Investors / stance tracking
What Jeremy Grantham is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCo-founder & long-term strategist, GMO
95 dated public stances tracked since 2021-01-22, most recently 2026-10-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jeremy Grantham's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jeremy Grantham is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
95
tracked stances
56
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-02
last heard
Returns 90d -1.6% 44% correct · 43 calls · 180d -0.6% 44% correct · 36 calls · 1y -6.4% 35% correct · 26 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | USTS | bullish | -3.9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | GOLD | bullish | +6.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | Em Equities | bullish | -0.4% | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | BITCOIN | bearish | -41.3% | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | SPX | bearish | -5.7% | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | COPPER | bullish | +14.1% | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | NVDA | bearish | -1.6% | — | — |
| 2026-04-20 | ENERGY | bullish | +6.0% | +24.7% | — |
| 2026-04-20 | Big Tech | bearish | -7.7% | -11.3% | — |
| 2026-04-17 | short SPX / long SPX | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | — |
| 2026-04-17 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +0.6% | +17.7% | — |
| 2026-03-23 | long NON-US DEVELOPED VALUE STOCKS / long Em Equities / short SPX | pair | +5.5% | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-03-23 | Em Equities | bullish | +24.9% | +20.7% | — |
| 2026-03-16 | SPX | bearish | -13.1% | -14.3% | — |
| 2026-03-16 | Quality Stocks | bullish | +11.7% | +12.2% | — |
| 2026-03-16 | International Dev | owns | +11.2% | +10.5% | — |
| 2026-01-19 | NVDA | bearish | -13.5% | -14.3% | — |
| 2025-11-02 | long International Dev / short SPX | pair | +3.5% | +3.5% | +1.0% |
| 2025-11-02 | SPX | bearish | -2.1% | -6.1% | -11.3% |
| 2025-11-02 | CASH | bullish | +0.9% | +1.8% | +3.7% |
| 2025-07-10 | USD | bullish | +2.6% | +3.5% | +8.2% |
| 2025-07-10 | NVDA | bearish | -15.2% | -14.1% | -28.7% |
| 2025-07-10 | International Dev | bullish | +7.8% | +14.3% | +26.4% |
| 2025-07-10 | CASH | bullish | +1.0% | +2.0% | +3.8% |
| 2025-07-10 | Big Tech | bearish | -10.2% | -12.5% | -31.2% |
| 2025-05-15 | SPX | bearish | -9.5% | -16.3% | -26.6% |
| 2025-05-15 | Quality Stocks | bullish | +6.3% | +11.0% | +19.4% |
| 2025-05-15 | Em Equities | bullish | +10.1% | +21.2% | +43.9% |
| 2024-08-08 | SPX | bearish | -11.7% | -14.1% | -21.6% |
| 2024-08-08 | Quality Stocks | bullish | +9.3% | +10.3% | +12.2% |
| 2024-08-08 | NVDA | bearish | -38.7% | -13.0% | -74.1% |
| 2024-08-08 | ENERGY | bullish | +5.7% | +2.6% | -1.7% |
| 2024-08-08 | Big Tech | bearish | -13.0% | -17.4% | -29.0% |
| 2024-01-03 | long SPX / short SPX | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-01-03 | SPX | bearish | -11.0% | -17.1% | -26.3% |
| 2023-09-22 | long Em Equities / short SPX | pair | -2.7% | -6.5% | -8.4% |
| 2023-09-06 | long SPX / short SPX | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-06 | USTS | bearish | -2.1% | -2.7% | -9.1% |
| 2023-09-06 | Big Tech | bearish | -3.5% | -19.0% | -23.9% |
| 2023-08-18 | SPX | bearish | -3.5% | -15.1% | -30.0% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 43 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7 | 7 bearish | 2026-06-24 | |
| Big Tech | 5 | 5 bearish | 2026-08-30 | |
| Em Equities | 4 | 4 bullish | 2026-06-25 | |
| GOLD | 4 | 2 bullish / 2 neutral | 2026-10-02 | |
| NVDA | 4 | 4 bearish | 2026-06-18 | |
| ENERGY | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-04-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-02
long Em Equities / short SPX
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
Emerging markets returned 65% vs S&P's 25% over the past 12 months and the historical pattern of US dominance reverts, making a decisive rotation from US to non-US equities the core positioning
“Buy a broad index of non-US stocks, for example, 60% of your capital”
"Start Preparing Yourself..." - Jeremy Grantham
Allocate 10% of capital to precious metals as a defensive hedge within a portfolio being repositioned away from overvalued US equities and the AI bubble
