Investors / stance tracking
What Joel Greenblatt is saying
Co-CIO, Gotham Asset Management
21 dated public stances tracked since 2017-04-04, most recently 2026-08-29. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Joel Greenblatt's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Joel Greenblatt is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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21
tracked stances
17
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-29
last heard
Returns 90d +10.1% (n=8) · 180d +15.0% (n=8) · 1y +14.1% (n=8)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
AAPL — bullish2017-04-04 → bearish2025-04-29
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-04-29 | |
| ALGN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-07-14 | |
| BA | 1 | 1 bullish | 2023-07-14 | |
| CHEAPEST 20% OF LARGE-CAP US STOCKS (VALUE FACTOR) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2023-05-18 | |
| F | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-07-14 | |
| FUNDAMENTALLY-WEIGHTED / EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX FUNDS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-04-29 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-29
RUSSELL 2000 MOST-EXPENSIVE NAMES
short
Joel Greenblatt · video
The Russell 2000 sits at the 4th valuation percentile over 28 years (cheaper 96% of the time), and at this extreme, historical one-year forward returns have averaged negative 2-4%; shorting the most overvalued names within the index maximizes the opportunity.
“we're shorting the most expensive stocks in a very expensive index”
Star Investor Joel Greenblatt Beats the Market Without Going Out on a Limb
2026-08-29
VTV
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
After a long multi-year period of underperformance, low-price-book/price-sales value stocks in the Vanguard Value ETF represent a relative bargain versus the broader S&P 500 today.
“I think investors are getting a relative bargain to the S&P today, and it's had a long period of underperformance”
Star Investor Joel Greenblatt Beats the Market Without Going Out on a Limb
2025-04-29
P
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Ranking stocks by cheapness (low P/E) and quality (high return on capital) and buying the best combined-ranked names produced 13.9% annually vs. ~7.8% for the S&P 500/Russell 1000 from 1990–2010, beating all other indexing approaches.
“value weighted indexes beat them all”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2025-04-29
FUNDAMENTALLY-WEIGHTED / EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX FUNDS
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Market-cap-weighted indexes systematically buy more of overpriced stocks and less of underpriced ones, so equal- or fundamentally-weighted indexes correct this flaw and have historically outperformed by 2.7–4.5% per year.
“it actually is systematically doing the wrong thing at every point”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2025-04-29
AAPL
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
At a ~3% earnings yield and needing ~10 more years of 7–8% growth to reach a 6% yield threshold, Apple fails Greenblatt's opportunity-cost valuation test at current prices above P/E 20.
“at current valuations I'd say that Apple doesn't pass the first test”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2025-04-29
SMALL-CAP STOCKS (MARKET CAP BELOW $1 BILLION)
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Small-cap stocks offer a structural advantage because large allocators like Buffett cannot deploy meaningful capital there, reducing competition and leaving more mispricing opportunities for small investors.
“Any company with a market cap lower than 1 billion seems to fall within that category”
THE BIG SECRET FOR THE SMALL INVESTOR – SUMMARY (JOEL GREENBLATT)
2023-07-14
HD
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Home Depot is a duopoly (only Lowe's competes), earns above-average returns on capital, and trades at a below-market valuation — a better-than-average business at a below-average price
“really hard to get a better setup or business than this”
90d -6.8% · 180d +14.2% · 1y +16.2%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-07-14
BA
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Boeing is a duopoly (only Airbus competes) with high returns on capital for a capital-intensive business, operating in a structurally growing air-travel market, and trades below market valuations
“above average business at below average prices that's that's pretty exciting”
90d -10.2% · 180d +6.9% · 1y -16.0%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-07-14
WMT
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Walmart's unmatched economies of scale give it superior buying power and customer loyalty, making it a great business available at a below-market valuation
“above average business at a below average price”
90d +3.1% · 180d +5.0% · 1y +36.9%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-07-14
ALGN
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Align Technology faces imminent patent expiration opening the door to competition from startups, yet trades at a very expensive valuation that already prices in sustained dominance it is unlikely to maintain
“coming off patents soon competition is coming in paying a very high price”
