Investors / stance tracking
What Zoltan Pozsar is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Ex Uno Plures; ex-Credit Suisse
36 dated public stances tracked since 2019-12-13, most recently 2026-03-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Zoltan Pozsar's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Zoltan Pozsar is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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36
tracked stances
25
themes
1
side flips
2026-03-27
last heard
Returns 90d +0.2% 39% correct · 23 calls · 180d +3.8% 57% correct · 23 calls · 1y +10.0% 59% correct · 22 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | GOLD | bearish | +10.9% | +5.3% | — |
| 2025-01-04 | USD | bearish | +3.8% | +8.2% | +4.8% |
| 2025-01-04 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -7.9% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 2025-01-04 | GOLD | bullish | +15.0% | +26.3% | +68.1% |
| 2025-01-04 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -2.6% | +3.5% | +9.6% |
| 2023-06-30 | USD | bearish | -4.7% | -1.0% | -9.2% |
| 2023-06-30 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +13.1% | +0.2% | +9.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | GOLD | bullish | -2.8% | +8.0% | +20.9% |
| 2023-05-20 | Commercial Real Estate | bearish | -0.6% | +0.1% | -8.8% |
| 2023-05-20 | BITCOIN | bullish | -3.9% | +33.3% | +144.5% |
| 2023-05-20 | BANKS | bearish | -11.4% | -13.7% | -38.5% |
| 2023-03-15 | LITHIUM | bullish | +11.3% | -0.7% | -21.9% |
| 2023-03-15 | DEFENSE | bullish | +4.5% | -0.2% | +15.1% |
| 2023-03-15 | COPPER | bullish | -0.6% | -1.1% | +6.4% |
| 2023-03-13 | ENERGY | bullish | +0.5% | +14.4% | +13.9% |
| 2023-03-13 | Commodities Broad | bullish | -5.0% | +7.2% | -0.5% |
| 2023-03-07 | USD | bearish | +0.4% | -2.1% | -3.7% |
| 2023-03-07 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.9% | +6.6% | +2.2% |
| 2023-03-07 | GOLD | bullish | +8.0% | +5.9% | +17.9% |
| 2022-05-18 | USTS | bearish | -1.3% | +6.1% | +2.7% |
| 2022-05-18 | USD | bearish | -2.6% | -3.6% | -3.0% |
| 2022-05-18 | SPX | bearish | -10.1% | -1.7% | -8.8% |
| 2022-04-05 | GOLD | bullish | -8.1% | -11.6% | +4.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-03-27 | |
| USD | 4 | 4 bearish | 2025-01-04 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-01-04 | |
| Commodities Broad | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-01-04 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-05-20 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2023-05-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Gold failed to perform as a safe-haven during the Iran war, Turkish and other central banks are monetizing holdings, and private speculative demand is reconsidering the asset after a 15-20% decline from early March highs.
“one very simple asset stuck out that I think was a wonderful short which was gold”
90d +10.9% · 180d +5.3%
Natixis CIB Macro Markets Panel Discussion: The Fed's New Face & Financial Plumbing Vulnerabilities
2025-01-06
INFLATION / STRUCTURALLY HIGHER INFLATION REGIME
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
It is nearly impossible to return to 2% inflation because the disinflationary tailwind from cheap Chinese goods is reversing due to the US-China trade war, and a tight labor market will be further pressured by Trump's immigration crackdown.
“almost impossible for the world to go back to 2% inflation”
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part2 ) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
Gold will play an increased role in the monetary system as inflation remains structurally sticky and currencies diversify away from the dollar, making it an excellent inflation hedge.
“gold could play an increased role and I think that's definitely right”
90d +15.0% · 180d +26.3% · 1y +68.1%
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part1) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
Said again: 2025-01-06 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2025-01-04
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Persistent inflation and geopolitical disruption make the traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio ineffective, as bonds no longer provide the hedge they once did.
“the traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation will struggle in this environment”
90d -7.9% · 180d -2.2% · 1y -5.1%
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part1) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
2025-01-04
Commodities Broad
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Chronic underinvestment in the resource sector combined with geopolitical conflicts and labor issues will keep inflation sticky, making commodities a necessary portfolio allocation replacing the traditional 60/40 framework.
