Investors / stance tracking
What Ben Felix is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCIO, PWL Capital
61 dated public stances tracked since 2023-05-11, most recently 2026-10-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Ben Felix's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Ben Felix is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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61
tracked stances
56
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-21
last heard
Returns 90d -3.7% 42% correct · 12 calls · 180d -7.5% 33% correct · 9 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Private Credit | bearish | -7.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | DFSV | bullish | +11.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-19 | AVUV | bullish | +9.8% | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | USTS | bearish | +0.9% | +2.1% | — |
| 2026-04-30 | ENERGY | bearish | +1.0% | -15.9% | — |
| 2026-04-05 | XOVR | bearish | -25.2% | -27.6% | — |
| 2026-03-22 | SMB | bullish | +0.8% | -0.1% | — |
| 2026-01-11 | ENERGY | bearish | -24.1% | -20.5% | — |
| 2025-12-28 | GOLD | bearish | -4.0% | +6.3% | — |
| 2023-12-05 | BANKS | bearish | -5.9% | -10.4% | -49.2% |
| 2023-08-29 | USTS | bullish | -1.0% | +0.8% | +6.6% |
| 2023-08-29 | CASH | bearish | -1.3% | -2.6% | -5.4% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 3 | 1 bearish / 2 neutral | 2026-10-21 | |
| USTS | 3 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-05-31 | |
| ENERGY | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-04-30 | |
| AVANTIS INVESTORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS, CANADA) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-03-22 | |
| AVUV | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-05-19 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-12-05 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
After studying crypto and DeFi extensively, Ben concluded they did not represent the promised financial utility or revolution and exited his Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings.
“I don't want to deal with this anymore. So, I just sold it.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
GLOBALLY DIVERSIFIED LOW-COST EQUITY INDEX FUNDS
bullish
Ben Felix · video
A global index fund is the best default for DIY investors because it provides broad diversification, low costs, and minimal benchmark-tracking regret.
“As a default, it's probably still the best tool.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
MODERATE SIZE-VALUE-PROFITABILITY FACTOR TILT
owns
Ben Felix · video
Moderate factor tilts can diversify away from expensive mega-cap growth stocks and have delivered strong relative performance outside the US, although uncertainty argues against an extreme allocation.
“Even moderate factor tilting, which is what I do at PWL and what I do personally, I think that's a pretty good strategy.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
RISK-PARITY PORTFOLIOS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Risk parity relies excessively on backtested returns and unstable correlations while often adding high-fee assets and leverage, making its apparent historical risk-adjusted performance unreliable.
“To me, that's completely nuts.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
RETAIL PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Retail private equity offers little demonstrated illiquidity premium because net-of-fee performance is roughly comparable to public equities while investors surrender liquidity and managers capture the excess returns.
“Anytime you hear democratization, you should run.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
ONEDIGITAL PRIVATE EQUITY
owns
Ben Felix · video
Ben retained a large equity stake because he views OneDigital as a compelling diversified business, can influence its outcome through his work, gains private-equity exposure without fund fees, and received tax deferral.
“I didn't want to give up having equity in the business that I was putting a huge amount of my time and effort into.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-21
SINGLE-STOCK LEVERAGED, INVERSE, AND COVERED-CALL ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
These high-fee products generally underperform their underlying stocks because leverage and high volatility create severe compounding drag.
“The vast majority of these things underperform the underlying stock that they're investing in.”
