Investors / stance tracking
What Chamath Palihapitiya is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Social Capital
61 dated public stances tracked since 2022-09-11, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Chamath Palihapitiya's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Chamath Palihapitiya is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
61
tracked stances
45
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Returns 90d -0.8% 51% correct · 35 calls · 180d -0.4% 48% correct · 29 calls · 1y +2.9% 39% correct · 28 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | GOOGL | bullish | +1.5% | — | — |
| 2026-07-18 | PYPL | bullish | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | AMZN | bullish | +7.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-22 | SPCX | owns | -16.7% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | CRM | bullish | +16.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | AAPL | bullish | +1.8% | — | — |
| 2026-04-17 | BE | bullish | -0.5% | +15.1% | — |
| 2025-10-24 | TSLA | bullish | +3.6% | -10.7% | -9.7% |
| 2025-10-06 | Private Credit | bearish | -5.4% | +4.4% | -2.4% |
| 2025-09-07 | GOOGL | bullish | +34.1% | +27.6% | +45.0% |
| 2025-07-04 | USD | bearish | -1.7% | -3.2% | -8.2% |
| 2025-06-25 | SNOW | bearish | -0.9% | -2.4% | -2.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | CRM | bearish | +8.5% | +0.8% | +43.4% |
| 2025-06-21 | AAPL | bearish | -22.0% | -35.4% | -48.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | TSLA | bullish | +13.4% | +38.8% | +26.4% |
| 2025-05-24 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -2.7% | -6.4% | -3.8% |
| 2025-05-24 | GOLD | bullish | +2.0% | +23.1% | +36.0% |
| 2025-05-24 | BITCOIN | bullish | +8.4% | -19.8% | -28.6% |
| 2025-05-03 | UBER | bullish | +1.7% | +12.9% | -13.5% |
| 2025-04-26 | GOOGL | bullish | +20.4% | +57.9% | +118.9% |
| 2025-04-04 | High Yield | short | -6.2% | -8.6% | -10.1% |
| 2025-03-03 | SPX | bearish | -1.8% | -10.3% | -17.9% |
| 2025-03-01 | Big Tech | bearish | -4.6% | -16.4% | -23.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | GLP | bullish | -16.2% | -11.1% | -13.8% |
| 2025-01-04 | INDUSTRIALS | bearish | +10.7% | -13.5% | -22.4% |
| 2024-12-20 | long GOOGL / long AMZN / long MSFT / long META | basket | -9.8% | +3.7% | +22.3% |
| 2024-11-16 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +0.1% | +2.6% | -3.1% |
| 2024-11-16 | BITCOIN | bullish | +7.7% | +14.6% | +4.0% |
| 2024-10-25 | long BITCOIN / short GOLD | pair | +27.9% | +10.4% | +11.4% |
| 2024-10-25 | SBUX | bearish | -1.3% | +13.9% | +8.1% |
| 2024-10-18 | EXPE | bearish | -18.2% | +4.2% | -37.6% |
| 2022-09-11 | TSLA | bullish | -44.9% | -43.0% | -10.1% |
| 2022-09-11 | GOOGL | bullish | -15.8% | -18.2% | +23.5% |
| 2022-09-11 | BOX | bullish | +7.9% | -7.9% | -8.8% |
| 2022-09-11 | AMZN | bullish | -33.6% | -33.5% | +4.9% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-07-24 | |
| TSLA | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-10-24 | |
| AAPL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-05-15 | |
| AMZN | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-06-19 | |
| BITCOIN | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-05-24 | |
| CRM | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-05-15 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-30
ANT
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Anthropic is an exceptional capital-efficient business but is fairly priced at ~$1.5T; no screaming deal at the expected range, though $300B+ in post-IPO dry powder secures all forward CapEx commitments and the enterprise revenue ramp is still early-innings
“at the 14, 15, 16, it's kind of priced fairly. So there's no deal, but they're giving you an entry price into the future.”
Anthropic S-1 Shocker, Greatest Business Ever? Google’s $500B Wipeout, Midterm Predictions
France's public spending as a percent of GDP exceeds every major historical communist nation, and with political paralysis preventing voluntary austerity, bond vigilantes must drive yields to ~8% to force a fiscal reset
“I think you need to take France to like 8% and just break them”
AI Cyber Panic, Ken Griffin’s Bubble Warning, The Fall of France?
