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Investors / stance tracking

What Brent Johnson is saying

CEO, Santiago Capital

41 dated public stances tracked since 2023-09-03, most recently 2026-08-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Brent Johnson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Brent Johnson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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41
tracked stances
12
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-21
last heard
Returns  90d +0.6% (n=32) · 180d +5.6% (n=23) · 1y +4.2% (n=21)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

SPX — bearish2025-08-15 → bullish2026-04-01
SPX — bullish2023-09-03 → bearish2024-09-06

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
USD1414 bullish2026-08-21
GOLD88 bullish2026-08-21
SPX53 bullish / 2 bearish2026-08-09
CASH22 neutral2026-04-01
Em Equities22 bearish2026-04-01
USTS21 bearish / 1 neutral2024-08-08

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-21 T bullish Brent Johnson · video
A 20% cash allocation in T-bills (~4% yield) preserves dry powder to buy distressed assets during a credit crunch rather than being forced to sell at the worst time, with the option value of that liquidity more than compensating for the inflation drag on the…
“that 20% that's sitting in cash earning 3% or 4%, you can then go put that to work at a really discounted rate”
Why a Strong Dollar is the Real Danger | Brent Johnson on the Yen Carry Trade
2026-08-21 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
The Eurodollar market means US rate rises tighten credit globally, creating dollar demand precisely when stress peaks; the dollar must rise before any monetary system transition can occur, and capital flows to US relative advantages during crises
“I think it'll only happen with the dollar rising versus foreign currencies”
Why a Strong Dollar is the Real Danger | Brent Johnson on the Yen Carry Trade
2026-08-21 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Gold holds absolute purchasing power unlike currencies which trade only relative to each other, and its 2019 designation as a Tier 1 reserve asset has driven sustained central bank accumulation that has pushed gold above bonds in reserve portfolios
“gold trades as an absolute value because it holds that purchasing power — that's why everybody should own it”
Why a Strong Dollar is the Real Danger | Brent Johnson on the Yen Carry Trade
2026-08-20 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
The $40T+ eurodollar market creates inescapable structural demand for dollars because global borrowers must source dollars to service dollar-denominated liabilities, making the dollar strong on a relative basis versus other fiat peers regardless of domestic…
“on a relative basis the dollar is going to dramatically outperform the rest of these fiat currencies”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory Explained — Brent Johnson | Tall Oaks
2026-08-20 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Even as the dollar strengthens against foreign currencies, ongoing fiat monetary expansion debases purchasing power over time, making gold a necessary portfolio allocation to capture the debasement trade that runs alongside dollar strength
“I thought gold would go higher as well...it can still be getting debased over time”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory Explained — Brent Johnson | Tall Oaks
2026-08-20 long SPX / short International Dev pair Brent Johnson · video
Dollar milkshake capital flows concentrate in the US, making US equities likely to outperform EM and international developed equities on a risk-adjusted basis because EM carries embedded currency risk that the equity risk premium does not adequately…
“I don't think it's necessary to go buy these international or developed market equities”
The Dollar Milkshake Theory Explained — Brent Johnson | Tall Oaks
2026-08-11 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Gold can appreciate alongside a strong dollar because foreign central bank demand for gold as a reserve alternative to Treasuries is structural, and a dollar strong enough to force a global monetary system reset would position gold as the primary beneficiary…
“you don't have to have the dollar falling or dying or going into hyperinflation for gold to do really really well”
Brent Johnson: Why the Dollar Isn't Dying (And Why That Matters) | SIH
2026-08-11 long CORN FUTURES / long WHEAT FUTURES / long SOYBEAN FUTURES / long SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES basket Brent Johnson · video
Iran conflict disrupted fertilizer and chemical supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz during the spring planting season, and combined with an El Niño year, crop yield shortfalls haven't been priced in yet; prices are near long-term lows, creating…