Intervista a Ben Felix: AI, Bolle, Decumulo e... Pepperoni! | ft. @BenFelixCSI
2026-10-18
DIMENSIONAL GLOBAL EQUITY PORTFOLIO
owns
Ben Felix · video
Low-cost, broadly diversified global equity fund with factor tilts toward smaller, lower-priced, and more profitable companies based on Fama-French five-factor model, supported by a 2025 paper finding an all-equity portfolio with roughly one-third domestic…
“Most of our liquid long-term financial assets are invested in one fund”
Breaking Down My Investment Portfolio
2026-06-11
SPACEX IPO RETAIL ALLOCATION
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Retail IPO access historically produces ~60% declines vs offer price after one year due to adverse selection (issuers push aggressively-priced deals on less-informed retail) and attention-driven buying frenzies that fade post-launch, and SpaceX replicates the…
“If a retail investor can get an IPO allocation, they don't want it”
SpaceX IPO Situation is Crazy
2026-05-31
RETAIL OPTIONS TRADING
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Retail investors lost an aggregate $2.1 billion trading options in a recent sample period, primarily due to wide bid-ask spreads averaging 12.6% on short-dated speculative options, making zero-commission marketing misleading about true costs
“aggregate portfolio of retail investors lost $2.1 billion trading options from November 2019 to June 2021”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Private equity's outperformance disappears once properly adjusted for higher market beta (roughly 2x for buyouts) and illiquidity, leaving risk-adjusted returns statistically indistinguishable from zero versus public equities
“private equity's performance is fully explained by taking on more public equity market risk than a public equity index”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31
MARGIN INVESTING / LEVERAGED RETAIL ACCOUNTS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Empirical data shows margin account holders trade more actively, more speculatively, and less profitably than cash account holders, making margin a wealth-destructive tool for most retail investors despite broker marketing emphasizing its 'power'
“investors with margin accounts trade more actively, more speculatively, and importantly less profitably”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
Publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs deliver comparable total returns to private credit funds while offering liquidity, transparency, and lower costs
“realized total return since inception...is in line with a publicly-traded high-yield bond ETF”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31
Private Credit
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Private credit headline yields overstate total returns because loan losses and volatility drag realized returns down to levels equivalent to publicly-traded high-yield bond ETFs, with added illiquidity and higher fees
“total returns in credit investments tend to trail their headline yield”
90d -7.9%
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31
LOW-COST INDEX FUNDS (DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS, AVANTIS ETFS)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Low-cost index funds charge minimal fees, carry no kickback incentives distorting advisor recommendations, and outperform the heavily marketed alternatives discussed, making them the rational default for most investors
“The funds that I find most sensible don't tend to advertise at all, which probably helps to explain their low fees”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-31
THEMATIC ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Thematic ETFs underperform broad market benchmarks by ~6% on average in the 5 years post-launch because exciting growth themes are already priced in at launch, and 100% of Canadian-listed thematic funds have either closed or underperformed at the 10-year…
“100% of Canadian listed thematic funds either closing or underperforming at the 10-year horizon”
The Biggest Problem in Investing Right Now
2026-05-19
GLOBAL EQUITIES (100% EQUITY PORTFOLIO)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
For long-horizon early retirees with flexible spending, 100% equities avoids the real-return risk of nominal bonds and historically supports safe withdrawal rates better than stock/bond blends, especially when spending can be adjusted dynamically
“if you can spend conservatively and be flexible in your spending, I don't think you have to diversify outside of equities”
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-05-19
AVUV
bullish
Ben Felix · video
AVUV is constrained to small caps and tilts more toward small cap growth within that universe, making it a viable small-cap value factor exposure with slightly smaller average market cap than DFSV
“AVUV is actually a little bit smaller on average than DFSV”
90d +9.8%
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-05-19
DFSV
bullish
Ben Felix · video
DFSV is tightly constrained within the small cap value universe, offering purer factor exposure than AVUV for investors seeking disciplined small-cap value tilts
“DFSV is very constrained within the small cap value universe”
90d +11.9%
Ben Felix Critiques FIRE… And Then Makes the Case for 100% Equities for FIRE
2026-04-30
INTERNATIONALLY DIVERSIFIED EQUITY PORTFOLIO (1/3 DOMESTIC, 2/3 INTERNATIONAL STOCKS)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
A paper simulating a million lifetimes across 39 countries back to 1890 found 100% equities with roughly 1/3 domestic and 2/3 international stocks maximized retirement consumption utility and minimized probability of ruin, partly because international stocks…
“a 100% equity portfolio with a big chunk in international stocks is optimal”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30
CANADIAN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE (TORONTO CONDOS)
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Canadian real estate, especially Toronto condos, is in one of the largest inflation-adjusted price drawdowns since 1975 after years of unsustainable price gains driven by record immigration and low interest rates that have now reversed, making near-term price…
“Canada is right now in one of the biggest real estate price drawdowns, when you adjust for inflation, going back to 1975”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-30
COVERED CALL ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Covered call products exploit investors' income bias by delivering option premium income while silently capping upside participation, resulting in an implied cost that most investors do not realize they are paying
“you're giving up so much upside that I don't think most investors realize”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
Said again: 2026-05-31 (Ben Felix)
Thematic ETFs are typically launched after asset prices in a hot sector have already risen sharply, so investors buy at peak valuations and subsequently earn poor returns as prices revert
“the asset prices come down, then the returns on thematic funds tend to be very poor”
90d +1.0% · 180d -15.9%
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
Bitcoin solved a genuine technical problem but has evolved into a speculative and ideological asset without investment merit sufficient to warrant allocation, so PWL does not include it in client portfolios
“we've decided not to touch it... I personally don't touch it”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
Bonds are riskier than conventionally believed for long-term investors because high inflation periods decimate them in real terms, making the standard glide-path toward bonds as investors age suboptimal
“bonds, which are typically considered safe, are actually a little bit riskier than we may have thought”
90d +0.9% · 180d +2.1%
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
Said again: 2026-05-19 (Ben Felix)
2026-04-30
GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX FUNDS (BROAD MARKET)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Academic research and historical data show low-cost index funds capturing market returns will outperform most active strategies over the long term, and the hard part is simply staying invested rather than finding the right strategy
“investing's been solved. We're going to use index funds. That's it.”
