Investors / stance tracking
What Cem Karsan is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors
51 dated public stances tracked since 2021-04-23, most recently 2026-10-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Cem Karsan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Cem Karsan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
51
tracked stances
23
themes
6
side flips
2026-10-28
last heard
Returns 90d +0.2% 41% correct · 34 calls · 180d -3.1% 35% correct · 31 calls · 1y -5.2% 42% correct · 26 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | long INTC / long MP | basket | -23.3% | — | — |
| 2026-08-02 | SPX | bullish | -0.5% | — | — |
| 2026-06-11 | PHM | bullish | -3.9% | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | BITCOIN | bullish | -15.6% | +6.0% | — |
| 2026-01-21 | USD | bearish | -0.7% | -4.1% | — |
| 2026-01-21 | SPX | bearish | -3.0% | -8.9% | — |
| 2026-01-21 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.3% | +1.7% | — |
| 2026-01-21 | GOLD | owns | -3.2% | -17.1% | — |
| 2025-02-28 | long USTS / short USTS | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | SPX | bearish | +0.4% | -9.5% | -16.9% |
| 2025-02-28 | OIL | bullish | -10.7% | -0.7% | +15.9% |
| 2025-02-28 | GOLD | bullish | +16.1% | +18.8% | +86.1% |
| 2025-02-28 | BITCOIN | bullish | +25.2% | +31.9% | -20.6% |
| 2024-12-17 | long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries | ratio | +0.4% | +3.0% | +2.9% |
| 2024-11-06 | USTS | bearish | -0.7% | -3.3% | -7.7% |
| 2024-11-06 | SPX | bullish | +2.2% | -4.0% | +14.8% |
| 2024-03-14 | USTS | bearish | -0.8% | -7.4% | -4.4% |
| 2024-03-14 | SPX | bullish | +5.5% | +7.2% | +10.7% |
| 2024-01-31 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +7.9% | +1.4% | +4.9% |
| 2024-01-31 | DEFENSE | bullish | +6.1% | +15.2% | +29.3% |
| 2024-01-31 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +4.5% | -0.9% | +3.8% |
| 2024-01-24 | VOL | bullish | -5.5% | -25.0% | -28.6% |
| 2024-01-24 | SPX | bearish | -4.5% | -15.0% | -27.2% |
| 2023-10-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -13.3% | -7.3% | -15.4% |
| 2023-05-02 | BANKS | bearish | -24.5% | -5.2% | -37.7% |
| 2023-04-18 | VOL | bearish | +39.2% | +41.9% | +62.3% |
| 2023-04-18 | SPX | bearish | -9.2% | -6.0% | -22.6% |
| 2023-04-18 | GOLD | bullish | -2.5% | -4.5% | +17.9% |
| 2022-07-07 | VOL | bullish | -8.4% | -34.5% | -70.0% |
| 2022-07-07 | USTS | bearish | +5.2% | +4.4% | +5.0% |
| 2022-07-07 | SPX | bearish | +2.7% | +1.2% | -14.6% |
| 2022-02-08 | VOL | bullish | +36.8% | -10.7% | -40.8% |
| 2021-04-23 | VOL | bullish | -24.3% | -45.4% | -45.5% |
| 2021-04-23 | TSLA | bearish | +11.0% | -18.7% | -36.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 9 | 3 bullish / 6 bearish | 2026-10-19 | |
| VOL | 5 | 4 bullish / 1 bearish | 2024-01-24 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 4 | 4 bearish | 2026-09-29 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-01-21 | |
| USTS | 3 | 3 bearish | 2024-11-06 | |
| BITCOIN | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-04-23 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-28
US POLICY RATES
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
The Fed will skip the expected December hike and turn dovish because structural stress at the long end from hyperscaler borrowing, refinancing and heavy debt issuance will require policy support and a new facility.
“I'm willing to bet that the coming quarter that they're going to price in for December still also will not happen.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 14:05 ET (5 min)
2026-10-28
BROAD EQUITIES
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Equity upside is capped and earnings should decline because insufficient liquidity, heavy leverage, widening CDS spreads, and rising long-term yields will constrain further market gains and capital spending.
