Investors / stance tracking
What Raoul Pal is saying
Co-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM
52 dated public stances tracked since 2016-09-03, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Raoul Pal's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Raoul Pal is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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52
tracked stances
24
themes
0
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns 90d -5.9% (n=36) · 180d -10.5% (n=35) · 1y -5.5% (n=34)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 8 | 8 bullish | 2026-08-20 | |
| Big Tech | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-08-20 | |
| GOLD | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 neutral | 2026-08-20 | |
| Crypto Other | 3 | 3 bullish | 2024-12-03 | |
| USD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2022-05-02 | |
| AMZN | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-27
EMERGING MARKETS TECH-HEAVY (TAIWAN, SOUTH KOREA)
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Tech-centric EM economies like Taiwan and South Korea are displaying a breakout setup that historically leads crypto because both asset classes expand simultaneously during periods of growing global liquidity and a weakening US dollar
“breakout setup in emerging markets, heavily weighted toward technology-centric economies like Taiwan and South Korea, as a leading indicator for crypto”
"FINALLY The Banana Zone Phase 2 Is HERE!" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-08-27
long BITCOIN / long ETH / long SOL
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have simultaneously printed rare monthly DeMark exhaustion signals plus weekly accumulation patterns, signaling the distribution phase has ended and an upward reversal is imminent once the macro liquidity catalyst — dollar…
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have simultaneously printed super rare monthly DeMark exhaustion signals alongside weekly accumulation patterns”
"FINALLY The Banana Zone Phase 2 Is HERE!" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-08-20
Big Tech
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Technology companies represent the compounding output of human intelligence and are now supercharged by AI's double-exponential Reed's Law dynamic, making the secular uptrend since 1982 the single most reliable long in markets
“just buy the Nasdaq. It's the same thing with the crypto. Always buy Bitcoin”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
ORCL
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Larry Ellison is front-running the AI compute buildout aggressively, and his track record of capital allocation across Oracle's entire history argues against fading him; a massive margin expansion business is the likely payoff
“never fade Larry Ellison is one rule in life. The guy knows what he's doing”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
AMZN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Amazon is the clearest live proof-of-concept for the AI productivity miracle — robot-to-human ratio approaching 1:1, drones, self-driving logistics — with margins rising as output per employee surges; it previews where the whole economy goes
“Amazon is an example of the productivity miracle that is likely to happen to the economy”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Raoul Pal · video
Owning long-duration government liabilities is inferior to owning the equity of innovating companies; technology will ultimately be deflationary, and in the interim, currency debasement punishes bond holders while lifting equities
“you might as well back the innovation, which is owning the equity than owning the bond, which is the US government's liability”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
GOLD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Gold earns a modest portfolio allocation as a currency debasement hedge and liquid store of value, particularly as central banks diversify reserves, though it should not be sized as a doomsday bet
“everyone should own a bit of gold. It's the strategy of telling people that this is all going to unravel... that's what costs people a fortune”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
CASH
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Short-term rates offer decent real yield with no duration risk; holding cash in T-bills provides dry powder to deploy into technology and crypto during corrections without sacrificing much return in the interim
“Short-term debt, great. Interest rates are pretty decent right now. Gives you a bit of cash balance”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
BITCOIN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset in a secular uptrend driven by liquidity cycles and adoption; corrections to 2 standard deviations below trend are historically exceptional buying opportunities
“always buy Bitcoin, buy Nasdaq and save up some cash and if there's a big sell-off when it's down 50% you say thank you very much and buy some more”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-13
STABLECOINS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Stablecoin adoption is growing rapidly and the underlying structural demand is strong — driven by agentic AI payments, cross-border settlement, and corporate treasury demand — even as retail crypto activity remains subdued.
