Investors / stance tracking
What Sven Carlin is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, Sven Carlin Research Platform
15 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-20, most recently 2026-09-19. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Sven Carlin's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Sven Carlin is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
11
themes
0
side flips
2026-09-19
last heard
Returns 90d +1.6% 44% correct · 9 calls · 180d +7.2% 56% correct · 9 calls · 1y +17.1% 67% correct · 9 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-14 | SPX | bearish | -5.3% | -4.2% | -17.5% |
| 2025-10-14 | COPPER | bullish | +19.5% | +19.3% | +28.6% |
| 2025-10-14 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +8.5% | +35.5% | +55.8% |
| 2025-10-14 | BABA | bearish | -2.1% | +21.4% | +31.1% |
| 2024-12-21 | LITHIUM | bullish | -3.8% | -13.8% | +56.9% |
| 2024-12-20 | short WMT / long AMZN | pair | -3.2% | -4.6% | -10.8% |
| 2024-12-20 | USTS | bullish | +3.3% | +3.7% | +7.8% |
| 2024-12-20 | SPX | bearish | +4.3% | -1.4% | -17.2% |
| 2024-12-20 | ADM | bullish | -6.8% | +9.2% | +19.1% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 3 | 3 bearish | 2026-09-10 | |
| AAPL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-09-19 | |
| ADM | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-12-20 | |
| ASIAN FOOD DIVIDEND STOCKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-10-14 | |
| BABA | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-10-14 | |
| BRK | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-09-10 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Apple's current price of ~$348 is nearly 3x Carlin's DCF intrinsic value of ~$128 (at a 10% required return), making the risk/reward unacceptable for his financial goals
“I simply don't invest in Apple. I'm not taking that risk.”
Ben Felix Is Mostly Right, But Where He Isn't Is Extremely Dangerous!!!
Current US equity valuations (P/E ~41 vs historical ~9) and 1% dividend yield leave no return cushion, and a potential multi-decade interest-rate cycle turn could produce negative real returns of 7–8% annually per GMO's forecast
“if you look at current valuations for real profits and returns, you can expect seven, eight negative yearly real returns”
Easy ETF Index Funds Set And Forget Investing Strategy For Next 10 to 20 Years!
2026-09-10
BRK
bullish
MOI Global · video
Berkshire is the least-bad equity option because ~40% of its balance sheet is cash and it has minimal AI exposure, giving it downside protection that the S&P 500 lacks at current valuations
“Is it safer than the S&P 500? Yes, it has much more cash, has little AI exposure”
Easy ETF Index Funds Set And Forget Investing Strategy For Next 10 to 20 Years!
2026-09-10
REAL ESTATE
bearish
MOI Global · video
Slowing global population growth reduces structural demand while elevated interest rates suppress affordability, keeping real estate returns poor
“Less people, real estate with higher rates stay ugly”
Easy ETF Index Funds Set And Forget Investing Strategy For Next 10 to 20 Years!
2025-10-14
long SPX / long SPX
hedge
Wealthion · video
Allocate 5% of portfolio to S&P 500 puts to cap downside from a potential 50-60% drawdown in overvalued large-cap tech without sacrificing all upside if the market continues higher
“for 5% of your portfolio, you can buy a put on the S&P 500 and you can't lose money”
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
PE of 30 vs historical sub-20, dividend yield of 1.2% vs historical 4%, with over 50% of recent gains attributable to multiple expansion rather than real earnings growth — unsustainable and historically precedes lost decades
“with a dividend yield of 1%, I just don't want to be on that side of the bet”
90d -5.3% · 180d -4.2% · 1y -17.5%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
Long-term Asian demand growth structurally supports copper prices, but single-mine political risk in Chile/Indonesia makes individual miners dangerous; a copper ETF captures the commodity upside while diversifying away expropriation risk
“if something happens in Indonesia and copper prices go up that business goes down but everybody else gains on higher prices”
90d +19.5% · 180d +19.3% · 1y +28.6%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
Trimmed a significant long position built when cheap because fundamentals are flat while the stock now reflects AI hype and promises of future investment rather than cash-flow growth, while China geopolitical risks remain unchanged
“the fundamentals haven't moved... it's all lying on promises on AI and they have actually lowered their cash flows promising investments in AI”
90d -2.1% · 180d +21.4% · 1y +31.1%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
ASIAN FOOD DIVIDEND STOCKS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Cheap food businesses in Asia with 6-8% dividend yields provide fundamental cash-flow returns insulated from currency debasement risk and allow redeployment into distressed assets if market turmoil materializes
“if I have a dividend yield on food stocks of 6, 7%, 8%... I can use that cash flow and buy things on the cheap if and when the turmoil happens”
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Defensive Dutch spice/food trading business with 200-year history, ~€800M market cap, 6% dividend yield, and 8% annual earnings growth over 10 years — cash-flow returns regardless of economic conditions or AI disruption
“such a boring business, nobody is watching that... it pays a dividend yield of 6% and earnings over the last 10 years have been growing at 8%”
90d +8.5% · 180d +35.5% · 1y +55.8%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
Behavioral psychology shows that assets forgotten after a mania — like lithium after the EV/battery hype — are oversold beyond fundamentals as investors panic-capitulate, creating a contrarian entry opportunity
“two years ago everyone was crazy about lithium... now the craziness is for AI and Bitcoin — lithium has already reverted”
90d -3.8% · 180d -13.8% · 1y +56.9%
Market Recap: Insights From Felix Zulauf, Sven Carlin, Cem Karsan, and EJ Antoni
2024-12-20
short WMT / long AMZN
pair
Wealthion · video
Walmart trades at 40x P/E versus Amazon at 30x despite Amazon having far superior growth prospects and business quality, creating a clear relative-value short Walmart / long Amazon pair
“Walmart is trading at a p ratio of 40 while Amazon is trading at a p ratio of 30”
90d -3.2% · 180d -4.6% · 1y -10.8%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
US equities at P/E 30 — second-most-expensive in history — offer only a 1% yield against a 50% crash risk if rates normalize to 5%, making long exposure recklessly asymmetric
“the risks of just being long is crazy especially when people have their pension fund invested in markets”
90d +4.3% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -17.2%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
Post-food-inflation sentiment reversal has pushed Archer Daniels Midland to a 10% free cash flow yield with a 50-year dividend growth streak, creating a deep-value entry after investor capitulation
“Archer Daniel Midland trading at 10% free cash flow yields and a dividend that has been growing for 50 years”
90d -6.8% · 180d +9.2% · 1y +19.1%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
4% risk-free T-bill yield with zero downside offers clearly superior risk/reward versus S&P 500's 1% yield and 50% crash potential at current valuations
“with the 4% free month treasury you cannot lose”
90d +3.3% · 180d +3.7% · 1y +7.8%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
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