Investors / stance tracking
What Marko Papic is saying
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67 dated public stances tracked since 2022-02-24, most recently 2026-03-17. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Marko Papic's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Marko Papic is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
67
tracked stances
31
themes
10
side flips
2026-03-17
last heard
Returns 90d +2.0% 61% correct · 46 calls · 180d +5.8% 59% correct · 46 calls · 1y +6.7% 60% correct · 40 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | OIL | owns | +2.0% | +31.8% | — |
| 2026-01-06 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +1.9% | +15.1% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | USD | bearish | -0.8% | -2.1% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | SPX | bullish | +0.4% | +11.6% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | OIL | bullish | +28.3% | +92.3% | — |
| 2025-12-04 | China Equities | bullish | -6.9% | -6.5% | — |
| 2025-07-04 | SPX | bearish | -8.1% | -10.5% | -22.4% |
| 2025-07-04 | OIL | bearish | +6.5% | +9.6% | -36.4% |
| 2025-07-02 | long China Equities / short SPX | pair | +2.2% | -2.8% | -16.4% |
| 2025-07-02 | USTS | bullish | +2.1% | +3.5% | +2.9% |
| 2025-07-02 | GOLD | bullish | +14.9% | +28.9% | +22.3% |
| 2025-07-02 | GCC | bullish | +6.2% | +12.4% | +20.6% |
| 2025-07-02 | European Equities | bullish | +2.8% | +8.9% | +18.4% |
| 2025-07-02 | COPPER | bullish | -6.9% | +6.0% | +15.7% |
| 2025-04-09 | long European Equities / short SPX | pair | +2.0% | -0.4% | +3.7% |
| 2025-04-09 | USD | bearish | +4.2% | +2.4% | -0.4% |
| 2025-04-09 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +6.9% | +8.4% | +42.1% |
| 2025-04-09 | China Equities | bullish | +17.5% | +32.5% | +17.4% |
| 2025-04-09 | Big Tech | bearish | -18.7% | -30.7% | -31.6% |
| 2025-03-26 | long European Equities / short SPX | pair | +1.0% | -2.2% | +0.8% |
| 2025-03-26 | OIL | bullish | -3.2% | -2.6% | +55.5% |
| 2025-03-26 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +8.9% | +15.3% | +22.3% |
| 2025-03-26 | European Equities | bullish | +9.0% | +13.6% | +16.3% |
| 2024-11-01 | USD | bearish | -4.8% | +2.3% | -0.6% |
| 2024-11-01 | SPX | bullish | +6.3% | -2.3% | +21.1% |
| 2024-11-01 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.0% | -0.3% | -3.2% |
| 2024-11-01 | GOLD | bullish | +2.2% | +20.3% | +46.1% |
| 2024-11-01 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +3.7% | -3.1% | +8.6% |
| 2024-08-10 | OIL | bearish | +7.0% | +4.0% | +6.1% |
| 2024-08-10 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +15.3% | +12.3% | +23.3% |
| 2024-08-10 | India Equities | bullish | -2.4% | -8.0% | -5.4% |
| 2024-07-25 | USD | bearish | -1.6% | -6.3% | +1.5% |
| 2024-07-25 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.8% | +2.7% | +2.3% |
| 2023-10-03 | USTS | bearish | -7.8% | -5.8% | -12.8% |
| 2023-10-03 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -16.7% | -10.9% | -19.4% |
| 2023-03-14 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +4.1% | +7.1% | +25.4% |
| 2023-03-14 | China Equities | bearish | -0.2% | +1.7% | +8.8% |
| 2023-03-14 | ASML | bullish | +18.0% | +1.6% | +57.4% |
| 2023-03-10 | ENERGY | bullish | +0.0% | +12.6% | +11.8% |
| 2023-03-10 | China Equities | bullish | +1.5% | +1.3% | -9.9% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 46 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
China Equities — bearish2023-03-14 → bullish2025-04-09
India Equities — bearish2022-06-23 → bullish2024-08-10
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2022-12-09 → bearish2023-10-03
China Equities — bullish2023-03-10 → bearish2023-03-14
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OIL | 7 | 3 bullish / 3 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-03-17 | |
| China Equities | 4 | 3 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-12-04 | |
| Commodities Broad | 4 | 4 bullish | 2025-04-09 | |
| INDUSTRIALS | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-01-06 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 4 | 1 bullish / 3 bearish | 2024-11-01 | |
| USD | 4 | 4 bearish | 2025-12-04 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Iran's threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz puts a geopolitical risk premium on oil that is well-founded given the disruption to global supply transit, which he positioned for before the conflict escalated
“I went long oil in January. So, like anyone who thinks I'm being too sanguine, brother, I'm up 70%”
90d +2.0% · 180d +31.8%
How Trump Ends the Iran War | Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic
Geopolitical resource hoarding — the US, China, and others sequestering copper, zinc, nickel and other industrial metals into non-tradable spheres of influence — will drive investors to front-run a structural scramble for these commodities in 2026
“one of the strongest gains in 2026 could be the increase in prices for industrial metals”
90d +1.9% · 180d +15.1%
Open Interest 1/6/2026
2025-12-29
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Peak de-globalization hysteria was reached in 2025 and tariffs on non-tech Chinese goods are likely to come down, reducing the overall US tariff rate from 14.4% and improving the macro backdrop for Chinese equities
“what's more important for my forecast? Is it to be long Chinese equities or to have a view on the overall tariff rate?”