Power scarcity is the binding constraint on all AI compute expansion — the US faces a 1.4 terawatt-hour electricity deficit by 2050 even with all planned builds on time, hyperscalers are already turning away customers, making owned land + power + shell the…
“you got to get long energy... you cannot go through the hyperscalers is my prognostication”
CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer
Short-term rates surged ~60bps in 30 days (highest since 2002), and based on actual FDIC balance sheets ~95 banks will report >20% equity impairment when October 30 quarterly reports drop, creating a negative shock to bank equities
“about 95 banks are going to see an impairment of more than 20% of their equity — that's going to be a massive kind of shock”
Trump’s Super Intelligence Summit, AI Safety Accord, GDP Beats, Midterm Predictions
2026-07-31
ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND STORAGE
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
The US faces a structural 1.7 terawatt-hour electricity deficit by 2050 (equivalent to 6x California's total energy consumption), amplified by AI compute demand and robot electrification, creating durable long-term pricing power for electrons in any form
“go long electrons. Get long electrons any which way you can. Bank them, store them, and resell them.”
Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Google's 32% average ROIC over 20 years and its structural position to capture AI value at the silicon and cloud layer means it will be massively rewarded as model fragmentation drives infrastructure demand regardless of which models win
“500 different models proliferate and they support all of them because they will make so much money at the silicon layer”
90d +1.5%
The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
The $60/share Stripe-Advent-Block bid is not the clearing price — strategic value of 439M consumer accounts, stablecoin infrastructure, and the possibility of a competing Elon Musk bid justifies 10-15% upside from current offer
“there is a certain individual that must look very closely at putting in a competitive bid”
90d +0.0%
Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Anthropic's regulatory fumbles hand hyperscalers a clear lane to position themselves as government-trusted AI gatekeepers, letting them charge tolls and underwrite their massive AI capex via an effective oligopoly
“They're going to say they're the adult supervision. That's not regulatory capture — it's a market opportunity.”
90d +7.9%
World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
2026-06-19
SPACEX IPO
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
SpaceX's current elevated price-to-sales ratio represents a near-term peak but the company will grow into its valuation as revenue compounds, making the stock a long-term compounder
“the highest price to sales was essentially these last few days and now it's just going to grow into its valuation”
World's First Trillionaire, Anthropic Fable Banned, The New Oligarchs, Iran Peace Deal
2026-06-13
DATA CENTER / COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Open-source AI requires sovereign compute capacity to prevent a closed-model monopoly; without it, the regulatory capture Anthropic is pursuing will lock the industry into one or two gatekeepers, making large-scale independent compute infrastructure…
“I'm coming to the conclusion that I think we may just be dragged into having to build two gigawatts”
Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Starlink is a hundreds-of-millions-subscriber internet infrastructure business growing GDP+10-15%, the Colossus AI compute business is already generating $15B/year from Anthropic alone and will scale rapidly as the only operator capable of delivering…
“I'm buying probably the most important internet infrastructure project since the internet itself”
90d -16.7%
SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?
High-end enterprise SaaS with sticky CXO relationships and negative churn is oversold; OpenAI's deployment deal proves replacing incumbents at the high end is harder than expected, setting up a re-rating higher
“I think we're a little oversold and I now think this consolidation and rerating can happen in the opposite direction”
90d +16.4%
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
Apple's extraordinary hardware footprint (M-series chips, massive RAM) gives it a clear path to running local AI models that preserve privacy, making it the dominant personal AI platform without relying on untrustworthy third-party LLMs
“I think Apple's my choice for the next year”
90d +1.8%
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
2026-05-15
China Equities
neutral
All-In Podcast · video
The US should sell Nvidia chips to China because it is better to have Jensen Huang win the chip market than cede ground to Huawei, and restricting exports only accelerates a viable Chinese alternative
“I'd rather he win than Huawei win. Sell the chips. Proliferate. Let Jensen win.”
