Investors / stance tracking
What Raoul Pal is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder, Real Vision; ex-GLG PM
94 dated public stances tracked since 2015-01-23, most recently 2026-10-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Raoul Pal's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Raoul Pal is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
94
tracked stances
42
themes
4
side flips
2026-10-21
last heard
Returns 90d -1.1% 43% correct · 30 calls · 180d -8.7% 40% correct · 30 calls · 1y -3.0% 41% correct · 29 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | BANKS | bullish | +13.5% | +12.9% | — |
| 2025-07-10 | long BITCOIN / short Big Tech | ratio | -1.9% | -15.8% | -38.0% |
| 2025-07-09 | long BITCOIN / short Big Tech | ratio | +0.1% | -13.5% | -37.0% |
| 2025-07-09 | BITCOIN | bullish | +9.1% | -15.7% | -43.3% |
| 2025-07-09 | Big Tech | bullish | +8.8% | +11.4% | +30.7% |
| 2024-11-23 | ETH | bullish | -25.1% | -24.9% | -15.2% |
| 2024-11-23 | BITCOIN | bullish | -1.7% | +14.2% | -11.2% |
| 2024-11-22 | India Equities | bullish | -7.0% | +0.4% | +0.7% |
| 2024-11-22 | GOLD | bullish | +8.5% | +22.4% | +52.2% |
| 2024-08-09 | SOL | bullish | +40.6% | +16.1% | +20.6% |
| 2024-08-09 | ETH | bullish | +12.1% | +6.6% | +64.1% |
| 2024-01-21 | BITCOIN | bullish | +56.5% | +60.5% | +145.8% |
| 2022-05-02 | long TESLA / long META / long ARKK / long SCOTTISH MORTGAGE TRUST (+4 legs) | basket | -27.1% | -41.6% | -24.9% |
| 2022-05-02 | USD | bullish | +1.7% | +8.4% | +1.3% |
| 2022-05-02 | META | bullish | -24.3% | -55.9% | +13.3% |
| 2022-05-02 | COPPER | bullish | -17.6% | -21.4% | -8.5% |
| 2022-05-02 | COIN | bullish | -48.3% | -45.4% | -57.7% |
| 2022-05-02 | BITCOIN | bullish | -39.5% | -46.0% | -25.4% |
| 2022-05-02 | Big Tech | bullish | -0.8% | -12.2% | +1.2% |
| 2022-05-02 | ARKK | bullish | -8.9% | -23.6% | -30.4% |
| 2022-05-02 | AMZN | bullish | +8.7% | -17.7% | -16.8% |
| 2021-11-23 | BITCOIN | bullish | -35.6% | -47.4% | -71.2% |
| 2021-11-23 | Big Tech | bullish | -14.8% | -26.0% | -26.8% |
| 2021-05-07 | India Equities | bullish | +7.7% | +16.2% | +3.0% |
| 2021-05-07 | COPPER | bullish | -8.8% | -8.6% | -12.7% |
| 2021-01-04 | SPX | bearish | -10.5% | -18.1% | -31.2% |
| 2021-01-04 | GOLD | bullish | -11.2% | -7.8% | -7.0% |
| 2021-01-04 | BITCOIN | bullish | +81.7% | +8.3% | +43.1% |
| 2020-04-16 | USD | bullish | -4.2% | -6.7% | -9.0% |
| 2020-04-16 | GOLD | bullish | +5.3% | +9.9% | +2.9% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-08-20 → bullish2026-09-25
Em Equities — bearish2015-01-23 → bullish2016-06-20
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 8 | 8 bullish | 2026-08-20 | |
| GOLD | 7 | 5 bullish / 2 neutral | 2026-08-20 | |
| ETH | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-10-02 | |
| USD | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-25 | |
| Big Tech | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-08-20 | |
| COPPER | 4 | 2 bullish / 2 bearish | 2022-05-02 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-21
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
pair
Raoul Pal · video
Crypto is two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq on a log-trend basis where Bitcoin has outperformed Nasdaq by ~99.97% over time, making crypto the better relative bet versus technology at this stage of the cycle
“you want to own crypto versus technology...crypto looks the better bet”
"Bitcoin is 40% Behind Fed Liquidity. This Chart MATTERS NOW" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-10-21
ETHEREUM
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
ETH is wildly undervalued because the network underpins ~76% of all stablecoins, the majority of DeFi, most real-world assets, and all L2s — representing $1T+ of value that would be destroyed if ETH were turned off — while AI agents operating on smart…
“it's wildly undervalued versus what is coming”
"Bitcoin is 40% Behind Fed Liquidity. This Chart MATTERS NOW" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-10-21
SMART CONTRACT PLATFORMS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Smart contracts will outperform significantly this cycle because every application layer being built — stablecoins, RWA tokenization, on-chain equities, perps, AI agent payments — runs on smart contract infrastructure, creating massive and accelerating demand
“My thesis has been that smart contracts will outperform significantly this time”
"Bitcoin is 40% Behind Fed Liquidity. This Chart MATTERS NOW" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-10-13
long ETH / long SOL / long SUI / long AVAX (+1 legs)
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Layer-1 blockchains with economic density are the purest way to capture the agent-economy buildout, as machine-to-machine commerce requires fast, trustless settlement rails that will drive compounding usage growth
“How do you capture this new economy? Well, it's just layer ones.”
