Author, The Monetary Frontier
4 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-12, most recently 2025-10-08. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of George Robertson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. George Robertson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|
| 2025-10-08 | SPX | bearish | -3.1% | +1.5% | -16.2% |
| 2024-11-12 | SPX | bullish | +1.7% | -1.7% | +15.9% |
| 2024-11-12 | BITCOIN | bullish | +10.5% | +18.2% | +15.4% |
| 2024-08-12 | SPX | bullish | +12.6% | +14.2% | +22.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances —
bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SPX —
bullish2024-11-12 →
bearish2025-10-08 Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|
| SPX | 3 | | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-10-08 |
| BITCOIN | 1 | | 1 bullish | 2024-11-12 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-10-08
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Massive fiscal tightening from tariffs (~$200-300B corporate tax drag) plus DOGE job cuts have caused a ~4 percentage-point NGDP drop in roughly three months; corporate profits have already hit a wall and tariff-adjusted profits show a ~10% decline, while…
“the door is already shut and I would say even to be a little abrasive that you're pretty foolish to be long equity right now”
90d -3.1% · 180d +1.5% · 1y -16.2%
The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson
2024-11-12
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Absent effective monetary policy combined with persistent ~$3.5T annual fiscal spend has put nominal GDP on a 'moonshot' with no mean-reversion mechanism, pushing equity markets into a Minsky speculative phase that still has room to extend toward 7,000+…
“I think if we enter a Mania um and it will be a Mania... 7,000 plus some unmentionable number”
90d +1.7% · 180d -1.7% · 1y +15.9%
The Stock Market Melt Up Is About To Accelerate | George Robertson
2024-11-12
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Liquid risk assets like Bitcoin are direct beneficiaries of the nominal GDP moonshot driven by fiscal dominance, and a Trump administration legitimizing crypto removes a remaining overhang
“you see this of course in more liquid assets um like Bitcoin... and certainly the equity markets”
90d +10.5% · 180d +18.2% · 1y +15.4%
The Stock Market Melt Up Is About To Accelerate | George Robertson
2024-08-12
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal deficit spending remains at historically high levels while the Fed has effectively disconnected from monetary policy transmission since 2014, so the market's residual discount from anticipated Fed tightening will close and equities will rise to reflect…
“I still have a very positive view on S&P 500”
90d +12.6% · 180d +14.2% · 1y +22.0%
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison
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