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
Massive compute constraint at AI data centers makes Bloom Energy's on-site nat gas power solutions essential, as they allow operators to bypass years-long grid interconnection waits while clearing clean-air permits quickly
“if you look at companies like Bloom Energy, it has gone absolutely straight up vertical nuclear”
90d -0.5% · 180d +15.1%
AI5 chip (40x improvement over AI4, eliminates discrete GPU and ISP) combined with energy business at $3.5B/quarter and 30% operating margins provides the stack Tesla needs to win on autonomous vehicles and Optimus robotics
“I think that he is humming on all cylinders on the critical layers of the stack”
90d +3.6% · 180d -10.7% · 1y -9.7%
NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
HBM memory is the critical constrained bottleneck in AI GPU architectures — AMD's next-gen chips require HBM, forcing competition for allocation from SK Hynix and Samsung, giving these suppliers leverage to extract equity participation from AI companies…
“those that control those resources are going to dictate the pace and the scale of this AI expansion”
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
2025-10-10
TAO
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Open-source decentralized AI compute networks will emerge as an alternative supply chain to centralized Nvidia-dominated infrastructure, capturing value from the Jevons paradox driving ever-expanding AI token demand.
“I mentioned Bit Tensor. I think it's an open source project that's worth looking into.”
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
2025-10-06
PRIVATE EQUITY MANAGERS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Too much capital flooded into PE from laggards who overpay for assets, distributions have been near zero for 4-5 years, and returns are converging to zero as happened previously in VC and hedge funds
“private equity in general is totally hosed”
The Next Bubble Is Already Here - Chamath Palihapitiya
2025-10-06
Private Credit
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Excess capital exiting PE is flooding into private credit, replicating the same bubble dynamic of too much money chasing an asset class that will ultimately destroy returns
“private credit, which is the next big bubble that's building”
90d -5.4% · 180d +4.4% · 1y -2.4%
The Next Bubble Is Already Here - Chamath Palihapitiya
2025-09-08
RESIDENTIAL SOLAR AND BATTERY STORAGE
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Grid utilities are structurally broken because transmission and distribution costs dwarf generation costs, making distributed residential solar-plus-storage the economically rational alternative; removal of bad subsidies will eliminate shady competitors and…
“the largest utility in the United States will be a distributed utility of homeowners”
The Hidden Truth About the US Energy Grid: Subsidies, Demand & Rising Prices - Chris Wright
The antitrust ruling rejecting breakup remedies removes the largest regulatory overhang on Google, freeing management to compete aggressively in AI without internal and external distraction from litigation risk
“the great news for Google is that this takes an enormous risk off the table”
90d +34.1% · 180d +27.6% · 1y +45.0%
Inside the White House Tech Dinner, Weak Jobs Report, Tariffs Court Challenge, Google Wins Antitrust
2025-07-04
long FIGMA / short ADBE
pair
All-In Podcast · video
Figma's land-and-expand durability and design-tool moat make it a better AI-era survivor than Adobe, which will re-rate faster and harder if foundational models absorb creative workflows
“I would probably long it and I would short an equivalent quantum of Adobe and I would just book the spread”
Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
2025-07-04
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
AI, robotics, and data center buildout create insatiable electricity demand that far outstrips supply, making any form of energy production capacity a multi-decade winning asset in the US
“any single way you can get your hands on electricity production is a winning trade over the next 20 years in the United States”
Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
US structural deficit spending and the debt death spiral make long-run dollar devaluation a near-certainty, with this trend having played out for 50+ years and no policy path to reversal in sight
“there will always be a reason to be somewhat short the dollar”
90d -1.7% · 180d -3.2% · 1y -8.2%
Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
2025-06-28
NEW YORK CITY REAL ESTATE
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Mamdani's socialist agenda will trigger flight of the top-10% tax base to Austin and Miami, replicating the San Francisco doom spiral and crashing NYC real estate values
“I would be short New York real estate. I think it's going to crash and burn”
12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Snowflake's consumption-based pricing model ultimately destroys itself because enterprise customers cannot tolerate variable costs on terabytes of daily data and will migrate to cheaper alternatives like Postgres or Supabase.
