Investors / stance tracking
What Chris Whalen is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowBanking analyst — Whalen Global Advisors
72 dated public stances tracked since 2025-09-03, most recently 2026-10-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chris Whalen's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chris Whalen is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
72
tracked stances
48
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-24
last heard
Returns 90d -4.3% 34% correct · 32 calls · 180d -1.4% 42% correct · 19 calls · 1y +17.7% 83% correct · 6 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | SILVER | bullish | -8.0% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | Mortgage Reits | owns | -17.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +1.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | HOUSING | bearish | +9.4% | — | — |
| 2026-07-25 | GOLD | bullish | -2.1% | — | — |
| 2026-07-11 | OIL | bullish | +25.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-27 | MSTR | bearish | -71.1% | — | — |
| 2026-06-20 | COPPER | bullish | +3.7% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | ENERGY | owns | +10.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-30 | Private Credit | bearish | -7.3% | — | — |
| 2026-05-23 | NVDA | bearish | -0.1% | — | — |
| 2026-05-23 | BITCOIN | bearish | -2.2% | — | — |
| 2026-05-23 | AMD | owns | -6.1% | — | — |
| 2026-04-18 | long Mortgage Reits / long Mortgage Reits / long HOUSING / long RITHM CAPITAL | basket | -0.5% | -17.0% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | long GOLD / long GOLD / long Gold Miners / long SILVER | basket | -22.8% | -16.8% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | USTS | bearish | +1.1% | +3.8% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | Mortgage Reits | bullish | -0.4% | -19.6% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +1.8% | +6.0% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | HOUSING | bullish | -0.9% | -11.9% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | Gold Miners | bullish | -28.1% | -12.2% | — |
| 2026-04-18 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | -4.0% | +4.1% | — |
| 2026-04-11 | USD | bearish | -3.7% | -5.8% | — |
| 2026-04-11 | SILVER | bullish | -21.0% | -21.7% | — |
| 2026-04-11 | HOUSING | bearish | -3.1% | +8.7% | — |
| 2026-04-11 | GOLD | bullish | -13.4% | -13.0% | — |
| 2026-04-11 | BANKS | bearish | -9.1% | -1.4% | — |
| 2025-09-03 | USD | bearish | -2.5% | -2.8% | -5.3% |
| 2025-09-03 | NVDA | owns | +6.4% | +7.0% | +34.1% |
| 2025-09-03 | Mortgage Reits | owns | +1.4% | +4.8% | +3.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -3.7% | -5.8% | +0.9% |
| 2025-09-03 | GOLD | bullish | +18.0% | +49.3% | +25.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | C | bullish | +9.2% | +18.6% | +48.4% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-10-24 | |
| Mortgage Reits | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-17 | |
| HOUSING | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-07-25 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-07-25 | |
| NVDA | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-29 | |
| USTS | 3 | 2 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-24 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Global central banks are actively buying gold to diversify reserves away from dollars — gold is now the largest central-bank reserve asset — and recent price weakness is an opportunity to add to a long-term asymmetric position
“I continue to see it as an asymmetrical trade”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
Copper is among the most attractive commodities as a real-asset diversifier alongside gold and energy, accessible via ETFs
“copper, which to me is one of the most attractive commodities of all”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
Without renewed Fed balance-sheet expansion, 10-year yields will remain near current levels rather than rallying to 4%, because markets have normalized after 15 years of Fed intervention that artificially suppressed duration
“I think we are probably going to see 10-year bond yields stay more or less where they are”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
2026-10-24
Gse Mortgage
bearish
Julia La Roche Show (feed) · video
GSE common shares are a 'pump and dump' on privatization headlines because the US owns 95% on a fully diluted basis and any reduction below 50% would trigger downgrades from Moody's and S&P, making true privatization structurally impossible during Trump's term
“There isn't really a possibility of release of the GSEs during the Trump term”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
2026-10-24
FINANCIALS
bearish
Julia La Roche Show (feed) · video
Credit problems are beginning to surface as COVID-era mortgage forbearance protections expire, foreclosure auctions are up 25% year-over-year, and home-price softening is eroding the buffer that had kept losses contained
“I am very cautious on all of the financials right now”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
2026-10-24
CONSUMER PRODUCTS COMPANIES
bearish
Julia La Roche Show (feed) · video