Stock Expert: Becoming Rich Is Simple, But You Won’t Do It!
2026-04-05
LOW-FLOAT MEGA IPOS (SPACEX, OPENAI)
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Low-float IPOs (below 5% float) for large-revenue companies have underperformed the market by roughly 50% from offer price and over 60% from first-day close within three years, and SpaceX's implied 100x price-to-sales ratio amplifies this risk
“10 of the 11 IPOs underperformed the market within three years with average underperformance of roughly 50%”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05
IPOS / NEW PUBLIC LISTINGS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
IPOs historically underperform the market by ~19 percentage points over three years on a buy-and-hold basis because companies go public when insiders believe shares are fully or overvalued, and the stocks behave like small, low-profitability, high-investment…
“investing in IPOs is one of the worst investment strategies that exists”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05
IPO ETF (RENAISSANCE IPO ETF)
bearish
Ben Felix · video
The Renaissance IPO ETF has underperformed VTI by more than 6 percentage points annualized since inception, confirming the empirical new-issues puzzle in live fund data
“It has underperformed VTI by more than six percentage points annualized since inception”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-04-05
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS FUNDS (IPO-AVOIDANCE STRATEGY)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Funds that avoid IPOs for ~1 year post-listing and tilt away from small-growth/low-profitability stocks sidestep the index rebalancing performance drag of 47–70 basis points per year and adverse IPO selection costs borne by standard index funds
“this issue right here is one of the reasons that I don't use them personally or for the clients of PWL Capital”
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
Despite SpaceX reportedly rising in value since XOVR invested in December 2024, the fund has lost money in absolute and relative terms due to illiquidity of SPV structures and complexity costs, illustrating that coveted private-market access vehicles destroy…
“the more you covet something, the more you should probably question your desire to own it”
90d -25.2% · 180d -27.6%
SpaceX and OpenAI: The Mega IPO Grift
2026-03-22
RMW
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Companies with robust profitability deliver higher expected returns than those with weak profitability, as captured by the RMW factor in the Fama-French five-factor model which improves explanatory power to ~95% of return differences
“the five-factor model did help to solve some problems that the three-factor model couldn't”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
DFA funds deliver systematic, low-cost exposure to academically validated return factors (market, size, value, profitability, investment) and have a decades-long track record of doing so effectively
“their track record using these strategies has been very good over decades”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22
CMA
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Companies that grow assets slowly (conservative investment) tend to outperform aggressive asset growers, representing a priced systematic factor in the Fama-French five-factor model
“companies that grow their assets slowly, conservative, tend to outperform those that pour cash into rapid asset growth”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22
SMB
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Small stocks have systematically higher expected returns than large stocks due to exposure to a priced risk factor (SMB) that cannot be explained by market beta alone, as documented in Fama-French research
“evidence suggests that long-term expected returns are driven by exposure to specific factors”
90d +0.8% · 180d -0.1%
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22
AVANTIS INVESTORS ETFS (FACTOR-TILTED FUNDS, CANADA)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Avantis offers similar factor-based investment strategies to DFA and has recently launched ETFs in Canada via CIBC, providing Canadian investors with low-cost access to academically grounded factor premiums
