Investors / stance tracking
What Joel Greenblatt is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-CIO, Gotham Asset Management
32 dated public stances tracked since 2017-04-04, most recently 2026-08-29. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Joel Greenblatt's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Joel Greenblatt is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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32
tracked stances
25
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-29
last heard
Returns 90d +5.2% 57% correct · 14 calls · 180d +7.2% 64% correct · 14 calls · 1y +7.2% 64% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-29 | AAPL | bearish | -1.5% | -27.6% | -28.5% |
| 2023-07-14 | WMT | bullish | +3.1% | +5.0% | +36.9% |
| 2023-07-14 | MNST | bearish | +17.1% | -2.8% | +13.0% |
| 2023-07-14 | HD | bullish | -6.8% | +14.2% | +16.2% |
| 2023-07-14 | F | bearish | +19.0% | +18.9% | -1.3% |
| 2023-07-14 | BA | bullish | -10.2% | +6.9% | -16.0% |
| 2023-07-14 | ALGN | bearish | +27.0% | +24.6% | +34.5% |
| 2023-05-18 | SPX | bullish | +5.3% | +7.8% | +28.1% |
| 2022-03-29 | long GOOGL / long AMZN / long MSFT | basket | -22.6% | -29.2% | -26.6% |
| 2021-05-18 | long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT / long AAPL | basket | +16.8% | +25.1% | -3.9% |
| 2021-03-08 | long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT / long META | basket | +17.9% | +36.2% | +3.9% |
| 2021-03-08 | USTS | bearish | -0.8% | -2.7% | +1.0% |
| 2021-03-08 | Small Caps | bearish | -5.5% | -3.8% | +10.1% |
| 2021-01-08 | long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT | basket | +14.8% | +28.3% | +33.3% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-04-29 | |
| ALGN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-07-14 | |
| AXP | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-08-07 | |
| BA | 1 | 1 bullish | 2023-07-14 | |
| Big Tech | 1 | 1 bearish | 2018-10-29 | |
| CASH | 1 | 1 bullish | 2018-10-29 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-29
RUSSELL 2000 MOST-EXPENSIVE NAMES
short
Joel Greenblatt · video
The Russell 2000 sits at the 4th valuation percentile over 28 years (cheaper 96% of the time), and at this extreme, historical one-year forward returns have averaged negative 2-4%; shorting the most overvalued names within the index maximizes the opportunity.
“we're shorting the most expensive stocks in a very expensive index”
Star Investor Joel Greenblatt Beats the Market Without Going Out on a Limb
After a long multi-year period of underperformance, low-price-book/price-sales value stocks in the Vanguard Value ETF represent a relative bargain versus the broader S&P 500 today.
“I think investors are getting a relative bargain to the S&P today, and it's had a long period of underperformance”
Star Investor Joel Greenblatt Beats the Market Without Going Out on a Limb
Pre-spin-off of American Express Financial Advisors (AEFA) allows buying the high-quality travel/credit card business (28-30% ROE target, 12-15% growth guidance) at roughly $46/share implied cost after assigning a conservative $9 stub value to AEFA, with…
“I may be able to play right now. I may be able to buy this thing right now at $55”
Joel Greenblatt - The best class of all time for traders
Ranking stocks by cheapness (low P/E) and quality (high return on capital) and buying the best combined-ranked names produced 13.9% annually vs. ~7.8% for the S&P 500/Russell 1000 from 1990–2010, beating all other indexing approaches.
“value weighted indexes beat them all”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2025-04-29
FUNDAMENTALLY-WEIGHTED / EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX FUNDS
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Market-cap-weighted indexes systematically buy more of overpriced stocks and less of underpriced ones, so equal- or fundamentally-weighted indexes correct this flaw and have historically outperformed by 2.7–4.5% per year.
“it actually is systematically doing the wrong thing at every point”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
At a ~3% earnings yield and needing ~10 more years of 7–8% growth to reach a 6% yield threshold, Apple fails Greenblatt's opportunity-cost valuation test at current prices above P/E 20.
“at current valuations I'd say that Apple doesn't pass the first test”
90d -1.5% · 180d -27.6% · 1y -28.5%
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2025-04-29
SMALL-CAP STOCKS (MARKET CAP BELOW $1 BILLION)
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Small-cap stocks offer a structural advantage because large allocators like Buffett cannot deploy meaningful capital there, reducing competition and leaving more mispricing opportunities for small investors.
