Investors / stance tracking
What Brad Gerstner is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & CEO, Altimeter Capital
54 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-09, most recently 2026-10-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Brad Gerstner's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Brad Gerstner is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
54
tracked stances
39
themes
3
side flips
2026-10-21
last heard
Returns 90d +14.8% 50% correct · 20 calls · 180d +9.5% 50% correct · 20 calls · 1y +24.4% 63% correct · 19 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | GOOGL | bearish | -18.9% | -42.9% | — |
| 2025-10-31 | MSFT | bullish | -16.1% | -17.7% | -1.3% |
| 2025-10-14 | META | bullish | -9.3% | -10.3% | +4.4% |
| 2025-09-26 | NVDA | bullish | +6.9% | +0.3% | +28.7% |
| 2025-07-10 | META | bullish | -1.2% | -9.0% | -7.7% |
| 2025-05-22 | long NVDA / long AMD | basket | +40.6% | +72.3% | +192.2% |
| 2025-04-24 | SPX | bearish | -16.4% | -23.5% | -32.1% |
| 2025-04-04 | CRWV | owns | +245.5% | +186.6% | +69.3% |
| 2025-03-21 | NVDA | bullish | +22.2% | +44.7% | +49.3% |
| 2025-03-02 | Big Tech | bearish | -5.4% | -15.1% | -23.0% |
| 2025-03-02 | AAPL | bearish | +15.1% | +2.2% | -11.7% |
| 2025-01-23 | USTS | bullish | +3.2% | +4.9% | +8.0% |
| 2025-01-23 | NFLX | bullish | +6.6% | +20.8% | -12.6% |
| 2024-11-21 | TGT | bearish | -8.5% | +17.7% | +24.8% |
| 2024-11-21 | SNOW | bullish | +8.9% | +6.7% | +36.6% |
| 2024-11-21 | NVDA | bullish | -5.1% | -8.4% | +22.0% |
| 2024-10-31 | GOOGL | bullish | +14.3% | -6.2% | +65.1% |
| 2024-10-13 | ARM | bullish | -15.3% | -35.7% | +6.3% |
| 2024-08-09 | NVDA | bullish | +42.1% | +19.2% | +73.9% |
| 2024-08-09 | Big Tech | bearish | -14.2% | -17.3% | -27.9% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Big Tech — bearish2025-03-02 → bullish2026-10-15
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 5 | 5 bullish | 2026-09-17 | |
| Big Tech | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-10-15 | |
| CRWV | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-21 | |
| GOOGL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-11-07 | |
| META | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-10-14 | |
| SPACEX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-21
long SPACEX / long TSLA
basket
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Owning both SpaceX and Tesla offers exposure to a potential combination that could give Elon Musk the scale and capital needed to lead in superintelligence infrastructure.
“As somebody who owns shares in both companies, they need—he wants to get scale now.”
Squawk Box — 2026-10-21 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
2026-10-21
long SPACEX / short US WIRELESS CARRIERS
pair
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
SpaceX should gain wireless-market share at the expense of incumbent US carriers because Starlink's improving coverage will attract rapid adoption and force legacy telecom discount rates higher and multiples lower.
“We are all going to be switching.”
Squawk Box — 2026-10-21 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
2026-10-21
SPACEX
bullish
Brad Gerstner (newest) · video
SpaceX will represent ~25% of all US compute capacity brought online in 2027 at 10 GW, giving it unmatched scale in the superintelligence race — and whoever has the most scale in capital, compute, and data wins
“Whoever has the most scale capital compute and data wins the game of superintelligence”
Altimeter's Brad Gerstner on Super Intelligence: Whoever has the most scale wins the game
Said again: 2026-10-21 (CNBC Fast Money Final Trade)
Subscale neo-clouds face a financing disadvantage versus hyperscale players like SpaceX/xAI because lenders must apply a risk premium to uncertain forward demand and collateral (GPUs or custom ASICs) with no alternative use, while larger players can borrow…
“The problem is they're subscale relative to SpaceX”
Altimeter's Brad Gerstner on Super Intelligence: Whoever has the most scale wins the game
2026-10-21
AT
bearish
Brad Gerstner (newest) · video
Starlink will penetrate the US carrier market with fast diffusion, forcing discount rates up and multiples down on legacy telecoms regardless of near-term earnings quality, because the market is correctly pricing a structural disruption to their business.
