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Investors / stance tracking

What Ben Felix is saying

CIO, PWL Capital

55 dated public stances tracked since 2023-05-11, most recently 2026-06-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Ben Felix's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Ben Felix is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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55
tracked stances
49
themes
1
side flips
2026-06-11
last heard
Returns  90d -3.3% (n=13)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bullish2023-08-29 → bearish2026-04-30

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
USTS41 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral2026-05-31
BITCOIN22 neutral2026-04-30
COVERED CALL ETFS22 bearish2026-05-31
ENERGY22 bearish2026-04-30
AVANTIS INVESTORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS, CANADA)11 bullish2026-03-22
AVUV11 bullish2026-05-19

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-06-11 SPACEX IPO RETAIL ALLOCATION bearish Ben Felix · video
Retail IPO access historically produces ~60% declines vs offer price after one year due to adverse selection (issuers push aggressively-priced deals on less-informed retail) and attention-driven buying frenzies that fade post-launch, and SpaceX replicates the…
“If a retail investor can get an IPO allocation, they don't want it”
SpaceX IPO Situation is Crazy
2026-05-31 RETAIL OPTIONS TRADING bearish Ben Felix · video
Retail investors lost an aggregate $2.1 billion trading options in a recent sample period, primarily due to wide bid-ask spreads averaging 12.6% on short-dated speculative options, making zero-commission marketing misleading about true costs
“aggregate portfolio of retail investors lost $2.1 billion trading options from November 2019 to June 2021”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 COVERED CALL ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Covered call ETFs cap upside while leaving downside fully exposed, reducing long-term expected returns and recovery potential after drawdowns, making them inferior to simply owning the underlying index and drawing down as needed
“covered call funds are not good investments in general, do not generate passive income, and create unnecessary layers of risk and costs”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS bearish Ben Felix · video
Private equity's outperformance disappears once properly adjusted for higher market beta (roughly 2x for buyouts) and illiquidity, leaving risk-adjusted returns statistically indistinguishable from zero versus public equities
“private equity's performance is fully explained by taking on more public equity market risk than a public equity index”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 MARGIN INVESTING / LEVERAGED RETAIL ACCOUNTS bearish Ben Felix · video
Empirical data shows margin account holders trade more actively, more speculatively, and less profitably than cash account holders, making margin a wealth-destructive tool for most retail investors despite broker marketing emphasizing its 'power'
“investors with margin accounts trade more actively, more speculatively, and importantly less profitably”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 USTS neutral Ben Felix · video
Publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs deliver comparable total returns to private credit funds while offering liquidity, transparency, and lower costs
“realized total return since inception...is in line with a publicly-traded high-yield bond ETF”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 Private Credit bearish Ben Felix · video
Private credit headline yields overstate total returns because loan losses and volatility drag realized returns down to levels equivalent to publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs, with added illiquidity and higher fees
“total returns in credit investments tend to trail their headline yield”
90d -8.0%
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 LOW-COST INDEX FUNDS (DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS, AVANTIS ETFS) bullish Ben Felix · video
Low-cost index funds charge minimal fees, carry no kickback incentives distorting advisor recommendations, and outperform the heavily marketed alternatives discussed, making them the rational default for most investors
“The funds that I find most sensible don't tend to advertise at all, which probably helps to explain their low fees”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31 THEMATIC ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Thematic ETFs underperform broad market benchmarks by ~6% on average in the 5 years post-launch because exciting growth themes are already priced in at launch, and 100% of Canadian-listed thematic funds have either closed or underperformed at the 10-year…
“100% of Canadian listed thematic funds either closing or underperforming at the 10-year horizon”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-19 GLOBAL EQUITIES (100% EQUITY PORTFOLIO) bullish Ben Felix · video
