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Investors / stance tracking

What Warren Buffett is saying

Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway

51 dated public stances tracked since 2013-01-20, most recently 2023-12-20. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Warren Buffett's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Warren Buffett is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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51
tracked stances
32
themes
1
side flips
2023-12-20
last heard
Returns  90d +7.3% (n=25) · 180d +9.9% (n=24) · 1y +9.9% (n=24)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

BANKS — bullish2023-05-07 → bearish2023-12-20

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
BANKS32 bullish / 1 bearish2023-12-20
BITCOIN33 bearish2023-12-20
KO33 bullish2023-01-04
PARA32 bearish / 1 neutral2023-12-20
SPX33 bullish2023-12-20
USTS33 bullish2023-12-20

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2023-12-20 JAPANESE TRADING HOUSES (ITOCHU, MARUBENI, MITSUBISHI, MITSUI, SUMITOMO) bullish Warren Buffett · video
The five largest Japanese trading companies were trading at a ~14% earnings yield with growing dividends at a time when rates were near zero, making them extraordinarily cheap relative to prevailing interest rates, and their businesses are similar to…
“I could buy into these companies and in effect have an earnings yield maybe 14% with dividends that would grow”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 AAPL bullish Warren Buffett · video
Apple has an unmatched consumer utility and switching-cost moat—users would not give up their iPhone for $10,000—and Tim Cook has managed the business extraordinarily well, making it irreplaceable in Berkshire's portfolio
“If somebody offers you $10,000 but you'll never be able to buy another iPhone, you're not going to take it”
90d -9.5% · 180d +11.5% · 1y +28.8%
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 CATASTROPHE REINSURANCE bullish Warren Buffett · video
After years of underpricing, cat reinsurance rates have risen to more attractive levels, and Berkshire is writing more catastrophe coverage in 2023 than in 2022 because it can absorb losses up to $10 billion per event that no other reinsurer can match
“We can lose $10 billion and nobody else can play in that game”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 TSM bullish Warren Buffett · video
TSMC is a fabulous business and best-in-class semiconductor manufacturer, but Buffett sold most of the position after re-evaluating geopolitical risk from potential Chinese action against Taiwan—risk outside management's control—not due to any business…
“I re-evaluated that part of it; I didn't re-evaluate the business, the management, or anything of the sort”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 SPX bullish Warren Buffett · video
Over many decades owning a cross-section of productive American businesses has overwhelmingly outperformed holding cash or foreign assets, and Buffett sees no reason to change that posture despite near-term economic softness
“Since 1942 if you just said bet on America, figure out a way to be in the better businesses, it's just the way we work”
90d +10.5% · 180d +17.2% · 1y +26.3%
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 BANKS bearish Warren Buffett · video
Many banks mismatched asset and liability durations by holding long-term instruments funded by short-term deposits, a predictable error that erodes capital when rates rise, prompting Berkshire to sell bank holdings it had owned for 25-30 years
“They mismatched assets and liabilities and bankers have been tempted to do that forever and every now and then it bites them”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 USTS owns Warren Buffett · video
With ~$128 billion in cash equivalents, Berkshire systematically buys T-bills every Monday because yields have risen from 4 basis points to ~5%, generating ~$5 billion annually while keeping powder dry for opportunistic acquisitions
“We buy about $2 billion of them every Monday; we got a 4.99% bond equivalent yield”
90d -2.2% · 180d -1.0% · 1y -0.9%
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 PARA bearish Warren Buffett · video
Streaming is not a fundamentally good business—competitors with deep pockets have attracted subscribers at uneconomic prices and it remains unclear whether pricing power can be established—yet Buffett declined to give a clear buy rationale, implying…
“Streaming is not really a very good business; they attracted subscribers at a terrible price”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 ENERGY bullish Warren Buffett · video
Occidental is run by an extremely competent CEO (Vicki Hollub) who understands oil, geopolitics, and carbon-capture technology, and the world will need roughly 100 million barrels per day of oil production for years regardless of the energy transition timeline
“You will be producing more oil five years from now or about the same amount”
90d +10.1% · 180d +5.4% · 1y +1.1%
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 BYD bullish Warren Buffett · video
BYD is an extraordinary company run by an exceptional founder, but at a ~$6.5 billion implied stake valuation Buffett believes he can find better uses for the capital elsewhere, prompting gradual trimming without urgency to exit fully
“We'll find things to do with the money that I'll feel better about”
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-12-20 BITCOIN bearish Warren Buffett · video
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and functions purely as a gambling token driven by the human speculative instinct, with no underlying productive asset to anchor valuation—Buffett will not participate regardless of price action