“Any company with a market cap lower than 1 billion seems to fall within that category”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
Home Depot is a duopoly (only Lowe's competes), earns above-average returns on capital, and trades at a below-market valuation — a better-than-average business at a below-average price
“really hard to get a better setup or business than this”
90d -6.8% · 180d +14.2% · 1y +16.2%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
Boeing is a duopoly (only Airbus competes) with high returns on capital for a capital-intensive business, operating in a structurally growing air-travel market, and trades below market valuations
“above average business at below average prices that's that's pretty exciting”
90d -10.2% · 180d +6.9% · 1y -16.0%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
Walmart's unmatched economies of scale give it superior buying power and customer loyalty, making it a great business available at a below-market valuation
“above average business at a below average price”
90d +3.1% · 180d +5.0% · 1y +36.9%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
Align Technology faces imminent patent expiration opening the door to competition from startups, yet trades at a very expensive valuation that already prices in sustained dominance it is unlikely to maintain
“coming off patents soon competition is coming in paying a very high price”
90d +27.0% · 180d +24.6% · 1y +34.5%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
Monster Beverage trades at a high valuation while its key distribution partner Coca-Cola is moving into the energy drink category, introducing direct competition from within its own supply chain
“very expensive and competition is coming”
90d +17.1% · 180d -2.8% · 1y +13.0%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
Ford's low P/E is misleading because it generates no free cash flow and faces heavy capex requirements ahead; valued on cash flows it is actually expensive in a tough, commoditized auto business
“looks like a low PE stock but they don't generate any cash”
90d +19.0% · 180d +18.9% · 1y -1.3%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-05-18
CHEAPEST 20% OF LARGE-CAP US STOCKS (VALUE FACTOR)
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The cheapest 20% of the top 1400 US stocks by Gotham's cash-flow-based metric is at the 93rd percentile of cheapness over 30 years, historically returning ~63% over the subsequent two years from similar levels, creating a compelling opportunity versus the S&P…
“we're in the 93rd percentile for that portfolio towards cheap over the last 30 years”
HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt
The S&P 500 is at the 23rd percentile toward expensive by Gotham's metrics, implying sub-normal but still positive expected returns of ~14-15% over two years, making it less attractive than deep value but not outright bearish
“subnormal but not negative... closer to 14 or 15 percent over the next two years”
90d +5.3% · 180d +7.8% · 1y +28.1%
HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt
2022-03-29
long GOOGL / long AMZN / long MSFT
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
Google, Amazon, and Microsoft have unprecedented franchises with internet-scale network effects and barriers to entry Greenblatt has never seen in his career, and he still does not consider them fully priced relative to their earnings power
“I've never seen businesses this good before in my life”
90d -22.6% · 180d -29.2% · 1y -26.6%
Secrets of Investment Success w/ Joel Greenblatt (RWH003)
2022-03-29
long CHEAP-AND-GOOD VALUE STOCKS (VALUE 1000 BASKET) / short SPX
pair
Joel Greenblatt · video
A cheap-and-good (Value 1000-style) stock portfolio looks priced to return 30–40% over the next two years while the S&P 500 looks priced for only mid-single-digit returns, based on thirty years of valuation history — making deep value a strong relative bet…
“that value portfolio…says it's going to earn 30 to 35 to 40% over the next couple of years”
Secrets of Investment Success w/ Joel Greenblatt (RWH003)
2021-05-18
long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT / long AAPL
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Apple represent some of the greatest businesses ever created with unprecedented franchise quality and effectively unlimited growth trajectories, and unlike the dot-com bubble are currently at reasonable rather than wildly…
“those are some of the greatest businesses that man has ever created...they're actually perhaps reasonably valued and perhaps good investments”
90d +16.8% · 180d +25.1% · 1y -3.9%
What makes a GREAT INVESTOR? | Episode 111 Joel Greenblatt
2021-05-18
SPACS AND LOSS-MAKING COMPANIES (>$1B MARKET CAP)
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The cohort of 299+ unprofitable companies trading above $1B market cap are collectively priced as if they will all become the next Amazon or Google, which is statistically implausible — the speculation will end badly for most of them
“everyone is assuming that these guys are going to be the next amazon google microsoft...seems unlikely that all of them or even a big percentage of them will”
What makes a GREAT INVESTOR? | Episode 111 Joel Greenblatt
2021-03-11
LARGE-CAP VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
Value Investing with Legends · video
Value portfolios today offer a historically extreme 95% cash flow premium to the S&P 500 — well above the typical 50–60% range — creating risk-adjusted returns comfortably above even a conservative 6% risk-free rate assumption