5 Geopolitical Shocks Coming in 2026 (China, Trump, & War) | Jacob Shapiro & Marko Papic
Political pressure on the Fed to run more dovish monetary policy than warranted, combined with exhausted fiscal stimulus options, will weaken the dollar as the escape valve, continuing the trend of 2025
“the obvious trade... I think the way to play domestic politics in the US is to effectively try to play with dollar weakness”
90d -0.8% · 180d -2.1%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Said again: 2025-12-12 (Marko Papic), 2025-12-29 (Marko Papic)
Erosion of Fed independence historically benefits equities as the central bank loses its role as the 'prudent adult' that bursts bubbles by raising rates, and dovish monetary policy will inflate asset prices further
“Anyone who wants to short stocks in 26... is basically going against history. Erosion of independent central banking is amazing for equities”
90d +0.4% · 180d +11.6%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Saudi Arabia's domestic fiscal needs will force a shift away from high-production/low-price policy in 2026, reducing supply on the market, while Venezuela cannot realistically replace that supply within 18 months given destroyed productive capacity
“I don't really see a bearish outcome for oil prices, at least not in the next 18 months”
90d +28.3% · 180d +92.3%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Said again: 2025-12-29 (Marko Papic)
2025-12-04
China Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Dollar weakness driven by dovish Fed policy will cause non-US assets to outperform US equities in 2026 as it did in 2025, regardless of the AI-driven S&P bull market
“own some European equities, own some Chinese equities, own some Japanese equities, just diversify”
90d -6.9% · 180d -6.5%
MacroVoices #509 Marko Papic: Geo-macro Outlook for 2026
Geopolitical risk premia on oil from Middle East conflicts (Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine) dissipate rapidly because policy makers deliberately design sanctions and embargoes to avoid material supply disruption, as seen when Russian crude was redirected to…
“the reason I shorted oil at the time was because it was very clear”
90d +6.5% · 180d +9.6% · 1y -36.4%
End of US Exceptionalism as Global Order Breaks with Marko Papic
The shift from a unipolar to multipolar world requires portfolio outflows from the US as the current account deficit narrows, causing US assets to underperform the rest of the world for the next five years, even if S&P 500 does not enter a bear market…
“whatever allocation you have to the US, cut it in half for the next five years”
90d -8.1% · 180d -10.5% · 1y -22.4%
End of US Exceptionalism as Global Order Breaks with Marko Papic
2025-07-04
SAUDI ARABIA / MIDDLE EAST EQUITIES AND ECONOMY
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Saudi Arabia's Meiji-style economic modernization drive and its 2022 détente with Iran have created regional stability that insulates Gulf oil production from conflict, setting up a positive investment environment in the region.
“Middle East is perhaps in the best situation it's ever been”
End of US Exceptionalism as Global Order Breaks with Marko Papic
2025-07-02
long China Equities / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
US fiscal exceptionalism is ending as bond yields cap government spending capacity and voters no longer support populism after 2022 inflation, collapsing the 2x earnings multiple premium US equities commanded over Europe and the rest of the world.
“take whatever allocation you have to US assets and half them”
90d +2.2% · 180d -2.8% · 1y -16.4%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
Dollar weakness and the extreme overvaluation of financial assets relative to real assets makes gold a valid cash diversifier, though the pace of recent gains is unlikely to be maintained—the bigger opportunity is in the broader real asset complex.