For long-horizon early retirees with flexible spending, 100% equities avoids the real-return risk of nominal bonds and historically supports safe withdrawal rates better than stock/bond blends, especially when spending can be adjusted dynamically
“if you can spend conservatively and be flexible in your spending, I don't think you have to diversify outside of equities”
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-05-19 USTS bearish Ben Felix · video
Nominal bonds carry high real-return risk over very long horizons because they are not inflation-adjusted, making them unsuitable for early retirees with multi-decade time horizons
“the probability of losing money in nominal bonds over a long period of time is actually pretty high”
90d -0.7%
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-05-19 AVUV bullish Ben Felix · video
AVUV is constrained to small caps and tilts more toward small cap growth within that universe, making it a viable small-cap value factor exposure with slightly smaller average market cap than DFSV
“AVUV is actually a little bit smaller on average than DFSV”
90d +9.8%
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-05-19 DFSV bullish Ben Felix · video
DFSV is tightly constrained within the small cap value universe, offering purer factor exposure than AVUV for investors seeking disciplined small-cap value tilts
“DFSV is very constrained within the small cap value universe”
90d +11.9%
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-04-30 INTERNATIONALLY DIVERSIFIED EQUITY PORTFOLIO (1/3 DOMESTIC, 2/3 INTERNATIONAL STOCKS) bullish Ben Felix · video
A paper simulating a million lifetimes across 39 countries back to 1890 found 100% equities with roughly 1/3 domestic and 2/3 international stocks maximized retirement consumption utility and minimized probability of ruin, partly because international stocks…
“a 100% equity portfolio with a big chunk in international stocks is optimal”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE (TORONTO CONDOS) bearish Ben Felix · video
Canadian real estate, especially Toronto condos, is in one of the largest inflation-adjusted price drawdowns since 1975 after years of unsustainable price gains driven by record immigration and low interest rates that have now reversed, making near-term price…
“Canada is right now in one of the biggest real estate price drawdowns, when you adjust for inflation, going back to 1975”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 ENERGY bearish Ben Felix · video
Thematic ETFs are typically launched after asset prices in a hot sector have already risen sharply, so investors buy at peak valuations and subsequently earn poor returns as prices revert
“the asset prices come down, then the returns on thematic funds tend to be very poor”
90d +1.0%
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 COVERED CALL ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Covered call products exploit investors' income bias by delivering option premium income while silently capping upside participation, resulting in an implied cost that most investors do not realize they are paying
“you're giving up so much upside that I don't think most investors realize”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX FUNDS (BROAD MARKET) bullish Ben Felix · video
Academic research and historical data show low-cost index funds capturing market returns will outperform most active strategies over the long term, and the hard part is simply staying invested rather than finding the right strategy
“investing's been solved. We're going to use index funds. That's it.”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 USTS bearish Ben Felix · video
Bonds are riskier than conventionally believed for long-term investors because high inflation periods decimate them in real terms, making the standard glide-path toward bonds as investors age suboptimal
“bonds, which are typically considered safe, are actually a little bit riskier than we may have thought”
90d +0.9%
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30 BITCOIN neutral Ben Felix · video
Bitcoin solved a genuine technical problem but has evolved into a speculative and ideological asset without investment merit sufficient to warrant allocation, so PWL does not include it in client portfolios
“we've decided not to touch it... I personally don't touch it”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-05 LOW-FLOAT MEGA IPOS (SPACEX, OPENAI) bearish Ben Felix · video
Low-float IPOs (below 5% float) for large-revenue companies have underperformed the market by roughly 50% from offer price and over 60% from first-day close within three years, and SpaceX's implied 100x price-to-sales ratio amplifies this risk
“10 of the 11 IPOs underperformed the market within three years with average underperformance of roughly 50%”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05 IPOS / NEW PUBLIC LISTINGS bearish Ben Felix · video