“20% for cash, 40% for stock, 20% for bonds and 20% for Commodities”
90d -2.6% · 180d +3.5% · 1y +9.6%
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part1) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
The world is moving toward a multi-polar reserve currency system where the RMB and Euro increasingly challenge dollar dominance, driven by China's current account surpluses and expanded use of RMB swap lines in international trade.
“moving into a multi-polar reserve currency world where dollar will be challenged by the renminbi and the Euro”
90d +3.8% · 180d +8.2% · 1y +4.8%
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part1) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
Said again: 2025-01-06 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2025-01-04
RMB
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
China's current account surpluses and expanding use of bilateral swap lines to settle trade in RMB will gradually increase the currency's reserve status without requiring nations to hold large reserves.
“trade can occur in renminbi without nations needing to hold vast reserves of the currency”
An interview with Zoltan Pozsar（part1) : Adapting to the NEW WORLD ORDER
Said again: 2025-01-06 (Zoltan Pozsar)
Non-Western central banks are actively diversifying away from US Treasuries and accumulating gold as geopolitical alignment shifts, evidenced by accelerating EM central bank purchases and commodity-for-gold bilateral deals (Ghana/Russia)
“gold is definitely something that's coming back as a theme”
90d -2.8% · 180d +8.0% · 1y +20.9%
2023-06-30
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
video
Structural foreign demand for Treasuries is eroding as dedollarization reduces the need for dollar reserve accumulation, meaning the US will increasingly rely on domestic buyers and Fed scaffolding to absorb supply
“demand for treasuries from the rest of the world is probably not going to be what it once was”
90d +13.1% · 180d +0.2% · 1y +9.0%
As commodity trade invoicing shifts to RMB and other currencies and a Central Bank-to-Central Bank FX settlement network bypasses dollar intermediation, structural dollar demand weakens over a 5-10 year horizon
“the dollar's hegemony is going to be challenged by some geo-financial moves”
90d -4.7% · 180d -1.0% · 1y -9.2%
2023-05-20
QE
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
The US government faces a structural funding problem that will force the Fed to restart QE in order to keep a lid on Treasury yields and prevent swap spreads from getting out of place
“the Fed is probably going to restart QE to keep a lid on Treasury yields”
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
2023-05-20
STRUCTURAL INFLATION / STICKY INFLATION
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Inflation will remain structurally elevated because today's environment lacks the tailwinds Volcker had — no new commodity supply, labor shortages, geopolitical instability, and a political shift toward labor over capital.
“this fed is not as lucky as Paul Volcker used to be”
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
Bitcoin, like gold, is correctly pricing in the inflationary and monetary debasement implications of backdoor Fed balance sheet expansion via programs like BTFP.
“the reaction of gold and Bitcoin… seeing through this Bank term funding program as highly inflationary”
90d -3.9% · 180d +33.3% · 1y +144.5%
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
Smaller US banks loaded up on long-duration assets while funding with flighty short-term liabilities and failed to hedge interest rate risk, making them structurally vulnerable as rates stay higher for longer
“the asset side went bad and the liability side went bad”
90d -11.4% · 180d -13.7% · 1y -38.5%
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
2023-05-20
US SMALL BANK EQUITIES
bearish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Small US banks are structurally vulnerable because they failed to hedge interest rate and duration risk, leaving them exposed as rates rise and their depositor bases face liquidity problems.
“these problems are going to continue to bubble up”
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
2023-05-20
STRUCTURAL INFLATION / STICKY INFLATION THEME
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Unlike the Volcker era, today's inflation is structural due to labor shortages, commodity underinvestment, geopolitical fragmentation, and a political shift from capital to labor, meaning inflation will prove stickier than consensus expects
“this Fed is not as lucky as Paul Volcker”
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
2023-05-20
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Rising interest rates are exposing hidden losses in commercial real estate across the banking system globally, and these problems will continue to surface as rates stay elevated.