“I think corn and wheat, soybeans, soybean meal — I think these could really do well kind of late Q4, early next year”
Brent Johnson: Why the Dollar Isn't Dying (And Why That Matters) | SIH
2026-08-09 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Global debt system will eventually lose control, forcing dollar printing that debases fiat; gold is the cornerstone hedge and the destination for capital fleeing sovereign bonds when the milkshake theory plays out
“owning gold as a cornerstone of your portfolio is something everybody should do”
The Great Yen Intervention is a Problem for the Whole World & your Portfolio needs to Understand Why
2026-08-09 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
US/BOJ intervention can slow but not reverse yen depreciation because markets are ultimately more powerful than governments, and Japan's structural monetary situation has not changed despite rate hikes
“I think the yen is going to 200 and I think it's going to go to 300 but it's not going to be a straight line”
The Great Yen Intervention is a Problem for the Whole World & your Portfolio needs to Understand Why
2026-08-09 SPX bullish Brent Johnson · video
As foreign sovereign bond yields rise and capital flees non-dollar debt, the milkshake theory predicts flows concentrate into US equities as one of the two primary destinations alongside gold
“that's how you get gold going higher. That's how you get US equities going higher”
The Great Yen Intervention is a Problem for the Whole World & your Portfolio needs to Understand Why
2026-06-18 USD bullish Macro Voices · video
Dedollarization is a myth — FX turnover, cross-border lending, and trade invoicing are all at all-time highs, and the structural dual carry-trade burden on every non-dollar country means the dollar retains irreplaceable utility that competitors cannot…
“dedollarization is largely a myth... foreign holdings of US financial assets have almost doubled in eight years”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-18 AGRICULTURE / FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN bullish Macro Voices · video
Ships did not transit during the planting season so fertilizers, chemicals, and crop additives were disrupted, setting up a potential food cascade in Q4 2026 or 2027
“I think the fact that didn't happen sets us up for a potential food cascade later this year”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-18 DEFENSE bullish Macro Voices · video
Deglobalization and rising nationalism mean every country will be forced to rearm regardless of fiscal capacity, driving a sustained multi-year capex cycle in defense
“National defense is probably going to be the biggest investment opportunity any of us have ever seen”
MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back
2026-06-14 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
The dollar cannot die of weakness because every move toward dollar weakness generates more dollar-denominated debt, trapping the world inside the system; structural end-game, if it comes, arrives via dollar strength not collapse
“every move towards weakness creates more of the dollar debt that keeps the world inside the system”
The Secret Reason the US Dollar will NOT Die of Weakness
2026-04-01 SPX owns Julia La Roche Show · video
In three of four plausible macro scenarios the US outperforms the rest of the world due to superior liquidity, resilience to negative shocks, and continued capital inflows from the dollar milkshake dynamic
“95% of our equity exposure is US equity because I think that is has the most liquidity”
90d +14.3%
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01 Em Equities bearish Julia La Roche Show · video
The widely-discussed rotation out of US equities into international and emerging markets is unnecessary because in most macro scenarios the US still outperforms on a risk-adjusted basis
“that rotation... to me that is not necessary”
90d -20.2%
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01 JAPANESE YEN (SHORT JPY / WEAK YEN THEME) bearish Julia La Roche Show · video
Japan is trapped between collapsing JGB values if rates rise and continued yen depreciation if they don't, making further yen weakness likely with systemic knock-on risks to regional currencies and global markets
“the yen is at 160 and potentially going higher... that can lead to many many problems”
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01 CASH neutral Julia La Roche Show · video
High uncertainty between now and the midterms favors capital preservation over growth, making short-duration instruments the preferred holding
“between now and the midterms I think it's don't lose it. Capital preservation mode.”
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-04-01 USD bullish Julia La Roche Show · video
