Founding Partner, Phinance Technologies
6 dated public stances tracked since 2025-05-28, most recently 2026-03-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Edward Dowd's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Edward Dowd is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2026-03-24
USD
bullish
Lacy Hunt · video
Oil price shock from the war is creating a liquidity squeeze and rising credit defaults, which will drive dollar shortage and a significant dollar rally by year-end
“we expect the US dollar to catch a bid and be a lot higher by the end of this year”
90d +2.6% · 180d +3.0%
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts
2025-05-28
AI / DATA-CENTER CAPEX THEME
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI capex added 1.2% to GDP in Q1 2025 on a 70% YoY surge—peak second-derivative means spending growth will now contract, collapsing the demand driver that underpinned AI-linked equities
“the AI bubble we think has peaked… it's going to go the other way”
Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding
2025-05-28
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Wealthion · video
Growth is slowing rapidly, real yields at 2% are strangling the economy, housing deflation will drag CPI below 2% by Q4 2025, and a recession-driven flight to safety will crush bond yields significantly lower
“the trade of the year is going to be risk off, be in US government bonds”
90d +2.8% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +5.0%
Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding
2025-05-28
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
The post-April rally is a counter-trend bounce off an AI-bubble burst and tariff shock, valuations remain 'atrocious,' and the housing downturn has not yet shown up in hard data—when it does it will drag earnings and economic activity
“the potential for a crash comes from the failure of that rally… valuations are still atrocious”
90d -10.1% · 180d -14.4% · 1y -29.9%
Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding
2025-05-28
OIL
bearish
Wealthion · video
Global commodity prices peaked in 2022 and have rolled over since, as Chinese housing completions approach zero and synchronized global recession destroys end demand
“oil is going to roll over… commodity demand is rolling over”
90d -9.1% · 180d -3.7% · 1y -92.6%
Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding
2025-05-28
US RESIDENTIAL HOUSING
bearish
Wealthion · video
An 18-year housing cycle is peaking simultaneous with deportation-driven loss of the marginal renter, home prices unaffordable vs rents, permits rolling over since 2022, and new home inventories near 2006-07 levels—all pointing to a price correction that will…
“this is what we call a white swan event… it's going to happen”
Edward Dowd: Housing Is Cracking, 2025 Recession Unfolding
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