“the rise of stablecoins and how fast it's growing... the underlying is really strong”
T. Rowe Price’s Blue Macellari On Crypto’s Future | Raoul Pal The Journey Man
2026-08-13
USTS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Liquid, homogeneous fixed-income and yield products are a natural fit for tokenization — faster settlement, 24/7 access, and better returns than looped DeFi yield farming — making them the correct first wave of tokenized finance rather than illiquid…
“anything with liquidity, anything fixed income related that's relatively liquid, yield product, fantastic”
T. Rowe Price’s Blue Macellari On Crypto’s Future | Raoul Pal The Journey Man
2025-07-10
SPX
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
The S&P 500 only breaks even against the 8% fiat debasement rate, adding no real purchasing-power value; adjusted for global liquidity it performs similarly to every other major equity market
“allocating to the S&P 500, I'm basically breaking even versus debasement”
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
With 97.5% of all asset price action explained by the single debasement factor, EM and international markets offer no incremental alpha and are a distraction from the only two real alpha sources (tech and crypto)
“we never have trade recommendations in emerging markets anymore — it's irrelevant”
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
Big Tech
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Tech stocks are one of only two assets that outperform the 8% annual fiat debasement rate, annualizing ~13% above the real debasement cost while every other equity market (adjusted for debasement) is essentially flat
“once we looked at the world through this lens we realized there's actually only two assets that outperform”
90d +10.2% · 180d +12.5% · 1y +31.2%
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin outperforms debasement by ~150% annualized since 2010, making it the single dominant allocation when the NASDAQ (the other outperformer) is itself down ~99.97% vs Bitcoin over the same period
“if we take the NASDAQ, we divide it by Bitcoin, it's down 99.97%”
90d +6.4% · 180d -19.1% · 1y -44.7%
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
GOLD
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
Gold does its job as a stable currency but only flatlines versus debasement — it produces nominal gains that are entirely eaten by the 8% annual debasement rate, leaving zero real purchasing-power increase
“gold has made you money but it hasn't made you richer”
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Within the only two debasement-outperforming assets, crypto dominates tech: the NASDAQ/Bitcoin ratio has fallen 99.97% since 2012, so the correct concentrated allocation is to rotate from NASDAQ toward Bitcoin
“if we take the NASDAQ, divide it by Bitcoin, it's down 99.97%”
90d -1.9% · 180d -15.8% · 1y -38.0%
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-09
Big Tech
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Tech stocks are one of only two asset classes that outperform the ~8%/year fiat debasement rate driven by global liquidity expansion; NASDAQ annualizes ~13% above debasement, making it one of the only true wealth-compounding instruments
“there's actually only two assets that outperform this — one is tech stocks and the other is crypto”
90d +8.8% · 180d +11.4% · 1y +30.7%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
2025-07-09
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Crypto is the only asset class that meaningfully compounds purchasing power above fiat debasement — the NASDAQ divided by Bitcoin is down 99.97%, implying crypto is the dominant allocation in a debasement-driven world
“you kind of get one asset allocation only, which is crypto”
90d +9.1% · 180d -15.7% · 1y -43.3%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
2025-07-09
SPX
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
The S&P 500 adjusted for global liquidity/fiat debasement produces essentially zero real return; in purchasing-power terms it only maintains value, not compounds it, making it an inferior allocation to NASDAQ or crypto over multi-year horizons
“if I'm to allocate to the S&P 500, I'm basically breaking even versus debasement”
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
2025-07-09
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Concentrated portfolios in crypto over NASDAQ are the dominant allocation because the NASDAQ/Bitcoin ratio has collapsed 99.97% since 2012, and the single dominant macro factor (global liquidity / fiat debasement) systematically favors crypto over equities in…
“diversification destroys returns now because you've got one clear macro factor”
90d +0.1% · 180d -13.5% · 1y -37.0%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
2024-12-27
BITCOIN
bullish
Wealthion · video
Post-halving liquidity cycle and presidential-election-year pattern support a rally to ~$150K by March 2025, a ~30% correction, then a strong year-end finish as regulatory reform unlocks institutional buying; base case $250K, bull case $450K
“Bitcoin easily gets to 100 this year and probably is 150 plus by March before it corrects again”
90d -7.4% · 180d +14.0% · 1y -6.8%
Speak Up’s Best Of 2024: Raoul Pal
2024-12-03
Crypto Other
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Crypto is the architectural layer for the digital age — enabling tokenization of all asset classes (bonds, real estate, equities, derivatives worth quadrillions), providing digital scarcity, and serving as economic rails for AI agents; the market grows from…
“it's a $3 trillion asset it goes to 100 trillion at least within 10 years that's just extrapolating out the trend rate of growth”
The Everything Code: Debt, Demographics, And The Infinite Human Future | Raoul Pal
2024-11-23
BITCOIN
bullish
Wealthion · video
Crypto liquidity cycle and incoming US regulatory changes drive Bitcoin to $100K by year-end, $150K+ by March before a ~30% correction, with a base-case year-end target of $250K after the correction resolves
“Bitcoin easily gets to 100 this year... base case is 250 and in an obscene bull market... could go as high as 450”
90d -1.7% · 180d +14.2% · 1y -11.2%
Market Recap: Crypto | Exponential Age | Recession 2025 | Uranium | Tax Strategies
2024-08-10
Crypto Other
bullish
Wealthion · video
Business cycle is early, inflation declining, rates heading lower, and liquidity increasing — all historically strong tailwinds for crypto — making sell-offs a buying opportunity rather than a structural concern.