“The amount of liquidity that we would need to keep pushing us forward is less likely to keep going.”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-28 14:20 ET (5 min)
Post-op-ex removal of vol and charm flow support creates a window of non-strength, not outright collapse; market is below the 20-day MA, vol is compressed, and the administration is deliberately silent rather than verbally supporting equities — stair-step…
“stair-steps down here would make a lot of sense”
Cem Karsan AI’s Debt Bill Could Hit the Stock Market
2026-10-19
Ai Infra
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Mandatory AI buildout is driving unprecedented negative free cash flow divergence from earnings at hyperscalers, crowding the bond market with new supply; CDS on those names are already blowing out — historically a leading indicator that equity repricing…
“credit risk precedes other risk in markets”
Cem Karsan AI’s Debt Bill Could Hit the Stock Market
2026-10-16
long SPX / short SPX
spread
Cem Karsan · video
Election uncertainty could persist well past November into December/January due to contested-results risk, making Dec/Jan/Feb SPX implied vol cheap relative to November event vol which is priced for a clean outcome
“you can get much cheaper December, January, February vol than you can in November”
The Election Day Vol Trap. Cem Karsan Says the Risk Runs Into December.
2026-09-29
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
A tidal wave of refinancing from 2021 zero-rate debt, persistent inflation, Japanese investors liquidating off-the-run securities, and crowding out from the AI capex boom all structurally push the long end higher until a forced Fed intervention
“the long end of the curve is also only going higher before intervention”
Cem Karsan on Why the Russell and Nasdaq Tell Opposite Stories
2026-08-02
long INTC / long MP
basket
Cem Karsan · video
US industrial policy is in its early innings of directing government capital to strategic companies to compete with China, creating a structural long in government-favored names with more stakes to come
“with the stakes in Intel and MP and all the other companies... you ain't seen nothing yet. This is becoming industrial policy”
90d -23.3%
The Government’s New Plan for Markets with Cem Karsan
A 20% market decline destroys $50T of collateral — dwarfing all COVID QE — so government cannot allow it to happen; sovereign wealth fund buying and debt monetization via the equity channel create a permanent structural bid
“buy equities... support the equity market in that process... it is just too big to fail”
90d -0.5%
The Government’s New Plan for Markets with Cem Karsan
2026-06-11
NON-OBVIOUS / UNSEXY INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Most of the US sovereign wealth fund's projected $10T deployment over the next decade will flow into overlooked, unglamorous infrastructure sectors that the market is not currently pricing in, not into the already-crowded AI and space names
“most of the money will go into things that are not obvious, that people are not investing in right now”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
AI COMPLEX (HEAVILY CALL-POSITIONED TECH STOCKS)
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Massive historic call positioning in AI stocks is decaying as index vol compresses into June OpEx, forcing dealers to unwind long-stock hedges and producing sustained structural selling pressure across the AI complex
“those dealers are short those calls long stock they have to start selling as those calls decay more and more”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
Administration insiders with foreknowledge of sovereign wealth fund allocations create near-term edge in names like Pulte Homes that sit in the path of government strategic investment
“you want to be in Pulte Homes”
90d -3.9%
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
US 10-YEAR YIELD (SHORT)
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Hank Paulson's unsolicited Bloomberg statement warning of an imminent treasury crisis is a deliberate trial balloon from Treasury, signaling that the Fed will backstop the long end of the curve through QE, capping 10-year yields regardless of inflation
“don't think that long end of the curve is going to be allowed to go higher”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
Millennial generation's political rise, their lived experience of tech-driven inequality, and current regulatory tailwinds create sufficient supply/demand and political will to support Bitcoin over the next 5 years
“I am also bullish of Bitcoin...in some short-to-medium term, meaning a couple years, maybe 5 years”
90d -15.6% · 180d +6.0%
Macroeconomic Cycles and the Future of Fiscal Policy: Lyn Alden | U Got Options with Cem Karsan
Said again: 2026-06-11 (Cem Karsan)
The 1962–1982 analog — the closest historical parallel to current populist/inflationary cycle — saw every midterm year produce 20%+ drawdowns (max 45%), and the 2022 midterm already confirmed the pattern at -18.5%/25% drawdown, making 2026 high-risk for a…
“midterms every single one of the midterms during that period had a drawdown of 20% or greater”
90d -3.0% · 180d -8.9%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2026-01-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Deglobalization reduces foreign demand for US bonds while structural fiscal spending drives inflation, and a coming wave of debt refinancing (50% of all debt rolling over the next 3 years at higher rates) creates a structural supply/demand imbalance at the…
“those are not good things for inflation, they're not good for having buyers come and buy, not good for bonds”
90d -0.3% · 180d +1.7%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
Wartime economy and deglobalization drive secular institutional flight to strategic and hard assets, with precious metals as the primary beneficiary of the multi-year trend that began accelerating in 2020.
