Investors / stance tracking
What Andy Constan is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & Macro Strategist, Damped Spring Advisors
12 dated public stances tracked since 2024-11-14, most recently 2026-10-21. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Andy Constan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Andy Constan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
12
tracked stances
4
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-21
last heard
Returns 90d +1.2% 50% correct · 8 calls · 180d +1.1% 38% correct · 8 calls · 1y +1.6% 25% correct · 8 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-06 | long USTS / short USTS | ratio | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-08-06 | long USD / short GOLD | pair | -6.7% | -17.9% | -9.6% |
| 2025-08-06 | BITCOIN | bearish | +11.8% | +31.6% | +44.2% |
| 2025-02-26 | long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries | pair | +3.0% | +3.1% | +2.1% |
| 2025-02-26 | SPX | short | +0.3% | -8.7% | -17.3% |
| 2025-02-26 | SOFR | bearish | -1.1% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 2024-11-14 | long USTS / short USTS | spread | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-14 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +2.4% | +2.9% | -2.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2024-11-14 → bullish2026-09-29
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-09-29 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-10-04 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-08-06 | |
| SOFR | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-02-26 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-21
long Long Dur Treasuries / short SPX
hedge
Excess Returns (feed) · video
Persistently elevated long-term rates (~5–5.25% on the 10-year for the next 3–4 months) make bonds cheap while simultaneously creating an economic headwind for equities; the AI capex cycle demands massive corporate debt and equity issuance that caps equity…
“the best way to do that is to buy some bonds because they've gotten much cheaper and short some equities”
CoreWeave's Debt Is Cracking. AI Stocks Are Falling. So Why Is Andy Constan Watching Bond Issuance?
30-year yields at ~5.5% and 10-year yields at ~5.25% alongside an active Fed hiking cycle constrain any meaningful equity upside acceleration
“I don't think we accelerate to the upside in equities”
The 10-Year Hit a 24-Year High. He Went Max Long | Andy Constan on Why Bonds Have a Role Again
2026-09-29
short SPX / long Long Dur Treasuries
hedge
Julia La Roche Show · video
US equities are priced on unrealistically high earnings (AI companies collectively claiming more than 100% of GDP pie) while long Treasuries now carry real yields of ~3% and will appreciate if growth disappoints — the seventh post-COVID rate spike is unlikely…
“I am short equities, long long-term bonds each”
Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
2026-09-29
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Julia La Roche Show · video
The 40-year bond bubble peaked in Sept 2020 at 65bps and has fully deflated; real yields on the long end are now 3–3.25% with positive term premium, restoring both genuine carry and equity-portfolio diversification that were absent during the bubble years
“the 6040 strikes back... they should be part of the conversation. Now, I happen to think they have gotten massively oversold”
Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back
Said again: 2026-10-04 (Excess Returns)
2025-08-06
long USD / short GOLD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
QRA cold-water outcome + accelerating TGA rebuild + contractionary fiscal impulse (tariffs offset big beautiful bill) ends the debasement narrative that drove gold higher and the dollar lower, making the reversal sharp and near-term
“I'm bullish the dollar and I'm bearish gold right now”
90d -6.7% · 180d -17.9% · 1y -9.6%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
2025-08-06
long USTS / short USTS
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
Fed cuts will drive the 2-year note from ~4% to ~3.45% while the 10s-30s face a secular supply overhang from Treasury and Fed both irresponsibly long duration, making the curve steeper and the short end the only attractive carry zone
“I would rather own twos through fives, even levered, than own tens and 30s, which have this secular supply problem”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
Bitcoin is part of the debasement trade basket that is reversing as QRA cold water + contractionary fiscal ends the run-it-hot narrative, but Constan does not hold positions in Bitcoin
“I'm bearish Bitcoin, but I don't have — I don't take positions in Bitcoin yet”
90d +11.8% · 180d +31.6% · 1y +44.2%
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
2025-02-26
long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries
pair
Forward Guidance · video
QT 2.0 mechanics — Fed halting long-end reinvestment and potentially executing reverse operation twist — create a persistent ~100B/month duration overhang that should widen term premium 25–50 bps at the long end, while growth slowdown forces Fed to cut short…
“the next move is going to be a steepener… twos are going to make more money”
90d +3.0% · 180d +3.1% · 1y +2.1%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
2025-02-26
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Multi-factor growth slowdown — elevated term premium, DOGE spending cuts, immigration-driven labor supply contraction, and possible tariffs — will force Fed rate cuts that benefit front-end rate longs even if long-end yields stay sticky
“my principal risk right now is long SOFR Futures”
90d -1.1% · 180d -2.1% · 1y -4.2%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
Growth deceleration will compress the earnings numerator while elevated term premium keeps the discount rate high, and any Fed cuts will arrive too slowly and too shallowly to rescue stretched valuations amid still-sticky inflation
“I'm short equities because I expect that interest rates are going to get cut but not enough”
90d +0.3% · 180d -8.7% · 1y -17.3%
The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
2024-11-14
long USTS / short USTS
spread
Hidden Forces · video
Fed is too dovish relative to above-trend growth and sticky inflation, so short-end rates stay anchored while a trillion dollars of duration supply forces long-end yields back to a normal positively-sloped curve, producing a bear steepening of 75-125 bps in…
“two-year rates are about where they are today and 10-year rates are five, five and a quarter, 30-year rates maybe five and a half”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Why the Fed Risks Losing Control of the Bond Market | Andy Constan
2024-11-14
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Hidden Forces · video
Fed cutting into above-trend growth and sticky inflation while a trillion dollars of duration must be termed out of bills into coupon bonds, term premiums are near zero, and financial conditions are already loose — 10yr should rise to 5.00-5.25% and 30yr to…
“is it a great value relative to cash right now there's very little”
90d +2.4% · 180d +2.9% · 1y -2.8%
Why the Fed Risks Losing Control of the Bond Market | Andy Constan
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click