“today we're off the charts we can create the same portfolio with a 95 cash flow premium to the s p”
Value Investing Masterclass: Joel Greenblatt and Rich Pzena on Active Management in 2021
2021-03-08
long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT / long META
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
These mega-cap tech franchises are historically unprecedented in quality and still justify their valuations even if not as cheap as before, warranting large positions
“these are great businesses i don't think we've seen the likes of them before just the type of franchises”
90d +17.9% · 180d +36.2% · 1y +3.9%
Joel Greenblatt’s Investing Philosophy
2021-03-08
Small Caps
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Over 300 profitable-market-cap money-losing companies returned 100%+ in 2020 as if all will become the next Amazon/Google, but historically buying stocks at 200-300x or losing money is the world's worst investment strategy and only a handful will deserve…
“i'm expecting i would just say that might be a good time for the magic formula again”
90d -5.5% · 180d -3.8% · 1y +10.1%
Joel Greenblatt’s Investing Philosophy
Junk bonds yielding 4% for the first time do not adequately compensate for default risk and bad outcomes over the life of the bonds, making them unattractive even relative to artificially suppressed risk-free rates
“junk bonds that just went under yesterday four percent for the first time on average aren't really working in risk of default very much”
90d -0.8% · 180d -2.7% · 1y +1.0%
Joel Greenblatt’s Investing Philosophy
2021-03-08
VALUE STOCKS — HIGH RETURN ON CAPITAL PLUS HIGH EARNINGS YIELD (MAGIC FORMULA)
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The good-and-cheap strategy has underperformed since ~2016 similar to 1998-99, and froth in money-losing small caps signals the kind of environment that preceded value's biggest historical reversal in 2000-2002
“that might be a good time for the magic formula again”
Joel Greenblatt’s Investing Philosophy
2021-01-08
long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are among the best businesses ever created and remain attractive holdings despite broader market froth
“the Amazon, Google's, and Microsoft's don't bother me. We own a bunch of those. I think those are some of the best businesses we've ever seen”
90d +14.8% · 180d +28.3% · 1y +33.3%
Joel Greenblatt on market factors, improving education, reducing income inequality & more | E1159
2021-01-08
UNPROFITABLE COMPANIES WITH MARKET CAP OVER $1B
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The ~261 money-losing companies with market caps over $1B were up a median 50% and average over 100% in 2020, representing speculative froth disconnected from fundamentals
“that's a little frothy, I would say”
Joel Greenblatt on market factors, improving education, reducing income inequality & more | E1159
Stocks with 7-9% free cash flow yields and high returns on capital are attractively priced in a 3% rate environment and avoid the value traps of traditional low-price-book investing by anchoring to actual cash generation
“companies that are gushing free cash flow huge returns on capital meaning they deploy their capital well that avoids some of the value traps”
Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks
Small-cap universe is at the 6th percentile of cheapness (cheaper 94% of the time historically), implying near-zero forward returns and a valuation that 'should come back over time'
“the Russell 2000 which is the small cap universe that's in the sixth percentile towards expensive”
Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks
2018-10-29
Big Tech
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Companies trading at 50-100x pre-tax free cash flow or losing money are 'the world's worst investment strategy as a group' historically, even though some individual winners will emerge via survivorship bias
“the bucket of companies that are trading at 50 or 100 times pre-tax free cash flows or losing money historically that's the world's worst investment strategy”
Why Gotham's Greenblatt Likes 'Gushing' Cash-Flow Stocks
2017-04-04
long CHEAPEST-DECILE STOCKS BY EARNINGS YIELD AND ROIC (2000-STOCK LARGE-CAP UNIVERSE) / short FCF
pair
Joel Greenblatt · video
Buying a basket of cheap, high-return-on-capital businesses while shorting a basket of expensive capital-destroyers or money-losers exploits persistent behavioral and agency mispricings that time-arbitrage captures over a full market cycle
“I'd buy these guys up here in the upper left-hand corner and short these guys in the bottom right-hand corner”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
Apple trades at roughly half the S&P 500's valuation multiple with a 10% free cash flow yield and high returns on capital, providing a large margin of safety regardless of whether it is ultimately a hardware company or an ecosystem/brand play
“I think it's cheap relative to um to other choices right now”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
2017-04-04
SPIN-OFFS
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Spin-offs remain ripe for mispricing because shareholders discard them for non-investment reasons — wrong size, wrong mandate, out-of-favor sector — creating durable opportunities to buy businesses at discounts unrelated to their investment merits
“they still are ripe for mispricing really what I'm looking for”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
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