IPOs historically underperform the market by ~19 percentage points over three years on a buy-and-hold basis because companies go public when insiders believe shares are fully or overvalued, and the stocks behave like small, low-profitability, high-investment…
“investing in IPOs is one of the worst investment strategies that exists”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05 IPO ETF (RENAISSANCE IPO ETF) bearish Ben Felix · video
The Renaissance IPO ETF has underperformed VTI by more than 6 percentage points annualized since inception, confirming the empirical new-issues puzzle in live fund data
“It has underperformed VTI by more than six percentage points annualized since inception”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05 DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS FUNDS (IPO-AVOIDANCE STRATEGY) bullish Ben Felix · video
Funds that avoid IPOs for ~1 year post-listing and tilt away from small-growth/low-profitability stocks sidestep the index rebalancing performance drag of 47–70 basis points per year and adverse IPO selection costs borne by standard index funds
“this issue right here is one of the reasons that I don't use them personally or for the clients of PWL Capital”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05 XOVR bearish Ben Felix · video
Despite SpaceX reportedly rising in value since XOVR invested in December 2024, the fund has lost money in absolute and relative terms due to illiquidity of SPV structures and complexity costs, illustrating that coveted private-market access vehicles destroy…
“the more you covet something, the more you should probably question your desire to own it”
90d -25.2%
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-03-22 RMW bullish Ben Felix · video
Companies with robust profitability deliver higher expected returns than those with weak profitability, as captured by the RMW factor in the Fama-French five-factor model which improves explanatory power to ~95% of return differences
“the five-factor model did help to solve some problems that the three-factor model couldn't”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22 DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS) bullish Ben Felix · video
DFA funds deliver systematic, low-cost exposure to academically validated return factors (market, size, value, profitability, investment) and have a decades-long track record of doing so effectively
“their track record using these strategies has been very good over decades”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22 CMA bullish Ben Felix · video
Companies that grow assets slowly (conservative investment) tend to outperform aggressive asset growers, representing a priced systematic factor in the Fama-French five-factor model
“companies that grow their assets slowly, conservative, tend to outperform those that pour cash into rapid asset growth”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22 SMB bullish Ben Felix · video
Small stocks have systematically higher expected returns than large stocks due to exposure to a priced risk factor (SMB) that cannot be explained by market beta alone, as documented in Fama-French research
“evidence suggests that long-term expected returns are driven by exposure to specific factors”
90d +0.8%
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22 AVANTIS INVESTORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS, CANADA) bullish Ben Felix · video
Avantis offers similar factor-based investment strategies to DFA and has recently launched ETFs in Canada via CIBC, providing Canadian investors with low-cost access to academically grounded factor premiums
“Avantis Investors, a dimensional competitor, launched similar products, and they have just launched ETFs in Canada”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22 HML bullish Ben Felix · video
Value stocks have systematically higher expected returns than growth stocks due to exposure to a priced risk factor (HML) that represents compensation for bearing a form of systematic risk
“investors may achieve higher expected returns by tilting toward certain types of stocks”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-01-11 BUFFER ETFS / DEFINED OUTCOME ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Buffer ETFs charge high fees (e.g., 0.73% vs 0.09% for underlying), use costly options that deliver inconsistent downside protection outside target periods, and are outperformed on average even in drawdowns by simple low-cost equity/cash combinations
“simple, low-cost alternatives like mixing equities with cash generally outperform buffer funds on average”
The Rise of ETF Slop
2026-01-11 ENERGY bearish Ben Felix · video
Thematic ETFs systematically launch after themes have already delivered high returns, leading to average underperformance of ~6% per year post-launch as inflated expectations revert, while charging higher fees
“just over 10% of thematic funds globally outperform at the 10-year horizon”
90d -24.0% · 180d -20.5%
The Rise of ETF Slop