“who gets hurt to what extent by the real estate problems in commercial real estate… these problems are going to continue to bubble up”
90d -0.6% · 180d +0.1% · 1y -8.8%
Zoltan & Arthur Hayes: New Monetary Order at Bitcoin 2023
Said again: 2023-06-30
2023-04-24
OIL AND GAS PRODUCERS
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Majors are buying back stock rather than investing in new drilling due to regulatory and permitting uncertainty, creating a persistent supply deficit that supports prices regardless of demand cyclicality
“majors in oil are buying back stock due to uncertainty over permitting and drilling over the next 10 years”
Zoltan Pozsar Interview Goes Viral After He Issues New WARNING
G7 governments are dramatically increasing military budgets and defense manufacturers are building extra factories to restock inventories, representing a sustained structural increase in defense spending that offsets recessionary impulses.
“CEOs of defense manufacturers are all trying to build extra factories to basically be able to restock faster”
90d +4.5% · 180d -0.2% · 1y +15.1%
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 1)
2023-03-15
OIL AND GAS
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Shale production has peaked, oil majors are buying back shares rather than investing in new production, and OPEC+ is signaling less supply not more, breaking the historical price-signal feedback loop that previously cured high prices with higher production.
“the cure to high prices is high prices... that feedback loop today is broken”
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 1)
Lithium-rich nations are nationalizing resources, proposing OPEC-style cartels, and imposing export tariffs on raw lithium to capture value-chain benefits, structurally restricting supply just as battery and EV demand accelerates.
“there are countries that are proposing to have an OPEC for lithium”
90d +11.3% · 180d -0.7% · 1y -21.9%
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 1)
Said again: 2023-04-24 (Zoltan Pozsar)
Easy-to-access copper deposits are depleted globally, new mines take years to bring online, and demand is set to surge from electrification and industrial reshoring, making supply structurally constrained against rising demand.
“to just economically get copper out of the ground is becoming more and more costly and complicated”
90d -0.6% · 180d -1.1% · 1y +6.4%
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 1)
Said again: 2023-04-24 (Zoltan Pozsar)
A decade of under-investment in oil and gas fields has left energy markets structurally tight, and geopolitical fragmentation means supply-side risks are skewed to the upside rather than the downside
“energy markets alongside other commodity markets are extremely tight because we basically just finished a decade of no investments in oil and gas fields”
90d +0.5% · 180d +14.4% · 1y +13.9%
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 2)
Said again: 2023-03-15 (Zoltan Pozsar), 2023-05-20 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2023-03-13
FED FUNDS RATE / SHORT-TERM RATES (HIGHER FOR LONGER)
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
With labor markets at record-tight levels, wage growth at 4-5%, and food/energy inflation stochastic with upside risks, the Fed has no choice but to keep rates at or above 5% for an extended period and hike further if needed, meaning markets pricing early…
“make no mistake about this, the Fed is going to do a tough job”
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 2)
2023-03-13
Commodities Broad
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
The deflationary tailwinds of cheap capital, cheap commodities, and functioning supply chains that enabled QE are gone, replaced by structural shortages across virtually every commodity input, supporting a multi-year bull case.