“invest 10% in precious metals”
"Start Preparing Yourself..." - Jeremy Grantham
Invest remaining capital in bonds as the safe anchor of a defensive portfolio constructed to weather the unwinding of the AI bubble and US equity overvaluation
“the rest I would invest in bonds”
"Start Preparing Yourself..." - Jeremy Grantham
Crypto is too volatile to function as a currency or store of value, its primary utility is speculation, and a shrinking global population reduces the pool of future buyers, ensuring eventual depreciation toward zero
“it's a great vehicle for speculation... In the distant future, yes, it will certainly depreciate”
"Start Preparing Yourself..." - Jeremy Grantham
2026-10-02
US RESIDENTIAL HOUSING
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Housing is unaffordable for a growing share of the population, family formation is already declining in richer countries, and falling demographic demand structurally reduces the buyer base, pointing to a meaningful price correction ahead
“if family formation is declining and housing is too expensive, what do you think will happen”
"Start Preparing Yourself..." - Jeremy Grantham
2026-08-30
Big Tech
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
AI forces all seven mega-cap tech firms to compete in the same arena, destroying their individual monopoly pricing power and the fat profit margins that justified their elevated multiples — a structural regime shift from cooperative oligopoly to brutal…
“they're going to all pile in the ring together...capitalism red in tooth and claw...lots of blood”
"Most People Have No Idea What's About To Happen..." - Jeremy Grantham
Said again: 2026-10-02 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-08-08
short SPX / long SPX
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
US equities are at historically extreme valuations (35-40x earnings), comparable to or worse than the 2000 bubble peak, while non-US equities are much cheaper and have already outperformed since early last year, making a rotation out of the US and into world…
“own them outside America. Don't own US stocks. That's a nice simple strategy that you can act on”
"The Collapse Already Begun..." - Jeremy Grantham
Precious metals provide diversification and wealth preservation in a bubble environment where US equities face severe downside risk and cash is eroded
“5 or 10% in precious metals”
90d +6.3%
Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!
Said again: 2026-06-26 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-08-08 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-06-25
Em Equities
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Emerging markets have already demonstrated rotation alpha (+65% over the last year vs S&P +25%) at much cheaper valuations, and the US-vs-rest-of-world cycle historically mean-reverts after extreme US outperformance
“Emerging markets is up 65% now. The S&P... it's only 25.”
90d -0.4%
Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!
With ~4.5-5% yields available on US government and high-grade corporate bonds, fixed income offers a creditworthy return stream as a safe-haven allocation ahead of an expected equity market decline
“The rest I'd put in bonds.”
90d -3.9%
Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!
Said again: 2026-08-08 (Jeremy Grantham)
Crypto has no viable use case beyond criminal money movement, is not a stable store of value due to extreme volatility, and is not a functional medium of exchange — purely speculative with no intrinsic floor
“It will certainly go to zero.”
90d -41.3%
Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!
Said again: 2026-06-26 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-06-25
SPACEX (PRIVATE)
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
SpaceX's prospectus claims (mining asteroids, colonizing Mars, capturing a quarter of global GDP) are classic bubble-peak fantasy narrative comparable to the South Sea Bubble; its $3T valuation requires a sustained bull market and Elon Musk's BSing to work —…
“SpaceX defines as its addressable market a quarter of the global GDP... it's the classic description of a market peak.”
Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!