“gold is a diversifier for your cash”
90d +14.9% · 180d +28.9% · 1y +22.3%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
2025-07-02
European Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
Europe faces a 18-24 month tsunami of LNG supply that will dramatically lower industrial energy costs, Eastern European labor mobility neutralizes demographic concerns, and European equities trade at roughly half the earnings multiple of US equities with no…
“Europe will be absolutely drowned by a tsunami wave of LNG supply”
90d +2.8% · 180d +8.9% · 1y +18.4%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
The Big Beautiful Bill stabilizes rather than expands the deficit, tariffs will stay modest enough to collect revenue, and the US economy is clearly slowing—bond vigilantes already rioted in late 2024 and have nothing new to react to, so further yield upside…
“expecting more upside in yields at this point is highly unlikely, especially with the economy in the US clearly slowing”
90d +2.1% · 180d +3.5% · 1y +2.9%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
Financial assets are at their most extreme overvaluation relative to real assets in recorded history, and as the dollar continues to decline everything nailed to the ground—copper, iron ore, real estate—will outperform; gold is too narrow a focus.
“we've never been in a world where financial assets are more overvalued relative to real”
90d -6.9% · 180d +6.0% · 1y +15.7%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
2025-07-02
Crypto Other
bullish
Wealthion · video
Like gold, crypto serves as a diversifier for cash holdings against USD debasement in a world where the dollar is set to weaken for several more years.
“gold is a diversifier for your cash and so is crypto by the way”
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
2025-07-02
MAGNIFICENT 7
bullish
Wealthion · video
Dollar collapse directly boosts Mag7 international revenues and trading partners are reversing planned digital services taxes as part of tariff negotiations with the US, providing a near-term 6-month tailwind.
“I am not a fan of the Magnificent 7 in the long term, but I can see how over the next six months they could do very well”
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
2025-07-02
GCC
bullish
Wealthion · video
The Iran-Saudi détente of 2022 and the US offshore balancing role create durable geopolitical stability for GCC states, enabling them to attract significant capital inflows and achieve considerable economic growth over the next five years despite surrounding…
“they're going to actually be a source of considerable growth, innovation, and capital inflows over the next five years”
90d +6.2% · 180d +12.4% · 1y +20.6%
Marko Papic: The U.S. Gravy Train Is Ending — Cut Your U.S. Exposure in Half?!
2025-04-09
long European Equities / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
Valuation gap between US and Europe is egregious after a 15-year US run fueled by exceptional fiscal stimulus; as US fiscal space closes, Europe retains room to stimulate and is cheap by comparison, making a long Europe / underweight US rotation the right…
“would I be long Europe as I am right now in my recommendations? The answer would be no [if prices were equal]”
90d +2.0% · 180d -0.4% · 1y +3.7%
Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk
US pandemic-era fiscal stimulus (40% of GDP, 4x Europe's spend) was the primary driver of dollar strength, and as that fiscal tailwind ends — accelerated by Trump's trade war — the dollar faces a 30% decline vs the euro over roughly two years
“my target for US dollar was to decline 30% no matter who comes to power”
90d +4.2% · 180d +2.4% · 1y -0.4%
Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk
Said again: 2025-07-02 (Wealthion), 2025-07-04 (Marko Papic)
2025-04-09
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Secular long on commodities as anti-dollar, anti-US-exceptionalism assets; current recession-driven weakness is a temporary cyclical drag on a structural multi-year bull case tied to dollar decline and EM growth
“I can have a very positive secular view on commodities and understand why they're dropping right now”
90d +6.9% · 180d +8.4% · 1y +42.1%
Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk
2025-04-09
China Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
China's outperformance from Jan–Apr 2025 — which Papic calls 'the truth' signal for the next five years — reflects global capital beginning to diversify away from expensive US assets toward undervalued alternatives, with China as the highest-return…
“China was actually performing the best, high risk, high reward”
90d +17.5% · 180d +32.5% · 1y +17.4%
Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk
Said again: 2025-07-02 (Wealthion)
2025-04-09
Big Tech
bearish
Wealthion · video
Mag7 are railroads — infrastructure builders for AI without durable moats, wasting capex on buildout that DeepSeek shows can be replicated far more cheaply, so the premium embedded in their valuations is not justified
“I don't think Mag7 are going to have a monopoly or a moat over AI productization. I think they're railroads”
