Investors / stance tracking
What Brad Gerstner is saying
Founder & CEO, Altimeter Capital
49 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-09, most recently 2026-08-08. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Brad Gerstner's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Brad Gerstner is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
49
tracked stances
30
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-08
last heard
Returns 90d +9.2% (n=34) · 180d +11.2% (n=33) · 1y +36.6% (n=26)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
GOOGL — bullish2024-10-31 → bearish2025-11-07
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 13 | 13 bullish | 2025-11-07 | |
| META | 3 | 3 bullish | 2025-11-07 | |
| Big Tech | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-03-02 | |
| GOOGL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-11-07 | |
| SPACEX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-08-08 | |
| AAPL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-03-02 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-08
SPACEX
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Grok+Cursor AI business should trade at much higher multiples than the data center rental segment, Starlink is a dominant juggernaut, and revenue trajectory supports tripling from $1.4T over a 3-4 year view on either Morgan Stanley or Elon's numbers
“you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-08-08
AI/SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS
owns
All-In Podcast · video
The July selloff in semi and AI-related stocks driven by fears that Chinese open-source would undercut frontier lab revenues was excessive panic—US frontier labs continue to gain wallet share—creating a buyable dislocation
“we put in the Leopold bottom hopefully in July... I literally bought the bottom”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-08-08
FIGMA
owns
All-In Podcast · video
Figma has a great founder-led team and passionate user base that will successfully transition to an AI-first product, differentiating it from no-code SaaS peers facing existential disruption from LLM coding tools
“I bought some Figma... I'd put Figma in that bucket”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-07-11
SPACEX
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
SpaceX IPO was textbook execution at 1.75T / 35B forward revenue, now up 25% and still a compounder with 30%+ revenue growth ahead, leaving significant meat on the bone at current 2T valuation
“I still think there's a lot of meat on the bone on SpaceX, on Anthropic, on Open AI”
More Trillion Dollar IPOs, Anthropic $3T, Zuck's Price War, China Ends Open Source?, Trump Accounts
2026-07-06
SOX
bullish
CNBC Television · video
Anthropic and OpenAI revenue is growing at the fastest pace ever seen in technology history, validating the $1.2T annual capex cycle, and remains the single most important driver of the entire AI trade in equities
“It's the single most important thing in the market. I don't see that. I don't expect that to continue [declining].”
Squawk Pod: Trump Accounts launch: Brad Gerstner - 07/06/26 | Audio Only
2026-06-11
AI COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE (HYPERSCALERS + NEOCLOUDS)
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
2027 global AI capex is tracking toward $1.5T (vs Morgan Stanley's $1.1T estimate) while inference revenue approaches $300B with 60-70% gross margins and monetization per gigawatt is rising from ~$20B to $40B+ — making the capital cycle self-funding and…
“the world underestimated AI revenues and underestimated the amount of compute that was going to be needed”
The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang
2026-06-07
NEUROBOTICS (PRIVATE EUROPEAN LOGISTICS ROBOTICS COMPANY)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Neurobotics is an AI-powered logistics robotics company based in Germany with $100M in revenue that is quietly scaling with strong backing, benefiting from the broader AI-driven automation wave outside of overvalued Silicon Valley names
“Quiet company, big investors, 100 million revenue, kicking ass”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
SIERRA (BRETT TAYLOR'S AI AGENT COMPANY, PRIVATE)
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Sierra is building agent-native sales, marketing, and customer service software and could be acquired by large tech players seeking to accelerate into agentic AI, providing upside beyond organic revenue growth
“They're building basically Salesforce agent native”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
PRIVATE MARKET SECONDARIES / LATE-STAGE PRIVATE COMPANIES
owns
All-In Podcast · video
Secondary market volume is at record highs and now trading at a premium (106 cents on the dollar), making late-stage private secondaries a legitimate and liquid asset class competing with IPOs and M&A as exit mechanisms
“We are selling into this...if you can go sell a slice at 4 or 5x and we get DPI, then go sell some of it”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-06-07
LEVERED ETFS ON SPACEX IPO
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
The proliferation of 14 leveraged ETFs planned for the SpaceX IPO day is a sentiment signal indicating the market is near a top, not a bottom, suggesting caution on high-beta tech exposure at current valuations
“There are 14 ETFs launching on the day of the SpaceX IPO...this just tells me we may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom”
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom
2026-04-10
OPENAI (SECONDARY MARKET)
owns
video
Peak OpenAI FUD is now — Spud model previews show it is competitive with Anthropic Mythos, the company is firmly on the AI wave, and the TAM for intelligence is larger than anything seen in prior investing careers, making the secondary shares a buy despite…
“I'm a buyer of the shares today. Notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe, I think these companies are firmly on the wave.”