“in the long term it destroys your business”
90d -0.9% · 180d -2.4% · 1y -2.5%
Is the SaaS Bubble Finally Bursting? - Chamath Palihapitiya
AI-powered custom software rebuilding from scratch is dramatically cheaper and faster than buying vertical SaaS, so the entire SaaS pricing model and customer base faces structural disintegration as companies rip out multi-million-dollar licenses.
“the jig is totally up for software”
90d +8.5% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +43.4%
Is the SaaS Bubble Finally Bursting? - Chamath Palihapitiya
2025-06-23
short S / long Crypto Other
hedge
All-In Podcast · video
The S&P 493 earns 12% average margins with single-digit growth and faces asymmetric disruption risk from AI, so the rational position is to reduce legacy exposure and overweight companies with direct leverage to AI and crypto themes whose IPOs are 'absolutely…
“Be less long the past and frankly make some bets about the future”
"I Don't Think Apple Has A Chance" - The Brutal Truth About Apple - Chamath Palihapitiya
2025-06-21
long AWS / long MSFT / long GCP
basket
All-In Podcast · video
Cloud infrastructure is the one bet that doesn't require picking an individual AI winner — AWS, Azure, and GCP all benefit from the AI buildout, multiples are reasonable, and any single platform outperforming more than compensates for the others
“if we could synthetically own AWS, Azure, and GCP over the next five years, you wouldn't need to own anything else”
IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Apple is irreversibly transitioning to a cash cow — it cannot attract top AI talent as Meta/Google/OpenAI outcompete for it, controls neither silicon nor foundation models, and Siri has had 17 years to matter and doesn't; the HP/Intel/GE creative-destruction…
“I don't think they have any chance of anything”
90d -22.0% · 180d -35.4% · 1y -48.0%
IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Said again: 2025-06-23 (All-In Podcast)
After auditing Tesla's Dojo and Optimus teams in person, the scale of execution and quality of talent Musk attracts signal the company is underappreciated
“I would not be sleeping on this company is what I would say”
90d +13.4% · 180d +38.8% · 1y +26.4%
Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Said again: 2025-06-21 (All-In Podcast), 2025-06-24 (All-In Podcast)
2025-06-13
US RISK ASSETS
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
~$300B in annual incremental tariff revenue plus a potential 100bps Fed rate cut would free ~$300B in interest savings, creating a $600B positive fiscal swing that will draw global capital exclusively into US markets at the expense of Japan and Europe
“Every single risk dollar is going to run to America. Forget Japan. Forget Europe.”
Tucker Carlson: ICE Raids, LA Riots, Strong Economic Data, Politicized Fed, War with Iran?
Same fiscal deterioration thesis as gold: bond market rebellion against US deficit spending pushes investors into Bitcoin alongside gold as dollar-alternative assets, with recent price spike as early confirmation
“You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin.”
90d +8.4% · 180d -19.8% · 1y -28.6%
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
2025-05-24
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
The big beautiful bill adds $3–5T to the deficit while real 30-year rates are already at 5.1% versus the CBO's 3.6% assumption, creating a nonlinear recursive spiral where higher interest payments force more debt issuance, which the bond market will price in…
“the bond markets will act decisively and they are going to go in one direction and it's away from us”
90d -2.7% · 180d -6.4% · 1y -3.8%
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Said again: 2025-05-25 (All-In Podcast)
Accelerating US debt spiral and potential Fed monetization (buying bonds to cap yields) will debase the dollar, driving capital rotation out of US Treasuries into gold as an alternative store of value — already confirmed by recent price spike
“You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin. They started to spike in the last few days.”
90d +2.0% · 180d +23.1% · 1y +36.0%
Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Uber generates revenue from domestic ride-sharing and delivery services with no exposure to goods imports, making it structurally immune to tariff headwinds that are pressuring the broader market
“All that matters to me is that Uber is the anti-tariff stock. It just does great. It's not impacted by tariffs.”