US equities have moved from 'spectacular' to 'even more spectacular' valuation, and historically high PEs predict poor subsequent returns and major mean reversion, not good times — comparable to 1929 and 2000 peaks
“the S&P with that last 23% kicker has moved into the read all about it in a hundred years time”
90d -5.7%
Jeremy Grantham | How to invest like a stock market legend | MoneyWeek Talks
Said again: 2026-06-25 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-26 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-26 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-06-24
SPACEX IPO
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
SpaceX's $1.7 trillion IPO valuation is a South Sea Bubble equivalent — running at huge losses, with 90% of revenue projections tied to AI dominance that competitors like Anthropic are actively eroding, making the projections implausible
“mining asteroids and colonies on Mars... what an act of faith”
Jeremy Grantham | How to invest like a stock market legend | MoneyWeek Talks
Copper ore grade has declined from 4% to 0.3%, requiring 10x more extraction effort per unit of output, creating a structural and irreversible supply constraint as demand grows
“the copper ore has gone from 4% copper to 0.3 — now you have 10 times the digging”
90d +14.1%
Jeremy Grantham | How to invest like a stock market legend | MoneyWeek Talks
Nvidia's dominance is an extraordinary head start from a gaming-chip architecture that accidentally fit AI, not a durable structural moat, and competition from Google and others plus potential chip architecture disruption will erode this advantage over the…
“It seems like the ultimate head start. In a game where a head start is worth a ton of dough. It is worth a 10 tuple in your sales. But it's only a head start.”
90d -1.6%
Jeremy Grantham on How to Tell if a Bubble's About to Burst | Odd Lots
2026-06-18
AI-DRIVEN HIGH-MULTIPLE TECH STOCKS (100X SALES)
bearish
Odd Lots · video
The current AI market checks every historical bubble criterion — great economic times, easy money, and a transformative technology visible to everyone — and 100x price-to-sales valuations signal the same dynamic that caused the railroad and dot-com busts…
“If you think this is not a bubble, you are going to be in for a bit of disappointment”
Jeremy Grantham on How to Tell if a Bubble's About to Burst | Odd Lots
2026-06-02
MAGNIFICENT 7 / MEGA-CAP TECH
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The Mag 7 are transitioning from protected monopolists in separate lanes to fierce direct competitors all chasing AI dominance, which should compress profit margins as oligopoly pricing power gives way to cut-throat capital destruction
“they're all stripping for action and they're going to all pile in the ring together”
A stock market veteran’s view on the AI bubble
2026-06-02
AI INFRASTRUCTURE / AI CAPEX THEME
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
AI will replicate the railroad and internet bubble pattern where a genuinely transformative technology attracts excess capital, destroys returns for investors, and ultimately commoditises any productivity advantage so that profit margins do not durably rise
“everyone will have AI... the competitive advantage will have been competed mostly away”
A stock market veteran’s view on the AI bubble
2026-06-02
FOSSIL FUELS / OIL AND GAS
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Oil and gas face structurally rising costs and severe geopolitical supply-chain vulnerability, while capital is already rotating toward renewables as sophisticated energy buyers plan accordingly
“the vulnerability of oil and gas compared to the security of solar, wind, and storage”
A stock market veteran’s view on the AI bubble
2026-06-02
SOLAR, WIND, AND BATTERY STORAGE
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Wind, solar, and storage costs have fallen far faster than expected and continue declining, making them structurally cheaper and more energy-secure than fossil fuels, which face rising costs and geopolitical risk
“you invest in fossil fuels, it'll get more and more expensive”
A stock market veteran’s view on the AI bubble
2026-05-25
GMO
owns
Jeremy Grantham · video
A long-cheap short-expensive strategy is generating positive returns (~9% at time of recording) in a broadly down market as value begins to outperform after a 15-year drought, consistent with mean reversion in profit margins and valuations
“We have a fund that goes long cheap and short expensive which is last I looked up nine for this year, 9%.”
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
2026-05-25
GREEN TECHNOLOGY / CLIMATE TECH VENTURE
owns
Jeremy Grantham · video
Wind, solar, and battery storage are now cheaper than fossil fuels in 80% of the world even without subsidies, creating enormous investment opportunities; Grantham Foundation has deployed a large portion of its portfolio into green tech venture capital
“We have big chunk of our portfolio investing in green tech.”
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
2026-05-25
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITIES
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Emerging markets are cheaper on valuation metrics and have already outperformed the US significantly in recent periods, consistent with GMO's long-term forecast models which showed EM beating US by over 200 percentage points in the 2000-2010 cycle
“Emerging and developed ex-US had a splendid year and they've had a very good year this year much better than the US.”
