Investors / stance tracking
What Sven Carlin is saying
Founder, Sven Carlin Research Platform
11 dated public stances tracked since 2024-12-20, most recently 2025-10-14. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Sven Carlin's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Sven Carlin is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2025-10-14
last heard
Returns 90d +1.4% (n=11) · 180d +0.9% (n=11) · 1y +10.6% (n=7)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-10-14 | |
| ADM | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-12-20 | |
| ASIAN FOOD DIVIDEND STOCKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-10-14 | |
| BABA | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-10-14 | |
| COPPER | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-10-14 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-10-14 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-10-14
COPPER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Long-term Asian demand growth structurally supports copper prices, but single-mine political risk in Chile/Indonesia makes individual miners dangerous; a copper ETF captures the commodity upside while diversifying away expropriation risk
“if something happens in Indonesia and copper prices go up that business goes down but everybody else gains on higher prices”
90d +19.5% · 180d +19.3%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
BABA
bearish
Wealthion · video
Trimmed a significant long position built when cheap because fundamentals are flat while the stock now reflects AI hype and promises of future investment rather than cash-flow growth, while China geopolitical risks remain unchanged
“the fundamentals haven't moved... it's all lying on promises on AI and they have actually lowered their cash flows promising investments in AI”
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
ASIAN FOOD DIVIDEND STOCKS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Cheap food businesses in Asia with 6-8% dividend yields provide fundamental cash-flow returns insulated from currency debasement risk and allow redeployment into distressed assets if market turmoil materializes
“if I have a dividend yield on food stocks of 6, 7%, 8%... I can use that cash flow and buy things on the cheap if and when the turmoil happens”
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Defensive Dutch spice/food trading business with 200-year history, ~€800M market cap, 6% dividend yield, and 8% annual earnings growth over 10 years — cash-flow returns regardless of economic conditions or AI disruption
“such a boring business, nobody is watching that... it pays a dividend yield of 6% and earnings over the last 10 years have been growing at 8%”
90d +8.5% · 180d +35.5%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
PE of 30 vs historical sub-20, dividend yield of 1.2% vs historical 4%, with over 50% of recent gains attributable to multiple expansion rather than real earnings growth — unsustainable and historically precedes lost decades
“with a dividend yield of 1%, I just don't want to be on that side of the bet”
90d -5.3% · 180d -4.2%
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2025-10-14
long SPX / long SPX
hedge
Wealthion · video
Allocate 5% of portfolio to S&P 500 puts to cap downside from a potential 50-60% drawdown in overvalued large-cap tech without sacrificing all upside if the market continues higher
“for 5% of your portfolio, you can buy a put on the S&P 500 and you can't lose money”
Sven Carlin: Value Investing’s Big Comeback Amid the AI Frenzy | Avoiding Risk Beats Chasing Returns
2024-12-21
LITHIUM
bullish
Wealthion · video
Behavioral psychology shows that assets forgotten after a mania — like lithium after the EV/battery hype — are oversold beyond fundamentals as investors panic-capitulate, creating a contrarian entry opportunity
“two years ago everyone was crazy about lithium... now the craziness is for AI and Bitcoin — lithium has already reverted”
90d -3.8% · 180d -13.8% · 1y +56.9%
Market Recap: Insights From Felix Zulauf, Sven Carlin, Cem Karsan, and EJ Antoni
2024-12-20
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
US equities at P/E 30 — second-most-expensive in history — offer only a 1% yield against a 50% crash risk if rates normalize to 5%, making long exposure recklessly asymmetric
“the risks of just being long is crazy especially when people have their pension fund invested in markets”
90d +4.3% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -17.2%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
2024-12-20
ADM
bullish
Wealthion · video
Post-food-inflation sentiment reversal has pushed Archer Daniels Midland to a 10% free cash flow yield with a 50-year dividend growth streak, creating a deep-value entry after investor capitulation
“Archer Daniel Midland trading at 10% free cash flow yields and a dividend that has been growing for 50 years”
90d -6.8% · 180d +9.2% · 1y +19.1%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
2024-12-20
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
4% risk-free T-bill yield with zero downside offers clearly superior risk/reward versus S&P 500's 1% yield and 50% crash potential at current valuations
“with the 4% free month treasury you cannot lose”
90d +3.3% · 180d +3.7% · 1y +7.8%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
2024-12-20
short WMT / long AMZN
pair
Wealthion · video
Walmart trades at 40x P/E versus Amazon at 30x despite Amazon having far superior growth prospects and business quality, creating a clear relative-value short Walmart / long Amazon pair
“Walmart is trading at a p ratio of 40 while Amazon is trading at a p ratio of 30”
90d -3.2% · 180d -4.6% · 1y -10.8%
Warren Buffett Has Sold Everything He Can: Bear Market Looms? | Sven Carlin
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