“we've been adamant about owning long-dated calls and precious metals since the bottom”
90d -3.2% · 180d -17.1%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
Erosion of rule of law and institutional trust has permanently damaged the exorbitant privilege underpinning dollar reserve currency status, and capital is visibly rotating out of US assets as the multipolar world accelerates.
“we have done permanent damage to that”
90d -0.7% · 180d -4.1%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2025-02-28
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Fed cuts collapse the front end while QE/fiscal stimulus rekindles inflation and drives the long end higher, making the steepener the highest-conviction macro trade with leverage
“the steepener is going to be pretty wild”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
Bitcoin is the modern analog to gold's 1968–82 monetary debasement trade and will absorb a meaningful share of the safe-haven/inflation-hedge demand that would otherwise flow to gold in the current inflationary cycle
“Bitcoin takes some of that operation gold this time around”
90d +25.2% · 180d +31.9% · 1y -20.6%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
Market declines destroy collateral and liquidity, triggering recession in a reflexive loop; the Trump admin is deliberately engineering a market selloff to push the 10-year yield lower, with 30–40% peak-to-trough expected over an extended low-vol grind
“if the market goes down we will go into a recession”
90d +0.4% · 180d -9.5% · 1y -16.9%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
Secular monetary debasement and rising inflation make gold a 10–15 year winner analogous to 1968–82, but near-term crowded sentiment and consensus positioning warrant a pullback before the next leg; best held via convex options structures rather than outright…
“for the first time that it's not going to be a straight line”
90d +16.1% · 180d +18.8% · 1y +86.1%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
Dollar weakness plus China demand recovery plus supply constraints from geopolitical risk (Iran, Venezuela) make oil asymmetric to the upside; preferred expression is selling puts because oil moves lower-vol and straight up like in the 1968–82 period, not the…
“right when everybody's sleeping on it right now”
90d -10.7% · 180d -0.7% · 1y +15.9%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-17
long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries
ratio
Wealthion · video
Fed will keep cutting short rates while long rates rise secularly due to entrenched services inflation and fiscal demand-side stimulus, steepening the yield curve
“what we'll see in my estimation is a continued steepening of the yield curve”
90d +0.4% · 180d +3.0% · 1y +2.9%
Cem Karsan on the Return of Populism and a Bleak Market Cycle
2024-12-17
TIPS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Demand-side fiscal spending, tariffs, and tight immigration policy entrench services inflation and will push breakeven inflation expectations higher, forcing the Fed into a bind
“break evens will continue to expand and cause the Fed real concerns, real problems”
Cem Karsan on the Return of Populism and a Bleak Market Cycle
Populism-driven fiscal spending and protectionism mirror the 1960s-70s secular inflation cycle, creating structural upward pressure on long-end yields that the Fed—likely to be replaced with a more dovish chair—cannot ultimately control
“interest rates are starting to accelerate on the longer end of the curve... something we talked about for some time”
90d -0.7% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -7.7%
Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
Said again: 2025-01-23 (Cem Karsan)
Structural options flows—charm, vanna, and structured product unwind from record structured product issuance ($500B→$1T) plus the annual re-leveraging of collateral gains create a reliable mechanical tailwind through early January
“you're a fool to get in front of that”
90d +2.2% · 180d -4.0% · 1y +14.8%
Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
Said again: 2024-12-17 (Wealthion), 2025-01-23 (Cem Karsan)
2024-11-06
OTM
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Implied vol on long-dated OTM calls has reverted to pre-election lows (~10 ball) while the structural year-end upside trend remains intact, offering favorable Vega entry without the time-decay drag of short-dated contracts
“out of the money calls long dated... ball itself is cheap so yeah much better risk adjusted returns”
Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
2024-03-14
short SPX / long SPX / short SPX
other
Cem Karsan · video
March OpEx decay is cheapening front-end vol while long-dated vol supply thins as dealers chase calendar bids, so writing short-dated puts to fund long-dated calls and shorting stock delta-neutralizes the position to harvest the calendar expansion spread
“short put short dated long call long dated short stock that's the trade for the next couple weeks”