2025-11-07
GOOGL
bearish
Chase Coleman · video
Google's 10-blue-links search advertising model—which generates over 100% of profits—is structurally at odds with AI delivering direct answers, posing a fundamental 5-7 year challenge even as near-term results remain fine.
“if you ask me fundamentally over the course of the next five to seven years I think it's a challenge for Google”
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
META
bullish
Chase Coleman · video
Meta is making the right founder-level, risk-seeking investments to build the world's best AI foundation model, while Google's search profit pool representing over 100% of profits is structurally at odds with the AI transition.
“I think Meta is making the type of founder investments that I would want to see”
90d +7.9% · 180d -1.3%
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
INTERNET TRAVEL/BOOKING INTERMEDIARIES (BOOKING.COM, EXPEDIA)
bearish
Chase Coleman · video
AI agents will disintermediate OTAs and booking platforms by completing transactions directly rather than routing traffic to third-party sites, destroying the 15-20% toll-collecting model that sat in Google's underbelly.
“whoever the winners were in your app ecosystem, they're suspect”
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
NVDA
bullish
Chase Coleman · video
Nvidia has massive scale advantages in compute and data that compound in the AI era, with 3-4 trillion of global datacenter buildout making a supply glut unlikely for at least 2-3 years.
“if I had to put all my money in two stocks, it would be Nvidia and Open AI”
90d -8.6% · 180d +10.5%
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-11-07
OPENAI (PRIVATE)
bullish
Chase Coleman · video
ChatGPT holds massive scale advantages in compute and data as the consumer AI winner, and the consumer AI market is the largest AI market opportunity over the next 5-10 years.
“Chat GPT is the winner in consumer AI...the biggest market in AI over the course of the next 5 to 10 years”
How Top Investors See the Future of AI | Chase Coleman, Brad Gerstner, Josh Wolfe at Robin Hood 2025
2025-10-31
MSFT
bullish
video
Market misattributes net negative value to Microsoft's OpenAI exposure by focusing on consolidated losses while ignoring the Azure exclusivity, ongoing revshare, royalty-free frontier-model IP access, and $130B equity stake—all of which represent deeply…
“the market may even be attributing negative value because of the losses”
90d -16.1% · 180d -17.7%
2025-10-31
AI COMPUTE INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
video
Demand for AI compute continues to vastly outstrip supply for at least the next 2–3 years—confirmed by Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI all reporting they are supply-constrained—making the multi-trillion dollar capex buildout a high-conviction secular…
“not enough compute, not enough compute, not enough compute”
2025-10-31
TRADITIONAL SAAS SOFTWARE
bearish
video
AI agents replace the business-logic tier in SaaS applications, shifting value accrual away from legacy software companies toward the AI token-factory layer (compute and models), threatening multiples that already trade below their 10-year average despite an…
“maybe the agents or the software will acrue a little bit less of the value in the future than they've accured in the past”
2025-10-14
NVDA
owns
Bg2 Pod · video
Nvidia's minority investments target companies with independent capital access (OpenAI oversubscribed, xAI could raise elsewhere), and the company will generate ~$450B of free cash over 3 years, making its CapEx deployments unlike the more circular…
“I'm not concerned as a shareholder in Nvidia with what I'm seeing Nvidia do today. I like how they're deploying their cash”
90d +2.7% · 180d +5.2%
AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
2025-10-14
META
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Meta's elevated CapEx (back to ~66% of FCF) is fundamentally different from the Reality Labs era because AI spend is visibly translating into earnings growth without proportional headcount increases, giving investors a concrete ROI they now understand and…
“As an investor, let me just tell you my own perspective. The reason Meta's stock's doing great... investors understand it and believe in it”
90d -9.3% · 180d -10.3%
AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
2025-10-10
NVDA
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
AI compute demand is systematically underestimated by Wall Street — there are no dark GPUs today and no sign of any next year; Nvidia has captured 90-100% of incremental AI data center revenue growth while trading at a lower P/E than when shares were $200…
“There is not a dark GPU in the world today. There's not going to be a dark GPU in the world next year.”