2026-01-11 LEVERAGED SINGLE STOCK ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Leveraged single stock ETFs underperform a simple frictionless leverage benchmark by over 9% per year due to daily rebalancing drag and financing costs embedded in swap contracts, with 56% delivering negative absolute returns at a one-year horizon
“long-levered single stock ETFs underperform a simple frictionless leverage benchmark by an average of 0.79% per month”
The Rise of ETF Slop
2026-01-11 COVERED CALL ETFS (YIELD/INCOME ETFS) bearish Ben Felix · video
Covered call ETFs mechanically cap upside returns while offering minimal downside protection, causing total returns to trail underlying equities, leaving even income-focused investors worse off than a simple index fund plus occasional sales strategy
“covered call funds leave investors worse off rather than better”
The Rise of ETF Slop
2025-12-28 TSX bullish Ben Felix · video
International diversification remains essential because single-country markets including the US can underperform for extended periods, and Canada's 29.46% return in 2025 demonstrates that negative economic headlines are often already priced in, making…
“international diversification is still not dead”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 SPX neutral Ben Felix · video
Elevated US valuations historically correlate with lower future returns, and extreme index concentration (top-7 = 32% of market) combined with high CAPE-style valuations warrants using more modest return assumptions, though neither metric is a reliable…
“high stock valuations should lead to more moderate expected returns for that stock market”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 CANADIAN REAL ESTATE (TORONTO HOUSING MARKET) bearish Ben Felix · video
Toronto composite home prices have fallen ~26% from the 2022 peak driven by tighter immigration policy and higher interest rates, and renter wealth now exceeds owner wealth on average across 12 Canadian cities, undermining the conventional wisdom that owning…
“renting is not a bad financial decision as long as the renter saves diligently”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 GOLD bearish Ben Felix · video
Gold's long-run expected real return is only ~1% above inflation based on academic research spanning large datasets, and historically high gold prices are typically followed by lower future returns, making buying after a 57% year a poor risk-adjusted decision.
“the base rate expected long-term return for gold is low”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 XCS bullish Ben Felix · video
Canadian small-cap and value stocks have historically-grounded return premiums that tend to arrive in short spurts, and after years of underperformance the asset class delivered ~48% in 2025, validating staying invested in factor-tilted strategies.
“returns often come in short spurts. Missing out on them is easy to do if you don't stay invested”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 BITCOIN neutral Ben Felix · video
Bitcoin lacks the productive-asset characteristics needed to anchor a long-term expected return, and its -13% CAD return in 2025 during a period of elevated geopolitical uncertainty—when it was supposed to shine—raises questions about its diversification…
“Bitcoin's divergence from gold over a period with lots of geopolitical uncertainty was pretty interesting to see”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28 CIBC bullish Ben Felix · video
A broadly diversified, low-cost ETF with systematic tilts toward small-cap, value, and high-profitability stocks offers higher expected long-term returns than a plain total-market index fund, and the new CIBC-listed Avantis product makes this accessible to…
“an asset allocation fund that looks a lot like VEQT or XEQT, but it's got built-in tilts toward small-cap, value, and high-profitability stocks”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-05-25 DIVIDEND STOCKS / INCOME INVESTING bearish Ben Felix · video
Dividend policy is irrelevant to firm value per Modigliani-Miller, dividends are often tax-disadvantaged vs capital gains, and after controlling for size/value/profitability factors dividends carry zero alpha, making dividend-focused portfolios…
“dividends are not the cause of the outperformance. They are a tax inefficient sideshow”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2025-05-25 COVERED CALL / DERIVATIVE INCOME ETFS bearish Ben Felix · video
Selling covered calls mechanically transfers expected equity upside into option premium income, resulting in lower total returns, higher tax realizations, and negatively skewed return profiles, making the strategy a devil's bargain for income-seeking investors
“investors should expect lower total returns, higher tax realizations along the way, and a more negatively skewed return profile”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2025-05-25 LOW-COST BROAD MARKET INDEX FUNDS (TOTAL RETURN INVESTING) bullish Ben Felix · video
Focusing on total return via diversified low-cost index funds and systematic portfolio withdrawals produces better tax efficiency, broader diversification, and more reliable long-term outcomes than income-focused alternatives