"Nobody Will Believe my LATEST PREDICTION for Bitcoin & Ethereum" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-10-02
SOL
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Solana is one of two dominant smart-contract layer-1s with massive adoption that will capture increasing usage as AI agents use blockchain infrastructure for instant capital formation and speculation.
“Ethereum and Salana, my guess is they will get more adoption over time as AI uses them”
Raoul Pal Reveals How He’d Build an Investment Portfolio Today
ETH is undervalued relative to the $1-2 trillion in economic activity it underpins — 75% of stablecoins, DeFi, the entire digital art market, RWA and tokenization — at roughly a $300 billion market cap with $200K economic density per active user.
“is ETH undervalued versus what it should be? Yes”
Raoul Pal Reveals How He’d Build an Investment Portfolio Today
Sui's ultra-fast architecture (1,024 tx/block), privacy and quantum layers, zero-cost stablecoins, and higher economic density than Solana position it as the optimal layer-1 for AI agents and institutional finance adoption.
“I put my own capital into that a lot... it's built for agents... perfectly placed for the financial system”
Raoul Pal Reveals How He’d Build an Investment Portfolio Today
2026-10-02
DIGITAL ART / NFTS ON ETHEREUM
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Digital art and NFTs on Ethereum are widely misunderstood and undervalued by the market, creating a hugely asymmetric opportunity for those who grasp the space's potential.
“I think people don't understand that space and that's hugely asymmetric”
Raoul Pal Reveals How He’d Build an Investment Portfolio Today
2026-09-25
long ETH / long SOL / long SUI
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Layer 1 blockchains with economic density will capture the agentic economy's coordination layer for value, identity, and microtransactions — AI agents need fast, cheap blockchains to operate at scale, and economic activity will accrete to the surviving L1s
“I am still in the same layer ones. I have Ethereum, Solana, SUI”
Raoul Pal: AI Just Blew Open Crypto’s BIGGEST Opportunity Ever!
2026-09-25
ZEC
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Zcash is a simple narrative play — private/anonymous Bitcoin analog that could rationally reach 10% of Bitcoin's market cap, with privacy becoming increasingly important in both government-resistant and government-sanctioned forms
“could it be 10% of Bitcoin's market? Yeah, that makes total sense”
Raoul Pal: AI Just Blew Open Crypto’s BIGGEST Opportunity Ever!
Bessent is actively engineering dollar weakness to enable bond sales, has secured swap lines with Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East, and is negotiating with China — DXY is forming a head-and-shoulders top and a breakdown is the primary catalyst for the…
“if you start weakening the dollar, everybody wins”
Raoul Pal: AI Just Blew Open Crypto’s BIGGEST Opportunity Ever!
2026-09-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
CTA short positioning in US bonds is at the largest in history, creating kindling for a sharp reversal; Bessent needs lower rates to roll debt cheaply, CPI falls on oil base effects anyway, and longer-dated call options provide asymmetric upside on a…
“If you do it with some sort of longer-dated call options, you probably can make some real money out of that trade”
Raoul Pal: AI Just Blew Open Crypto’s BIGGEST Opportunity Ever!
2026-09-20
long ETH / long SOL
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Ethereum and Solana are programmable smart-contract infrastructure layers that will accrue value as AI agents require autonomous treasury management, inter-agent payments, and DeFi execution — replacing human UX with a machine-native hidden economy that still…
“It becomes a hidden economy from us — agents transacting with agents, accruing value somehow.”