“Avantis Investors, a dimensional competitor, launched similar products, and they have just launched ETFs in Canada”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-03-22
HML
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Value stocks have systematically higher expected returns than growth stocks due to exposure to a priced risk factor (HML) that represents compensation for bearing a form of systematic risk
“investors may achieve higher expected returns by tilting toward certain types of stocks”
This Paper Could Change How You Invest
2026-01-11
BUFFER ETFS / DEFINED OUTCOME ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Buffer ETFs charge high fees (e.g., 0.73% vs 0.09% for underlying), use costly options that deliver inconsistent downside protection outside target periods, and are outperformed on average even in drawdowns by simple low-cost equity/cash combinations
“simple, low-cost alternatives like mixing equities with cash generally outperform buffer funds on average”
The Rise of ETF Slop
Thematic ETFs systematically launch after themes have already delivered high returns, leading to average underperformance of ~6% per year post-launch as inflated expectations revert, while charging higher fees
“just over 10% of thematic funds globally outperform at the 10-year horizon”
90d -24.1% · 180d -20.5%
The Rise of ETF Slop
2026-01-11
LEVERAGED SINGLE STOCK ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Leveraged single stock ETFs underperform a simple frictionless leverage benchmark by over 9% per year due to daily rebalancing drag and financing costs embedded in swap contracts, with 56% delivering negative absolute returns at a one-year horizon
“long-levered single stock ETFs underperform a simple frictionless leverage benchmark by an average of 0.79% per month”
The Rise of ETF Slop
2026-01-11
COVERED CALL ETFS (YIELD/INCOME ETFS)
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Covered call ETFs mechanically cap upside returns while offering minimal downside protection, causing total returns to trail underlying equities, leaving even income-focused investors worse off than a simple index fund plus occasional sales strategy
“covered call funds leave investors worse off rather than better”
The Rise of ETF Slop
2025-12-28
TSX
bullish
Ben Felix · video
International diversification remains essential because single-country markets including the US can underperform for extended periods, and Canada's 29.46% return in 2025 demonstrates that negative economic headlines are often already priced in, making…
“international diversification is still not dead”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
Elevated US valuations historically correlate with lower future returns, and extreme index concentration (top-7 = 32% of market) combined with high CAPE-style valuations warrants using more modest return assumptions, though neither metric is a reliable…
“high stock valuations should lead to more moderate expected returns for that stock market”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28
CANADIAN REAL ESTATE (TORONTO HOUSING MARKET)
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Toronto composite home prices have fallen ~26% from the 2022 peak driven by tighter immigration policy and higher interest rates, and renter wealth now exceeds owner wealth on average across 12 Canadian cities, undermining the conventional wisdom that owning…
“renting is not a bad financial decision as long as the renter saves diligently”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
Gold's long-run expected real return is only ~1% above inflation based on academic research spanning large datasets, and historically high gold prices are typically followed by lower future returns, making buying after a 57% year a poor risk-adjusted decision.
“the base rate expected long-term return for gold is low”
90d -4.0% · 180d +6.3%
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28
XCS
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Canadian small-cap and value stocks have historically-grounded return premiums that tend to arrive in short spurts, and after years of underperformance the asset class delivered ~48% in 2025, validating staying invested in factor-tilted strategies.