90d -18.7% · 180d -30.7% · 1y -31.6%
Marko Papic: Markets Misread Trump - Here’s the Real Risk
2025-03-26
long European Equities / short SPX
pair
Marko Papic · video
Trump's geopolitical equilibria reduce the safe-haven premium embedded in US assets while Europe re-rates as war-risk unwinds, making a long-Europe / underweight-US rotation the cleaner expression of the settlement trade
“I am underweight US relative to global”
90d +1.0% · 180d -2.2% · 1y +0.8%
Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic
Collapsing LNG-driven electricity costs will invalidate the deindustrialization narrative, and with European industrials pricing in the bear case, this represents a generational valuation opportunity
“It's a generational investment opportunity for anyone watching this”
90d +8.9% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +22.3%
Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic
Iran geopolitics, not Russia-Ukraine settlement, is the near-term swing factor for oil — a Russia peace deal adds no new barrels while Iran escalation could tighten supply
“next three months, what happens in the Middle East with Iran is probably gonna have more upside”
90d -3.2% · 180d -2.6% · 1y +55.5%
Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic
2025-03-26
European Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Safe-haven flows that rotated out of Europe into US big-tech during Ukraine war will unwind on settlement, while Europe trades at a significant valuation discount to the US and faces falling energy costs from LNG oversupply
“I've been very bullish Europe for the past 12 months”
90d +9.0% · 180d +13.6% · 1y +16.3%
Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic
Qatar, Mozambique, British Columbia, US, and Russia are all adding LNG supply simultaneously over the next 12-24 months, creating a structural glut that collapses European energy prices
“Europe will be drowned in a tsunami wave of LNG over the next few years”
Putin's Failure: Russia Can't Win Against Western Capitalism | Marko Papic
The end of the fiscal stimulus era combined with bond market pressure forcing fiscal consolidation will reduce US growth differentials and trigger outflows from US assets, leading to a significantly cheaper dollar over 12-24 months
“the real 12 to 24 month consequence of the Trump presidency will probably be a significantly cheaper dollar”
90d -4.8% · 180d +2.3% · 1y -0.6%
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
2024-11-01
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Marko Papic · video
A Trump victory would drive the long end of the yield curve higher due to expectations of greater fiscal deficits, inflationary policies, and a track record of generating nominal GDP growth
“bond yields are going up in preparation for a Donald Trump victory where the upside to yields is even greater”
90d +2.0% · 180d -0.3% · 1y -3.2%
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
Gold is pricing in fiscal dominance risks and long-term inflation staying above central bank mandates, while central bank diversification away from dollars post-Russia sanctions provides structural support regardless of real yield movements
“gold according to real yields should be at $900... gold doesn't care anymore”
90d +2.2% · 180d +20.3% · 1y +46.1%
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
2024-11-01
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
A weakening dollar, end of US fiscal dominance, and extremely cheap EM valuations relative to the US create a favorable rotation opportunity for strategic allocators
“every time you go to a country like in emerging markets it's so stupidly cheap that it's stupid”
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
2024-11-01
Commodities Broad
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Deglobalization from China and the energy transition are simultaneously increasing commodity demand while restricting supply, sustaining a structurally elevated commodity price environment
“the world we're in is going to require a lot of commodities”
90d +3.7% · 180d -3.1% · 1y +8.6%
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
2024-11-01
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Chinese assets are priced for imperfection and a Trump policy shift from tariffs on countries to tariffs on companies gives China an acceptable deal, while incremental fiscal stimulus removes left-tail risk of collapse
“Chinese assets are so cheap they're priced for imperfection”
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
The Saudi-Iranian détente restrains Iran from retaliating against oil infrastructure even amid Israeli-Iranian tensions, capping geopolitical risk premium in crude prices
“I wrote a note on October 8th telling my clients not to invest in oil because of Middle East violence”
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
US equities can still rise but will likely underperform other regions as fiscal tailwinds peak and bond market pressure from a Trump presidency creates volatility, making relative value elsewhere more attractive