“a better result could be achieved by focusing on total returns and systematically selling from a well-diversified portfolio”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2024-04-19 XGRO bullish Ben Felix · video
Higher capital gains inclusion rate makes low-turnover index funds even more advantageous over actively managed funds because they distribute fewer taxable capital gains annually, improving after-tax returns
“actively managed funds tend to trade more and distribute more capital gains each year due to having higher portfolio turnover”
Budget 2024: Capital Gains Tax is Increasing [Canada]
2023-12-05 HIGH-DISTRIBUTION-YIELD EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS bearish Ben Felix · video
Mutual funds that artificially juice dividend yields by buying stocks before dividend payments attract unsophisticated inflows but impose 0.57%-1.52% in added annual costs via turnover and taxes, eroding returns
“chasing the juicy yields is expensive for the funds investors due to turnover and increased taxes”
High Income Investments: A Warning
2023-12-05 BANKS bearish Ben Felix · video
Covered call ETFs advertise yields as high as 15-60% but writing calls caps upside, resulting in total returns that are negative or materially below the underlying holdings, making the high yield misleading and the expected return poor
“distribution yields and investment returns are not necessarily the same thing”
90d -5.9% · 180d -10.4% · 1y -49.2%
High Income Investments: A Warning
2023-12-05 HIGH-YIELD STRUCTURED PRODUCTS bearish Ben Felix · video
Structured products marketed with high headline rates target less sophisticated households but those rates represent best-case scenarios unrelated to expected total returns, resulting in high costs and low realized returns for investors
“investors looking for yield end up unwittingly investing in assets with high costs and low expected returns”
High Income Investments: A Warning
2023-08-29 GLOBAL STOCKS (DIVERSIFIED EQUITIES) bullish Ben Felix · video
Stocks have persistent risk premiums above cash across all interest rate environments, rising expected returns when prices fall, and historically only a 4-13% probability of losing purchasing power over 30 years, making them superior long-term holdings versus…
“international stocks 4% — not only has the probability of loss been greater but the magnitude has as well”
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
2023-08-29 CASH bearish Ben Felix · video
Cash has unpredictable long-term expected returns, no hedge against falling expected returns, lower returns than stocks and bonds in all rate environments, and historically a 37% probability of losing purchasing power over 30 years — making it a poor…
“cash is counterintuitively extremely risky for long-term investors”
90d -1.3% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -5.4%
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
2023-08-29 USTS bullish Ben Felix · video
Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the true risk-free asset for long-term investors because price drops are offset by rising expected returns, locking in real purchasing power for future spending unlike cash.
“the risk-free asset for a long-term investor is not cash, it's a long-term inflation index bond”
90d -1.0% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +6.6%
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
2023-05-11 GROWTH STOCKS (AS HEDGE PORTFOLIO) bullish Ben Felix · video
Investors with low financial wealth and high exposure to macroeconomic risk should tilt toward growth stocks because growth stocks act as hedge portfolios that tend to hold up better when labor income and consumption fall.
“investors with low financial wealth and high exposure to macroeconomic risk tilt their portfolios toward growth stocks which act as hedge portfolios”
Who Should NOT Invest in Total Market Index Funds?
2023-05-11 TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUNDS neutral Ben Felix · video
Total market index funds are optimal only for the average investor because under the ICAPM the market portfolio is multi-factor efficient for average preferences but sub-optimal for investors who differ meaningfully from average in their exposure to…
“the market portfolio is still optimal for the average investor but it is sub-optimal for everyone who is different from average”
Who Should NOT Invest in Total Market Index Funds?
2023-05-11 VALUE STOCKS / SMALL-CAP VALUE TILT bullish Ben Felix · video
Investors willing and able to bear macroeconomic risk that the average investor wants to avoid should tilt toward value stocks because these stocks carry priced risks (financial distress, earnings uncertainty, sensitivity to bad economic times) that command…
“tilting toward portfolios exposed to priced risks like value stocks can make a lot of sense”
Who Should NOT Invest in Total Market Index Funds?

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