Consumer staples and packaged-goods companies face sustained margin compression because diesel prices remain structurally elevated and trucking is the primary distribution channel for all retail goods
“you've got to be careful with consumer products companies here because they are suffering a lot of margin pressure due to higher diesel prices”
Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming
Iran war keeps Gulf State refining capacity offline, diesel and gasoline remain structurally elevated, and the winter heating season will divert refining away from motor fuels, pushing prices higher
“we rebalance to focus more on energy and get away from consumer products and financials”
Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
Said again: 2026-10-24 (Julia La Roche Show (feed))
2026-10-17
Mortgage Reits
neutral
Julia La Roche Show · video
Annaly is one of the best-run mortgage REITs and is currently trading near fair value at book; as a pure income vehicle it is appropriately priced and becomes more attractive if it dips below book
“I own Annaly for income purposes…it's currently my largest position”
Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
2026-10-17
BANK STOCKS / FINANCIALS
short
Julia La Roche Show · video
Wall Street fee activity will slow as the AI margin-loan boom fades, while banks face growing unrealized losses from low-coupon COVID-era mortgages in a higher-for-longer rate environment
“I am right now I'm short a couple of names in the bank space”
Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike
2026-10-10
long ENERGY / long ENERGY / long WMB
basket
Julia La Roche Show · video
Middle East war damage to Persian Gulf refining capacity will take years to repair regardless of a ceasefire, sustaining energy demand and prices while progressive clean-energy mandates face political headwinds
“I own shares of Exxon, Chevron, and also Williams...they're all pretty expensive, but they could get even more expensive”
Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About
2026-10-03
long ENERGY / short BANK STOCKS / FINANCIALS
pair
Julia La Roche Show · video
Rising energy prices driven by Middle East conflict and persistent inflation lift energy sector earnings while spreading consumer credit defaults and cooling Wall Street revenues erode bank profitability
“long energy short financials is probably a good place to be”
Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
2026-10-03
FLAGSTAR BANK
owns
Julia La Roche Show · video
Flagstar is a distinct turnaround situation structurally different from the broader bank sector he is bearish on, held at a low single-digit price as a special situation rather than a financial-sector bet
“I still own Flagstar, which is a turnaround situation. It's very different.”
Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials
2026-09-19
INSURANCE COMPANIES WITH PRIVATE-CREDIT EXPOSURE
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Private-equity-controlled life insurers (e.g. those affiliated with Guggenheim, Apollo, 'Triple 7') have piled leverage and dubious assets onto their balance sheets to accelerate equity returns, and when those portfolio companies default the carriers will…
“private credit is the fuse and the insurers are the bomb. I agree with him”
Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty — Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit & a Sidelined Fed
2026-09-19
US RESIDENTIAL HOUSING
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
More than half of US homes fell in price over the past year and the 150M-unit stock is beginning to turn down, with a significant correction expected as elevated rates persist and the Fed cannot ride to the rescue as in the past
“we're going to see a significant correction in home prices between now and 2028”
Chris Whalen: Age of Uncertainty — Falling Home Prices, Cracks in Private Credit & a Sidelined Fed
Structural fiscal deficit, erosion of foreign confidence in US policy under Trump/Bessent, and the Fed's unwillingness to restart QE mean long-end yields reset structurally higher with 5% as the new floor and 5.5% as the next target
“to me, what we're seeing here is a reset of interest rates, of the cost of capital that goes back 15 years”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
2026-09-12
HEATING OIL / REFINED PRODUCTS
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Seasonal refinery maintenance taking capacity offline this fall, combined with the switch from diesel exports to domestic heating-oil demand and ongoing Iran-war supply disruptions, will push refined product prices significantly higher
“as refiners have to take facilities offline for maintenance... we're going to shift to heating oil and that's going to go up in price again”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Bought cheaply as a turnaround story; Whalen has deep familiarity with the management team and high conviction in their execution ability, making it the only large-bank-adjacent name he personally holds
“the only two banks I own are Flagstar, which I bought for very cheap because it's a turnaround story”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Schwab benefits from structural AUM growth driven by an inflationary environment pushing investors toward higher-yielding assets, making it a way to own the growing asset-management fee stream without taking on credit risk
