Investors / stance tracking
What Mike Wilson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChief US Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley
29 dated public stances tracked since 2026-03-20, most recently 2026-10-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Mike Wilson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Mike Wilson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
29
tracked stances
23
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-27
last heard
Returns 90d +2.8% 80% correct · 5 calls · 180d -0.8% 60% correct · 5 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +12.2% | +4.9% | — |
| 2026-03-20 | GOLD | bearish | +6.4% | +5.2% | — |
| 2026-03-20 | ENERGY | bearish | +8.8% | -9.4% | — |
| 2026-03-20 | Big Tech | bearish | -27.4% | -21.4% | — |
| 2026-03-20 | BANKS | bullish | +14.3% | +16.7% | — |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2026-09-09 → bullish2026-10-27
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDUSTRIALS | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-13 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-27 | |
| AI ADOPTER COMPANIES (SOFTWARE / CLOUD MARGIN EXPANSION) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-13 | |
| AI ADOPTERS (SOFTWARE/APPLICATIONS USING AI TO EXPAND MARGINS) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-13 | |
| AI ADOPTERS (VS ENABLERS) | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-13 | |
| AI ADOPTERS / SOFTWARE AND ENTERPRISE TECH | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-27
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Bloomberg TV (uncut) · uncut_tv
The 10-year yield has reached and reacted from his 5.35% target, signaling rates have peaked at the back end, while an expected Fed pivot to adding liquidity into year-end provides further upside for duration
“I think rates have probably peaked at the back end”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-27 07:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-27 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-27
US CYCLICALS / BROADENING TRADE
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Cyclicals beginning to outperform alongside defensives signals breadth recovery is not cascading into something severe, and the broadening trade re-engaging alongside AI is the mechanism to propel the S&P to $8,000+
“It's not one or the other, both working together like earlier in the year”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-27 15:05 ET (5 min)
2026-10-20
long AI ADOPTERS / SOFTWARE COMPANIES USING AI
pair
CNBC (uncut) · wrong_show
The AI trade is rotating from infrastructure enablers (semis, power) whose best days are behind them to actual technology adopters whose revenue growth and profitability benefits will drive market excitement in 2027.
“what the market is going to get excited about next year is the actual users of this technology”
CNBC live 2026-10-20 06:16–07:16 ET (recorded in error as Morning Call)
2026-10-20
AI ADOPTERS / SOFTWARE AND ENTERPRISE TECH
bullish
Mike Wilson (newest) · video
With AI infrastructure buildout largely complete, market excitement will rotate toward companies that are actual users of the technology showing better revenue growth and profitability, rather than the semiconductor and power enablers that led the prior phase.
“the market's going to get excited about next year is the actual users of this technology leading to better revenue growth and profitability”
We're in the 'final innings' of the market correction, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Earnings revisions remain positive, these are high-ROIC businesses with strong backlogs that perform well in mid-cycle transitions away from early-cycle winners
“health care, industrial, and kept goods is an area we've focused on lately because the revisions there are still quite good”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-13 08:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Mike Wilson (newest)), 2026-10-13 (Bloomberg Surveillance), 2026-10-13 (Mike Wilson (newest))
2026-10-13
LARGE-CAP FINANCIALS
bullish
Bloomberg TV (uncut) · uncut_tv
Large-cap financials down 20-30% from highs are showing value as the early-cycle correction is well advanced and quality names within the sector are outperforming
“the larger cap financials, which are down 20%, 30%. I mean, these are starting to show some value”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-13 08:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Mike Wilson (newest)), 2026-10-13 (Mike Wilson (newest))
Semis remain commodity-like and are an early-cycle group; historical analog with silver stocks suggests the correction still has a final leg to new lows before becoming attractive
“they're going to now make a new low. That also is part of the adjustment process”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-13 08:00 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-13 (Bloomberg Surveillance), 2026-10-13 (Mike Wilson (newest))
Goldman Sachs specifically called out as a large-cap financial that has de-rated meaningfully from highs and is starting to show value in the mid-cycle rotation back to quality
“Goldman being one of them”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-13 08:00 ET (30 min)
2026-10-13
AI ADOPTERS (VS ENABLERS)
bullish
Bloomberg TV (uncut) · uncut_tv
Technology has become usable enough that companies deploying AI to expand margins will drive the next leg of the trade, shifting leadership from hardware enablers to software and enterprise adopters
“next year is about the adopters… companies are now using this technology to expand margins”
Bloomberg TV uncut 2026-10-13 08:00 ET (30 min)
2026-10-13
LARGE-CAP US FINANCIALS
bullish
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Large-cap financials are down 20-30% from highs and starting to show value as the early-cycle correction becomes advanced and quality reasserts as the midcycle factor
“the larger cap financials which are down 20 30%. I mean these are starting to show some value.”
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/13/2026
2026-10-13
AI ADOPTERS (SOFTWARE/APPLICATIONS USING AI TO EXPAND MARGINS)
bullish
Mike Wilson (newest) · video
AI has crossed a mainstream usability threshold, shifting market leadership from infrastructure-capex enablers to companies actually deploying AI to grow margins — Wilson calls this the defining trade for next year.
“I think next year is about the adopters”
Morgan Stanley's Wilson on Midterm Elections, Fed Policy, Bond Volatility
2026-10-13
SOX
bearish
Mike Wilson (newest) · video
Semis face a double headwind — still completing the early-to-mid-cycle rotation selloff AND the CapEx cycle shifting spend from enablers to adopters — pointing to a new leg lower before a bottom.