Cem Karsan Analyzes Market Volatility
Cyclical fiscal spending and loose monetary policy continue driving inflation higher while the Fed refuses to fight it in an election year, pushing 10-year yields back to 5%
90d -0.8% · 180d -7.4% · 1y -4.4%
Cem Karsan Analyzes Market Volatility
Populist election years with contested races and fiscal stimulus historically average ~21% returns, and 2024 fits the populist template with monetary policy underpinning growth and inflating asset prices despite hot inflation
“this is going to be a positive year”
90d +5.5% · 180d +7.2% · 1y +10.7%
Cem Karsan Analyzes Market Volatility
2024-01-31
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
10-year yields fell from 5%+ to sub-4% in six weeks leaving positioning off-sides; election-year fiscal spending acceleration and Treasury shifting back to longer-duration issuance will push yields structurally higher
“positioning is now a bit off sides to that... in election year you can lean on the fact that you're likely to get more spending and continue to force that higher”
90d +7.9% · 180d +1.4% · 1y +4.9%
Interview w/ Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors
2024-01-31
Commodities Broad
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Secular inflationary regime driven by populism, de-globalization, and fiscal spending mirrors the 1968–1982 period when commodities outperformed while equities lost 70% in real terms
“it's important to look at Commodities as look at the primary spending of money in the 68-82”
90d +4.5% · 180d -0.9% · 1y +3.8%
Interview w/ Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors
2024-01-31
US STARTER HOMES / RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Millennials at only 40% of baby-boomer wealth creation are now the politically dominant demographic cohort, making starter-home policy support and demand a structural tailwind
“real estate you know particularly starter homes you're gonna see policy to back that up”
Interview w/ Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors
Populist politics across both parties guarantees continued large-scale fiscal spending directed at median-income outcomes, making budget-line recipients structural beneficiaries regardless of which party wins the 2024 election
“go on the budget list of the US government and see where the money is being spent... expect that more money's coming that way”
90d +6.1% · 180d +15.2% · 1y +29.3%
Interview w/ Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors
2024-01-24
short SPX / long SPX
pair
Cem Karsan · video
Structured product issuance forces dealers permanently long index gamma, mechanically compressing index realized vol below historical norms while single-stock vol remains at 125-year historical averages, creating a persistent dispersion edge: short index vol…
“that's really created this incredible dispersion trade that's now worked not just one two years but really almost now for seven years eight years in dramatic fashion”
MH+ Ep. 26 Gamma Loop (guest: Cem Karsan)
These 'margin puts' are both leading indicators and reflexive drivers of crashes: when entities can no longer hold short positions due to margin requirements, forced buying of these puts creates a self-reinforcing gamma loop, making them worth multiples of…
“nickels dimes 15s margin type puts on the short end of the curve... those are generally a very very good indicator of a of a crash on its way”
90d -4.5% · 180d -15.0% · 1y -27.2%
MH+ Ep. 26 Gamma Loop (guest: Cem Karsan)
When these ultra-convex VIX calls move from 5-10 cents toward ~50 cents before any market decline, it signals margin-forced short-vol covering is imminent and a gamma cascade is beginning — buying at the pop historically yields 20-100x as they go to $10+
“if you do don't sell them buy them because the next trade they will be worth again dramatically dramatically higher”
90d -5.5% · 180d -25.0% · 1y -28.6%
MH+ Ep. 26 Gamma Loop (guest: Cem Karsan)
Said again: 2024-01-31 (Cem Karsan)
2023-10-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Secular structural inflation driven by fiscal dominance, populism, de-globalization, and labor power is waking up the long end of the yield curve; the Fed cannot contain it with cyclical tools, pointing to 10-year yields eventually breaking above 10% within…
“they'll actually get above 10% here in the next three to four years”
90d -13.3% · 180d -7.3% · 1y -15.4%
Derivatives Driving Market Seasonality | Cem Karsan
Regional banks face self-fulfilling run dynamics compounded by commercial real estate decay that worsens over time, creating downside tail risk that Fed backstops can only temporarily interrupt with rallies
“if there's a run, it can keep on going... it can get ugly”
90d -24.5% · 180d -5.2% · 1y -37.7%
Bank runs are a self-fulfilling prophecy, says Kai Volatility Advisors' Cem Karsan
Dealer positioning (vanna/charm flows) and crowded hedging demand continue to compress realized equity vol below implied, sustaining the short-vol carry trade until positioning clears
