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Investors / stance tracking

What Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) is saying

Partner, Cerity Partners

45 dated public stances tracked since 2019-08-07, most recently 2026-08-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jim Lebenthal (Cerity)'s public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jim Lebenthal (Cerity) is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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45
tracked stances
22
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-11
last heard
Returns  90d +9.2% (n=36) · 180d +12.9% (n=32) · 1y +21.1% (n=24)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

AAPL — bullish2026-06-25 → bearish2026-08-11

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
C44 bullish2026-03-18
DAL44 bullish2026-07-08
ENERGY44 bullish2026-07-08
AAPL31 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-11
DEFENSE33 bullish2025-11-18
BANKS22 bullish2025-02-28

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-11 MU bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
The AI-driven semiconductor demand cycle will be elongated by years; Micron trades at only 6x forward earnings with earnings growing rapidly, and the upcoming Chips Act anniversary removes restrictions on share buybacks — hyperscaler reports confirm sustained…
“if the cycle is going to be elongated by years, buying this stock at six times earnings with earnings growing through the roof is a great setup”
APPLE STOCK DOWNGRADED! (08/10) CNBC HALFTIME CLIPS + Technical Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-08-11 AAPL bearish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Agrees with Jefferies underperform thesis — margin pressure from soaring memory costs, years of undelivered Apple Intelligence promises, and a stretched 33x PE make the stock vulnerable; trimmed half the position at $330 and would rebuy only near $270
“it's more like kind of death by a dozen cuts — margin pressure, the upgrades are kind of meh”
APPLE STOCK DOWNGRADED! (08/10) CNBC HALFTIME CLIPS + Technical Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-08-11 RIG bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Transocean is his top energy pick given ongoing geopolitical tension supporting energy sector strength
“My favorite energy stock that Joe doesn't own but may is Transocean”
APPLE STOCK DOWNGRADED! (08/10) CNBC HALFTIME CLIPS + Technical Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-07-27 EBAY owns CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
eBay's core fundamentals are intact and the whipsaw from GameStop offer speculation represents noise rather than a fundamental deterioration, with a potential acquisition being additive
“I bought it before the GameStop offer because I think the fundamentals are intact”
CNBC halftime report 27th July 207 featuring Nvidia Apple Micron
2026-07-27 long ENERGY / long LNG / long ENERGY basket CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Strategic petroleum reserves globally need to be refilled from historic lows, providing a structural floor under long-term oil prices regardless of short-term geopolitical swings, making diversified energy exposure a multi-year outperformer
“over the long run they are supported”
CNBC halftime report 27th July 207 featuring Nvidia Apple Micron
2026-07-08 DAL bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
After a 10% drop in one week DAL is no longer extended and now trades at 10x next year's earnings while balance sheet debt is declining as free cash flow runs $3-4B annually
“trading at 10 times next year's earnings which I think is reasonable”
Software and cloud computing names have strong growth scenarios, says ETF Action's Mike Akins
2026-07-08 ENERGY bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Exxon has a stellar long-term track record and should be held as a multi-year compounder independent of near-term crude oil price moves
“I don't think it's dependent on crude oil. I think this is a long-term hold”
Software and cloud computing names have strong growth scenarios, says ETF Action's Mike Akins
2026-07-08 VRTX bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Vertex's acquisition announced the prior day diversifies its product line beyond the core franchise, expanding the long-term growth profile
“Vertex Pharmaceuticals exciting acquisition yesterday diversifies their product line”
Software and cloud computing names have strong growth scenarios, says ETF Action's Mike Akins
2026-07-08 long SLB / long DVN / long Big Tech / long HAL basket CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
A pullback across energy services and E&P names creates a buying opportunity as long as oil holds above $70, with SLB, DVN, FANG, and HAL all offering value at current levels
“collectively you've had a nice pullback in energy. You have opportunity in Diamondback, in Devon, in Slumber and Hallebert”
Software and cloud computing names have strong growth scenarios, says ETF Action's Mike Akins