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
2026-05-16
MAGNIFICENT 7 / MEGA-CAP TECH MONOPOLISTS
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
AI is transforming the Mag 7 from tolerated quasi-monopolists into ferocious competitors spending hundreds of billions attacking each other's markets, which will destroy the monopoly rents that justified their premium valuations over multiple years
“we have gone from a monopoly world to a brutal competitive world. And we will stay there for years”
He Tracked Every Major Bubble for 50 Years | Jeremy Grantham on What AI Can't Change
Iran war has pushed oil prices up ~50% and every major spike in oil prices without exception has caused a recession, implying sustained elevated energy costs will weigh heavily on the broader economy
“every major move in oil up has caused a recession without exception. Just check it.”
90d +6.0% · 180d +24.7%
Jeremy Grantham: Lessons from 60 Legendary Years of Investing
2026-04-20
Big Tech
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The MAG 7 have begun rolling over from recent highs in a pattern historically seen only in the late stages of the 1929, 1972, and 2000 bubbles, where prior market leaders turned down while blue chips briefly held up before a broader collapse
“the strangest condition of all... only happened in 1929, 1972 and 2000 and never in between”
90d -7.7% · 180d -11.3%
Jeremy Grantham: Lessons from 60 Legendary Years of Investing
Said again: 2026-05-25 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-18 (Odd Lots), 2026-06-24 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-25 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-26 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-04-17
short SPX / long SPX
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
US equities are as overpriced as 1929 and 2000 (a bubble by every measure), while international ex-US markets are reasonably valued and have already outperformed — the divergence favors a long-ex-US / avoid-US positioning until the S&P corrects
“my argument was only with the US market. Don't touch it. Buy everything else”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0%
Jeremy Grantham with Edward Chancellor
2026-04-17
NON-US / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
International and emerging markets are reasonably valued relative to the overpriced US market, and while a US collapse would drag them down temporarily, they would rally back much faster
“Buy everything else is okay... on a buy and hold basis you do very well.”
Jeremy Grantham with Edward Chancellor
2026-04-17
Commodities Broad
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The 100-year secular decline in real commodity prices ended ~15 years ago; after a sideways volatile interim, prices are set to trend higher as resource scarcity becomes structural
“the era of plentiful cheap resources is gone forever”
90d +0.6% · 180d +17.7%
Jeremy Grantham with Edward Chancellor
Said again: 2026-05-25 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-24 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-03-23
long NON-US DEVELOPED VALUE STOCKS / long Em Equities / short SPX
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
US equities are overvalued 'from top to toe' while non-US developed value and emerging market value stocks offer superior risk-adjusted returns — the rotation out of US into international value is the central portfolio call
“US stocks are not the thing to own...you should be owning non-US stocks, developed value stocks, and emerging country value stocks”
90d +5.5% · 180d +1.1%
Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP. 493)
2026-03-23
Em Equities
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Emerging market value stocks are attractively priced relative to US equities and represent a better return opportunity given US overvaluation
“You should be owning non-US stocks, developed value stocks, and emerging country value stocks”
90d +24.9% · 180d +20.7%
Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP. 493)
Said again: 2026-04-17 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-03-23
GREEN TECHNOLOGY VENTURE CAPITAL
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Early-stage green technology investments offer asymmetric upside — a small number of breakthroughs in areas like geothermal, fusion, or carbon capture could be transformative, justifying the high failure rate
“If the one in 50 hit, one in 100, and really make a difference, it might be worth it”
Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP. 493)
2026-03-23
NON-US DEVELOPED VALUE STOCKS
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Non-US developed value stocks offer superior returns relative to overpriced US equities and should be owned in place of US market exposure
“You should be owning non-US stocks, developed value stocks, and emerging country value stocks”
Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP. 493)
2026-03-16
International Dev
owns
Jeremy Grantham · video
Non-US equities have moved from cheap to reasonably priced but remain dramatically more attractive versus the US bubble valuation, and Grantham is personally positioned long in family accounts with a target to begin reducing only after a further ~20% gain
“compared to the US, they are so brilliant. I would stand my ground. Indeed, in my family accounts, that's precisely what I'm doing”
90d +11.2% · 180d +10.5%
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
Said again: 2026-05-16 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-03-16
Quality Stocks
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
High-quality stocks have historically outperformed the broader market by ~0.5% annually in perpetuity, a persistent anomaly that GMO built into its portfolios as a near-free lunch
“the AAA stocks actually have slightly outperformed... 8 and a half and that is ridiculous”
90d +11.7% · 180d +12.2%
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
Said again: 2026-03-23 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-04-20 (Jeremy Grantham)
US equities are in a major bubble with a PE of ~31 that historically has always reverted toward 17, guaranteeing a major bear market when it does