US government endorsement via the GENIUS Act co-opts stablecoin technology as a geopolitical tool to deepen dollar dominance globally, displace local currencies in EM countries, and extend US monetary reach outside the traditional banking system
“stable coins are a way to electronically send dollars outside the traditional banking system... entrench the dollar more than it ever has been before”
90d +2.5%
Brent Johnson: The Investing Rules Have Changed — Power Now Matters More Than Economics
2026-03-24 USD bullish Lacy Hunt · video
Stablecoins make dollar-holding infinitely easier for foreign populations fleeing weak local currencies, amplifying the dollar milkshake dynamic and accelerating dollar demand globally
“stable coins have the potential to be as transformative to the global monetary system as when the United States cut the linkage to gold”
90d +2.6%
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts
2026-03-19 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
A barbell dynamic is concentrating monetary value into gold as secondary fiat currencies get hollowed out by USD stablecoin competition, leaving gold as the dominant store of value on the monetary side of that barbell
“people ask if I really want to hold value for the next 100 years I think I'm going to own some gold”
90d -8.9%
Brent Johnson Revisits the Dollar Milkshake in 2026
2026-03-05 GOLD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Gold can reach $10,000–$20,000 as a separate battle from the dollar thesis — not mutually exclusive with a strong dollar — driven by fractional reserve rehypothecation in paper gold markets creating far more claims than physical ounces, plus gold-backed…
“gold can go to $10,000, $20,000 — it's just a separate battle”
90d -12.5% · 180d -14.9%
Ep. 33: Brent Johnson – Santiago Capital Founder & “Milkshake Theory” Creator
2026-03-05 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
The dollar is structurally the 'best of all bad options' because every other country shares the same fundamental problems (debt, inequality, political dysfunction) but lacks the dollar's network advantages — the Eurodollar market has created hundreds of…
“it's the best of all the bad options”
90d +1.4% · 180d +2.7%
Ep. 33: Brent Johnson – Santiago Capital Founder & “Milkshake Theory” Creator
2025-08-15 SPX bearish Forward Guidance · video
Confluence of rare simultaneous signals — CTAs 95% long, VIX and bond vol at lows, momentum diverging from price, extreme market concentration in 10 stocks, extreme valuations, and tariffs now actually arriving — creates conditions for a 10–15% drawdown…
“July was the first time in 25 years that every little single thing I looked at told me to sell”
90d -4.7% · 180d -8.2% · 1y -21.4%
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-15 USD bullish Forward Guidance · video
US dollar stablecoins will eventually replace eurodollar rails, giving the US government direct control over global monetary plumbing — a structural power shift analogous to the LIBOR-to-SOFR transition — making dollar-denominated stablecoin infrastructure a…
“It's the US creating its own channel that could eventually become the eurodollar rails”
90d +2.6% · 180d +1.5% · 1y +6.3%
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-31 USD bullish Wealthion · video
Global dollar-denominated debt must be serviced in dollars regardless of de-dollarization rhetoric, and Trump tariffs reduce dollar outflows to the rest of the world — both forces structurally support a stronger dollar, not a weaker one.
“the path to dollarization is the dollar going higher”
90d -3.0% · 180d -8.6% · 1y -5.0%
Wealthion’s Best Of 2024: Brent Johnson
2024-09-07 USD bullish Wealthion · video
The global stock of dollar-denominated debt makes full de-dollarization structurally impossible without a devastating deflationary deleveraging that no government would accept; paradoxically, the path to genuine de-dollarization requires the dollar going…
“the path to de-dollarization is the dollar going higher if the dollar goes lower that just perpetuates the current system”
90d +5.8% · 180d +5.2% · 1y +0.9%
Weekly Recap: Recession vs. Bullishness? A Weaker Dollar? & Build To Rent
2024-09-06 USD bullish Wealthion · video
The eurodollar debt structure forces the rest of the world to acquire dollars to service obligations they cannot print, making any de-dollarization path self-defeating and dollar-bullish via forced deleveraging
“the path to dollarization is the dollar going higher”
90d +5.9% · 180d +5.7% · 1y +1.3%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06 GOLD bullish Wealthion · video
Within the milkshake framework, gold rises alongside both the dollar and interest rates as global risk-off capital seeks multiple safe havens simultaneously, breaking the traditional dollar-gold inverse