2026-06-29 ENERGY bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Energy is temporarily cold as crude falls but offers patient upside through dividends, share buybacks, and attractive valuations while waiting for the cycle to turn
“you can patiently wait, both because of the dividends and the share buybacks and attractive valuations”
'Halftime' traders debate the market setup for the next half of 2026
2026-06-25 ORCL owns Tom Lee · video
Oracle will benefit from the same hyperscaler AI CapEx tailwind that is driving Micron — as all the compute hyperscalers say their AI infrastructure is profitable, Oracle as a data and cloud infrastructure provider captures that monetization; risks are…
“I am taking a risk in Oracle. I'm a believer that all of the things that are propelling Micron are also going to be to Oracle's benefit”
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-06-25 AAPL bullish Tom Lee · video
Apple has pulled back to its April year-to-date low and the rising 200-day moving average (~$269), a support level that has held; Apple has more pricing power than any company and the near-term DRAM cost headwind is visible and finite — a long-term investor…
“If I'm an investor, I think it's a great opportunity. Apple has more pricing power than any other company I can think of”
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-06-25 MU bullish Tom Lee · video
At worst in mid-innings of the cycle; earnings estimates will rise sharply on the guidance given, making the stock trade at approximately 7x forward earnings — a value entry — plus massive share buybacks ahead distinguishing it from hyperscaler capex spenders
“in a week we're going to be looking at this price for Micron and saying this is seven times forward earnings”
CNBC HOST GRILLS TOM LEE (06/25) Stock Market Analysis by Blue Cloud Trading
2026-03-23 EBAY bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
eBay is a cheap way to play discretionary recovery as oil falls, with exposure to both luxury resale and value second-hand goods, plus an underdiscussed collectibles growth channel, trading at low-teens forward P/E with good FCF and aggressive buybacks.
“Company trades very cheaply, low teens on a forward multiple of earnings, very little debt, good free cash flow”
90d +17.1%
Stocks surge on reported Iran talks: How to trade it
2026-03-18 DIS bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Disney's revenues and EPS are growing above 10% annually, forward P/E sits at 14, and the dividend is growing rapidly, making it a value opportunity despite uncomfortable near-term sentiment around linear TV decline
“if you are patient and you wait, you are going to be rewarded”
90d +1.9%
POWELL PAUSES! Stock Market Drops Today + CNBC Halftime Report Stock Picks!
2026-03-18 C bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Citigroup and financials broadly had strong 2025 performance and the current consolidation is a pause driven by overstated private credit concerns, not a systemic credit problem, setting up the next leg higher
“this is the pause that sets up for the next leg higher”
90d +32.2%
POWELL PAUSES! Stock Market Drops Today + CNBC Halftime Report Stock Picks!
2026-02-24 WYNN bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Wynn is operationally fine but pulled back from ~130 to ~110 after getting slightly overextended — the decline is a valuation reset, not a fundamental deterioration
“it has pulled back from around 130 to 110. I think it just got a little too far ahead of its skis”
90d -10.3% · 180d -8.7%
Here's the Committee's discretionary playbook
2026-02-24 DAL bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Packed planes and airports signal persistent consumer travel demand; oil-price concerns and soft sentiment are noise against structural tailwinds of low unemployment and wage gains
“Have the planes been empty? No, they've been packed. Airports have been packed.”
90d +15.3% · 180d +20.1%
Here's the Committee's discretionary playbook
2026-01-23 RIG bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Transocean trades at an extreme valuation discount with ~$700M free cash flow projected this year against only a ~$5B market cap
“700 billion of free cash flow projected this year against a 5 billion market cap”
90d +25.5% · 180d +9.7%
Final Trades: Capital One, Medtronic, Transocean and Caterpillar
2026-01-22 VRTX bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Stock has broken out and rallied ~30% over recent months, with momentum expected to continue
“A nice little chart here over the last few months up about 30%. I think it continues.”
90d -6.4% · 180d +3.1%
Final Trades: Vertex Pharma, Kimberly-Clark, S&P Global and Exxon Mobil
2025-12-29 ENERGY bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Exxon is set to reach an all-time high driven by China stimulus, a resilient US economy, and oil prices that are asymmetrically cheap with upside catalysts from potential shale productivity losses
