Co-founder, Palantir; managing partner, 8VC
6 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-07, most recently 2026-10-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Joe Lonsdale's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Joe Lonsdale is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2025-03-31 | SPX | bullish | +10.8% | +19.3% | +17.6% |
| 2024-12-07 | BITCOIN | bullish | -13.2% | +1.7% | -9.5% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| BITCOIN | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2024-12-07 |
| COGNITION | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2026-10-22 |
| CRWV | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2026-10-22 |
| SPX | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2025-03-31 |
| TSLA | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2026-10-22 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-22
long SPX / short USTS
pair
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Favor the S&P 500 over fixed income because AI-driven productivity and corporate efficiency should lift equities, while stronger demand for money keeps interest rates high and weighs on bonds.
“You want to own equities... I do not think you want to own bonds for the next 10 years.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 13:32 ET (5 min)
2026-10-22
CRWV
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
CoreWeave could succeed despite extreme volatility because compute-infrastructure demand should remain enormous for multiple years.
“There's just such huge demand that we need everyone building infrastructure.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 13:37 ET (5 min)
2026-10-22
TSLA
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Tesla's robotics progress, top AI talent, and potential collaboration with SpaceX AI could make the combined enterprise exceptionally important over the next decade.
“This could be the most important company in the world by far over the next decade.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 13:37 ET (5 min)
2026-10-22
COGNITION
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Cognition is Lonsdale's preferred AI exposure because application companies should benefit as intelligence-driven productivity rises across the ecosystem.
“I'm probably more on the side of the Cognition bull than I am on OpenAI and Anthropic.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-22 13:37 ET (5 min)
2025-03-31
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
The US is far ahead in the AI wave due to superior talent concentration, entrepreneurial culture, and willingness to allow creative destruction, making the recent European equity rally a cyclical blip rather than evidence of a structural shift in global…
“America is just so far ahead in this AI wave”
90d +10.8% · 180d +19.3% · 1y +17.6%
The World According to Joe Lonsdale | TCAF 185
2024-12-07
BITCOIN
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Bitcoin represents the pro-liberty side of the global currency competition and serves as a necessary check on government fiscal excess, making it preferable to the authoritarian BRICS alternative threatening the dollar
“I am very bullish Bitcoin I love the all energy of our society around it”
90d -13.2% · 180d +1.7% · 1y -9.5%
New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
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