90d +1.7% · 180d +12.9% · 1y -13.5%
Trump's First 100 Days, Tariffs Impact Trade, AI Agents, Amazon Backs Down
Alphabet trades at ~18x free cash flow with a ~4-5% effective yield from dividends plus buybacks, revenue is resilient across search, YouTube, cloud, and 270M paid subscriptions, and Waymo represents ~$100B of optionality the market is pricing at zero
“I think there's hundred billion dollars of hidden value called Whimo in this business”
90d +20.4% · 180d +57.9% · 1y +118.9%
Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
Said again: 2025-05-09 (All-In Podcast), 2025-06-21 (All-In Podcast), 2025-06-24 (All-In Podcast)
2025-04-07
CDS
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Tariffs will compress corporate revenues, triggering debt covenant violations and a wave of defaults; CDS protection offers extreme asymmetric payoff — small premium cost with 10-1000x upside — as spread blowout is the early warning signal the market is…
“I would be long CDS... having a little insurance may not be a bad thing”
Major Market Risk: Chamath Outlines Corporate Default Dangers in the Wake of Trump's Tariffs
2025-04-04
High Yield
short
All-In Podcast · video
Tariff-driven revenue compression threatens leveraged corporate borrowers whose debt covenants are tied to revenue and EBITDA, creating a potential wave of defaults analogous to the GFC credit canary
“I am buying insurance using credit default swaps...this was my pick for the best performing asset of 2025”
90d -6.2% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -10.1%
DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Said again: 2025-05-25 (All-In Podcast)
2025-03-29
ENTERPRISE SAAS INCUMBENTS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
AI agents will allow 3-person teams to replicate the output of 300-person enterprises, collapsing the cost structure that underpins the $3.5–4T SaaS industry and making incumbents unable to compete on price
“that is incredibly disruptive because the existing incumbents cannot compete with that cost scale”
The AI Cold War, Signalgate, CoreWeave IPO, Tariff Endgames, El Salvador Deportations
Trump administration's permissive antitrust stance and the goodwill-for-approval dynamic (companies doing government work to earn M&A blessing) will unlock a multi-year wave of tech sector consolidation that was suppressed under Biden
“I think companies will be much more aggressive on M&A... you're going to have a very open-minded Administration”
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Tariffs plus slowing immigration plus DOGE austerity will slow US GDP growth from ~2.5% to ~1.5% in H2, making a market that is already marginally expensive vulnerable to a significant correction
“I'm actually pretty negative for the first time in a while and it may only last a year or so”
90d -1.8% · 180d -10.3% · 1y -17.9%
"Bad News for the Stock Market": Chamath Explains The Great Economic Reset
2025-03-01
short SPX / short US REAL ESTATE
basket
All-In Podcast · video
A durable populist political coalition whose constituents are largely asset-light requires walking down both equities and real estate to remain electorally viable — analogous to UK austerity post-2010 which drove a prolonged sideways-to-down asset market
“I think it requires a walking down of these asset markets in a meaningful way that's stocks and that's real estate”
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
2025-03-01
Big Tech
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Mag 7 is priced to perfection while macro headwinds — tariffs, slowing immigration, and DOGE austerity — could cut GDP growth from 2.5% to ~1.5%, making a significant correction likely
“the stock market on the margin is a little expensive and not particularly that attractive”
90d -4.6% · 180d -16.4% · 1y -23.0%
Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
2025-02-07
GLP
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
VA macro study across 1.2M+ patients shows GLP-1 drugs reduce cardiac arrest by 30% and improve outcomes across dozens of indications beyond weight loss, and the pill-format simplicity removes cognitive load barriers that limit adoption of alternative health…
“pop a pill and it solves all those problems it doesn't require a cognitive load”
90d -16.2% · 180d -11.1% · 1y -13.8%
DOGE vs USAID, Crypto Framework, Google's $75B AI Spend, US Sovereign Wealth Fund, GLP-1s
2025-01-04
MAGNIFICENT 7 / MEGA-CAP TECH CONCENTRATION
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Top 7–10 companies approaching 40% of major index weighting — a concentration level that has historically foreshadowed large drawdowns, independent of underlying business quality
“the absolute dollar draw down of the mag s will be in the trillions of dollars”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2025-01-04
DOLLAR-DENOMINATED STABLECOINS
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Stablecoins decoupled from crypto volatility in 2024 and processed $8.5T in H1 — more than double Visa — poised to attack the Visa/Mastercard duopoly with 4–5x usage growth under a pro-crypto Trump administration