“us equities can still go up you can just make more money maybe somewhere else”
90d +6.3% · 180d -2.3% · 1y +21.1%
Marko Papic: This Is What Markets Do Next
By May 2022, material constraints on Russia, absence of secondary sanctions making the oil embargo a PR effort, and collapsing Chinese demand alongside US near-recession meant the geopolitical risk premium in oil was unjustified and should be faded
“the big call of 2022 was to fade the geopolitical risk premium”
90d +7.0% · 180d +4.0% · 1y +6.1%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
A multi-polar world requiring de-risking from China and climate investment creates a structurally high-capex environment, supporting commodities and industrial/materials equities over a 5-year horizon
“it's pretty clear to me with a high conviction view that we're in a high capex context”
90d +15.3% · 180d +12.3% · 1y +23.3%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
Said again: 2024-11-01 (Marko Papic)
2024-08-10
India Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
In a multi-polar world where the US and China lack sufficient power to force countries to choose sides, EMs that play both superpowers against each other gain economic and trade advantages that make them attractive long-term investments
“pick those countries that realize it's a multi-polar world and are geopolitically promiscuous”
90d -2.4% · 180d -8.0% · 1y -5.4%
Geopolitically Promiscuous (Guest: Marko Papic)
During the five trading days when Trump's win probability hit 70%, the dollar performed poorly, suggesting a Trump/sweep outcome is not straightforwardly dollar-bullish given the inflationary fiscal policy risks it implies
“the US dollar did poorly stocks didn't do well and bonds...did not come down”
90d -1.6% · 180d -6.3% · 1y +1.5%
MacroVoices #438 Marko Papic: U.S. Presidential Race Risks & Complications for Markets
Said again: 2024-08-10 (Marko Papic)
2024-07-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Marko Papic · video
A Trump sweep with stimulative tax cuts would sustain elevated growth and inflation expectations, preventing the bond yield decline that underpins the soft-landing consensus and keeping long-end yields elevated
“bond yields may not come down as the vast majority of investors who are long want them to come down”
90d -0.8% · 180d +2.7% · 1y +2.3%
MacroVoices #438 Marko Papic: U.S. Presidential Race Risks & Complications for Markets
Said again: 2024-08-10 (Marko Papic)
If yields rise uncontrollably past 5% the Fed will be forced to intervene (yield curve control or equivalent), but a self-correcting mechanism via economic slowdown may prevent that extreme outcome, making the only actionable view watching policymaker…
“investors are in a very very dangerous moment we're traveling with events”
90d -7.8% · 180d -5.8% · 1y -12.8%
Papic Says Don't Try To Catch Falling Knife
2023-10-03
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Marko Papic · video
Fair value on the 10-year is closer to 5% (vs. the 3–3.5% many investors assumed), meaning hundreds of billions in bonds are overvalued and forced selling will push yields to overshoot, so buying here is premature
“don't assume that just because it's around five percent we're there and so people should buy bonds”
90d -16.7% · 180d -10.9% · 1y -19.4%
Papic Says Don't Try To Catch Falling Knife
2023-03-14
SAAS / SOFTWARE SECTOR
bearish
Marko Papic · video
The era of SaaS is ending because geopolitical competition is redirecting government and private capital toward hard technology, manufacturing, and industrials, while TAM for SaaS is shrinking as China and emerging markets develop their own local apps
“the decade of tech is gone might not go to zero but it's basically not going to go anywhere else”
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
European companies like ASML in semiconductors represent the kind of hard industrial technology that will outperform in the coming decade of great-power competition and government-directed industrial investment
“Holland ASML”
90d +18.0% · 180d +1.6% · 1y +57.4%
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
2023-03-14
India Equities
neutral
Marko Papic · video
India's growth is pure beta rather than alpha because it lacks manufacturing industrialization and is not gaining global export market share, making it a less compelling investment despite demographic tailwinds
“India's trade growth is pure beta play it's not an alpha play”
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
Europe is well-positioned for the coming industrial cycle because it has strong manufacturing, materials, and energy companies, and its energy crisis is forcing mission-oriented innovation in renewables and energy infrastructure
“Europe is actually good at all the things that are going to be important”
90d +4.1% · 180d +7.1% · 1y +25.4%
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
2023-03-14
JAPANESE MATERIALS AND GREEN-TECH MANUFACTURERS
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Japanese manufacturing and materials companies are well-suited for the coming industrial cycle, evidenced by a Japanese Green Tech materials index of companies producing next-generation industrial materials
