The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Neil Dutta's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Neil Dutta is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2026-09-17
SPX
bearish
Bloomberg The Close · video
The Fed cannot achieve its 2% inflation target without tightening financial conditions, which requires stock prices to fall from currently elevated levels; the Fed will need to kill the AI capex cycle and there is no off-ramp signaled yet from Warsh
“stock prices are too high and they need to come down”
Bloomberg Surveillance 9/17/2026
2026-09-17
USTS
bearish
Bloomberg The Close · video
Market is underpricing the hiking cycle — at minimum October and December hikes are coming, probably more, as financial conditions remain too loose for the Fed's inflation mandate and Warsh has provided no off-ramp on where tightening stops
Bloomberg Surveillance 9/17/2026
Said again: 2026-11-02 (Bloomberg TV (uncut))
2026-06-05
long VRT / long CAT / long CMI / long HUBB (+2 legs)
basket
The Compound · video
Industrial companies whose order books have become AI capex order books (data center power, cooling, components) now exhibit 0.5+ daily-return correlation with SMH, yet GICS sector classification still labels them industrials — the classification gap means…
“these are not tech stocks. They trade like semis because their order books have become AI capex order books”
90d -9.1%
The Recession Signals Are All Wrong | TCAF 245
2026-05-13
XRT
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Real consumer spending running below 2% with nominal income growth negative over 3 months, energy shock squeezing real incomes further, and savings buffers being drawn down — markets have begun pricing weakness but Dutta argues the growth shock is still…
“have the markets priced in a growth shock? I don't know that... we've priced in the inflation shock, we haven't priced in the growth shock”
90d -12.6%
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
2026-05-13
HOUSING
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Total building permits at recent lows, residential investment sluggish, and the energy-driven income squeeze reduces housing affordability and demand — Dutta sees residential construction as structurally challenged not temporarily soft
“pull up a chart of home building stocks. It looks horrible”
90d -11.6%
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
2026-05-13
AI CAPEX / HYPERSCALER CAPEX THEME
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscaler capex growth rate will decelerate next year, and because the CapEx boom supports both equity appreciation and the consumer wealth effect, a slowdown creates a non-linear macro risk far larger than its direct GDP share implies
“if that slows down, then the equity market appreciation that we've seen also probably goes away”
The Fed Is Losing Its Easing Bias While AI Props Up The Economy | Neil Dutta
2025-05-07
HOUSING
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Builders are sitting on the most completed unsold inventory since the financial crisis, home building sentiment is weak, and residential construction activity will decline as housing slows — homebuilders are already underperforming the broad market despite…
“home building stocks, they've been underperforming the market. Home building sentiment is weak”
90d -13.0% · 180d -9.1% · 1y -8.7%
The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta
2025-05-07
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A recession will drive risk-averse investors into US Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, and the 'sell America' narrative is overstated — sell-America days (dollar down, stocks down, yields up simultaneously) have only occurred about three times since…
“I think there's still good value in the long side of the yield curve here”
90d +1.6% · 180d +4.4% · 1y +1.9%
The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta
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