“gold will go higher even though interest rates are going higher and the dollar is going higher”
90d +5.3% · 180d +16.9% · 1y +45.2%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Wealthion · video
The 40-year bond bull market has ended; rising rates are a structural feature of the milkshake regime, not a temporary aberration, and coexist with a rising dollar and rising equities
“we will inter a period of time where the 40-year bond bull market will come to an end”
90d +4.4% · 180d +7.0% · 1y +5.9%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06 SPX bearish Wealthion · video
US equities are in an unsustainable bubble at all-time highs with rate cuts already priced in, making a significant drawdown likely within weeks to months before the longer bull resumes
“sometime in the next six months perhaps as early as the next two or three weeks we're going to have another hard drawdown”
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06 CASH neutral Wealthion · video
With Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P simultaneously at or near all-time highs and anticipated Fed cuts already priced in, cash is the best risk-adjusted position ahead of an expected near-term correction
“the best thing I think somebody could put in their portfolio right now is Cash”
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-09-06 China Equities bearish Wealthion · video
China's real estate collapse and the failure of successive monetary loosening rounds leave its economy in worse shape than consensus believes, with global contagion risk over the next one to two years
“the Chinese real estate market is really just a disaster”
90d -19.1% · 180d -46.4% · 1y -59.2%
Brent Johnson: The De-Dollarization Delusion & $USD’s Enduring Reign
2024-08-08 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
All fiat currencies debase as governments manage debt crises; dollar outlasts peers but gold outperforms everything on a pure currency basis, with no counterparty risk
“my long-term price target for gold has been $5,000”
90d +9.7% · 180d +17.2% · 1y +39.7%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
2024-08-08 USD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Global euro-dollar debt demand keeps dollar bid in all crisis scenarios; de-globalization restricts dollar supply while demand is unchanged, and every prior 25-year crisis episode has coincided with a rising dollar
“investing is all about banking on the probabilities and the dollar beats other currencies”
90d +3.4% · 180d +7.3% · 1y +0.2%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
2024-08-08 USTS bearish Forward Guidance · video
Global capital is pivoting from sovereign bonds to US equities for safety; yields are permanently higher as fiscal doom loop continues and foreign demand for treasuries as collateral diminishes relative to demand for US equities
“people incorrectly think he is a treasury bull”
90d +2.3% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -2.9%
The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson
2023-09-03 USD bullish Brent Johnson · video
Political instability (Draghi and Merkel exiting, independence movements in Italy/Spain/Greece) combined with dollar short-squeeze will drain capital from Europe and push the euro to parity and then well below
“I think the euro is going to go back to par with the dollar and eventually go much lower”
90d -0.4% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -3.1%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
2023-09-03 USTS neutral Brent Johnson · video
European sovereign yields are irrationally trading below the US risk-free rate; as capital flees to the dollar and dollar strength bites European economies, yields should at minimum double
“why in the hell are these countries yielding less than the risk-free rate, it doesn't make any sense”
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
2023-09-03 Em Equities bearish Brent Johnson · video
$200B of EM dollar-denominated debt matures within 24 months and must be repaid in an appreciating dollar while EM economies are already hurting and dollar supply is falling — Turkey and Argentina are the leading template
“200 billion dollars of debt that has to be repaid by emerging markets in the next 24 months”
90d +0.1% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -11.0%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson
2023-09-03 SPX bullish Brent Johnson · video
Capital fleeing Europe, Asia, Australia, and EM will treat US stocks as a refuge from the global storm, driving a massive blow-off top to all-time highs before the eventual crash when the dollar finally reverses
“I think we're going to have a massive blow off top”
90d +2.0% · 180d +15.0% · 1y +24.6%
Dollar Milkshake Theory EXPLAINED in this slide deck presentation by Brent Johnson

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