“I think stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2025-01-04
TRADITIONAL AUTO OEMS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Tesla's FSD software advantage and Chinese EV cost structure will force public markets to price legacy OEMs as uninvestable melting icebergs, triggering a wave of desperate consolidation mergers
“these Auto oems are uninvestable”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
AI-native companies rebuilding enterprise workflows at an order-of-magnitude lower cost will undercut the golf-trip-and-steak-dinner go-to-market of legacy ERP and SaaS vendors, as CFOs force CIOs to rationalize spend
“the software industrial complex...I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025”
90d +10.7% · 180d -13.5% · 1y -22.4%
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2024-12-20
long GOOGL / long AMZN / long MSFT / long META
basket
All-In Podcast · video
In an AI capital war, the mega-cap tech firms (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) can attract near-zero-cost capital at unlimited scale, guaranteeing they win the hardware arms race and consolidate AI infrastructure leadership
90d -9.8% · 180d +3.7% · 1y +22.3%
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
Bitcoin trades as a correlated risk asset driven by Trump-era stimulus and deregulation optimism, and the bull trend persists as long as deficit/inflation pictures don't break decisively
“what did I say at the beginning of the year was gonna be the biggest risk asset winning trade yeah it's great bitcoin's great”
90d +7.7% · 180d +14.6% · 1y +4.0%
Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
2024-11-16
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Running 8% of GDP deficits for four to five years under Trump makes a 10-year yield of 7% a mathematical outcome, meaning long-duration bonds are significantly mispriced at the current 4.5% level
“if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years yeah you're going to have the tenure at seven to 8%”
90d +0.1% · 180d +2.6% · 1y -3.1%
Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
2024-10-25
long BITCOIN / short GOLD
pair
All-In Podcast · video
Bitcoin is displacing gold as the dominant inflation hedge, making gold a legacy store-of-value while Bitcoin becomes the definitive one for the next century, so the rotation trade is to be long Bitcoin and underweight gold
“the future is specifically Bitcoin on that Dimension... you're seeing the last vestages of people using gold”
90d +27.9% · 180d +10.4% · 1y +11.4%
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
GLP-1 drugs are structurally reshaping American consumption habits away from the sugary beverages that now drive Starbucks' revenue and growth, a headwind the company cannot fix with its current product mix, implying fair value near $20B versus a far higher…
“the structural problem is Starbucks should be probably a 20 billion asset”
90d -1.3% · 180d +13.9% · 1y +8.1%
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Expedia's business model is a UI layer on top of third-party licensed data—the most fragile structure in an AI world where agents like Perplexity can surface and transact flights directly, bypassing aggregators entirely
“I cannot think of a more fragile business model than the UI layer on top of widely available data”
90d -18.2% · 180d +4.2% · 1y -37.6%
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
2024-08-02
AI INFRASTRUCTURE / CAPEX STOCKS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
The AI buildout by mega-caps won't generate expected ROI because AI is inherently deflationary—it drives margins to near-commodity levels for incumbents—so the massive capex spend is unjustifiable and a reset is inevitable; investors are already recognizing…
“you're going to have to have some sort of reset in terms of the capex that's happened here”
Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Google dominates both AI infrastructure (cloud, TPU custom chips) and the algorithms layer (TensorFlow), positioning it to capture sustained value as enterprise AI spending scales.
“belong Amazon, belong Google but frankly belong box”
90d -15.8% · 180d -18.2% · 1y +23.5%
Chamath presents Box at Sohn Conference 2018
Amazon dominates the cloud infrastructure layer (storage, compute, GPUs) that is the essential foundation for enterprise AI, making it a core long in the AI-infrastructure wave.
“belong Amazon, belong Google but frankly belong box”
90d -33.6% · 180d -33.5% · 1y +4.9%
Chamath presents Box at Sohn Conference 2018
Said again: 2022-09-11 (Sohn Investment Conference)
Tesla is driving a transformational shift in energy and addressing climate change, and despite a slower start than expected since the 2017 Sohn pitch, the long-term thesis remains intact.
“we still believe”
90d -44.9% · 180d -43.0% · 1y -10.1%
Chamath presents Box at Sohn Conference 2018
Showing the 60 most recent of 61 tracked stances.
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