“going to hit not just a new 52-week high, but an all-time high here”
90d +39.8% · 180d +21.7%
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova sells Phillips 66, Spotify and the GLD
2025-12-29 LNG bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Cheniere Energy benefits from growing global demand for US LNG exports as the macro tailwinds of China stimulus and oil price asymmetry favor the energy complex
“Cheniere exporting liqufied natural gas across the world”
90d +52.9% · 180d +27.3%
Trade Tracker: Joe Terranova sells Phillips 66, Spotify and the GLD
2025-11-18 DEFENSE bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Lockheed Martin is a buy on the strength of the F-35 program, which represents best-in-class air superiority
“I submit as evidence Lockheed Martin on the basis of the F-35 is simply the best jet in the air right now”
90d +17.5% · 180d +8.7%
Final Trades: Netflix, Nvidia, Lockheed Martin and Freeport-McMoRan
2025-09-05 C bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Citigroup's relative merits (discussed previously) make the 1.5% intraday pullback a buying opportunity
“When life gives you lemons, make Citigroup.”
90d +13.7% · 180d +18.0% · 1y +46.4%
Final Trades: Uber, Home Depot, Rocket Companies, Citigroup
2025-07-14 ORCL owns CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Trimmed Oracle after 30%+ YTD gain to raise dry powder for buying stocks that sell off on good earnings reports during earnings season, while still remaining largely invested
“Oracle was last week...I'm taking some money off of the table in my winners”
The 'Halftime' Report Investment Committee debate their expectations for q2 earnings season
2025-06-16 AAPL neutral CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Apple lacks a convincing near-term AI catalyst to justify adding exposure when better-positioned alternatives like Microsoft exist within the same sector
“is there any reason for me to add to it right now? I just can't come up with a convincing reason”
The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debates the path ahead for stocks
2025-06-16 GOOGL bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Alphabet is a value-tech stock that has been underappreciated and is starting to work as investors rotate into cheaper earnings-growth names within tech
“Alphabet which we've been talking about a lot in the past few weeks as a value tech stock”
90d +42.5% · 180d +74.6% · 1y +111.8%
The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debates the path ahead for stocks
2025-06-16 CSCO bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Cisco is a value-tech name with real earnings growth that is working without requiring investors to pay up for expensive multiples
“you can look at a Cisco systems”
90d +2.9% · 180d +20.9% · 1y +86.7%
The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debates the path ahead for stocks
2025-06-16 MSFT bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Microsoft's breakout to record highs is AI-driven and represents a genuine earnings-growth story, not just multiple expansion
“It's been remarkable the breakout that we have seen in Microsoft and I think it's AI related”
90d +7.7% · 180d -0.6% · 1y -17.1%
The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debates the path ahead for stocks
2025-06-16 QCOM bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Qualcomm is a value-tech name with earnings growth that is performing well without the valuation risk of high-multiple peers
“you can look at a Qualcomm”
90d +3.4% · 180d +15.5% · 1y +39.3%
The 'Halftime' Investment Committee debates the path ahead for stocks
2025-02-28 C bullish The Compound · video
Jane Fraser's turnaround has shrunk the share count ~40%, buybacks are occurring below tangible book value, and the pending Banamex IPO is a remaining catalyst, all of which should drive continued multiple expansion
“they've shrunk their share count by about 40%... buying these shares back below tangible book value”
90d -4.8% · 180d +22.9% · 1y +43.0%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2025-02-28 ABBV bullish The Compound · video
AbbVie successfully replaced Humira revenue with Skyrizi and Rinvoq, continues to receive new indications for those drugs, and trades at only ~16x earnings with a 3.2% dividend yield, demonstrating management quality that the market undervalues
“they've completely replaced Humira... they've completely replaced the revenue”
90d -10.4% · 180d +1.3% · 1y +15.8%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2025-02-28 BANKS bullish The Compound · video
JP Morgan is the best-in-class bank and must be owned before any second-tier financials like Citigroup, as owning the category leader minimizes risk while capturing sector upside
“if you're going to be in any industry you have to own the best company in the industry”
90d -5.9% · 180d +8.4% · 1y +10.9%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2025-02-28 NVDA bullish The Compound · video