“you should be thinking of these sell-offs as a gift”
Weekly Recap: Global Market Shock - What You Need To Know
2024-08-09
SOL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Solana is cheap, fast, and capturing disproportionate innovation and user adoption this cycle, blowing out metrics versus other chains and outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum on price; sees end-of-cycle price target of $800–$2,500 on a current ~$83B fully…
“it's probably north of a thousand…worst case is 800, mid case is 1,200, upper case in a blow-off top would be 2,500”
90d +40.6% · 180d +16.1% · 1y +20.6%
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
2024-08-09
Crypto Other
bullish
Wealthion · video
The crypto asset class sits in the mid-1990s equivalent of the Nasdaq and will grow from $2 trillion today to $100 trillion by 2032–2034 as trust-removal from transactions compounds into the largest wealth accumulation in human history
“this space goes from 2 trillion today to 100 trillion by 2032, 2034”
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
2024-08-09
ETH
bullish
Wealthion · video
Ethereum is the most battle-tested and secure chain and is becoming the default layer for institutional DeFi and bank-to-bank settlement, defending a durable niche even as Solana gains retail market share
90d +12.1% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +64.2%
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
2024-08-09
NFT
bullish
Wealthion · video
NFTs solve digital scarcity and will underpin ticketing, property deeds, derivative contracts, and digital ID; cultural digital artists like XCOPY and Beeple are personally held by Pal as relevant to the era and expected to appreciate significantly
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
2022-05-02
META
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Meta is three standard deviations oversold on its log channel and either the network is genuinely failing (a fat-tail) or the metaverse pivot gets rewarded the same way Amazon's cloud pivot did in 2014, making the risk/reward compelling
“I'm not going to fade Facebook...It's three standard deviations oversold”
90d -24.2% · 180d -55.9% · 1y +13.3%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
SMT
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Scottish Mortgage Trust, run by what Raoul considers the world's best technology investors, is now two standard deviations oversold and represents an exceptional entry into the exponential-age adoption cycle
“Scottish Mortgage Trust...now two standard deviations oversold. These guys are amazing”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
BITCOIN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin is at one standard deviation oversold on its long-run log regression channel — historically the maximum oversold extreme — while the global crypto adoption curve remains the fastest technology adoption in history, with 1 billion users projected by 2024
“at one standard deviation oversold is as big an oversold as Bitcoin ever gets. So, we should be buyers, not sellers”
90d -39.5% · 180d -46.0% · 1y -25.4%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
USD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Japan's yield curve control and sustained money-printing have formed a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in the yen, pointing to dramatic further weakness as Japanese savings shift abroad
“this thing could go to 200. Japanese dollar yen going to 200 is an extraordinary shock to the world”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
ARKK
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
ARK Innovation captures the exponential-age technology adoption curve that inflation cannot derail, and at current levels Raoul is actively averaging in ahead of the Fed pause he expects by summer
“Arc where I've said, 'Let's average in over 8 weeks'”
90d -8.9% · 180d -23.6% · 1y -30.4%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
NS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Reliance is building compounding network effects on top of each other across India's massive and young population, making it a sleeping giant and likely the next trillion-dollar company
“Reliance in India, incredible company, building network on top of network...It's the next trillion-dollar company”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
COPPER
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
The ESG electrification revolution requires copper at massive scale for electricity generation, but chronic underinvestment means supply cannot be ramped fast enough, creating a structural deficit that will persist for at least a decade
“We don't have enough copper. We can't get it out of the ground fast enough...that's real”
90d -17.6% · 180d -21.4% · 1y -8.5%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
AMZN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Amazon is two standard deviations oversold on its long-run log regression channel — a historically rare extreme — while its multi-network adoption model remains fully intact, mirroring the 2014 S-curve correction before the next explosion higher
“Amazon is basically two standard deviations oversold...you should be a buyer, not a seller”
90d +8.7% · 180d -17.7% · 1y -16.8%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
Big Tech
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
The NASDAQ is two standard deviations cheap relative to the Fed balance sheet (the correct denominator for long-duration growth assets), making it a structural buy into any further weakness ahead of an inevitable Fed pause
“the NASDAQ is now cheap...I want to buy stocks into weakness. I want to buy exponential age”
90d -0.8% · 180d -12.2% · 1y +1.2%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
COIN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Coinbase is a crypto network-adoption model that has been massively oversold due to the inflation episode, not any fundamental failure of the underlying adoption curve
“The crypto companies like Coinbase, Galaxy. These are network adoption models and they've been massively oversold”