“Bitcoin is a gambling token and doesn't have any intrinsic value”
90d -42.0% · 180d -52.3% · 1y -100.0%
Warren Buffett and Greg Abel April 2023 full interview
2023-05-07 PARA bearish Warren Buffett · video
Streaming is a structurally challenged business where eyeball hours are fixed, content costs are high, customer lock-in is weak, and multiple well-funded competitors refuse to exit, making pricing power and profitability elusive
“you need higher prices or it doesn't work and you don't lock in people”
90d -0.3% · 180d -1.6% · 1y +96.9%
Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett
2023-05-07 NETJETS (PRIVATE, BERKSHIRE SUBSIDIARY) bullish Warren Buffett · video
NetJets has an unmatched 650+ plane fleet with zero viable competition (Wheels Up trading at $0.48 vs $10 IPO), a growing backlog requiring 100 new planes/year, and a captive ultra-high-net-worth customer base that views the cost as an estate/heir expense
“it's in a class by itself; it's done what Ferrari has done in a different sort of way”
Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett
2023-05-07 ENERGY bullish Warren Buffett · video
Chevron's Permian Basin mineral and acreage position (including legacy Texas Pacific Land assets) provides long-lived low-cost oil exposure versus the short-lived shale wells of peers
“there is no oil basin in the United States that compares to the Permian in terms of promise”
90d +9.4% · 180d +9.8% · 1y +20.3%
Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett
2023-05-07 JAPANESE TRADING HOUSES (ITOCHU, MARUBENI, MITSUBISHI, MITSUI, SUMITOMO) owns Warren Buffett · video
The five largest Japanese trading companies were trading at what Buffett considered a ridiculously low price relative to prevailing interest rates, offering earnings yields around 14% with dividends that have since grown ~70%, making them compelling long-term…
“we'll be in these stocks 10 20 years...we couldn't feel better about the investment”
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 TSM bullish Warren Buffett · video
While TSMC is one of the best-managed companies in the world with a superb business, Buffett sold most of the position after re-evaluating geopolitical risk from potential Chinese military action against Taiwan, not due to any change in view on business…
“I re-evaluated that part of it. I didn't reevaluate the business, the management or anything of the sort”
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 CATASTROPHE REINSURANCE / INSURANCE UNDERWRITING owns Warren Buffett · video
Prices for catastrophe coverage have reset sharply higher after years of under-pricing, making current underwriting economics attractive enough for Berkshire to write more cat cover in 2023 than in 2022
“we are writing more cat cover this year actually than we were riding last year because the prices are so much better”
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 BANKS owns Warren Buffett · video
Buffett proposed the original deal to BofA and likes the management, giving him high conviction to hold despite uncertainty in the broader banking sector
“I like Bank of America I like the management and I proposed the deals so I stick with it”
90d +28.3% · 180d +17.7% · 1y +45.6%
Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett
2023-05-07 AAPL bullish Warren Buffett · video
Apple has created an extraordinarily sticky consumer utility that commands pricing power and loyalty far exceeding typical consumer products, managed exceptionally well by Tim Cook who buys back stock without diluting shareholders
“if somebody offers you ten thousand dollars...you'll never be able to buy another iPhone—you're not going to take it”
90d +3.2% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +5.3%
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 USTS owns Warren Buffett · video
With yields near 5% versus essentially zero recently, T-bills now offer meaningful return while providing the liquidity and safety required to keep Berkshire positioned to act on any large opportunity
“we buy treasury bills every Monday and we haven't missed a Monday yet”
90d -3.6% · 180d -6.1% · 1y -3.6%
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 USTS owns Warren Buffett · video
Berkshire holds $128B+ in cash and T-bills earning 5%+ as dry powder for opportunistic acquisitions or buybacks during potential financial dislocations, while protecting against banking system stress
“it isn't killing us to hold $130 billion of bills at five percent plus bond equivalent yields”
90d -3.6% · 180d -6.1% · 1y -3.6%
Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett
2023-05-07 BITCOIN bearish Warren Buffett · video
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and functions purely as a gambling token, attracting participants through the same psychological mechanisms as lotteries and chain letters, with no underlying business or cash flow to support any fundamental valuation
“it's a gambling token and it doesn't have any intrinsic value”
90d -0.3% · 180d -19.9% · 1y -100.0%
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 BYDDF bullish Warren Buffett · video
Buffett has been trimming BYD because at current valuations he believes Berkshire can find better uses for the capital, though he still views BYD as an extraordinary company with exceptional management
“we'll find things to do with the money that I'll feel better about”
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-05-07 PARA neutral Warren Buffett · video
Buffett acknowledged buying a stake but was candid that streaming is not a fundamentally good business, pricing power is unproven, and entertainment generally has not rewarded shareholders well—suggesting low conviction