“The market doesn't really care about what your earnings are today. They're saying there's this massive disruption coming to your business”
Squawk Pod: Musk floats mega-merger, United CEO on airfares & fuel - 10/21/26 | Audio Only
2026-10-21
Ai Infra
bullish
CNBC Fast Money Final Trade · video
AI-compute demand remains unconstrained while wafer-production and power limitations restrict supply, allowing the buildout’s upside to continue despite recurring glut predictions.
“Today we have unconstrained demand for super intelligence and we have limited supply.”
CNBC Squawk Box with Brad Gerstner - October 21st, 2026
AT&T faces multiple compression as Starlink's rapidly improving coverage and expected widespread adoption increase the probability of major disruption to incumbent wireless carriers.
“We are all going to be switching.”
CNBC Squawk Box with Brad Gerstner - October 21st, 2026
CoreWeave's debt structure is misunderstood—only 20% is at the elevated public rate while 80% is cheaper GPU-secured debt, and the team and NVIDIA partnerships position it as a surviving neo-cloud hyperscaler
“if you put a gun to my head today and you said buy yourself a core weave, I'm a buyer”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-15 12:01 ET (30 min)
2026-10-15
ANTHROPIC IPO
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Anthropic revenues are accelerating with Jensen Huang expecting at least 2x growth next year, recursive AI loops are compounding capability, and the IPO is likely to see over $500B in demand
“I suspect you would have over $500 billion demand for this offering”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-15 12:01 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-21 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-15
Big Tech
bullish
CNBC Halftime Committee · video
AI revenues have dramatically outpaced expectations and current price consolidation is a buying opportunity given strong conviction on 2027-28 AI growth acceleration
“I'm seeing prices come in and start to get enticing again”
The AI trade in focus: Altimeter's Brad Gerstner joins 'Halftime Report' live in San Francisco
Nvidia trades at only 14x next year's fully-taxed GAAP earnings — well below its historical average multiple — while semiconductors capture hyperscaler AI capex nearly dollar-for-dollar as free cash flow, making the valuation argument compelling rather than…
“Nvidia trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed gap earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000”
Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem
Said again: 2026-10-15 (Bg2 Pod), 2026-10-21 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-21 (Brad Gerstner (newest)), 2026-10-21 (Brad Gerstner (newest))
Semiconductor companies are capturing hyperscaler AI capex almost dollar-for-dollar as free cash flow, driving 70% of NASDAQ returns, while the sector's multiples remain below historical averages — the AI super-cycle is an earnings story, not multiple…
“Semiconductors are 70% of the NASDAQ's return... Their capex is almost dollar for dollar free cash flow to the infrastructure companies”
Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem
2026-08-08
AI/SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
owns
All-In Podcast · video
The July selloff in semi and AI-related stocks driven by fears that Chinese open-source would undercut frontier lab revenues was excessive panic—US frontier labs continue to gain wallet share—creating a buyable dislocation
“we put in the Leopold bottom hopefully in July... I literally bought the bottom”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-08-08
FIGMA
owns
All-In Podcast · video
Figma has a great founder-led team and passionate user base that will successfully transition to an AI-first product, differentiating it from no-code SaaS peers facing existential disruption from LLM coding tools
“I bought some Figma... I'd put Figma in that bucket”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-07-11
SPACEX
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
SpaceX IPO was textbook execution at 1.75T / 35B forward revenue, now up 25% and still a compounder with 30%+ revenue growth ahead, leaving significant meat on the bone at current 2T valuation
“I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on Open AI”
More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
Said again: 2026-08-08 (All-In Podcast)
2026-07-06
SOX
bullish
CNBC Television · video
Anthropic and OpenAI revenue is growing at the fastest pace ever seen in technology history, validating the $1.2T annual capex cycle, and remains the single most important driver of the entire AI trade in equities
“It's the single most important thing in the market. I don't see that. I don't expect that to continue [declining].”