“returns often come in short spurts. Missing out on them is easy to do if you don't stay invested”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
Bitcoin lacks the productive-asset characteristics needed to anchor a long-term expected return, and its -13% CAD return in 2025 during a period of elevated geopolitical uncertainty—when it was supposed to shine—raises questions about its diversification…
“Bitcoin's divergence from gold over a period with lots of geopolitical uncertainty was pretty interesting to see”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-12-28
CIBC
bullish
Ben Felix · video
A broadly diversified, low-cost ETF with systematic tilts toward small-cap, value, and high-profitability stocks offers higher expected long-term returns than a plain total-market index fund, and the new CIBC-listed Avantis product makes this accessible to…
“an asset allocation fund that looks a lot like VEQT or XEQT, but it's got built-in tilts toward small-cap, value, and high-profitability stocks”
2025 Was Nut(s): A Canadian CIO's Review
2025-05-25
DIVIDEND STOCKS / INCOME INVESTING
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Dividend policy is irrelevant to firm value per Modigliani-Miller, dividends are often tax-disadvantaged vs capital gains, and after controlling for size/value/profitability factors dividends carry zero alpha, making dividend-focused portfolios…
“dividends are not the cause of the outperformance. They are a tax inefficient sideshow”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2025-05-25
COVERED CALL / DERIVATIVE INCOME ETFS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Selling covered calls mechanically transfers expected equity upside into option premium income, resulting in lower total returns, higher tax realizations, and negatively skewed return profiles, making the strategy a devil's bargain for income-seeking investors
“investors should expect lower total returns, higher tax realizations along the way, and a more negatively skewed return profile”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2025-05-25
LOW-COST BROAD MARKET INDEX FUNDS (TOTAL RETURN INVESTING)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Focusing on total return via diversified low-cost index funds and systematic portfolio withdrawals produces better tax efficiency, broader diversification, and more reliable long-term outcomes than income-focused alternatives
“a better result could be achieved by focusing on total returns and systematically selling from a well-diversified portfolio”
The Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance
2024-04-19
XGRO
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Higher capital gains inclusion rate makes low-turnover index funds even more advantageous over actively managed funds because they distribute fewer taxable capital gains annually, improving after-tax returns
“actively managed funds tend to trade more and distribute more capital gains each year due to having higher portfolio turnover”
Budget 2024: Capital Gains Tax is Increasing [Canada]
2023-12-05
HIGH-DISTRIBUTION-YIELD EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Mutual funds that artificially juice dividend yields by buying stocks before dividend payments attract unsophisticated inflows but impose 0.57%-1.52% in added annual costs via turnover and taxes, eroding returns
“chasing the juicy yields is expensive for the funds investors due to turnover and increased taxes”
High Income Investments: A Warning
Covered call ETFs advertise yields as high as 15-60% but writing calls caps upside, resulting in total returns that are negative or materially below the underlying holdings, making the high yield misleading and the expected return poor
“distribution yields and investment returns are not necessarily the same thing”
90d -5.9% · 180d -10.4% · 1y -49.2%
High Income Investments: A Warning
2023-12-05
HIGH-YIELD STRUCTURED PRODUCTS
bearish
Ben Felix · video
Structured products marketed with high headline rates target less sophisticated households but those rates represent best-case scenarios unrelated to expected total returns, resulting in high costs and low realized returns for investors
“investors looking for yield end up unwittingly investing in assets with high costs and low expected returns”
High Income Investments: A Warning
2023-08-29
GLOBAL STOCKS (DIVERSIFIED EQUITIES)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Stocks have persistent risk premiums above cash across all interest rate environments, rising expected returns when prices fall, and historically only a 4-13% probability of losing purchasing power over 30 years, making them superior long-term holdings versus…
“international stocks 4% — not only has the probability of loss been greater but the magnitude has as well”
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
Cash has unpredictable long-term expected returns, no hedge against falling expected returns, lower returns than stocks and bonds in all rate environments, and historically a 37% probability of losing purchasing power over 30 years — making it a poor…
“cash is counterintuitively extremely risky for long-term investors”
90d -1.3% · 180d -2.6% · 1y -5.4%
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the true risk-free asset for long-term investors because price drops are offset by rising expected returns, locking in real purchasing power for future spending unlike cash.
“the risk-free asset for a long-term investor is not cash, it's a long-term inflation index bond”
90d -1.0% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +6.6%
Cash is a terrible long-term investment, even at 5% interest
2023-05-11
GROWTH STOCKS (AS HEDGE PORTFOLIO)
bullish
Ben Felix · video
Investors with low financial wealth and high exposure to macroeconomic risk should tilt toward growth stocks because growth stocks act as hedge portfolios that tend to hold up better when labor income and consumption fall.
“investors with low financial wealth and high exposure to macroeconomic risk tilt their portfolios toward growth stocks which act as hedge portfolios”
Who Should NOT Invest in Total Market Index Funds?
2023-05-11
TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUNDS
neutral
Ben Felix · video
Total market index funds are optimal only for the average investor because under the ICAPM the market portfolio is multi-factor efficient for average preferences but sub-optimal for investors who differ meaningfully from average in their exposure to…
“the market portfolio is still optimal for the average investor but it is sub-optimal for everyone who is different from average”
Who Should NOT Invest in Total Market Index Funds?
Showing the 60 most recent of 61 tracked stances.
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