90d -48.3% · 180d -45.4% · 1y -57.7%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
long TESLA / long META / long ARKK / long SCOTTISH MORTGAGE TRUST (+4 legs)
basket
Raoul Pal · video
The GMI Exponential Age Index — an equally-weighted basket of network-adoption technology names — is near two standard deviations oversold and poised to re-rate sharply higher as inflation peaks, real rates fall, and central bank balance sheets re-expand
“I constructed a basket, which is the GMI exponential age index of a whole bunch of these equally weighted”
90d -27.1% · 180d -41.6% · 1y -24.9%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
long ETH / short BITCOIN
pair
Raoul Pal · video
ETH is forming a running-flag continuation pattern against BTC on the ETH/BTC cross, signalling significant outperformance ahead compounded by the structural demand shift from ETH 2.0 staking
“I prefer ETH than Bitcoin...the ETH Bitcoin cross. It's a running flag, and normally that results with an upside break”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2021-11-23
BITCOIN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin is a dual-feature asset — it hedges currency debasement (like gold) AND carries exponential network-effect upside, making it the only instrument that offsets the ongoing Fed balance-sheet expansion while also generating real wealth for Millennials who…
“Bitcoin has the two features — gold doesn't have the double feature, it's got the one feature”
90d -35.6% · 180d -47.4% · 1y -71.2%
The Ultimate Macro Framework with Raoul Pal (WiM078)
2021-11-23
GOLD
neutral
Raoul Pal · video
Gold performs its single function of preserving wealth against debasement but generates no real upside for wealth creation, making it inadequate for younger cohorts who need to build wealth rather than merely defend it
“Gold hasn't done great, it's done okay, it's done its job — but the Millennials can't generate wealth if gold just defends it”
The Ultimate Macro Framework with Raoul Pal (WiM078)
2021-11-23
Big Tech
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Network-effect digital businesses are the only equity category that has materially outperformed the Fed balance sheet since 2008, because the exponential age concentrates all corporate profits into winner-takes-most platforms that keep destroying traditional…
“The digital age is relentless and destroying everything in its path, so all profits accrued”
90d -14.8% · 180d -26.0% · 1y -26.8%
The Ultimate Macro Framework with Raoul Pal (WiM078)
2020-04-16
USD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
A $13 trillion short dollar position held by foreign corporations becomes unserviceable as global cash flows go negative in the downturn, forcing a solvency-driven dollar squeeze and EM default cycle that the market is underestimating
“my view for a long time has been this cycle breaks not from the weak dollar but from the strong dollar”
90d -4.2% · 180d -6.7% · 1y -9.0%
Global Crisis Meets Macro & The Future of Crypto (w/ Raoul Pal & Dan Morehead)
2020-04-16
BITCOIN
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin's hard-money properties and extraordinary risk/reward versus any other asset make it a once-in-a-generation opportunity as central banks globally debase fiat currencies through unprecedented QE and fiscal expansion
“Bitcoin can go up 50 to 100x over the next five years”
Global Crisis Meets Macro & The Future of Crypto (w/ Raoul Pal & Dan Morehead)
2020-04-16
GOLD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Excessive global monetary supply from central bank QE debases fiat currencies, historically benefiting gold as a hard-money store of value
“gold can go up three to five x”
90d +5.3% · 180d +9.9% · 1y +2.9%
Global Crisis Meets Macro & The Future of Crypto (w/ Raoul Pal & Dan Morehead)
2016-09-03
USD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
A ~$9 trillion global dollar carry trade creates an unprecedented short position; as the dollar rises it triggers a short squeeze, and relative Fed tightening bias versus other central banks sustains the move with historical dollar bull markets running…
“if there is the largest short position the world has ever seen in the biggest asset class the world knows then that is a big deal”
TIP94: Raoul Pal - Macro Economics And Global Risks
2016-09-03
OIL
bearish
Raoul Pal · video
The dollar is the denominator of all commodity prices, so a sustained dollar bull market mechanically drives oil lower regardless of supply-and-demand fundamentals — overlaying inverted DXY against oil shows near-identical charts
“just overlay the chart of oil against the DXY inverted — they're the same chart”
TIP94: Raoul Pal - Macro Economics And Global Risks
2016-09-03
GOLD
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
US real interest rates are already negative when inflation is properly accounted for, making gold (a zero-yield asset) preferable to Treasuries yielding less than inflation, while pent-up institutional demand adds fuel
“gold is essentially a positive carry trade in a negative interest rate world”
TIP94: Raoul Pal - Macro Economics And Global Risks
2016-09-03
long USD / long GOLD
basket
Raoul Pal · video
When the Fed eventually cuts rates, both USD and gold can rally simultaneously — dollar demand is structural (global dollar-denominated debt overhang forces a squeeze) while gold benefits as a positive-carry asset in a negative real-rate world, breaking the…
“potentially the dollar can go up and gold can go up because gold is essentially a positive carry trade in a negative interest rate world”
TIP94: Raoul Pal - Macro Economics And Global Risks
2016-09-03
long DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES / short Em Equities
pair
Raoul Pal · video
A sustained dollar bull market historically causes developed-market equities to outperform emerging-market equities as dollar strength drains liquidity from EM economies and suppresses commodity-export revenues
“it also means that developed markets outperform emerging markets in equities”
TIP94: Raoul Pal - Macro Economics And Global Risks
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