“if the current PE which is 31 comes down to 17 anytime in the next 10 years will it guarantee a major bare market... the vote was 100%”
90d -13.1% · 180d -14.3%
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
Said again: 2026-03-23 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-04-17 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-04-20 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-05-16 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-05-25 (Jeremy Grantham), 2026-06-02 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-03-16
AI/INTERNET INVESTING (NEAR-TERM)
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
AI and internet-related investing is being overdone near-term and will suffer a significant correction regardless of long-term potential, as authorities remain complacent
“internet investing near-term... will be overdone and it will have a buff”
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
Precious metals lack dividends and practical utility, and Grantham's personal experience with them has been so poor he advises avoiding them despite their long history as stores of value
“I'm psychologically crippled now on precious metals... I think I should leave them alone”
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
2026-03-16
REGENERATIVE FARMING / SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The world needs to transition to more sustainable farming practices, creating long-term investment opportunity in regenerative agriculture as a necessary structural shift
“regenerative farming... we need to farm in a more sustainable way”
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
2026-03-16
AI/INTERNET STOCKS
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Near-term AI and internet investing will be overdone and experience a bust following the pattern of every prior technology bubble, regardless of long-term secular merits
“internet investing near term...it will be overdone, and it will have a bust”
"U.S. Market In A Major Bubble... " - Jeremy Grantham
Nvidia will lead the AI bubble collapse, as AI meets every historical condition for a bubble bust — powerful idea, universal belief, everyone's money already in — analogous to Amazon's 92% decline after the internet peak despite being the defining company of…
“my guess is Nvidia will lead it down and all the others will follow for a while”
90d -13.5% · 180d -14.3%
Said again: 2026-03-23 (Jeremy Grantham)
2026-01-19
INTERNATIONAL VALUE EQUITIES
bullish
video
Non-US markets (international value, Japan, EM) remain reasonably priced versus extreme US valuations even after 35–45% gains, offering superior risk-adjusted returns while the US faces bubble-level compression
“compared to the US they are so brilliant”
2025-11-02
long International Dev / short SPX
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
US equities are at historically extreme valuations (Shiller PE 39, Wilshire/GDP >200%) signaling potential 50% downside, while international equities (Europe, Canada, Australia) trade at reasonable prices and offer positive expected returns
“foreign stocks are perfectly reasonable. You will make a decent amount of money. But if you do that in the S&P, I think 50/50 you won't make any money at all”
90d +3.5% · 180d +3.5% · 1y +1.0%
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
2025-11-02
long DEEP VALUE STOCKS (CHEAPEST 20% GLOBALLY) / short GROWTH STOCKS (EXPENSIVE, HIGH-EXPECTATION NAMES)
pair
Jeremy Grantham · video
The value-growth valuation gap is at a top-percentile historical extreme and deep value sits at the 3rd percentile of cheapness—its cheapest since the 2000 bubble—making long value vs short growth one of the most compelling dislocations in decades
“the gap between value and growth is as big as it gets… emphasize value”
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
US equities are at the highest valuation in history by multiple measures (Shiller PE ~39, Wilshire 5000/GDP >200%), exceeding 1929 and approaching 2000 dotcom peak, making a 50%+ decline highly probable
“the market could easily go down by 50% and be well within its historical boundary”
90d -2.1% · 180d -6.1% · 1y -11.3%
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
Said again: 2026-01-19
2025-11-02
AI / AI-LINKED GROWTH STOCKS
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The most transformative and 'serious' new technologies historically guarantee the largest bubbles and crashes, making AI stocks especially prone to a collapse similar to NASDAQ's 82% drop in 2000
“the more serious a new technology is, the more guaranteed you are to have a bubble”
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
2025-11-02
DEEP VALUE STOCKS (US AND INTERNATIONAL)
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The value-versus-growth valuation gap is near an all-time record and deep value (cheapest 20% of stocks) sits in the 3rd percentile of cheapness historically, representing one of the most compelling dislocations in decades
“the gap between value and growth is as big as it gets, in the top few percentile of history”
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
Given extreme US market overvaluation and unknowable bubble burst timing, holding cash is the appropriate defensive positioning for risk-averse investors
“if you're feeling very nervous, I would have cash”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.8% · 1y +3.7%
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
2025-11-02
AI AND TECHNOLOGY GROWTH STOCKS
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The most transformative technologies historically produce the largest bubbles because their genuine promise attracts the most capital, making an AI-driven crash more, not less, certain—analogous to railroads, electrification, and the internet which each…
“The more serious a new technology is, the more guaranteed you are to have a bubble”
Grantham Says The Next Crash Will Be Like 1929
2025-07-10
International Dev
bullish
Jeremy Grantham · video
Non-US equity markets are not expensive today, just as they were cheap relative to the US in 2000, and would likely only fall 20% in sympathy if the US drops 50% before bouncing quickly, offering asymmetric upside
“If the US market were to drop 50%, it might go down 20% in sympathy but will bounce very quickly.”