"You Have Less Than 2 Weeks Before The Entire Bitcoin Bull Run" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-08-27
long BITCOIN / long ETH / long SOL
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have simultaneously printed rare monthly DeMark exhaustion signals plus weekly accumulation patterns, signaling the distribution phase has ended and an upward reversal is imminent once the macro liquidity catalyst — dollar…
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have simultaneously printed super rare monthly DeMark exhaustion signals alongside weekly accumulation patterns”
"FINALLY The Banana Zone Phase 2 Is HERE!" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
2026-08-27
EMERGING MARKETS TECH-HEAVY (TAIWAN, SOUTH KOREA)
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Tech-centric EM economies like Taiwan and South Korea are displaying a breakout setup that historically leads crypto because both asset classes expand simultaneously during periods of growing global liquidity and a weakening US dollar
“breakout setup in emerging markets, heavily weighted toward technology-centric economies like Taiwan and South Korea, as a leading indicator for crypto”
"FINALLY The Banana Zone Phase 2 Is HERE!" - Raoul Pal Bitcoin Interview
Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset in a secular uptrend driven by liquidity cycles and adoption; corrections to 2 standard deviations below trend are historically exceptional buying opportunities
“always buy Bitcoin, buy Nasdaq and save up some cash and if there's a big sell-off when it's down 50% you say thank you very much and buy some more”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
Said again: 2026-09-20 (Raoul Pal), 2026-09-25 (Raoul Pal), 2026-10-20 (Raoul Pal), 2026-10-21 (Raoul Pal)
Amazon is the clearest live proof-of-concept for the AI productivity miracle — robot-to-human ratio approaching 1:1, drones, self-driving logistics — with margins rising as output per employee surges; it previews where the whole economy goes
“Amazon is an example of the productivity miracle that is likely to happen to the economy”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
Big Tech
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Technology companies represent the compounding output of human intelligence and are now supercharged by AI's double-exponential Reed's Law dynamic, making the secular uptrend since 1982 the single most reliable long in markets
“just buy the Nasdaq. It's the same thing with the crypto. Always buy Bitcoin”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
Said again: 2026-09-20 (Raoul Pal), 2026-09-25 (Raoul Pal), 2026-10-02 (Raoul Pal)
Larry Ellison is front-running the AI compute buildout aggressively, and his track record of capital allocation across Oracle's entire history argues against fading him; a massive margin expansion business is the likely payoff
“never fade Larry Ellison is one rule in life. The guy knows what he's doing”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Raoul Pal · video
Owning long-duration government liabilities is inferior to owning the equity of innovating companies; technology will ultimately be deflationary, and in the interim, currency debasement punishes bond holders while lifting equities
“you might as well back the innovation, which is owning the equity than owning the bond, which is the US government's liability”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
Gold earns a modest portfolio allocation as a currency debasement hedge and liquid store of value, particularly as central banks diversify reserves, though it should not be sized as a doomsday bet
“everyone should own a bit of gold. It's the strategy of telling people that this is all going to unravel... that's what costs people a fortune”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
Short-term rates offer decent real yield with no duration risk; holding cash in T-bills provides dry powder to deploy into technology and crypto during corrections without sacrificing much return in the interim
“Short-term debt, great. Interest rates are pretty decent right now. Gives you a bit of cash balance”
Raoul Pal: The Economic Singularity Is Coming by 2030 — Here's How to Position Now
2026-08-13
STABLECOINS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Stablecoin adoption is growing rapidly and the underlying structural demand is strong — driven by agentic AI payments, cross-border settlement, and corporate treasury demand — even as retail crypto activity remains subdued.