90d +27.0% · 180d +24.6% · 1y +34.5%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-07-14
MNST
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Monster Beverage trades at a high valuation while its key distribution partner Coca-Cola is moving into the energy drink category, introducing direct competition from within its own supply chain
“very expensive and competition is coming”
90d +17.1% · 180d -2.8% · 1y +13.0%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-07-14
F
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Ford's low P/E is misleading because it generates no free cash flow and faces heavy capex requirements ahead; valued on cash flows it is actually expensive in a tough, commoditized auto business
“looks like a low PE stock but they don't generate any cash”
90d +19.0% · 180d +18.9% · 1y -1.3%
Joel Greenblatt | Where to Find Value In the Stock Market
2023-05-18
CHEAPEST 20% OF LARGE-CAP US STOCKS (VALUE FACTOR)
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The cheapest 20% of the top 1400 US stocks by Gotham's cash-flow-based metric is at the 93rd percentile of cheapness over 30 years, historically returning ~63% over the subsequent two years from similar levels, creating a compelling opportunity versus the S&P…
“we're in the 93rd percentile for that portfolio towards cheap over the last 30 years”
HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt
2023-05-18
SPX
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The S&P 500 is at the 23rd percentile toward expensive by Gotham's metrics, implying sub-normal but still positive expected returns of ~14-15% over two years, making it less attractive than deep value but not outright bearish
“subnormal but not negative... closer to 14 or 15 percent over the next two years”
HFA Fireside Chat with Hedge Fund Manager Joel Greenblatt
2021-05-18
SPACS AND LOSS-MAKING COMPANIES (>$1B MARKET CAP)
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The cohort of 299+ unprofitable companies trading above $1B market cap are collectively priced as if they will all become the next Amazon or Google, which is statistically implausible — the speculation will end badly for most of them
“everyone is assuming that these guys are going to be the next amazon google microsoft...seems unlikely that all of them or even a big percentage of them will”
What makes a GREAT INVESTOR? | Episode 111 Joel Greenblatt
2021-05-18
long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT / long AAPL
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Apple represent some of the greatest businesses ever created with unprecedented franchise quality and effectively unlimited growth trajectories, and unlike the dot-com bubble are currently at reasonable rather than wildly…
“those are some of the greatest businesses that man has ever created...they're actually perhaps reasonably valued and perhaps good investments”
90d +16.8% · 180d +25.1% · 1y -3.9%
What makes a GREAT INVESTOR? | Episode 111 Joel Greenblatt
2021-01-08
UNPROFITABLE COMPANIES WITH MARKET CAP OVER $1B
bearish
Joel Greenblatt · video
The ~261 money-losing companies with market caps over $1B were up a median 50% and average over 100% in 2020, representing speculative froth disconnected from fundamentals
“that's a little frothy, I would say”
Joel Greenblatt on market factors, improving education, reducing income inequality & more | E1159
2021-01-08
long AMZN / long GOOGL / long MSFT
basket
Joel Greenblatt · video
Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are among the best businesses ever created and remain attractive holdings despite broader market froth
“the Amazon, Google's, and Microsoft's don't bother me. We own a bunch of those. I think those are some of the best businesses we've ever seen”
90d +14.8% · 180d +28.3% · 1y +33.3%
Joel Greenblatt on market factors, improving education, reducing income inequality & more | E1159
2017-04-04
AAPL
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Apple trades at roughly half the S&P 500's valuation multiple with a 10% free cash flow yield and high returns on capital, providing a large margin of safety regardless of whether it is ultimately a hardware company or an ecosystem/brand play
“I think it's cheap relative to um to other choices right now”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
2017-04-04
SPIN-OFFS
bullish
Joel Greenblatt · video
Spin-offs remain ripe for mispricing because shareholders discard them for non-investment reasons — wrong size, wrong mandate, out-of-favor sector — creating durable opportunities to buy businesses at discounts unrelated to their investment merits
“they still are ripe for mispricing really what I'm looking for”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
2017-04-04
long CHEAPEST-DECILE STOCKS BY EARNINGS YIELD AND ROIC (2000-STOCK LARGE-CAP UNIVERSE) / short FCF
pair
Joel Greenblatt · video
Buying a basket of cheap, high-return-on-capital businesses while shorting a basket of expensive capital-destroyers or money-losers exploits persistent behavioral and agency mispricings that time-arbitrage captures over a full market cycle
“I'd buy these guys up here in the upper left-hand corner and short these guys in the bottom right-hand corner”
The Little Book that Beats the Market | Joel Greenblatt | Talks at Google
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