Squawk Pod: Trump Accounts launch: Brad Gerstner - 07/06/26 | Audio Only
2026-06-11
AI COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE (HYPERSCALERS + NEOCLOUDS)
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
2027 global AI capex is tracking toward $1.5T (vs Morgan Stanley's $1.1T estimate) while inference revenue approaches $300B with 60-70% gross margins and monetization per gigawatt is rising from ~$20B to $40B+ — making the capital cycle self-funding and…
“the world underestimated AI revenues and underestimated the amount of compute that was going to be needed”
The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang
2026-06-07
NEUROBOTICS (PRIVATE EUROPEAN LOGISTICS ROBOTICS COMPANY)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Neurobotics is an AI-powered logistics robotics company based in Germany with $100M in revenue that is quietly scaling with strong backing, benefiting from the broader AI-driven automation wave outside of overvalued Silicon Valley names
“Quiet company, big investors, 100 million revenue, kicking ass”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
SIERRA (BRETT TAYLOR'S AI AGENT COMPANY, PRIVATE)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Sierra is building agent-native sales, marketing, and customer service software and could be acquired by large tech players seeking to accelerate into agentic AI, providing upside beyond organic revenue growth
“They're building basically Salesforce agent native”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
PRIVATE MARKET SECONDARIES / LATE-STAGE PRIVATE COMPANIES
owns
All-In Podcast · video
Secondary market volume is at record highs and now trading at a premium (106 cents on the dollar), making late-stage private secondaries a legitimate and liquid asset class competing with IPOs and M&A as exit mechanisms
“We are selling into this...if you can go sell a slice at 4 or 5x and we get DPI, then go sell some of it”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
LEVERED ETFS ON SPACEX IPO
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
The proliferation of 14 leveraged ETFs planned for the SpaceX IPO day is a sentiment signal indicating the market is near a top, not a bottom, suggesting caution on high-beta tech exposure at current valuations
“There are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO...this just tells me we may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-04-10
OPENAI (SECONDARY MARKET)
owns
video
Peak OpenAI FUD is now — Spud model previews show it is competitive with Anthropic Mythos, the company is firmly on the AI wave, and the TAM for intelligence is larger than anything seen in prior investing careers, making the secondary shares a buy despite…
“I'm a buyer of the shares today. Notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe, I think these companies are firmly on the wave.”
Google's 10-blue-links search advertising model—which generates over 100% of profits—is structurally at odds with AI delivering direct answers, posing a fundamental 5-7 year challenge even as near-term results remain fine.
“if you ask me fundamentally over the course of the next five to seven years I think it's a challenge for Google”
90d -18.9% · 180d -42.9%
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
INTERNET TRAVEL/BOOKING INTERMEDIARIES (BOOKING.COM, EXPEDIA)
bearish
Chase Coleman · video
AI agents will disintermediate OTAs and booking platforms by completing transactions directly rather than routing traffic to third-party sites, destroying the 15-20% toll-collecting model that sat in Google's underbelly.
“whoever the winners were in your app ecosystem, they're suspect”
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
OPENAI (PRIVATE)
bullish
Chase Coleman · video
ChatGPT holds massive scale advantages in compute and data as the consumer AI winner, and the consumer AI market is the largest AI market opportunity over the next 5-10 years.
“Chat GPT is the winner in consumer AI...the biggest market in AI over the course of the next 5 to 10 years”
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
Market misattributes net negative value to Microsoft's OpenAI exposure by focusing on consolidated losses while ignoring the Azure exclusivity, ongoing revshare, royalty-free frontier-model IP access, and $130B equity stake—all of which represent deeply…
“the market may even be attributing negative value because of the losses”
90d -16.1% · 180d -17.7% · 1y -1.3%
2025-10-31
AI COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
video
Demand for AI compute continues to vastly outstrip supply for at least the next 2–3 years—confirmed by Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI all reporting they are supply-constrained—making the multi-trillion dollar capex buildout a high-conviction secular…
“not enough compute, not enough compute, not enough compute”
2025-10-31
TRADITIONAL SAAS SOFTWARE
bearish
video
AI agents replace the business-logic tier in SaaS applications, shifting value accrual away from legacy software companies toward the AI token-factory layer (compute and models), threatening multiples that already trade below their 10-year average despite an…
“maybe the agents or the software will acrue a little bit less of the value in the future than they've accured in the past”
Meta's elevated CapEx (back to ~66% of FCF) is fundamentally different from the Reality Labs era because AI spend is visibly translating into earnings growth without proportional headcount increases, giving investors a concrete ROI they now understand and…
“As an investor, let me just tell you my own perspective. The reason Meta's stock's doing great... investors understand it and believe in it”
90d -9.3% · 180d -10.3% · 1y +4.4%
AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Said again: 2025-11-07 (Chase Coleman)
NVDA's competitive moat is increasing — annual cadence, supply chain locked three years forward, co-design complexity unreplicable by ASIC newcomers — yet sell-side consensus prices in only 8% revenue growth 2027-2030 and the multiple sits below ecosystem…