“the rise of stablecoins and how fast it's growing... the underlying is really strong”
T. Rowe Price’s Blue Macellari On Crypto’s Future | Raoul Pal The Journey Man
Liquid, homogeneous fixed-income and yield products are a natural fit for tokenization — faster settlement, 24/7 access, and better returns than looped DeFi yield farming — making them the correct first wave of tokenized finance rather than illiquid…
“anything with liquidity, anything fixed income related that's relatively liquid, yield product, fantastic”
T. Rowe Price’s Blue Macellari On Crypto’s Future | Raoul Pal The Journey Man
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Raoul Pal)
2026-03-25
Crypto Other
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
AI agents will transact natively on crypto rails for microtransactions, treasuries, and DeFi — expanding the TAM by orders of magnitude beyond human-user counts and making this the strongest macro narrative for the asset class ever
“The agents are coming and they're coming in gigantic size”
AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
Japan is deliberately re-igniting bank lending via a steeper yield curve and SLR-style reforms after 30 years of dormancy, providing the template for how the global banking system supplies AI-era capital that governments cannot fund alone
“the Japanese banks haven't lent for 30 years, but they're going to start lending again”
90d +13.5% · 180d +12.9%
AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
2026-03-25
DIGITAL ART / NFTS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Digital art captures the cultural record of humanity's greatest technological inflection point, making it analogous to Warhol or cave paintings — a scarce cultural artifact whose value is anchored to internet-era civilization, not speculation
“the digital world is the new world and it will have value”
AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
2026-03-25
SPORTS FRANCHISES / LIVE HUMAN-EXPERIENCE ASSETS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
In an AI-abundance world, scarce human experiences — sports franchises, concerts, live events — become premium assets that structurally outpace currency debasement because machine intelligence cannot substitute for physical human-to-human spectacle
“look at sports teams — just keep going like this in price, outpacing the rate of debasement”
AI Will Drive The Biggest Boom In History | Raoul Pal
2025-07-10
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Within the only two debasement-outperforming assets, crypto dominates tech: the NASDAQ/Bitcoin ratio has fallen 99.97% since 2012, so the correct concentrated allocation is to rotate from NASDAQ toward Bitcoin
“if we take the NASDAQ, divide it by Bitcoin, it's down 99.97%”
90d -1.9% · 180d -15.8% · 1y -38.0%
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-10
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
neutral
Forward Guidance · video
With 97.5% of all asset price action explained by the single debasement factor, EM and international markets offer no incremental alpha and are a distraction from the only two real alpha sources (tech and crypto)
“we never have trade recommendations in emerging markets anymore — it's irrelevant”
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
Gold does its job as a stable currency but only flatlines versus debasement — it produces nominal gains that are entirely eaten by the 8% annual debasement rate, leaving zero real purchasing-power increase
“gold has made you money but it hasn't made you richer”
The 8% Debasement Trap Killing Your Wealth
2025-07-09
long BITCOIN / short Big Tech
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Concentrated portfolios in crypto over NASDAQ are the dominant allocation because the NASDAQ/Bitcoin ratio has collapsed 99.97% since 2012, and the single dominant macro factor (global liquidity / fiat debasement) systematically favors crypto over equities in…
“diversification destroys returns now because you've got one clear macro factor”
90d +0.1% · 180d -13.5% · 1y -37.0%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Crypto is the only asset class that meaningfully compounds purchasing power above fiat debasement — the NASDAQ divided by Bitcoin is down 99.97%, implying crypto is the dominant allocation in a debasement-driven world
“you kind of get one asset allocation only, which is crypto”
90d +9.1% · 180d -15.7% · 1y -43.3%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Said again: 2025-07-10 (Forward Guidance)
2025-07-09
Big Tech
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Tech stocks are one of only two asset classes that outperform the ~8%/year fiat debasement rate driven by global liquidity expansion; NASDAQ annualizes ~13% above debasement, making it one of the only true wealth-compounding instruments
“there's actually only two assets that outperform this — one is tech stocks and the other is crypto”
90d +8.8% · 180d +11.4% · 1y +30.7%
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Said again: 2025-07-10 (Forward Guidance)
The S&P 500 adjusted for global liquidity/fiat debasement produces essentially zero real return; in purchasing-power terms it only maintains value, not compounds it, making it an inferior allocation to NASDAQ or crypto over multi-year horizons
“if I'm to allocate to the S&P 500, I'm basically breaking even versus debasement”
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Said again: 2025-07-10 (Forward Guidance)
2024-12-03
Crypto Other
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Crypto is the architectural layer for the digital age — enabling tokenization of all asset classes (bonds, real estate, equities, derivatives worth quadrillions), providing digital scarcity, and serving as economic rails for AI agents; the market grows from…
“it's a $3 trillion asset it goes to 100 trillion at least within 10 years that's just extrapolating out the trend rate of growth”
The Everything Code: Debt, Demographics, And The Infinite Human Future | Raoul Pal
Crypto liquidity cycle and incoming US regulatory changes drive Bitcoin to $100K by year-end, $150K+ by March before a ~30% correction, with a base-case year-end target of $250K after the correction resolves
“Bitcoin easily gets to 100 this year... base case is 250 and in an obscene bull market... could go as high as 450”
90d -1.7% · 180d +14.2% · 1y -11.2%
Market Recap: Crypto | Exponential Age | Recession 2025 | Uranium | Tax Strategies
Said again: 2024-12-27 (Wealthion)
Ethereum has lagged but catches up as regulatory clarity makes it the institutional blockchain platform of choice — the 'Microsoft' decision every bank will standardize on — outperforming Bitcoin into year-end while underperforming Solana
“ethereum actually does better than most people expect going into the end of the year”
90d -25.1% · 180d -24.9% · 1y -15.2%
Market Recap: Crypto | Exponential Age | Recession 2025 | Uranium | Tax Strategies
Said again: 2024-12-27 (Wealthion)
Structural monetary debasement is locked in because sovereign debt interest must continually be serviced, keeping gold tracking global M2 higher — though crypto captures the same trade at a much higher risk-adjusted return
“gold probably goes higher, I just like gold less than crypto because it's a similar trade”
90d +8.5% · 180d +22.4% · 1y +52.2%
Raoul Pal: How A Tech & Crypto Boom Will Redefine Economic Growth!