90d +7.8% · 180d +14.3% · 1y +26.4%
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
Nvidia is the 'shovel seller' at the peak of an AI gold rush with no durable monopoly power, and as the Mag 7 increasingly compete head-to-head in AI, Nvidia's dominance will erode, making a 90%+ decline (as seen with Amazon post-dotcom) at minimum highly…
“It is the guy selling the shovels at the peak of the gold rush. They have no magical monopoly power in the end.”
90d -15.2% · 180d -14.1% · 1y -28.7%
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
2025-07-10
Big Tech
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The Mag 7's historically smooth returns were driven by each owning separate monopoly niches, but AI forces all seven to compete directly against each other for the first time, eroding margins and individual dominance going forward
“The history of the Mag 7 is divided into two halves...going forward they fight it out tooth and nail in AI.”
90d -10.2% · 180d -12.5% · 1y -31.2%
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
Extreme US equity overvaluation makes holding significant cash an attractive alternative, as history shows that in prior comparable bubble peaks cash outperformed equities for many years afterward
“If you're feeling very nervous, I would have cash or some blend of those two.”
90d +2.6% · 180d +3.5% · 1y +8.2%
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
With the US market at historically extreme valuations and multiple macro headwinds mounting, holding substantial cash preserves capital and optionality ahead of what Grantham expects to be a significant multi-year drawdown
“If you're feeling very nervous, I would have cash or some blend of those two.”
90d +1.0% · 180d +2.0% · 1y +3.8%
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
2025-07-10
MAGNIFICENT 7 (US MEGA-CAP TECH)
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
The Mag 7's historical moat came from individually owning separate domains, but AI forces all seven to compete head-to-head, destroying the low-competition profitability that justified their valuations
“increasingly they fight it out tooth and nail to see who is the biggest and best in AI”
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
2025-07-10
MAGNIFICENT 7 / LARGE-CAP US TECH BASKET
bearish
Jeremy Grantham · video
AI forces all seven Mag 7 companies to compete in the same arena for the first time, ending the era of distinct individual monopolies and introducing cutthroat competition that will make their paths far less smooth going forward
“increasingly they fight it out tooth and nail to see who is the biggest and best in AI”
Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble - and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash
2025-05-15
long VALUE STOCKS / short OVERPRICED GROWTH STOCKS
pair
video
The value-growth valuation spread is in the top few percentile of all history, making long cheap value stocks against short overpriced growth stocks a compelling mean-reversion trade with asymmetric payoff
“the gap between value and growth is as big as it gets. It's in the top few percentile of history”
2025-05-15
Quality Stocks
bullish
video
For US-constrained investors, high quality companies with low debt and high profit margins provide downside protection if the tariff war triggers a recession, because their margins can be squeezed without risking insolvency unlike leveraged peers
“High quality has less debt... you want to have high profit margins so they can be squeezed without sending you out of business”
90d +6.3% · 180d +11.0% · 1y +19.4%
Total market cap-to-GDP and similar long-horizon valuation metrics put the US market at or above historical peaks including 1929 and 2000, implying a 50% drawdown is within historical norms and a 10-year holding from current levels is roughly 50/50 to…
“if you do that in the S&P, I think 50-50, you won't make any money at all”
90d -9.5% · 180d -16.3% · 1y -26.6%
Said again: 2025-07-10 (Jeremy Grantham)
Showing the 60 most recent of 95 tracked stances.
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