“it isn't fundamentally that good of a business...we'll see what happens”
Warren Buffett Full Interview 2023
2023-01-04 KO bullish Warren Buffett · video
Coca-Cola is a wonderful business with durable competitive advantage whose earnings power compounds over decades, making permanent ownership preferable to selling even at high valuations
“wonderful businesses are not that common and if you get a big position and a wonderful business not a bad thing”
90d -0.4% · 180d -2.2% · 1y -2.0%
Warren Buffett's Most Iconic Interviews Ever, interviewed by Charlie Rose
2023-01-04 GM neutral Warren Buffett · video
GM's massive UAW legacy healthcare and pension obligations — paying roughly 2.5 retired workers per active worker — may exceed the value of the auto business, making the net equity impossible to confidently value against competitors like Toyota who carry none…
“General Motors is a huge annuity and health insurance company with a major auto company attached”
Warren Buffett's Most Iconic Interviews Ever, interviewed by Charlie Rose
2023-01-04 USD bearish Warren Buffett · video
US trade deficit forces the country to sell assets and IOUs to fund over-consumption, and the policies sustaining that deficit will cause the dollar to depreciate over time
“the dollar over time will go down because the policies we're following as a country will cause the dollar in my view to decline”
90d +1.3% · 180d -1.4% · 1y -4.1%
Warren Buffett's Most Iconic Interviews Ever, interviewed by Charlie Rose
2020-11-19 SPX bullish Warren Buffett · video
Geopolitical crises including potential wars do not change the long-term value of productive businesses; money loses purchasing power in any major conflict while stocks, farms, and real estate retain value, making equities the right asset to hold through…
“if you tell me all of that's going to happen I will still be buying the stock”
90d +10.1% · 180d +16.0% · 1y +32.8%
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-19 BITCOIN bearish Warren Buffett · video
Bitcoin fails the basic definition of a currency because it is not a durable store of value — goods sellers still price in dollars and merely convert, not price in Bitcoin — making it purely speculative with no monetary function, analogous to tulip bulbs
“I wouldn't be surprised if it's not around in 10 or 20 years”
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-19 IBM owns Warren Buffett · video
IBM is navigating a cloud transition with acceptable financial performance and consistent buybacks that increase per-share value over time; sufficient conviction to hold and add shares despite revenue headwinds, even if certainty is lower than core holdings…
“I feel good about owning the stock”
90d +3.7% · 180d +25.8% · 1y +4.0%
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-19 SPX bullish Warren Buffett · video
US stocks are in a zone of reasonableness relative to current valuations and are clearly preferable to holding long-duration fixed income at these interest rate levels
“I'd be long the stocks”
90d +10.1% · 180d +16.0% · 1y +32.8%
Warren Buffett: Coca-Cola Is Bulletproof | May 5, 2014
2020-11-19 KO bullish Warren Buffett · video
Coke's global brand moat remains intact — three percent of all liquids consumed globally, unit cases growing annually with 100 million more Coke-brand cases year over year — making it a very good business despite domestic health concerns, taxes, and…
“three percent of all the liquids people put in their mouths throughout the whole seven billion people are coca-cola products”
90d -4.9% · 180d +3.9% · 1y +7.0%
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-19 US FREIGHT RAILROADS bullish Warren Buffett · video
All four major US freight railroads possess durable economic advantages — lowest cost per ton-mile for heavy goods over long distances, superior fuel efficiency versus trucking, and environmentally friendlier — over a fixed national infrastructure…
“the future of railroads is very good”
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-19 BANKS bullish Warren Buffett · video
Bank of America has a wonderful deposit franchise and Moynihan has methodically simplified and strengthened the bank through legacy problems not of his own making, positioning it to do well over time
“the bank of america has a wonderful deposit franchise and it will do well over time”
90d +25.7% · 180d +42.1% · 1y +48.4%
Warren Buffett: Coca-Cola Is Bulletproof | May 5, 2014
2020-11-19 long SPX / long USTS hedge Warren Buffett · video
Low-cost S&P 500 index fund captures long-term compounding of American business earnings while a small short-term Treasury allocation acts as a liquidity buffer that prevents forced equity sales during drawdowns when withdrawing 3-4% annually
“put 90 of it in an S&P 500 index fund and 10 in short-term governments”
90d +3.8% · 180d +5.6% · 1y +14.5%
Warren Buffett: People Focus Too Much On The Short-Term | March 3, 2014
2020-11-12 DISTRESSED MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES bullish Warren Buffett · video
Mortgage assets sold at panic prices (e.g. Merrill Lynch selling at 22 cents on the dollar) will generate strong returns for any patient buyer with cheap borrowing costs, as underlying asset values exceed distressed market prices
“if i could take one percent of that 700 billion and be their partner i'd make a lot of money”
Warren Buffett | Charlie Rose | October 1, 2008
2020-11-12 GE bullish Warren Buffett · video
GE is the longest-running Dow component with resilient management and business he understands deeply, and fear-driven prices made it an attractive place to deploy capital
“ge is gonna be around i hope i'm around then too and it was an attractive investment”
90d +30.3% · 180d +49.7% · 1y +54.1%
