The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Joseph Wang's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Joseph Wang is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances —
bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
2026-06-17
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Convergence of massive incoming equity supply (SpaceX lockup unlocks, Anthropic, Google, and Supermicro offerings), market pricing in Fed rate hikes under a hawkish Warsh, high leverage, widespread retail participation, and stretched valuations (SpaceX at…
“I think it will all point to me to a sustained and meaningful decline in risk assets”
90d -2.5%
The Warsh Fed Will Look Nothing Like Before | Joseph Wang
2025-07-30
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Tariffs act as a tax increase, monetary policy is more restrictive than markets expected, and these policies together slow the macro economy toward potentially recessionary outcomes, making risk assets unattractive
“I would stay away from the risk assets... those are going to lead to slower growth potentially even recessionary impacts”
90d -8.6% · 180d -9.8% · 1y -18.2%
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting
2025-07-21
USD
bearish
Hidden Forces · video
Structural dollar weakness driven by three reinforcing forces: perpetual ~$2T fiscal deficit effectively printing dollars, likely politicization of the Fed under a Trump-appointed dovish chair that will structurally lower real rates, and capital flight as…
“the biggest biggest macro trend in the coming years is a structural dollar weakness”
90d -2.1% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -8.1%
Capital Flight, Trade Policy, and the Fate of the Dollar | Joseph Wang
Said again: 2025-07-30 (Forward Guidance)
2025-06-20
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Dollar reserve-currency status is being structurally weakened by large fiscal deficits and policies antagonizing foreign holders, and gold has been the primary beneficiary of this slow-moving trend even while the dollar remains the nominal reserve currency.
“gold just keeps going higher and higher... there's only two things. It's cash and gold”
90d +8.2% · 180d +28.7% · 1y +24.0%
The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-07-30 (Forward Guidance)
2025-03-25
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Trade policy disruption in 2025 is materially more severe than 2018, making a 10% correction just the beginning of a 2018-style 20% peak-to-trough replay
“we'd have a big correction in the market... I don't think that's a big deal, guys”
90d -4.6% · 180d -16.5% · 1y -15.5%
The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-25
USTS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A significant equity market correction will trigger a flight-to-safety bid and force the market to price in aggressive rate cuts, pushing yields down throughout the curve near-term
“I think there's still a good safety bid if we do have a big market correction like I think we have”
90d +1.3% · 180d +3.9% · 1y +4.7%
The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
EM-ification of the US — rampant deficits, fiscal authorities dominating monetary, foreign capital flight cycles — points to structurally higher long-end yields beyond any near-term safety rally
“going forward given all the trappings of EM-ification, we could see higher longer dated yields in the future”
90d +2.3% · 180d -1.0% · 1y -1.1%
The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS
2024-12-18
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Foreign investors hold a near-doubled, historically stretched position in US stocks with almost no FX hedging — dollar weakness triggers a disorderly exodus as currency losses force equity selling
“I'm quite bearish for next year for the US Equity markets”
90d +4.0% · 180d -3.5% · 1y -16.8%
This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang
2024-12-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Market is mispricing the Fed's dovish path — 4-6 cuts likely vs the consensus 2 — making current long-bond yields too high relative to where the Fed will take rates
“rates are too high...I would be bullish and long bonds here”
90d +2.4% · 180d -2.4% · 1y +2.9%
This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang