Investors / stance tracking
What Andy Constan is saying
Founder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors
8 dated public stances tracked since 2024-11-14, most recently 2025-08-06. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Andy Constan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Andy Constan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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8
tracked stances
4
themes
0
side flips
2025-08-06
last heard
Returns 90d +1.5% (n=8) · 180d +1.6% (n=8) · 1y +2.6% (n=8)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-08-06 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bearish | 2024-11-14 | |
| SOFR | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-02-26 | |
| SPX | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-02-26 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-08-06
BITCOIN
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is part of the debasement trade basket that is reversing as QRA cold water + contractionary fiscal ends the run-it-hot narrative, but Constan does not hold positions in Bitcoin
“I'm bearish Bitcoin, but I don't have — I don't take positions in Bitcoin yet”
90d +11.8% · 180d +31.6% · 1y +44.2%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
2025-08-06
long USD / short GOLD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
QRA cold-water outcome + accelerating TGA rebuild + contractionary fiscal impulse (tariffs offset big beautiful bill) ends the debasement narrative that drove gold higher and the dollar lower, making the reversal sharp and near-term
“I'm bullish the dollar and I'm bearish gold right now”
90d -6.7% · 180d -17.9% · 1y -9.6%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
2025-08-06
long USTS / short USTS
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Fed cuts will drive the 2-year note from ~4% to ~3.45% while the 10s-30s face a secular supply overhang from Treasury and Fed both irresponsibly long duration, making the curve steeper and the short end the only attractive carry zone
“I would rather own twos through fives, even levered, than own tens and 30s, which have this secular supply problem”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
2025-02-26
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Multi-factor growth slowdown — elevated term premium, DOGE spending cuts, immigration-driven labor supply contraction, and possible tariffs — will force Fed rate cuts that benefit front-end rate longs even if long-end yields stay sticky
“my principal risk right now is long SOFR Futures”
90d +1.1% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +4.3%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
2025-02-26
SPX
short
Forward Guidance · video
Growth deceleration will compress the earnings numerator while elevated term premium keeps the discount rate high, and any Fed cuts will arrive too slowly and too shallowly to rescue stretched valuations amid still-sticky inflation
“I'm short equities because I expect that interest rates are going to get cut but not enough”
90d +0.3% · 180d -8.7% · 1y -17.3%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
2025-02-26
long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
Forward Guidance · video
QT 2.0 mechanics — Fed halting long-end reinvestment and potentially executing reverse operation twist — create a persistent ~100B/month duration overhang that should widen term premium 25–50 bps at the long end, while growth slowdown forces Fed to cut short…
“the next move is going to be a steepener… twos are going to make more money”
90d +3.0% · 180d +3.1% · 1y +2.1%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
2024-11-14
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Hidden Forces · video
Fed cutting into above-trend growth and sticky inflation while a trillion dollars of duration must be termed out of bills into coupon bonds, term premiums are near zero, and financial conditions are already loose — 10yr should rise to 5.00-5.25% and 30yr to…
“is it a great value relative to cash right now there's very little”
90d +2.4% · 180d +2.9% · 1y -2.8%
Why the Fed Risks Losing Control of the Bond Market | Andy Constan
2024-11-14
long USTS / short USTS
spread
Hidden Forces · video
Fed is too dovish relative to above-trend growth and sticky inflation, so short-end rates stay anchored while a trillion dollars of duration supply forces long-end yields back to a normal positively-sloped curve, producing a bear steepening of 75-125 bps in…
“two-year rates are about where they are today and 10-year rates are five, five and a quarter, 30-year rates maybe five and a half”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Why the Fed Risks Losing Control of the Bond Market | Andy Constan
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