90d +1.0% · 180d -0.6%
Trump Brokers Gaza Peace Deal, National Guard in Chicago, OpenAI/AMD, AI Roundtripping, Gold Rally
2025-09-26
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
NVDA's competitive moat is increasing — annual cadence, supply chain locked three years forward, co-design complexity unreplicable by ASIC newcomers — yet sell-side consensus prices in only 8% revenue growth 2027-2030 and the multiple sits below ecosystem…
“Is there any conceivable world in your mind where your top line in 5 years isn't two or 3x bigger”
90d +6.9% · 180d +0.3%
NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
2025-07-10
META
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Meta is founder-controlled so Zuckerberg can make bold, asymmetric AI bets without board friction, and its massive cash-generating ad business acts as a printing press that self-funds the AI talent war in a way Google and Apple structurally cannot replicate
“he has the world's biggest printing press shooting out billion dollar bills”
90d -1.2% · 180d -9.0% · 1y -7.7%
Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2
2025-06-06
CHINESE INTERNET AND CONSUMER EQUITIES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Chinese government prioritizes competitive pricing and employment over market-cap maximization — evidenced by government-encouraged BYD price cuts of 30% and suppression of Jack Ma/Alibaba — so investors should not expect Chinese companies to compound into…
“The Chinese government may not consider that part of the objective function of what a win is”
China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-05-22
long NVDA / long AMD
basket
Bg2 Pod · video
Repeal of the Biden AI diffusion rule combined with trillion-dollar Middle East AI data center commitments (UAE alone: 5GW campus ≈ 2.5M GPUs) creates a step-change in addressable GPU demand for US chip leaders and their suppliers
“This is going to be a ton of business for companies like Nvidia, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies”
90d +40.6% · 180d +72.3% · 1y +192.2%
AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-04-24
SPX
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Consensus S&P earnings estimates have barely budged (only ~3% cut to $265/share) despite widespread CEO capital freezes and two months of disruption, so the next leg down will be earnings-driven as guidance disappointments accumulate into the next reporting…
“consensus earnings expectations for the S&P have barely moved down”
90d +16.4% · 180d +23.5% · 1y +32.1%
Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-04-04
CRWV
owns
Bg2 Pod · video
CoreWeave has diversified away from Microsoft-concentration risk by adding Google, Meta, OpenAI, and Nvidia as customers, and its 4-year contract unit economics allow full capex/opex payback in years 1–3 with year 4 as pure margin, making GPU depreciation…
“we were one of the largest buyers in the IPO and we're happy we did”
90d +245.5% · 180d +186.6% · 1y +69.3%
Liberation Day, Tariffs, US v China Open Source, OpenAI, $CRWV, TikTok | BG2
2025-03-21
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
AI compute demand is growing far faster than Wall Street consensus (Jensen forecasting $1T/year data center spend by 2028 vs. Street's implied $250B revenue ceiling), while Nvidia trades at below-market multiples (~20x forward earnings) despite dominant and…
“I'm assuming multiples stay largely the same and I just get the benefit from the great execution and the top line and the earnings growth”