“Market down ball down has been an incredible opportunity in index vol space”
90d -9.2% · 180d -6.0% · 1y -22.6%
Cem Karsan from Kai Volatility Advisor on Whalepool with Bobby Chain
Secular inflation regimes historically keep vol elevated in rates, FX, and precious metals for a decade or more, creating persistent buy-the-dip opportunities in these vol products
“buying ball on the dips um in in those products uh in the in the years to come”
90d -2.5% · 180d -4.5% · 1y +17.9%
Cem Karsan from Kai Volatility Advisor on Whalepool with Bobby Chain
Industrial commodity implied vol is structurally overdone in inflationary regimes — historically commodity vol actually falls during these periods and put skew flattens, creating a mispricing on the short side
“industrial Commodities I think have been dramatically overdone in terms of the implied volatility”
90d +39.2% · 180d +41.9% · 1y +62.3%
Cem Karsan from Kai Volatility Advisor on Whalepool with Bobby Chain
2023-04-18
BROAD RISK ASSETS (EQUITIES, 60/40 PORTFOLIO)
neutral
Cem Karsan · video
A 10–15 year secular inflation regime analogous to 1968–1982 means risk assets produce near-zero nominal and deeply negative real returns, making traditional long-beta allocation ineffective
“risk assets are likely to go sideways... real returns were negative 70”
Cem Karsan from Kai Volatility Advisor on Whalepool with Bobby Chain
Secular populism shift forces fiscal redistribution → persistent inflation → rising rates → multiple compression and margin deterioration, mirroring the 1968–1982 period when nominal equity returns were flat and inflation-adjusted returns fell 70%
“populism is not good for stocks... nominally financial markets went nowhere 14 years”
90d +2.7% · 180d +1.2% · 1y -14.6%
Cem Karsan (Kai Volatility Advisors) Speaks Ophir Gottlieb (Capital Market Laboratories)
Interest rates are in a secular normalization driven by inflationary fiscal populism that, once started, is self-reinforcing and nearly impossible for the Fed to reverse without destroying the economy
“interest rates are normalizing... once that happens, multiples come down historically”
90d +5.2% · 180d +4.4% · 1y +5.0%
Cem Karsan (Kai Volatility Advisors) Speaks Ophir Gottlieb (Capital Market Laboratories)
Removal of the Fed liquidity put combined with extreme prior valuations and rising geopolitical competition creates a persistently leptokurtic (fat-tail) regime where risk premiums and realized volatility structurally expand
“we live in an increasingly leptokurtic environment... our tails are fat”
90d -8.4% · 180d -34.5% · 1y -70.0%
Cem Karsan (Kai Volatility Advisors) Speaks Ophir Gottlieb (Capital Market Laboratories)
~500 trillion dollars in global long assets (equities, real estate, commodities) is largely unhedged, creating structural and persistent demand for insurance that makes long volatility a durable carry-trade opportunity on the buy side — the imbalance is…
“500 trillion dollar investments often unsafe, unhedged — long-term properties, that insurance we are needed”
90d +36.8% · 180d -10.7% · 1y -40.8%
Why We All Need Volatility | Volatility Series #10 | feat. Cem Karsan
2021-04-23
short SPX / long SPX
spread
Cem Karsan · video
30-day SPX put skew is structurally overpriced due to concentrated portfolio-manager hedging demand at the one-month horizon; selling that rich near-term skew against cheaper flanking-expiry skew produces a positive-carry trade that remains net long…
“skew swap is a much better risk-adjusted carry trade because it's possible to get long volatility the downside for credit essentially”
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
2021-04-23
long VOL / short SPX
spread
Cem Karsan · video
Dealers over-supplied with SPX index vol pin the index to mean-reversion while idiosyncratic single-name vol stays elevated from retail options demand, creating a persistent and currently wide dispersion spread even in the elevated-VIX February 2021…
“in this environment we've seen an incredible opportunity for dispersion despite vol being quite high”
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
VIX calls deliver the most convex payoff per dollar in acute spike events, making them the most capital-efficient tail-risk instrument when the opportunity set is available
“if you're looking for real convexity those calls on VIX are generally the most bang for your buck for a really convex move”
90d -24.3% · 180d -45.4% · 1y -45.5%
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
Dealers who accumulated long TSLA stock as a delta hedge against massive short-call exposure must mechanically sell that stock once call-buying momentum slows, creating reflexive selling pressure even without a fundamental reversal
“I was able to call essentially the top here right now for the short period in Tesla because all those calls that have been bought dealers are short them and long stocks”
90d +11.0% · 180d -18.7% · 1y -36.8%
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
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