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Investors / stance tracking

What Dan Loeb is saying

Founder/CEO, Third Point

28 dated public stances tracked since 2017-03-09, most recently 2026-06-05. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dan Loeb's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dan Loeb is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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28
tracked stances
25
themes
1
side flips
2026-06-05
last heard
Returns  90d +3.4% (n=13) · 180d +3.7% (n=8) · 1y +0.7% (n=7)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

DIS — bullish2020-08-06 → bearish2024-01-12

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
AMZN21 bullish / 1 neutral2025-04-23
DIS21 bullish / 1 bearish2024-01-12
NVDA22 bullish2026-06-05
ASML11 bullish2026-05-28
BABA11 bullish2020-08-06
CMBS11 bullish2017-03-09

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-06-05 NVDA bullish All-In Podcast · video
Short pressure from long-short funds needing a 'safe short' is artificially suppressing Nvidia's price, and the stock will eventually break out as happened with prior mega-cap tech compounders like Google and Amazon.
“Google was a safe short, Amazon was a safe short... eventually happen with Nvidia”
90d +11.4%
Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
2026-06-05 HOUSING short All-In Podcast · video
Homebuilders face structural impairment from large land-pool commitments disguised as options, while post-COVID cost inflation and unaffordable financing have squeezed margins and demand simultaneously.
“we've been short on things related to that”
90d +1.1%
Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
2026-05-28 X owns Dan Loeb · video
Morgan Stanley offloaded Twitter LBO debt near par at ~12% yield; most credit investors were scared despite the yield and Third Point was comfortable enough with underlying business value to make it their largest credit position at the time
“Most credit investors were really scared...it was yielding around a 12% yield. We made that our largest credit position”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 NVDA bullish Dan Loeb · video
Nvidia trades at ~15x 2027 and ~12x 2028 earnings as the dominant player in AI infrastructure with very fast growth, making it among the most attractive stocks even after significant appreciation
“you can still buy Nvidia...15 times 27, 12 times 28 for the most dominant fastest growing company at its size”
90d -2.0%
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 SEMICONDUCTORS AND SEMI-CAP EQUIPMENT / HYPERSCALERS (AI STACK) bullish Dan Loeb · video
Valuations across semis, semi-cap equipment, and hyperscalers remain attractive relative to growth rates unless one assumes AI capex cycles collapse in 2031-2032, and this is where Third Point's largest capital concentration sits
“I looked at the valuations, I looked at their growth rates...I think it's the most attractive sector right now”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 DHR owns Dan Loeb · video
After selling Danaher earlier, Third Point re-entered a small position following the recent selloff because the business operating system quality remains exceptional even as the post-COVID inventory correction overhang may be clearing
“recently with the recent selloff have gotten back in, but in a small way”
90d +19.5%
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 XAI DEBT FINANCING bullish Dan Loeb · video
Despite only $2B in revenue against a $20B enterprise value and no meaningful cash flow, Third Point was comfortable underwriting xAI's debt because they assessed it as a real business with strong growth, using both credit and private investing analytical…
“very few credit people wanted to play in that one...we were very comfortable that this was a real business”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 ASML owns Dan Loeb · video
ASML is held as a European exception because it is a globally dominant semi-cap equipment company benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout rather than being exposed to weak local European demand
“we're invested in a couple businesses there, Rolls-Royce, ASM, ASML”
90d +8.8%
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 DEFENSE bearish Dan Loeb · video
European companies dependent on the local economy face structural headwinds from regulatory environment and a different attitude toward capitalism, making them less attractive hunting grounds versus Asia
“European markets are just tough right now given the regulatory environment”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 JAPANESE EQUITIES / CORPORATE GOVERNANCE REFORM bullish Dan Loeb · video
Japan is breaking up cross-shareholdings, penalizing companies trading at book value discounts, and improving corporate governance driven by both government policy and shareholder pressure, making it an attractive hunting ground for value-unlocking investments
“they're definitely moving in the right direction...breaking up some of these cross shareholdings”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 RR owns Dan Loeb · video
Rolls-Royce is cited as one of Third Point's European holdings that works because it is a global business not dependent on the weak local European economy
“we're invested in a couple businesses there, Rolls-Royce, ASM, ASML”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2026-05-28 INFORMATION SERVICES / DATA BUSINESSES BEING DISRUPTED BY AI short Dan Loeb · video
Third Point has taken short positions in information services companies believed to be disrupted by AI, though they acknowledge making mistakes by underestimating the speed and breadth of AI disruption on companies they thought had proprietary data moats
“we've made some great short investments in things being disrupted by AI but where we've made the mistake is we thought AI wasn't really going to affect this part”
Legendary Investor Dan Loeb on AI, Credit, & Third Point’s $25B Strategy
2025-04-23 Private Credit bullish Dan Loeb · video
