that”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
Blockchain remains the superior trustless settlement layer and Wall Street is actively building on it; Bitcoin has never been down four consecutive quarters and currently trades ~5% below production cost, creating a floor, with a price target above $100K by…
“I believe you're going to see Bitcoin over 100,000 by the end of the year”
90d +29.5%
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
Said again: 2026-08-24 (Tom Lee), 2026-08-27 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-09 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-10 (Wealthion)
2026-07-11
SEMICONDUCTORS
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Near-term visibility is very good through 2026-2027 as semis enter a structurally new cycle driven by robots (which require ~50x more semiconductor content than a smartphone) and space applications, and growth managers who missed the semi/DRAM rally will…
“growth managers probably missed a lot of that semi and dram rally. I think they're going to be chasing it in the second half”
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
Amazon as a logistics company with a million industrial robots is uniquely positioned to have its TAM double as robots expand into residential construction and any logistics-adjacent market
“why won't Amazon be part of like future home construction... their TAM is, you know, doubled”
90d +6.1%
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
Microsoft's history of smart early AI investments and cloud dominance demonstrates a 'pretty decent crystal ball' that will navigate the current capex-transition period successfully despite the 24% YTD selloff
“I'm very confident both are going to play the future way smarter than the market believes”
90d +37.1%
Tom Lee: S&P 8,000. Then a Drop?
Q2 earnings will beat expectations again, compressing the market's PE further below its January level and creating room for multiple expansion toward 8,000–8,800; underperforming fund managers (only 23% beating large-cap growth) will be forced to buy any July…
“I think July's going to be a stronger month for stocks”
90d +3.4%
July will be a 'stronger month' for stocks, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee
Said again: 2026-07-09 (CNBC Television), 2026-07-10 (Tom Lee), 2026-07-11 (Tom Lee), 2026-08-13 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-10 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-15 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-16 (Tom Lee), 2026-09-18 (The Compound), 2026-09-21 (Tom Lee)
2026-06-25
SEMICONDUCTORS / AI INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Since 2011, 17 instances of a 6%+ single-day semi-index drop showed 88% win rate at 1, 3, and 6 months with median +12% at one month and +38% at six months, making the Tuesday selloff a dip-buy signal rather than a top, especially given better visibility than…
“it's not really something that you see at tops. It's actually often what you see either at the bottoms or in midcycle”
TOM LEE: As we approach mid-year, the driver for S&P 500 so far is 'E' not 'PE'
The 2-year Treasury yield leads Fed funds by ~60bps (two hikes' worth), signaling the Fed must tighten and pushing 10-year yields higher — a headwind for risk assets through year-end
“that tells me at least at the moment yields are headwind”
90d +2.2%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: The Market Is Pricing In Two Rate Hikes. Here's What He Thinks.
2026-06-14
ORBS
bullish
Tom Lee · video
Eightco (ORBS) holds World token, a stake in OpenAI, and MrBeast, yet trades at a large discount to Fundrise (VCX) which trades at 6x NAV, making it a mispriced closed-end fund with exposure to critical AI and crypto infrastructure
“Aiko gives you exposure to all these companies and is trading at a huge discount to VCX”
90d -9.0%
Tom Lee's Case for $22,000 Ethereum
A parabolic market lift over the past month has elevated expectations to levels that are now being sobered, and a $75B SpaceX IPO is forcing investors to raise cash, which Lee believes will culminate in a bear-market-like event later in 2026
“later this year there's going to be something that feels like a bear market”
90d -5.1%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee talks 'sobering' happening in the market today
Major AI companies are building large-scale infrastructure that remains underfunded relative to the opportunity, and recent breakthroughs justify continued investor patience as this capital deployment could create significant long-term value
“building land that could end up being beachfront property”
90d +3.1%
Fundstrat's Tom Lee talks 'sobering' happening in the market today
Said again: 2026-07-11 (Tom Lee)
2026-05-28
RATE-SENSITIVE EQUITIES / MOST EQUITY GROUPS
bearish
Tom Lee · video
Oil-driven inflation has created a pipeline tightening that is pushing the bond market to price a rate hike instead of easing, which makes it structurally difficult for most equity groups that require a dovish Fed to rally
Fundstrat's Tom Lee explains the 'three market phases' he is watching this year
2026-05-20
PUBLIC EQUITIES VS. ALTERNATIVES
bullish
Meb Faber · video
High-net-worth individuals and institutions are near record-low allocations to public stocks after a decade of over-allocating to alternatives, setting up a structural reallocation tailwind for public equities
“for every dollar that went into public markets, $9 probably went into alternatives”
Tom Lee: $4 Trillion of IPOs Are Coming. Are You Ready?
2026-05-15
Big Tech
bullish
Tom Lee · video
For investors wanting a larger tech bet, Mag 7 and software offer the most attractive risk profile, reinforced by Bill Ackman's Microsoft purchase, making software a top pick
“the really attractive risk is still mag 7 and software... software is actually still among our top picks right now”
90d +3.4%
Tom Lee Flags 3 Risks for Stocks
Nvidia is tied to three or four structural themes simultaneously (AI, labor shortage, energy, etc.), making it a durable core holding unlikely to be rebalanced out
“Nvidia for instance has been a Granny Shot since inception in 2019”
90d +0.1%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
Said again: 2026-05-22 (Tom Lee), 2026-07-03 (CNBC Halftime Final Trades), 2026-07-27 (Tom Lee), 2026-07-30 (Tom Lee)
Memory chip shortages are even more acute than energy shortages, making DRAM a defensive position that works even if the macro environment deteriorates due to inflation or petroleum supply concerns
“there's even bigger shortages in memory... that's why it makes sense for semis and DRAM to still do really well”
90d +11.4%
Tom Lee Flags 3 Risks for Stocks
2026-05-15
PUBLIC EQUITIES (REALLOCATION FROM ALTERNATIVES)
bullish
Meb Faber · video
High-net-worth and institutional investors are near record-low allocations to public stocks after a decade of alternatives overweighting, and mega IPOs will catalyze reallocation back into public markets
“for every dollar that went into public markets, $9 probably went into alternatives”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
2026-05-15
GRNY
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Owning large-cap stocks exposed to multiple structural themes (AI, energy, cybersecurity, demographics) improves odds of outperformance versus single-theme concentration
“stocks that are in four themes today are Nvidia, Chevron, Google, and Meta”
90d +5.4%
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
Said again: 2026-07-27 (Tom Lee)
2026-05-15
SOFTWARE STOCKS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Software stocks have retraced to 15-year relative price lows, meaning the 'software is eating the world' thesis has been fully unpriced, creating positive risk-reward
“the entire software is eating the world thesis has been unwritten in just the last 6 months”
Tom Lee: Everyone Still Thinks This Market Will Crash
Said again: 2026-05-20 (Meb Faber), 2026-06-01 (Tom Lee), 2026-06-14 (Tom Lee)
Showing the 60 most recent of 164 tracked stances.
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