“I own Schwab because of growth. It's a way to benefit from the increase in assets under management, which is about inflation”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Said again: 2026-09-19 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-09-12
US HOME PRICES / HOUSING CORRECTION
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Florida's sharp home-price correction — driven by unaffordable rates and over-built supply in pandemic boom markets — is a leading indicator that will spread to the rest of the country in 2027, making housing broadly the wrong place to be for price…
“We're going to see a home price correction... you're going to see this spread to the rest of the country next year”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Interest-rate uncertainty makes bank earnings and net-interest-margin visibility poor; the leaders of 2025 (JPMorgan, Citi) are no longer moving and Whalen sees no catalyst for price appreciation, preferring to look elsewhere for bank exposure
“you don't see JP Morgan and Citi, which were the leaders last year... I would look elsewhere”
Chris Whalen: $100 Oil, 5% Rates, and a Home Price Correction Coming for the Whole Country
Nvidia's practice of financing its own AI customers creates circular credit risk and makes the apparent revenue growth dependent on its own lending, which Whalen views as a structural vulnerability in an already overheated AI trade.
“I worry about Nvidia — they're financing their customers, that is kind of a circular situation.”
Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk
Said again: 2026-10-17 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-08-29
AYA
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Commercial industrial demand for silver supports a distinct investment thesis from gold's monetary-hedge role, and AYA is a small-cap pure-play vehicle on that demand.
“Because of the commercial demand for silver, you definitely want to have some of that in your portfolio.”
Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on Gold, the Fed, and Retirement Risk
2026-08-22
long Mortgage Reits / long Mortgage Reits
basket
Julia La Roche Show · video
Annaly and AGNC offer meaningfully higher yield than Treasuries, which are below inflation, making mortgage REITs the preferred yield vehicle — Whalen currently owns both
Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on the Fed, Rates & the Next Bailout
2026-08-22
JAPANESE YEN (JPY)
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Japan's rates remain far below US rates, the yen carry trade is structurally unwinding, and neither the Fed nor Treasury can prevent continued yen depreciation — entropy is in charge
“I personally think the yen is going to continue to weaken”
Chris Whalen Answers Your Questions on the Fed, Rates & the Next Bailout
2026-08-15
UWMC
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
United Wholesale Mortgage overstated servicing asset values by roughly 20-25% to borrow against them, was never truly profitable, and has been extracting cash for years — Oaktree's $1.5B rescue signals the severity and will likely force out management and…
“I think they were overvaluing their servicing assets by about 20, 25%. And that's a no-no”
Chris Whalen: Private Credit's First Big Unwind — and Why Insurance Is Next
Said again: 2026-10-17 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-08-15
AI COMPANY VALUATIONS
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Chinese competitors (DeepSeek-class firms) offer equivalent AI functionality at a tenth the cost, destroying the pricing power and valuation assumptions underpinning US AI companies without stopping the capex spending race
“all of the valuation assumptions for the Anthropics of the world are being just torn to shreds”
Chris Whalen: Private Credit's First Big Unwind — and Why Insurance Is Next
Both PennyMac Mortgage Trust and its manager PennyMac Financial have repeatedly struggled to navigate the rising-rate environment correctly, making them less attractive than better-managed mREIT peers like Annaly in the same yield-seeking thesis
“I'm not as keen on PennyMac because both PennyMac Mortgage Trust and PennyMac Financial have had some trouble getting it right recently”
90d +9.4%
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
Central banks globally are adding to gold stocks as prices dip, physical delivery constraints cap available supply, and gold serves as a monetary store of value hedge against persistent commodity-input inflation approaching double digits
“I'm continuing to be very bullish on both metals”
90d -2.1%
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
Said again: 2026-08-15 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-08-29 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-19 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-07-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
The Treasury's 6%-of-GDP fiscal deficit is running the economy structurally hot, making the Fed's 2% inflation target 'laughable' and pushing the 10-year yield toward and above 5% in a sustained higher-for-longer regime