Loeb is leaning heavily into private credit, now ~50% of Third Point's business, because he sees a lot better risk/reward there compared to equities
“there's a lot better risk-reward…massive opportunities in private credit”
90d +13.1% · 180d -1.3% · 1y -1.4%
Third Point CEO Dan Loeb: I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of the American economy
2025-04-23 META bearish Dan Loeb · video
Loeb exited his Meta position in the last few months, rotating away from Magnificent Seven equities toward credit where he sees better risk/reward
“he shifted away from these investments exiting his position in Meta”
90d -35.6% · 180d -40.9% · 1y -27.1%
Third Point CEO Dan Loeb: I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of the American economy
2025-04-23 AMZN neutral Dan Loeb · video
Loeb reduced his Amazon investment as part of a broader rotation away from Mag Seven equities into credit opportunities with better risk/reward
“reducing his investment in Amazon”
Third Point CEO Dan Loeb: I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of the American economy
2024-01-12 NEXT SILICON (AI CHIP COMPANY, PRIVATE) bullish Dan Loeb · video
Next Silicon is doing cutting-edge work in AI chips, has achieved billion-plus valuation, and is part of Israel's strong innovation ecosystem driven by major tech companies like Nvidia, Google, and Meta
“the one that I'm most excited about right now is an AI chip company called Next Silicon which is doing incredibly well”
Dan Loeb Of Third Point Talks Investments Activism And Disney
2024-01-12 DIS bearish Dan Loeb · video
While Disney's parks business and CEO Iger are strong positives, outrunning the structural decline in linear TV makes a full turnaround very difficult
“the parks business is great but outrunning the decline in linear TV is going to be really tough”
Dan Loeb Of Third Point Talks Investments Activism And Disney
2020-08-06 DIS bullish Dan Loeb · video
Disney has unmatched intellectual property and tent-pole content slate, a growing direct-to-consumer distribution network in Disney+, and the pandemic accelerated their shift to streaming while the stock was oversold on theme park/theater closure fears
“there is no close second to Disney when it comes to an entertainment company due to their intellectual property”
90d -4.4% · 180d +35.3% · 1y +35.4%
No close second to Disney in entertainment: Third Point's Loeb
2020-08-06 AMZN bullish Dan Loeb · video
New position initiated in Q2 per quarterly letter, implying conviction in Amazon's outlook, though specific thesis not elaborated in this segment
90d +0.5% · 180d +4.8% · 1y +3.7%
No close second to Disney in entertainment: Third Point's Loeb
2020-08-06 BABA bullish Dan Loeb · video
New position initiated in Q2 per quarterly letter, implying conviction in Alibaba's outlook, though specific thesis not elaborated in this segment
90d +11.3% · 180d -4.2% · 1y -26.1%
No close second to Disney in entertainment: Third Point's Loeb
2020-08-06 JD bullish Dan Loeb · video
New position initiated in Q2 per quarterly letter, implying conviction in JD.com's outlook, though specific thesis not elaborated in this segment
90d +37.6% · 180d +47.0% · 1y +7.2%
No close second to Disney in entertainment: Third Point's Loeb
2019-05-24 WCG bearish Dan Loeb · video
WellCare shares are selling off because Centene's potential sale puts its pending $15.3B acquisition of WellCare in question, creating deal uncertainty risk for WellCare holders
“WellCare group taking a move to the downside”
90d +3.2% · 180d -15.6%
Dan Loeb's Third Point wants Centene to consider selling itself: WSJ
2017-06-26 OR neutral Dan Loeb · video
Nestle's ~23% stake in L'Oreal worth ~$25B is a non-core holding that should be divested to unlock capital for Nestle shareholders
“their stake in L'Oreal, it's about a 23% stake worth somewhere in the region of $25 billion”
Nestle Targeted by Dan Loeb in $3.5 Billion Bet
2017-03-09 FLOATING-RATE CORPORATE BANK LOANS / DISTRESSED DEBT bullish Dan Loeb · video
Follow-the-government strategy: government intervention creates pricing inefficiencies in bank trust preferreds and distressed corporate credit (e.g., Ford finance company revolver at 22% yield), where recovery is de-risked by explicit policy support
“follow what the government's doing you're going to make a lot of money”
Billionaire Daniel Loeb - Hedge Funds and Investment Approach
2017-03-09 CORPORATE AND STRUCTURED-CREDIT RESTRUCTURING CYCLE bullish Dan Loeb · video
Trillions of dollars of corporate high-yield, bank loans, and residential/commercial mortgage debt will need professional restructuring, recreating the distressed-debt opportunity of the early 2000s and making this the best entry point for distressed…
“one of the great restructuring opportunities of all time”
Billionaire Daniel Loeb - Hedge Funds and Investment Approach
2017-03-09 CMBS bullish Dan Loeb · video
Two-trillion-dollar CMBS market is systematically mispriced because it's complex and most investors lack the infrastructure to analyze it, creating high-teens to low-twenties return opportunities with relatively low risk
“finding better rewards in the structured markets than in equities”
Billionaire Daniel Loeb - Hedge Funds and Investment Approach
2017-03-09 USD bullish Dan Loeb · video
Despite chatter from Russia, China, and Middle East about basket alternatives or gold, no currency or mechanism exists to displace the dollar as global reserve within a ten-year investment horizon
“I don't see any other currency replacing the US, not least not for the next ten years”
Billionaire Daniel Loeb - Hedge Funds and Investment Approach
2017-03-09 COPPER bullish Dan Loeb · video
Scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus makes inflation nearly unavoidable, so assets with floating/commodity-linked cash flows (bank loans with floating coupons, apartments, hotel companies, basic materials) hedge the portfolio against rate risk embedded in…
“it's hard to see that without risking inflation”
Billionaire Daniel Loeb - Hedge Funds and Investment Approach

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