“Japan materials great companies great manufacturing companies”
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
2023-03-14
China Equities
bearish
Marko Papic · video
China is at the end of its debt super-cycle and faces a decade of deleveraging combined with demographic headwinds, making Chinese consumer and TMT-driven growth unlikely to resume
“they're at the end of their debt super cycle they're going to have a decade of deleveraging”
90d -0.2% · 180d +1.7% · 1y +8.8%
Global Macro & Geopolitics Review with Marko Papic
ESG-driven mandates force liberal-leaning capital away from oil, depressing valuations and creating a harvestable sin premium for mandate-free investors
“liberals don't invest in oil at the end of the day”
90d +0.0% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +11.8%
Removing Emotions From Investing with Marko Papic
Said again: 2023-03-14 (Marko Papic)
2023-03-10
TOBACCO STOCKS
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Moral mandates force large capital pools to avoid tobacco, creating a sin premium that elevates dividends and depresses valuations for nimble investors to harvest
“tobacco stocks are great stocks right because nobody wants to hold them dividends are high”
Removing Emotions From Investing with Marko Papic
2023-03-10
China Equities
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Geopolitical moral mandates are forcing large capital pools out of Chinese assets, creating a sin premium dislocation that nimble, mandate-free investors can exploit
“there's going to be this sin premium now in everything in China”
90d +1.5% · 180d +1.3% · 1y -9.9%
Removing Emotions From Investing with Marko Papic
2022-12-15
US GROWTH / TECHNOLOGY STOCKS
bearish
Marko Papic · video
Structural capex-driven inflationary regime (3–5% CPI floor) will ultimately reprice growth stocks lower once the market accepts inflation won't return to 2%; the near-term bounce is a selling opportunity
“use the next three months to sell that because we're not moving from this capex driven inflationary cycle”
Geopolitical Alpha with Marko Papic
Geopolitical risk premium in oil was overpriced relative to cratering Chinese demand (measured by non-oil imports), and the EU oil embargo on Russia was largely a PR effort with limited real supply impact
“I recommended to our clients that we short oil since May... I triple down on that call in June when it hit like $120”
90d +9.3% · 180d +6.1% · 1y -1.5%
Geopolitical Alpha with Marko Papic
2022-12-15
INDONESIA EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Indonesia is a commodity-producing emerging market benefiting from improving terms of trade, and the government is pursuing structurally sound economic policies that support long-term growth
“we wrote a piece on Indonesia that was mega bullish”
Geopolitical Alpha with Marko Papic
2022-12-15
CHINESE EQUITIES
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Post-Party Congress political pivot in China is unlocking rapid pro-growth policy shifts (re-opening, real estate support, TMT deregulation, PSL liquidity) that will drive a large earnings recovery in 2023
“I think 2023 will be a great year for Chinese assets and for Chinese economy. Chinese equities are probably going to be the best performers in the world.”
Geopolitical Alpha with Marko Papic
2022-12-09
long GREEN TECHNOLOGY / long ENERGY
other
Marko Papic · video
ESG mandates and ideological screens imposed on large pools of capital create a persistent sin premium in fossil fuels (high dividends, undervalued), while policy-driven capital flows create a secular tailwind for green technology, making both sides of the…
“in the privates you invest in green tech and in the publics you invest in fossil fuels”
How to Predict the Future of Geopolitics with Marko Papic
2022-12-09
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Marko Papic · video
CPI will fall materially toward 4% and the Fed lacks political support to push further to 2%, so the 10-year yield declines as the tightening cycle stalls
“we've been long duration since October”
90d -3.3% · 180d -3.7% · 1y -8.3%
How to Predict the Future of Geopolitics with Marko Papic
Said again: 2022-12-15 (Marko Papic)
2022-12-09
Commodities Broad
bullish
Marko Papic · video
China's reopening ends the self-imposed demand recession that deflated commodities in 2022, restoring the structural commodity super-cycle thesis interrupted by the zero-covid interregnum
“oil prices but also metals should do well in 2023”
90d -1.5% · 180d -4.3% · 1y -3.6%
How to Predict the Future of Geopolitics with Marko Papic
Said again: 2022-12-15 (Marko Papic)
2022-12-09
TMT
bullish
Marko Papic · video
Zero-covid policy ending plus a pro-growth Shanghai premier plus falling 10-year yields lifting the TMT-dominated Chinese market make China the best-performing equity market in 2023
“I think China is going to have a great year and I think that it's an alpha generating opportunity”
How to Predict the Future of Geopolitics with Marko Papic
Showing the 60 most recent of 67 tracked stances.
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