PEG ratio of ~0.7 with ~50% EPS growth makes Nvidia cheap relative to its growth rate despite the post-earnings selloff, as the selloff reflects lack of upside shock rather than fundamental deterioration
“if you've got a PEG ratio below one for a company of this quality it's phenomenal”
90d +11.4% · 180d +45.4% · 1y +46.1%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2025-02-28 DAL bullish The Compound · video
Delta enjoys a Goldilocks setup of low fuel prices, resilient travel demand, and settled union contracts, while active balance sheet deleveraging should drive a multiple re-rating from ~7-8x toward 10x earnings, implying a price target of $75-85 by year-end
“75 $85 a share unless you get a recession... that's where you're going to see the stock by the end of the year”
90d -19.1% · 180d +2.6% · 1y +8.2%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2025-02-28 CSCO bullish The Compound · video
Cisco's multiple should re-rate from ~16.5x toward the market multiple of ~21-22x as its Splunk-boosted security business and AI-adjacent hardware/software mix attract a higher valuation, analogous to Oracle's AI-driven re-rating two years ago
“this stock is now making highs not seen since the year 2001 and nobody's talking about it”
90d -1.0% · 180d +8.1% · 1y +26.9%
Staying Bullish on Stocks Through Economic Pain | TCAF 180
2024-03-01 C bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Citigroup is a conviction long as part of a multi-week bullish thesis on large-cap financials, explicitly excluding regional banks
“City group is one of them”
90d +12.4% · 180d +12.8% · 1y +43.6%
Final Trades: Citigroup, Google and COWZ
2023-03-07 DAL bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Strong revenue growth and locked-in labor/fuel costs create upside surprise potential while the economic cycle remains underappreciated and recession looks further away
“relative to where we are in the cycle they're undervalued”
90d -5.0% · 180d +7.1% · 1y +8.4%
The CNBC ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weighs in on recent market calls
2023-03-07 ALK bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Same thesis as Delta — stable cost structure (labor contracts reset, fuel stable) plus strong demand visible in TSA throughput data while the cycle itself is underappreciated
90d -4.6% · 180d -16.8% · 1y -23.8%
The CNBC ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weighs in on recent market calls
2022-08-03 MSFT bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Mega-cap tech is not defensive — future price gains are capped to 8–10% EPS growth with no multiple expansion at current valuations, unlike the prior low-rate cycle
“tech is not defensive … any share price gains is going to come from earnings per share growth and that's going to be eight to ten percent”
The ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee debates the tech trade
2022-08-03 BANKS bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
JPMorgan trades at ~9x earnings with a 3.5% dividend yield — a fraction of mega-cap tech multiples — making it the flagship cheap cyclical in a rising-rate, no-longer-free-money regime
“jp morgan … nine times earnings three and a half percent dividend yield”
90d +0.6% · 180d -0.8% · 1y -11.4%
The ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee debates the tech trade
2022-08-03 ENERGY bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Infrastructure and supply-chain spending will drive above-average EPS growth AND multiple expansion in cyclical sectors at a time when money is no longer free, making them the true defensives vs over-valued mega-cap tech
“i actually think that you're going to see profit growth above average outside of tech in the cyclicals”
90d +23.4% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +21.4%
The ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee debates the tech trade
2022-07-21 CPT bullish CNBC Halftime Committee · video
Camden Property Trust is a Sun Belt apartment REIT directly benefiting from ongoing domestic migration into exactly those markets where it operates
“nice apartment reit that's growing in the sun belt of the u.s which is exactly where people are migrating to”
90d -15.6% · 180d -11.1% · 1y -13.1%
The ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee weighs in on investing in REITs
2021-10-19 DEFENSE bullish CNBC Halftime Final Trades · video
Defense and aerospace have a strong bid within industrials because no US budget cuts are coming and China's geopolitical posturing is driving defense spending; Raytheon just hit a new 52-week high
“no budget cuts coming and china is saber-rattling good time for defense stocks”
90d -1.2% · 180d +3.5% · 1y -6.8%
Final Trades: Uber, Tilray, Halliburton & Raytheon
2019-08-07 DEFENSE bullish Delivering Alpha · video
Northrop Grumman has good momentum as a beneficiary of defense spending in satellites, communications, and drones
“it's in satellites communication drones”
90d +5.7% · 180d +7.8% · 1y -21.2%
CNBC's Delivering Alpha returns this September

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