90d +22.2% · 180d +44.7% · 1y +49.3%
NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2
2025-03-02
GOVERNMENT-EXPOSED SOFTWARE AND IT SERVICES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Federal headcount potentially halving from 3M to 1.5M means companies with federal revenue lines face negative YoY revenue, not just slower growth, as software licenses, cloud consumption, and travel contracts get cancelled outright
“you saw what happened to palantir stock the other day when the president directed... 8% cuts in the Department of Defense every year”
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-03-02
Big Tech
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
DOGE austerity (~$1T in federal spending cuts) combined with a 10x tariff increase to ~$500B both subtract from GDP's G-component simultaneously, creating a fiscal contraction that compresses risk-asset multiples and could produce a 10–15% equity drawdown…
“we could see just a random run-of-the-mill 10 to 15% drawdown right in the market”
90d -5.4% · 180d -15.1% · 1y -23.0%
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-03-02
AAPL
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Apple self-selected out of the frontier AI race by relying on third-party integrations (OpenAI, Gemini) instead of building a proprietary model, creating structural vulnerability as AI reshapes consumer computing and competitors embed AI natively into their…
“Apple has self-selected out of the race... I think there's a bunch of potential risk”
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-02-05
US TECH / GROWTH EQUITY MULTIPLES
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Triple simultaneous uncertainty — AI tech disruption from DeepSeek, Trump tariff policy ambiguity, and potential constitutional clash over DOGE — forces discount rates higher and compresses multiples for the next six months, warranting a reduction to only…
“multiples come down and asset prices have to come down while the world sifts through all this”
DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-02-05
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
DeepSeek triggers Jevons paradox — dramatically cheaper inference drives massively higher aggregate compute demand, making AI supercycle fundamentals bigger than ever despite near-term valuation and macro risks
“I think we're going to need way more compute than we have”
90d -9.0% · 180d +44.2% · 1y +37.7%
DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-23
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Stargate adds a massive new GPU buyer on top of existing hyperscaler demand in an already chip-constrained market, extending Nvidia's supply advantage for multiple years.
“the person that is probably most obviously impacted by this is Jensen and Nvidia... I think you are going to be chip constrained for the next several years”
90d -30.2% · 180d +13.5% · 1y +27.5%
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-23
NFLX
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
AI reduces operating costs for market-leading technology businesses while revenues hold or grow, producing sustained margin expansion that is accelerating in 2025–2026.
“this moment that we're in the next 5 years is going to be a golden moment of margin expansion for technology businesses”
90d +6.6% · 180d +20.8% · 1y -12.6%
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-23
USTS
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Inflation will not reignite, so rates are at or near a cyclical peak over the next few months.