“we are stuck basically with a shortage of virtually everything that determines inflation in Western societies”
90d -5.0% · 180d +7.2% · 1y -0.5%
Zoltan Pozsar 2023 Interview (Part 2)
Said again: 2023-03-15 (Zoltan Pozsar), 2023-04-24 (Zoltan Pozsar), 2023-05-20 (Zoltan Pozsar)
As G7 inside money loses appeal following Russia sanctions, central banks and commodity exporters will rotate into physical gold as a monetary anchor outside any jurisdiction's control
“you can also demand payments for gas delivered in gold”
90d +8.0% · 180d +5.9% · 1y +17.9%
Zoltan Pozsar The Mechanisme Has Been Damaged. Change will come - Zoltan Pozsar
Said again: 2023-03-13 (Zoltan Pozsar), 2023-05-20 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2023-03-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Shifting commodity trade away from dollar financing breaks the recycling loop where petrodollars fund treasury auctions, creating both a flow and stock demand problem for Treasuries
“you will feel the impact…there's a stock problem, there's a flow problem”
90d -0.9% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +2.2%
Zoltan Pozsar The Mechanisme Has Been Damaged. Change will come - Zoltan Pozsar
Said again: 2023-03-13 (Zoltan Pozsar), 2023-05-20 (Zoltan Pozsar)
Freezing Russian FX reserves damaged trust in G7 inside money, incentivizing non-Western central banks to diversify away from USD, reducing structural dollar demand over time
“that whole mechanism has been damaged, it's inevitable that change will come”
90d +0.4% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -3.7%
Zoltan Pozsar The Mechanisme Has Been Damaged. Change will come - Zoltan Pozsar
Said again: 2023-03-13 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2023-03-07
RENMINBI (CNY) / CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM ASSETS
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Commodity exporters sanctioned by G7 will accumulate RMB balances in Chinese banks as a friendly-jurisdiction alternative to USD/EUR reserves, increasing RMB's role in global trade
“you can then start to accumulate balances in a friendly jurisdiction that didn't sanction you”
Zoltan Pozsar The Mechanisme Has Been Damaged. Change will come - Zoltan Pozsar
Reserve managers accumulated USD/Treasuries to suppress their currencies for export competitiveness, but in a geopolitically fragmented world where sanctions risk dominates, that incentive disappears and the case for large dollar reserve stockpiles weakens…
“would i say could it potentially be a peak euro dollar yes”
90d -2.6% · 180d -3.6% · 1y -3.0%
The challenge to the USD | Zoltan Pozsar and Adam Tooze
Current inflation is structural — a shortage economy with labor dislocation and demand permanently above supply — not cyclical, requiring the Fed to hike well beyond market pricing to a 4–5% peak.
“rates have gone up a lot i think they will have to go up way more uh you know think like four percent five percent”
90d -1.3% · 180d +6.1% · 1y +2.7%
The challenge to the USD | Zoltan Pozsar and Adam Tooze
The Fed is deliberately engineering reverse wealth effects to crush demand in a shortage economy, and markets are wrong to treat this as a normal cyclical hiking cycle with cuts to follow, leaving equities with significant additional downside.
“the fed is basically proactively purposefully by design engineering reverse wealth effects”
90d -10.1% · 180d -1.7% · 1y -8.8%
The challenge to the USD | Zoltan Pozsar and Adam Tooze
2022-04-05
short UNKNOWN / long RMB
pair
Zoltan Pozsar · video
EUR weakens as Western inside money loses reserve appeal and sanctioned commodity exporters shift invoicing away from dollars and euros, while RMB appreciates because China acts as the world's commodity central banker with large stockpiles and close ties to…
“short euro and long RMB”
Zoltan Pozsar Explains MELTING Dollar, Rise of China, Sanctions & Commodities, Bretton Woods 3, etc.
G7 inside money losing reserve-currency allure forces sovereign diversification into physical monetary assets; gold provides a nominal anchor in a world where paper claims face confiscation risk and currency debasement
“I think you buy gold, I think that's a very obvious winner”
90d -8.1% · 180d -11.6% · 1y +4.8%
Zoltan Pozsar Explains MELTING Dollar, Rise of China, Sanctions & Commodities, Bretton Woods 3, etc.
Said again: 2022-05-18 (Zoltan Pozsar)
2022-04-05
SHIPPING COMPANIES / FREIGHT RATES
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Russia sanctions force a global redrawing of commodity trade routes — longer voyages replacing direct northern-Russia-to-Rotterdam lanes — requiring more vessels and driving structurally higher dry and wet cargo freight rates
“shipping freight rates are also a good way of expressing some of these themes”
Zoltan Pozsar Explains MELTING Dollar, Rise of China, Sanctions & Commodities, Bretton Woods 3, etc.
2019-12-13
YEAR-END OVERNIGHT REPO RATES
bullish
Zoltan Pozsar · video
Primary dealers lack balance sheet to intermediate the Fed's repo facility at year-end regulatory snapshot dates because their leverage ratios preclude taking delivery and re-distributing Fed liquidity, creating a funding stress event likely worse than…
“if you thought September was bad oh man December can get even worse”
Zoltan Pozsar November 2019 Interview on Repo Market Madness
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