“I think these stocks look like they're going to now make a new low. That also is part of the adjustment process.”
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
2026-10-13
AI ADOPTER COMPANIES (SOFTWARE / CLOUD MARGIN EXPANSION)
bullish
Mike Wilson (newest) · video
CapEx cycle is transitioning from infrastructure enablers to AI adopters as companies begin deploying AI for margin expansion, making adopter stocks next year's outperformers.
“Next year's about the adopters — companies are now using this technology to expand margin.”
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
2026-09-09
long CASH / long ENERGY
hedge
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Own quality/FCF-factor equities for earnings-driven upside while holding energy stocks as an explicit hedge, because crack spreads on refined products are at record highs and demand destruction has not arrived, pointing to further oil-price appreciation
“owning some energy on the other side as your hedge against oil prices going up”
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says We're Still in a Bull Market
2026-09-09
long SPX / short SPX
pair
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Long US equities over foreign markets because the US is insulated from oil and geopolitical risk, retains control of fiscal and monetary levers, and hosts the highest-quality equity market in the world
“S&P 500 is still the highest quality equity market in the world”
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says We're Still in a Bull Market
2026-09-09
long GOLD / long Crypto Other
basket
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Gold and crypto are complementary portfolio hedges against inflation breaking out of bounds and against potential liquidity tightening from heavy sovereign and corporate issuance in 2027
“gold and crypto are probably good hedges against inflation getting out of bounds”
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says We're Still in a Bull Market
2026-09-09
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Long bonds have been a structural train wreck for five years and Wilson maintains an explicit underweight-duration posture in fixed income because rate pressure has not abated
“long bonds have been a train wreck for 5 years”
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says We're Still in a Bull Market
2026-09-09
Ai Infra
bullish
Bloomberg Surveillance · video
Hyperscalers were unfairly punished because they are both enablers and adopters of AI; those deploying the technology to lift returns will re-rate as the transition from enablers to adopters accelerates
“hyperscalers got too punished. These guys are enablers and adopters”
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says We're Still in a Bull Market
The new Fed chair Kevin Walsh is reducing forward guidance, forcing markets to price uncertainty themselves, producing a higher-volatility adjustment period that caps near-term upside even as the market eventually stabilises
“we're in that adjustment period now and that's going to be higher volatility and potentially the bond market”
Qatari LNG Tanker Reportedly Struck in Hormuz | Horizons Middle East & Africa 7/7/2026
After a massive run gold may be relatively overvalued versus stocks, which could now be the better inflation hedge for at least a cyclical period, especially as central banks liquidate gold for liquidity needs.
“maybe stocks are the better hedge against inflation from here at least for a period of time”
90d +6.4% · 180d +5.2%
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Small caps are coming out of a multi-year rolling recession with improving earnings revisions and historically wide valuation discounts to large caps, and the S&P 600's higher quality screen reduces risk versus Russell 2000.
“I still favor S&P 600 as opposed to the Russell 2000”
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Regional banks have been left behind relative to money-center banks and alternative managers, making them attractively valued as part of the broader cyclical recovery.
“the regional banks, for example, as opposed to just the money centers”
90d +14.3% · 180d +16.7%
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
2026-03-20
Big Tech
bearish
Meb Faber · video
Hyperscalers are shifting from equity-funded to debt-funded AI capex, transforming from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses, which increases equity risk and signals the beginning of the end for the AI capex bubble similar to telecom in the late 1990s.
“you start layering out debt...all of a sudden you start looking at that equity slice and you're like, whoa, wait a minute”
90d -27.4% · 180d -21.4%
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Energy stocks rallied ahead of the Iran conflict and the oil price spike is likely temporary given global economic pressure to resolve the Strait of Hormuz disruption, making the trade less attractive on a forward basis.
“I think you want to kind of fade energy a little bit and go back to some of the materials and metals”
90d +8.8% · 180d -9.4%
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
2026-03-20
BIOTECH
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Biotech looks cheap relative to defensives like staples, M&A activity is supported by deregulation, and AI-enabled drug discovery offers a compelling long-term growth catalyst despite recent underperformance.
“biotech is still pretty exciting because there you can have drug discovery through this new technology”
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Manufacturing has been in an elongated recession for 3+ years and is now recovering, supported by CapEx incentives from fiscal policy and improving demand-supply dynamics.
“the manufacturing sectors, industrials, some of the financials that have been left behind”
90d +12.2% · 180d +4.9%
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
2026-03-20
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SMALL CAPS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Small-cap consumer discretionary businesses are emerging from a prolonged recession and stand to benefit from deregulation, pent-up demand, and eventual Fed rate cuts.
“consumer discretionary I think is an area where there's a lot of small cap businesses that are going to get a bit of a lift”
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
2026-03-20
METALS AND MATERIALS
bullish
Meb Faber · video
Metals and materials offer better risk/reward than energy in the current environment, as the oil price spike from the Iran conflict is likely temporary while the underlying commodity cycle recovery continues.
“I think you want to kind of fade energy a little bit and go back to some of the materials and metals”
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
2026-03-20
AI-DISRUPTED SOFTWARE / BUSINESS SERVICES STOCKS
bearish
Meb Faber · video
Software and business services companies face genuine earnings risk as AI disintermediates their labor-intensive models, and markets have begun pricing this disruption with the stocks being punished.
“AI disruption on labor in various parts of the market. Those stocks have been punished for that concern”
The Market Is Entering a New Cycle - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
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