Investors / stance tracking
What Danny Dayan is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCIO, DWD Partners
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-01, most recently 2025-07-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Danny Dayan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Danny Dayan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
9
themes
0
side flips
2025-07-30
last heard
Returns 90d +4.7% 69% correct · 13 calls · 180d +4.5% 62% correct · 13 calls · 1y +9.2% 62% correct · 13 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-30 | USD | bearish | -0.1% | +0.5% | -4.5% |
| 2025-07-30 | SPX | bullish | +8.6% | +9.8% | +18.2% |
| 2025-07-30 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -7.1% | -4.0% | +0.3% |
| 2025-04-26 | Long Dur Treasuries | short | +2.3% | -4.5% | -0.8% |
| 2025-04-25 | USTS | short | -0.2% | -4.6% | -4.0% |
| 2025-04-25 | USD | bearish | +1.0% | -1.8% | -3.6% |
| 2025-04-25 | SPX | bullish | +15.6% | +22.0% | +31.4% |
| 2024-12-21 | China Equities | bullish | +19.1% | +17.4% | +29.0% |
| 2024-08-01 | USTS | bearish | +1.1% | +1.7% | -3.3% |
| 2024-08-01 | USD | bearish | -1.3% | -6.2% | +0.1% |
| 2024-08-01 | SPX | owns | +7.1% | +12.0% | +15.9% |
| 2024-08-01 | GOLD | bullish | +14.1% | +13.0% | +36.9% |
| 2024-08-01 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +0.6% | +3.7% | +4.3% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-07-30 | |
| USD | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-07-30 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-07-30 | |
| USTS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-04-25 | |
| China Equities | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-12-21 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-08-01 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Fed is pricing cuts despite full employment and above-target inflation, an incoming dovish Fed chair appointment is baked in for 2026, and trade barriers are reducing dollar supply to trading partners — all three create a self-reinforcing doom loop where…
“this could run away from them if the dollar really cascades”
90d -0.1% · 180d +0.5% · 1y -4.5%
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
Said again: 2025-07-31 (Forward Guidance)
Inflation at 3–4% is benign for equity revenues, dollar weakness flatters the ~30% of S&P revenues from abroad, institutional positioning remains underweight and is still chasing, and the bond market's failure to price the inflation impulse removes the key…
“risk assets are going to keep going until the bond market or the Fed gets serious about inflation”
90d +8.6% · 180d +9.8% · 1y +18.2%
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
2025-07-30
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Rising inflation impulse from dollar weakness, money supply growth, and services-sector price pass-through (PMIs prices-paid unrelated to tariffs) should force bond yields meaningfully higher, though the market has been frustratingly slow to price it
“I don't see the bond market taking this very seriously”
90d -7.1% · 180d -4.0% · 1y +0.3%
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
2025-04-26
Long Dur Treasuries
short
Forward Guidance · video
Tariffs, structural deficits, and sticky inflation create a stagflationary backdrop where any growth improvement is also bond-bearish, making sustained rallies unsustainable
“I look for opportunities to short bonds. I've been reshorting in recent days.”
90d +2.3% · 180d -4.5% · 1y -0.8%
Stagflation Is Back—And Bonds Are Toast
Narrowing current account deficit reduces dollar supply to trading partners, and negative real yields from sticky inflation combined with potential rate cuts make US assets unappealing to foreigners, reinforcing a sustained doom loop of dollar weakness
“I think the dollar is going to weaken materially from all the dynamics that we talked about”
90d +1.0% · 180d -1.8% · 1y -3.6%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-04-26 (Forward Guidance)
Trade war temperature being taken down creates a tactical bounce opportunity as incremental headlines turn constructive, though the medium-term stagflation backdrop makes this a rent-not-own position with a wide range of outcomes
“you look for opportunities to rent the market, not to own it”
90d +15.6% · 180d +22.0% · 1y +31.4%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-04-26 (Forward Guidance)
Dollar doom loop and sticky inflation mean bond market is pricing only the weak-growth side of stagflation while ignoring the inflation side, making long bonds vulnerable to yield repricing higher as any Fed easing would worsen inflation and crush the dollar
“I look for opportunities to short bonds. I've been re-shorting in recent days”
90d -0.2% · 180d -4.6% · 1y -4.0%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-21
RTY
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bank deregulation will unlock a two-year lending backlog that starved small businesses, immigration slowdown will tighten labor supply and push unemployment sub-4%, and cyclicals are at a multi-quarter inflection after working through inventory overhangs —…
“I do like small caps I'm wary of the first one to two months of the year”
Post-FOMC Fallout: Did The Fed Get It Right? | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-21
China Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Politburo issued its first loose-policy commitment since 2008, and China will be forced to stimulate in response to any trade war escalation, pointing to sequential growth improvement even without resolving structural issues
“China is going to be a source of growth next year not a negative”
90d +19.1% · 180d +17.4% · 1y +29.0%
Post-FOMC Fallout: Did The Fed Get It Right? | Weekly Roundup
2024-08-01
SHORT FRONT-END RATES
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Markets are pricing ~200bps of cuts through end of 2025 but the US economy is too strong (nominal GDP ~5.9%, unemployment 4%, sticky inflation) to justify anything beyond 2-3 adjustment cuts, so the 2-year and belly are mispriced
“short call spreads they're limited loss but still I mean the mark to Market on them is brutal”
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
Fed cutting cycle and loosening financial conditions should weaken the dollar, though the trade is difficult because every major counterpart currency has its own structural weakness
“I think the dollar overall should be weaker although the hard part with this trade is what do you buy”
90d -1.3% · 180d -6.2% · 1y +0.1%
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
Bond market's dovish pricing creates a floor under equity valuations and equities remain the only asset class with a clean narrative in a loosening-policy, still-growing economy, despite stretched earnings expectations
“I'm long I flipped long and I probably will be long for you know a few weeks”
90d +7.1% · 180d +12.0% · 1y +15.9%
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
Fed loosening policy combined with clearing of crowded carry-trade positions should provide a catalyst for precious metals to bounce
“I think precious Metals probably get another bounce here”
90d +14.1% · 180d +13.0% · 1y +36.9%
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
2024-08-01
Commodities Broad
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Fed moving toward rate cuts should drive renewed interest in commodities as a beneficiary of loosening policy and dollar weakness
“Commodities as a whole are probably going to get another look here especially with them loosening policy”
90d +0.6% · 180d +3.7% · 1y +4.3%
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
At 4% yield with nominal GDP running at 5.9%, the 10-year offers no term premium and is deeply mispriced relative to growth; old rule of thumb says 10-year yield should approach nominal GDP
“I don't know who wants to buy a tenure at 4% I can't believe we're back at 4%”
90d +1.1% · 180d +1.7% · 1y -3.3%
The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan
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