Founder, EPB Macro Research
Economist
3 dated public stances tracked since 2023-01-16, most recently 2023-01-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Eric Basmajian's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Eric Basmajian is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2023-01-16 | long GOLD / short SPX | ratio | +0.0% | -6.0% | -7.7% |
| 2023-01-16 | SPX | bearish | -4.5% | -14.2% | -21.2% |
| 2023-01-16 | Long Dur Treasuries | bullish | -1.4% | -3.0% | -7.5% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2023-01-16 |
| SPX | 1 | | 1 bearish | 2023-01-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2023-01-16
long GOLD / short SPX
ratio
Michael Green · video
Stocks-to-gold ratio should decline in recession as stocks fall more than gold, making gold a top relative holding even if gold does not appreciate in absolute terms
“the ratio of stocks to gold should decline if my view on recession is correct”
90d +0.0% · 180d -6.0% · 1y -7.7%
Keeping it Simple | Ep.20: Secular, Cyclical... It's ll a fubar fugazi!
2023-01-16
SPX
bearish
Michael Green · video
Stocks are among the most mispriced he has ever seen given imminent recessionary conditions that the market refuses to price in until confirmed by lagging employment data
“stocks are among the most mispriced I've ever seen going back you know for historical data”
90d -4.5% · 180d -14.2% · 1y -21.2%
Keeping it Simple | Ep.20: Secular, Cyclical... It's ll a fubar fugazi!
2023-01-16
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Michael Green · video
Fed will be forced to cut earlier and deeper than priced-in as recession arrives imminently, with secular debt and demographic forces pulling rates back toward zero over the medium term — making 5s, 10s, and 30s all expressions of the same trade
“rates going to be zero or close to zero as a result of cyclical recessionary pressures”
90d -1.4% · 180d -3.0% · 1y -7.5%
Keeping it Simple | Ep.20: Secular, Cyclical... It's ll a fubar fugazi!
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