2024-11-22
India Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
Golden demographics (median age 28), low household leverage, and infrastructure-driven productivity gains create a structurally superior long-run growth story, with a strong-dollar headwind currently offset by falling oil prices
“I've been bullish India for a decade, it's been the best performing market in the world”
90d -7.0% · 180d +0.4% · 1y +0.7%
Raoul Pal: How A Tech & Crypto Boom Will Redefine Economic Growth!
2024-08-09
Crypto Other
bullish
Wealthion · video
The crypto asset class sits in the mid-1990s equivalent of the Nasdaq and will grow from $2 trillion today to $100 trillion by 2032–2034 as trust-removal from transactions compounds into the largest wealth accumulation in human history
“this space goes from 2 trillion today to 100 trillion by 2032, 2034”
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
Said again: 2024-08-10 (Wealthion)
2024-08-09
SOL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Solana is cheap, fast, and capturing disproportionate innovation and user adoption this cycle, blowing out metrics versus other chains and outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum on price; sees end-of-cycle price target of $800–$2,500 on a current ~$83B fully…
“it's probably north of a thousand…worst case is 800, mid case is 1,200, upper case in a blow-off top would be 2,500”
90d +40.6% · 180d +16.1% · 1y +20.6%
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
Ethereum is the most battle-tested and secure chain and is becoming the default layer for institutional DeFi and bank-to-bank settlement, defending a durable niche even as Solana gains retail market share
90d +12.1% · 180d +6.6% · 1y +64.1%
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
2024-08-09
NFT
bullish
Wealthion · video
NFTs solve digital scarcity and will underpin ticketing, property deeds, derivative contracts, and digital ID; cultural digital artists like XCOPY and Beeple are personally held by Pal as relevant to the era and expected to appreciate significantly
Raoul Pal Explains What to Do with Bitcoin Now!
Bitcoin is the largest macro opportunity ever identified — a structural escape from central bank currency debasement, rising housing costs, and broken retirement systems — with 350,000%+ returns since first covered and a secular adoption curve still in early…
“crypto is the biggest macro opportunity of all time”
90d +56.5% · 180d +60.5% · 1y +145.8%
The Single Most Important Bitcoin Interview of All Time w/ Dan Tapiero
2022-05-02
long TESLA / long META / long ARKK / long SCOTTISH MORTGAGE TRUST (+4 legs)
basket
Raoul Pal · video
The GMI Exponential Age Index — an equally-weighted basket of network-adoption technology names — is near two standard deviations oversold and poised to re-rate sharply higher as inflation peaks, real rates fall, and central bank balance sheets re-expand
“I constructed a basket, which is the GMI exponential age index of a whole bunch of these equally weighted”
90d -27.1% · 180d -41.6% · 1y -24.9%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
long ETH / short BITCOIN
pair
Raoul Pal · video
ETH is forming a running-flag continuation pattern against BTC on the ETH/BTC cross, signalling significant outperformance ahead compounded by the structural demand shift from ETH 2.0 staking
“I prefer ETH than Bitcoin...the ETH Bitcoin cross. It's a running flag, and normally that results with an upside break”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
Meta is three standard deviations oversold on its log channel and either the network is genuinely failing (a fat-tail) or the metaverse pivot gets rewarded the same way Amazon's cloud pivot did in 2014, making the risk/reward compelling
“I'm not going to fade Facebook...It's three standard deviations oversold”
90d -24.3% · 180d -55.9% · 1y +13.3%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
SMT
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Scottish Mortgage Trust, run by what Raoul considers the world's best technology investors, is now two standard deviations oversold and represents an exceptional entry into the exponential-age adoption cycle
“Scottish Mortgage Trust...now two standard deviations oversold. These guys are amazing”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
Bitcoin is at one standard deviation oversold on its long-run log regression channel — historically the maximum oversold extreme — while the global crypto adoption curve remains the fastest technology adoption in history, with 1 billion users projected by 2024