“I don't think inflation is going to reignite and I think rates will... we're probably seeing the top in rates for the next three four months”
90d -3.2% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -8.0%
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-11
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Hyperscaler capex commitments of ~$300B translate almost entirely to Nvidia data center revenue (growing from $61B in 2023 to ~$200B in 2025 consensus), and inference compute demand is set to grow 1M–1Bx as AI reasoning models proliferate, expanding the…
“why is that better than Nvidia... we tend to just take bigger bets on our best ideas”
90d -16.7% · 180d +23.2% · 1y +38.8%
Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2025-01-11
long SK / long MU
basket
Bg2 Pod · video
High-bandwidth memory is the critical bottleneck in Nvidia's AI supercomputer ecosystem; shortage is secular not cyclical; sophisticated software-embedded product deserves re-rating from ~6× forward earnings as the market recognizes it is not commodity DRAM
“we have a memory shortage which is a key part of the Nvidia supercomputer ecosystem for as far as we can see”
Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-12-23
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
NVIDIA's PE of ~30x is far below Cisco's 120x bubble peak, so a Cisco-like collapse would require 70% revenue destruction, which is implausible given accelerating hyperscaler CapEx and inference-time compute driving sustained GPU demand
“nvidia's you know PE today is 30 it's not 120”
90d -13.1% · 180d +3.2% · 1y +35.5%
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-12-23
HBM
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Inference-time reasoning causes KV cache to grow quadratically with context length, creating a secular demand shift for HBM memory that breaks the historical boom-bust pattern and re-rates memory makers like Micron
“it seems that the memory demanded of these chips...is on a secular shift higher”
90d -0.2% · 180d +16.6% · 1y +140.3%
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-11-21
TGT
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Tariff risk on imported goods and a highly-leveraged consumer spending on housewares create material earnings headwinds for Target, evidenced by its guidance cut and 25% selloff
“we were short a little bit of Target because we're worried about tariffs and we're worried about the retail consumer holding up”
90d -8.5% · 180d +17.7% · 1y +24.8%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-11-21
SNOW
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Snowflake's 29% revenue growth and AI-driven efficiency gains crushed deeply depressed expectations, creating the positive leg of a spread trade against tariff-exposed retailers with stretched valuations
“there's massive room for efficiency, right? They're getting the efficiencies from AI... they still just grew 29% in the quarter”
90d +8.9% · 180d +6.7% · 1y +36.6%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-11-21
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Even if LLM pre-training scaling decelerates, Nvidia demand is sustained by surging inference workloads, post-training compute, and large context-window requirements that favor big clusters, as confirmed by Hopper and Blackwell demand characterizations on the…
“I'm not worried about it from the perspective of Nvidia, because the real world people are focused on use cases”
90d -5.1% · 180d -8.4% · 1y +22.0%
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-10-31
GOOGL
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Search revenue has reaccelerated to 12% growth, AI-enhanced search results monetize at the same level as traditional links, and GOOGL is already trading at the lowest multiple in the Mag 5 despite a solid quarter
“super solid quarter out of the company”
90d +14.3% · 180d -6.2% · 1y +65.1%
Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball
2024-10-13
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
NVIDIA's competitive moat is combinatorial and widening — full-stack dominance (GPU + CUDA software libraries + networking + supply chain relationships hardened over decades) means the architecture advantage compounds at every layer, and a…
“is there any reason your Revenue doesn't... 2X the revenue 3x the revenue in the future”
90d -3.5% · 180d -19.6% · 1y +36.4%
Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-10-13
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
NVIDIA's competitive moat is deeper than the market appreciates because their systems-level integration (nvlink networking, backward-compatible CUDA libraries, industry-specific acceleration algorithms) strengthens as cluster scale grows, not weakens — Brad…
“I clearly underestimated the scale of what it meant to be a non-GPU company to be a system company”
90d -3.5% · 180d -19.6% · 1y +36.4%
Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-08-09
NVDA
bullish
Bg2 Pod · video
Big-four hyperscalers (Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon) are all capacity-constrained and doubling down on AI capex rather than pulling back, suggesting the 2025 revenue-lag concern is traversed; every prior major technology build cycle (PC, cloud, mobile) was…
“it seems we've traversed the 2025 capex concern cycle right like they are going to continue to spend”
90d +42.1% · 180d +19.2% · 1y +73.9%
Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
2024-08-09
Big Tech
bearish
Bg2 Pod · video
Converging headwinds — AI air pocket, rising recession signals (consumer delinquencies, weak jobs prints, Sahm rule triggered), potential 2025 tax-cut expiration, Japan carry trade unwind, and geopolitical risk — degraded risk/reward from highly positive in…
“when the skew gets more negative... we got to reduce the BET size”
90d -14.2% · 180d -17.3% · 1y -27.9%
Ep14. Public Market Volatility, AI Air Pocket, $GOOG Ruling | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
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