“Is there any conceivable world in your mind where your top line in 5 years isn't two or 3x bigger”
90d +6.9% · 180d +0.3% · 1y +28.7%
NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Said again: 2025-10-10 (All-In Podcast), 2025-10-14 (Bg2 Pod), 2025-11-07 (Chase Coleman)
Meta is founder-controlled so Zuckerberg can make bold, asymmetric AI bets without board friction, and its massive cash-generating ad business acts as a printing press that self-funds the AI talent war in a way Google and Apple structurally cannot replicate
“he has the world's biggest printing press shooting out billion dollar bills”
90d -1.2% · 180d -9.0% · 1y -7.7%
Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2
2025-07-10
PCE
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Tariff pass-through to consumer prices will be smaller than feared over the next 6–8 weeks, meaning core PCE will not meaningfully re-accelerate and the Fed will proceed with rate cuts by year-end
“I'm taking the under on that”
Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2
2025-06-06
CHINESE INTERNET AND CONSUMER EQUITIES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Chinese government prioritizes competitive pricing and employment over market-cap maximization — evidenced by government-encouraged BYD price cuts of 30% and suppression of Jack Ma/Alibaba — so investors should not expect Chinese companies to compound into…
“The Chinese government may not consider that part of the objective function of what a win is”
China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-05-22
long NVDA / long AMD
basket
Bg2 Pod · video
Repeal of the Biden AI diffusion rule combined with trillion-dollar Middle East AI data center commitments (UAE alone: 5GW campus ≈ 2.5M GPUs) creates a step-change in addressable GPU demand for US chip leaders and their suppliers
“This is going to be a ton of business for companies like Nvidia, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies”
90d +40.6% · 180d +72.3% · 1y +192.2%
AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-05-22
STABLECOINS / GENIUS ACT BENEFICIARIES
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
The Genius Act gives stablecoin issuers regulatory certainty, unlocking them as the next-generation financial rails for global money transfer and positioning them to become the largest holders of US Treasuries as reserve backing scales
“this is really about something that's fundamental to innovating in how money transfers in the world”
AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Consensus S&P earnings estimates have barely budged (only ~3% cut to $265/share) despite widespread CEO capital freezes and two months of disruption, so the next leg down will be earnings-driven as guidance disappointments accumulate into the next reporting…
“consensus earnings expectations for the S&P have barely moved down”
90d -16.4% · 180d -23.5% · 1y -32.1%
Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
CoreWeave has diversified away from Microsoft-concentration risk by adding Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Nvidia as customers, and its 4-year contract unit economics allow full capex/opex payback in years 1–3 with year 4 as pure margin, making GPU depreciation…
“we were one of the largest buyers in the IPO and we're happy we did”
90d +245.5% · 180d +186.6% · 1y +69.3%
Liberation Day, Tariffs, US v China Open Source, OpenAI, $CRWV, TikTok | BG2
AI compute demand is growing far faster than Wall Street consensus (Jensen forecasting $1T/year data center spend by 2028 vs. Street's implied $250B revenue ceiling), while Nvidia trades at below-market multiples (~20x forward earnings) despite dominant and…
“I'm assuming multiples stay largely the same and I just get the benefit from the great execution and the top line and the earnings growth”
90d +22.2% · 180d +44.7% · 1y +49.3%
NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2
2025-03-02
GOVERNMENT-EXPOSED SOFTWARE AND IT SERVICES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Federal headcount potentially halving from 3M to 1.5M means companies with federal revenue lines face negative YoY revenue, not just slower growth, as software licenses, cloud consumption, and travel contracts get cancelled outright
“you saw what happened to palantir stock the other day when the president directed... 8% cuts in the Department of Defense every year”
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-03-02
Big Tech
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
DOGE austerity (~$1T in federal spending cuts) combined with a 10x tariff increase to ~$500B both subtract from GDP's G-component simultaneously, creating a fiscal contraction that compresses risk-asset multiples and could produce a 10–15% equity drawdown…
“we could see just a random run-of-the-mill 10 to 15% drawdown right in the market”
90d -5.4% · 180d -15.1% · 1y -23.0%
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Apple self-selected out of the frontier AI race by relying on third-party integrations (OpenAI, Gemini) instead of building a proprietary model, creating structural vulnerability as AI reshapes consumer computing and competitors embed AI natively into their…
“Apple has self-selected out of the race... I think there's a bunch of potential risk”
90d +15.1% · 180d +2.2% · 1y -11.7%
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-02-05
US TECH / GROWTH EQUITY MULTIPLES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Triple simultaneous uncertainty — AI tech disruption from DeepSeek, Trump tariff policy ambiguity, and potential constitutional clash over DOGE — forces discount rates higher and compresses multiples for the next six months, warranting a reduction to only…
“multiples come down and asset prices have to come down while the world sifts through all this”
DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
AI reduces operating costs for market-leading technology businesses while revenues hold or grow, producing sustained margin expansion that is accelerating in 2025–2026.
“this moment that we're in the next 5 years is going to be a golden moment of margin expansion for technology businesses”
90d +6.6% · 180d +20.8% · 1y -12.6%
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Inflation will not reignite, so rates are at or near a cyclical peak over the next few months.
“I don't think inflation is going to reignite and I think rates will... we're probably seeing the top in rates for the next three four months”
90d +3.2% · 180d +4.9% · 1y +8.0%
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-11
long SK / long MU
basket
Bg2 Pod · video
High-bandwidth memory is the critical bottleneck in Nvidia's AI supercomputer ecosystem; shortage is secular not cyclical; sophisticated software-embedded product deserves re-rating from ~6× forward earnings as the market recognizes it is not commodity DRAM
“we have a memory shortage which is a key part of the Nvidia supercomputer ecosystem for as far as we can see”
Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Inference-time reasoning causes KV cache to grow quadratically with context length, creating a secular demand shift for HBM memory that breaks the historical boom-bust pattern and re-rates memory makers like Micron
“it seems that the memory demanded of these chips...is on a secular shift higher”
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Even if LLM pre-training scaling decelerates, Nvidia demand is sustained by surging inference workloads, post-training compute, and large context-window requirements that favor big clusters, as confirmed by Hopper and Blackwell demand characterizations on the…
“I'm not worried about it from the perspective of Nvidia, because the real world people are focused on use cases”
90d -5.1% · 180d -8.4% · 1y +22.0%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Said again: 2024-12-23 (Bg2 Pod), 2025-01-11 (Bg2 Pod), 2025-01-23 (Bg2 Pod), 2025-02-05 (Bg2 Pod)
Tariff risk on imported goods and a highly-leveraged consumer spending on housewares create material earnings headwinds for Target, evidenced by its guidance cut and 25% selloff
“we were short a little bit of Target because we're worried about tariffs and we're worried about the retail consumer holding up”
90d -8.5% · 180d +17.7% · 1y +24.8%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Snowflake's 29% revenue growth and AI-driven efficiency gains crushed deeply depressed expectations, creating the positive leg of a spread trade against tariff-exposed retailers with stretched valuations
“there's massive room for efficiency, right? They're getting the efficiencies from AI... they still just grew 29% in the quarter”
90d +8.9% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +36.6%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-11-21
EUROPEAN AND JAPANESE LEGACY AUTO OEMS
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Traditional OEMs lack Tesla's sensor infrastructure, training data, and software capability to compete on autonomous driving, risking an extinction-level consolidation from roughly 20 global OEMs down to three or four dominant players
“there is a path where this is that extinction event, tectonic event that leads us from 20 OEMs down to three or four”
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Search revenue has reaccelerated to 12% growth, AI-enhanced search results monetize at the same level as traditional links, and GOOGL is already trading at the lowest multiple in the Mag 5 despite a solid quarter
“super solid quarter out of the company”
90d +14.3% · 180d -6.2% · 1y +65.1%
Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball
ARM's 300 billion device installed base positions it as the orthogonal competitor to NVIDIA — while NVIDIA dominates cloud training/inference clusters where its networking moat compounds, edge AI compute increasingly runs closer to the device, and ARM…
“I think arm's incredibly well positioned to do that”
90d -15.3% · 180d -35.7% · 1y +6.3%
Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Big-four hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon) are all capacity-constrained and doubling down on AI capex rather than pulling back, suggesting the 2025 revenue-lag concern is traversed; every prior major technology build cycle (PC, cloud, mobile) was…
“it seems we've traversed the 2025 capex concern cycle right like they are going to continue to spend”
90d +42.1% · 180d +19.2% · 1y +73.9%
Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Said again: 2024-10-13 (Bg2 Pod), 2024-10-13 (Bg2 Pod)
2024-08-09
Big Tech
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Converging headwinds — AI air pocket, rising recession signals (consumer delinquencies, weak jobs prints, Sahm rule triggered), potential 2025 tax-cut expiration, Japan carry trade unwind, and geopolitical risk — degraded risk/reward from highly positive in…
“when the skew gets more negative... we got to reduce the BET size”
90d -14.2% · 180d -17.3% · 1y -27.9%
Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
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