“You may see that 10-year Treasury go above 5%”
90d +1.7%
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
Said again: 2026-08-22 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-10-10 (Julia La Roche Show)
China is scouring the planet buying physical silver for delivery (not speculation), inelastic commercial and tech demand creates a hard floor with no substitute, and the supply-demand imbalance is more acute than gold with less downside risk from further…
“When the price gets down to a certain point, people are going to buy it because they realize how much of an imbalance there is between supply and demand”
90d -8.0%
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
Said again: 2026-08-15 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-12 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-19 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-07-25
Mortgage Reits
owns
Julia La Roche Show · video
Annaly manages spread risk well, holds a balanced portfolio including mortgage servicing rights (negative duration but income-generating), trades around NAV, and is a reliable high-yield vehicle — he rolled T-bills directly into Annaly and will add more on…
“I own Annaly, I own AGNC for cash. I don't even have any T-bills right now, they all rolled off and I just stuck them in Annaly”
90d -17.1%
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
Said again: 2026-08-29 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-19 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-07-25
BHLL
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Bunker Hill Mine is going into production later this year for silver (plus zinc and copper), targeting a 50/50 silver mix, representing a domestic US supply story on a metal with a severe supply-demand imbalance and no cheap alternative data source
“They're going to be going into production later this year for both metals, zinc, copper, and silver”
Chris Whalen: 5% Yields, 7% Mortgages, Double-Digit Inflation & the End of the Party
US physical oil inventories at 20-year lows, ongoing Iran-US hostilities blocking Middle East supply recovery, and continued strong economic demand will produce refined product shortages and meaningfully higher prices into fall 2026
“diesel prices are up 30% this year — diesel ripples through just about every part of the US economy”
90d +25.8%
Chris Whalen: One Rate Hike Coming, Iran Peace Unlikely, Double-Digit Inflation Inevitable
Said again: 2026-09-12 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-09-19 (Julia La Roche Show)
Wall Street institutionalized crypto via ETFs as a distribution mechanism and is now exiting, leaving MicroStrategy structurally exposed as the institutional bid collapses.
“Micro Strategy is in big trouble, I think.”
90d -71.1%
Chris Whalen: Private Credit's Slow Motion Train Wreck & The Warning Signs for a 2028 Housing Reset
Said again: 2026-07-25 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-06-20
AI AND SOFTWARE STOCKS
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Liquidity is draining from equity markets as bond yields rise and attract capital reallocation from equities; 10x moves in 12 months signal a bubble top, with software already down 20–30% since June 1 and AI still to follow
“I'm preparing for the next thing, which is probably a sell-off in tech and AI”
Whalen: Bond Market Already Hiked, Double-Digit Inflation Still Ahead, Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed
Structural supply shortage in copper against rising industrial demand — not enough is being mined to meet needs — makes it a medium-term accumulation trade
“Copper is in short supply ... we need copper for pretty much everything in the industrial sector”
90d +3.7%
Whalen: Bond Market Already Hiked, Double-Digit Inflation Still Ahead, Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed
2026-06-20
SPACEX
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
SpaceX holds a de facto monopoly on commercial orbital launch AND global satellite internet (Starlink) with no credible competitor, making it a durable long-term compounder regardless of Elon Musk's political exposure
“this guy has a monopoly on putting things in space. He has a monopoly on global internet services”
Whalen: Bond Market Already Hiked, Double-Digit Inflation Still Ahead, Warsh Sets New Tone at Fed
2026-06-06
AI TECH STOCKS (BROAD)
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
The AI trade is momentum-driven rather than fundamentals-based, community opposition to data center construction is a growing political headwind, and Whalen has already been selling his positions after 150-200% gains
“I think there is a momentum quality to what's going on here... the AI trade, which I think is almost done. I've been selling my tech stocks”
Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead
Persian Gulf refinery damage is driving a structural energy supply shock that will persist for years, making well-managed oil majors like Chevron beneficiaries; Whalen bought back in after taking profits
“I got right back into Chevron... it's one of the best managed oil companies in the world”
90d +10.6%
Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead
Said again: 2026-08-15 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-06-06
HIGH-END SYNTHETIC LUBRICANTS (SUPPLY RATIONING THEME)
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Destruction of key Persian Gulf petrochemical plants has created a structural shortage of high-end synthetic lubricants critical for turbines, hybrid vehicles, and complex engines, with de facto rationing already underway and set to intensify by mid-year
“Rationing of key high-end lubricants... He sees rationing as a fact way before the midterm elections”
Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead
2026-06-06
DIESEL FUEL / REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Persian Gulf refinery destruction and nations prioritizing domestic diesel over exports will cause pronounced shortages and rising prices by July-August, hitting transportation and consumer prices across the economy
“diesel fuel prices are going to continue to rise”
Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead
2026-05-30
Private Credit
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
US private credit default rates hit a record 6% in April—10x bank default rates—indicating the asset class is priced at single-B/triple-C quality and losses will accelerate as the cycle turns
“Fitch Ratings reports that US private credit default rate hit a record of 6% in April, which is 10 times the default rate for US banks”
90d -7.3%
Whalen: Bank Outlook, Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike May Be Coming, Private Credit Defaults
Said again: 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-05-30
BANK OF AMERICA / CHARLES SCHWAB (LEGACY LOW-COUPON SECURITIES HOLDERS)
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Banks still holding large portfolios of COVID-era low-coupon securities face rising unrealized losses and balance sheet illiquidity as rates remain elevated, locking up capital
“banks that still have a lot of legacy low coupon paper like the Bank Americas and the Schwabs, you're going to see unrealized losses rise”
Whalen: Bank Outlook, Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike May Be Coming, Private Credit Defaults
2026-05-30
AI-RELATED EQUITIES (CROWDED TRADE)
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
AI stocks have become a crowded momentum trade disconnected from profitability fundamentals, with other market sectors not participating, creating a lopsided and vulnerable market structure
“this AI thing is getting really silly. This is what you call a crowded trade on Wall Street”
Whalen: Bank Outlook, Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike May Be Coming, Private Credit Defaults
2026-05-30
FED FUNDS RATE HIKE (MACRO RATE CALL)
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
A majority of FOMC members may favor a July rate hike as forward-cut language is removed from the June statement, but Whalen believes hiking into war-driven inflation would destroy Fed credibility without curbing prices
“I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July”
Whalen: Bank Outlook, Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike May Be Coming, Private Credit Defaults
Wall Street ETFs have introduced passive investment mechanics into crypto that drag prices down in selloffs, and large holders like Michael Saylor reversing stance signals the bloom is off the rose for the asset class
“Wall Street ultimately killed Bitcoin”
90d -2.2%
Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes
Said again: 2026-06-06 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
AMD was bought when unloved and has outperformed Nvidia, benefiting from AI buildout spending while Nvidia has become too well-known for alpha generation
“we own AMD...it's up dramatically...moving much better than Nvidia”
90d -6.1%
Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes
Nvidia has become too widely known and commonplace, reducing alpha potential as investors rotate to less crowded AI names, and data center regulation poses a headwind to the AI buildout theme
“Nvidia's kind of almost got to be too well-known, too commonplace”
90d -0.1%
Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes
Said again: 2026-06-06 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-05-23
FED RATE HIKES / SHORT-DURATION RATES
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
War-driven inflation and loss of FOMC consensus for cuts makes a rate hike as early as July likely, forcing a hawkish pivot in Fed guidance
“we're going to have a rate hike perhaps as early as July”
Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes
2026-04-18
long GOLD / long GOLD / long Gold Miners / long SILVER
basket
Julia La Roche Show · video
Precious metals and junior miners are attractive because productive capacity in mining is so scarce that larger players will be forced to acquire smaller producers, driving consolidation, while gold and silver also provide inflation hedges; Whalen personally…
“I like the miners because there's so little productive capacity in the industry right now”
90d -22.8% · 180d -16.8%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
2026-04-18
long Mortgage Reits / long Mortgage Reits / long HOUSING / long RITHM CAPITAL
basket
Julia La Roche Show · video