Warren Buffett | Charlie Rose | October 1, 2008
2020-11-12 BYD bullish Warren Buffett · video
BYD could develop a competitive electric car, representing a long-term growth opportunity in the emerging EV market
“a company called byd that may develop a really good electric car i hope”
90d +60.6% · 180d +89.0% · 1y +85.9%
Warren Buffett | Charlie Rose | October 1, 2008
2020-04-21 ABC bullish Warren Buffett · video
Buffett emerged as the key figure and largest shareholder in the Capital Cities takeover of ABC, indicating a conviction purchase at a price he deemed below intrinsic business value
“he emerged as the key figure in the takeover of ABC by capital cities”
90d +20.0% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +44.1%
Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
2020-04-21 BRK bullish Warren Buffett · video
Buying businesses at prices far below intrinsic value and holding without caring whether the market is open produces superior long-term returns because you own a piece of a real business, not a fluctuating price
“if you buy things for far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them you basically don't lose money”
Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
2020-04-21 IBM neutral Warren Buffett · video
Buffett has never bought a technology company including IBM in 30 years because he cannot accurately value businesses whose future economics he does not understand, and he only swings at pitches within his circle of competence
“I haven't understood any of them... I don't have to make money in every game”
Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
2020-04-21 WPO bullish Warren Buffett · video
The business is independently valuable and can be assessed on fundamentals without needing proximity to Wall Street or Washington, implying it was purchased at a discount to intrinsic value
“I don't need to be in Washington to figure out what the Washington Post newspaper is worth”
Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
2013-07-03 KO bullish Warren Buffett · video
Coke has no taste memory (unlike all other beverages), enabling 5+ daily servings per heavy user, a 1B+ daily serving base growing internationally where per-capita consumption is still low, with pricing power that makes each additional penny worth hundreds of…
“You want to focus on what. If you're right about what you don't have to worry about when very much”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 Japan Equities neutral Warren Buffett · video
Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity (4–6%), making it nearly impossible to earn a satisfactory return as an investor even when borrowing costs are only 1%, because the underlying businesses do not compound well
“It's very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you're in doesn't earn very much money”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 REITS neutral Warren Buffett · video
REITs solve the double-taxation problem but charge ~1–1.5% in operating costs and stock options that eat into an ~8% yield, making direct real estate ownership superior for investors with capital above $1M; management incentives also often run counter to…
“If you have a million dollars you're better off owning the real estate properties yourself”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 MCD neutral Warren Buffett · video
McDonald's has the strongest global position in fast food but is increasingly promotional-dependent rather than product-driven, and unlike beverages, consumers do not want to eat fast food every day — making unit frequency structurally weaker than Coke or…
“People do not want to eat at McDonald's every day”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 G bullish Warren Buffett · video
Gillette sells on product merit without promotional dependency (men buy Mach 3 because they want it, not for a prize), and a couple billion men shave daily creating a predictable, growing, recurring revenue stream
“A couple billion men with their hair growing on their faces — it's growing all night while you sleep”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 INTERNET / DOT-COM STOCKS neutral Warren Buffett · video
Internet companies cannot be valued because the business economics and competitive positions are unknowable at a 10-year horizon, so any price paid is speculation rather than investing
“Anyone that gave me an answer I'd flunk — I don't know how to do it”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 WRIGLEY CHEWING GUM bullish Warren Buffett · video
Internet and technology cannot displace gum chewing, existing brands are entrenched, and a billion dollars could not make a dent in Wrigley's market position — the moat is unassailable
“The internet is not going to change how we chew gum”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-07-03 AIRLINES bearish Warren Buffett · video
Airlines are not attractive businesses regardless of security terms — buying US Air preferred looked good on paper but nearly resulted in total loss because the underlying industry economics are poor, and no entry price makes a bad business a good investment
“I now have an 800 number I call every time I think about buying stock in an airline and they talk me down”
Warren Buffett speaks with Florida University
2013-01-20 BROAD US EQUITY INDEX FUND bullish Warren Buffett · video
The average person cannot reliably pick individual stocks or time the market, but buying a diversified US index fund held over time and dollar-cost averaged will produce satisfactory long-term returns.
“if they can buy all of America through an index fund... they will do fine over time”
Just a regular billionaire

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