“at one standard deviation oversold is as big an oversold as Bitcoin ever gets. So, we should be buyers, not sellers”
90d -39.5% · 180d -46.0% · 1y -25.4%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
Japan's yield curve control and sustained money-printing have formed a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in the yen, pointing to dramatic further weakness as Japanese savings shift abroad
“this thing could go to 200. Japanese dollar yen going to 200 is an extraordinary shock to the world”
90d +1.7% · 180d +8.4% · 1y +1.3%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
ARK Innovation captures the exponential-age technology adoption curve that inflation cannot derail, and at current levels Raoul is actively averaging in ahead of the Fed pause he expects by summer
“Arc where I've said, 'Let's average in over 8 weeks'”
90d -8.9% · 180d -23.6% · 1y -30.4%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
NS
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
Reliance is building compounding network effects on top of each other across India's massive and young population, making it a sleeping giant and likely the next trillion-dollar company
“Reliance in India, incredible company, building network on top of network...It's the next trillion-dollar company”
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
The ESG electrification revolution requires copper at massive scale for electricity generation, but chronic underinvestment means supply cannot be ramped fast enough, creating a structural deficit that will persist for at least a decade
“We don't have enough copper. We can't get it out of the ground fast enough...that's real”
90d -17.6% · 180d -21.4% · 1y -8.5%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
Amazon is two standard deviations oversold on its long-run log regression channel — a historically rare extreme — while its multi-network adoption model remains fully intact, mirroring the 2014 S-curve correction before the next explosion higher
“Amazon is basically two standard deviations oversold...you should be a buyer, not a seller”
90d +8.7% · 180d -17.7% · 1y -16.8%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2022-05-02
Big Tech
bullish
Raoul Pal · video
The NASDAQ is two standard deviations cheap relative to the Fed balance sheet (the correct denominator for long-duration growth assets), making it a structural buy into any further weakness ahead of an inevitable Fed pause
“the NASDAQ is now cheap...I want to buy stocks into weakness. I want to buy exponential age”
90d -0.8% · 180d -12.2% · 1y +1.2%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
Coinbase is a crypto network-adoption model that has been massively oversold due to the inflation episode, not any fundamental failure of the underlying adoption curve
“The crypto companies like Coinbase, Galaxy. These are network adoption models and they've been massively oversold”
90d -48.3% · 180d -45.4% · 1y -57.7%
Raoul Pal: Macro Masterclass
2021-12-06
long SAND / long MANA
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Metaverse is the digitization of life and value — Decentraland and Sandbox represent early infrastructure bets on digital worlds where blockchain enables real ownership and economic activity, a theme Raoul placed six months before the interview and watched…
“i put metaverse bets on six months ago those things exploded decentraland and sandbox”
Raoul Pal Interview - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto Regulations, Metaverse, NFTs, Macro Investing
2021-12-06
long CHZ / long RLY
basket
Raoul Pal · video
Social tokens represent a macro-thematic bet on the future tokenization of community and creator economies, where CHZ and RLY are early infrastructure plays on digital fan and social engagement networks
“i have some social token bets with chili's and rally... more macro-thematic bets of what i think future things are”
Raoul Pal Interview - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto Regulations, Metaverse, NFTs, Macro Investing
ETH is the actual medium of exchange in Web 3.0 — NFTs are priced in ETH, DeFi is denominated in ETH, and the metaverse transacts in ETH, making it functionally money regardless of Bitcoin's store-of-value narrative
“the medium of exchange in web 3.0 is eth... eth is money right now”
Raoul Pal Interview - Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Crypto Regulations, Metaverse, NFTs, Macro Investing
Showing the 60 most recent of 94 tracked stances.
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