In a high-inflation, income-scarce environment, mortgage REITs offering returns in the teens become the preferred destination for yield-hungry investors who can no longer find real returns in traditional fixed income
“income is going to be very dear; people are going to be looking for assets with income”
90d -0.5% · 180d -17.0%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
With inflation running well above T-bill yields and no Fed cuts expected, holders are locking in a guaranteed negative real return for the foreseeable future
“owning T-bills right now, given the inflation outlook, is a loser”
90d +1.1% · 180d +3.8%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Said again: 2026-05-30 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-07-11 (Julia La Roche Show)
Mortgage REITs and related platforms offer scarce income in an inflationary environment where traditional fixed income yields negative real returns
“PennyMac. All of them have interesting securities”
90d -0.9% · 180d -11.9%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Said again: 2026-05-30 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-20 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-04-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
With inflation remaining elevated due to supply-chain disruptions from the Iran conflict, T-bills offer negative real returns and bonds underperform equities in inflationary environments
“owning T-bills right now, given the inflation outlook, is a loser. You're clearly not getting a real return”
90d +1.8% · 180d +6.0%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Said again: 2026-05-23 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-04-18
Mortgage Reits
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
In an inflationary, income-scarce environment, mortgage REITs like Annaly offering teen-level returns provide superior income versus bonds or T-bills
“people buy things like Annaly and the other mortgage REITs because they offer returns in the teens”
90d -0.4% · 180d -19.6%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Said again: 2026-05-23 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-05-30 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-20 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
2026-04-18
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Structural decline in office utilization and rising delinquencies are forcing mark-downs and tax abatements on older commercial properties, creating a persistent drag on bank earnings and property values
“commercial real estate is going to continue to be a source of expenses for US banks”
90d -4.0% · 180d +4.1%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
2026-04-18
Gold Miners
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
Scarce productive mining capacity will force larger producers to acquire junior miners, driving consolidation and premium valuations for smaller gold producers
“I like the miners because there's so little productive capacity in the industry right now”
90d -28.1% · 180d -12.2%
Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Mortgage rates remain elevated due to a higher 10-year Treasury driven by inflation, war risk, and deficit concerns, crimping affordability and pushing volumes and prices to a cyclical peak with flat-to-down trajectory ahead
“I think last year and even the first quarter of this year may have been the peak statistically”
90d -3.1% · 180d +8.7%
Chris Whalen: No Vision of Victory in Iran, Housing Has Peaked (For Now) & Time To Buy Gold
Said again: 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
Global central banks are continuously accumulating gold and there is insufficient supply to meet demand, making price appreciation structurally inevitable, while recent price dips offer asymmetric upside entry points
“I still think that both gold and silver are asymmetrical bull trades for different reasons”
90d -13.4% · 180d -13.0%
Chris Whalen: No Vision of Victory in Iran, Housing Has Peaked (For Now) & Time To Buy Gold
Said again: 2026-04-18 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-05-23 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-05-30 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-06 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-20 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
Silver has broad commercial applications and there is insufficient deliverable supply in major markets, with Asian markets now acting as price setters and showing significant pricing differentials versus Western markets
“Silver is kind of a broader play because of the commercial application and the fact that there is not enough deliverable supply”
90d -21.0% · 180d -21.7%
Chris Whalen: No Vision of Victory in Iran, Housing Has Peaked (For Now) & Time To Buy Gold
Said again: 2026-04-18 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-05-23 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-05-30 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-06 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-20 (Julia La Roche Show), 2026-06-27 (Julia La Roche Show)
Showing the 60 most recent of 72 tracked stances.
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