Investors / stance tracking
What Cem Karsan is saying
Founder & CIO, Kai Volatility Advisors
24 dated public stances tracked since 2021-04-23, most recently 2026-08-02. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Cem Karsan's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Cem Karsan is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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24
tracked stances
13
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-02
last heard
Returns 90d -0.3% (n=16) · 180d -4.1% (n=14) · 1y -6.0% (n=10)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SPX — bearish2026-01-21 → bullish2026-08-02
SPX — bullish2024-12-17 → bearish2025-02-28
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-02 | |
| BITCOIN | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-06-11 | |
| AI COMPLEX (HEAVILY CALL-POSITIONED TECH STOCKS) | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-06-11 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2023-05-02 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-01-21 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-01-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-02
SPX
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
A 20% market decline destroys $50T of collateral — dwarfing all COVID QE — so government cannot allow it to happen; sovereign wealth fund buying and debt monetization via the equity channel create a permanent structural bid
“buy equities... support the equity market in that process... it is just too big to fail”
The Government’s New Plan for Markets with Cem Karsan
2026-08-02
long INTC / long MP
basket
Cem Karsan · video
US industrial policy is in its early innings of directing government capital to strategic companies to compete with China, creating a structural long in government-favored names with more stakes to come
“with the stakes in Intel and MP and all the other companies... you ain't seen nothing yet. This is becoming industrial policy”
The Government’s New Plan for Markets with Cem Karsan
2026-06-11
NON-OBVIOUS / UNSEXY INFRASTRUCTURE
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Most of the US sovereign wealth fund's projected $10T deployment over the next decade will flow into overlooked, unglamorous infrastructure sectors that the market is not currently pricing in, not into the already-crowded AI and space names
“most of the money will go into things that are not obvious, that people are not investing in right now”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
AI COMPLEX (HEAVILY CALL-POSITIONED TECH STOCKS)
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Massive historic call positioning in AI stocks is decaying as index vol compresses into June OpEx, forcing dealers to unwind long-stock hedges and producing sustained structural selling pressure across the AI complex
“those dealers are short those calls long stock they have to start selling as those calls decay more and more”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
PHM
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Administration insiders with foreknowledge of sovereign wealth fund allocations create near-term edge in names like Pulte Homes that sit in the path of government strategic investment
“you want to be in Pulte Homes”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
US 10-YEAR YIELD (SHORT)
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Hank Paulson's unsolicited Bloomberg statement warning of an imminent treasury crisis is a deliberate trial balloon from Treasury, signaling that the Fed will backstop the long end of the curve through QE, capping 10-year yields regardless of inflation
“don't think that long end of the curve is going to be allowed to go higher”
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-06-11
BITCOIN
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Administration officials with advance knowledge of sovereign wealth fund asset selection create a short-term edge in assets tangential to their interests, including Bitcoin mining stocks
“you probably want to be in Bitcoin miners uh anything tangential to what the administration knows”
90d +24.3%
Why the AI Trade Is Breaking Down Right Now And What Comes Next
2026-04-23
BITCOIN
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
Millennial generation's political rise, their lived experience of tech-driven inequality, and current regulatory tailwinds create sufficient supply/demand and political will to support Bitcoin over the next 5 years
“I am also bullish of Bitcoin...in some short-to-medium term, meaning a couple years, maybe 5 years”
90d -15.6%
Macroeconomic Cycles and the Future of Fiscal Policy: Lyn Alden | U Got Options with Cem Karsan
2026-01-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Deglobalization reduces foreign demand for US bonds while structural fiscal spending drives inflation, and a coming wave of debt refinancing (50% of all debt rolling over the next 3 years at higher rates) creates a structural supply/demand imbalance at the…
“those are not good things for inflation, they're not good for having buyers come and buy, not good for bonds”
90d -0.3% · 180d +1.7%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2026-01-21
SPX
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
The 1962–1982 analog — the closest historical parallel to current populist/inflationary cycle — saw every midterm year produce 20%+ drawdowns (max 45%), and the 2022 midterm already confirmed the pattern at -18.5%/25% drawdown, making 2026 high-risk for a…
“midterms every single one of the midterms during that period had a drawdown of 20% or greater”
90d -3.0% · 180d -8.9%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2026-01-21
GOLD
owns
Cem Karsan · video
Wartime economy and deglobalization drive secular institutional flight to strategic and hard assets, with precious metals as the primary beneficiary of the multi-year trend that began accelerating in 2020.
“we've been adamant about owning long-dated calls and precious metals since the bottom”
90d -3.2% · 180d -17.1%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2026-01-21
USD
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Erosion of rule of law and institutional trust has permanently damaged the exorbitant privilege underpinning dollar reserve currency status, and capital is visibly rotating out of US assets as the multipolar world accelerates.
“we have done permanent damage to that”
90d -0.7% · 180d -4.1%
Markets Are Entering A Wartime Economy | Cem Karsan
2025-02-28
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Market declines destroy collateral and liquidity, triggering recession in a reflexive loop; the Trump admin is deliberately engineering a market selloff to push the 10-year yield lower, with 30–40% peak-to-trough expected over an extended low-vol grind
“if the market goes down we will go into a recession”
90d +0.4% · 180d -9.5% · 1y -16.9%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
2025-02-28
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is the modern analog to gold's 1968–82 monetary debasement trade and will absorb a meaningful share of the safe-haven/inflation-hedge demand that would otherwise flow to gold in the current inflationary cycle
“Bitcoin takes some of that operation gold this time around”
90d +25.2% · 180d +31.9% · 1y -20.6%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
2025-02-28
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Fed cuts collapse the front end while QE/fiscal stimulus rekindles inflation and drives the long end higher, making the steepener the highest-conviction macro trade with leverage
“the steepener is going to be pretty wild”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
2024-12-17
SPX
bullish
Wealthion · video
End-of-year options roll-off creates structural dealer buying, compressing downside skew and lifting the index; compounded by massive January releveraging flows on a ~30% up year that add $30T of new collateral
“this is a very structurally positive period... hard period to bet against”
Cem Karsan on the Return of Populism and a Bleak Market Cycle
2024-12-17
long USTS / short Long Dur Treasuries
ratio
Wealthion · video
Fed will keep cutting short rates while long rates rise secularly due to entrenched services inflation and fiscal demand-side stimulus, steepening the yield curve
“what we'll see in my estimation is a continued steepening of the yield curve”
90d +0.4% · 180d +3.0% · 1y +2.9%
Cem Karsan on the Return of Populism and a Bleak Market Cycle
2024-11-06
USTS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Populism-driven fiscal spending and protectionism mirror the 1960s-70s secular inflation cycle, creating structural upward pressure on long-end yields that the Fed—likely to be replaced with a more dovish chair—cannot ultimately control
“interest rates are starting to accelerate on the longer end of the curve... something we talked about for some time”
90d -0.7% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -7.7%
Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
2024-11-06
SPX
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Structural options flows—charm, vanna, and structured product unwind from record structured product issuance ($500B→$1T) plus the annual re-leveraging of collateral gains create a reliable mechanical tailwind through early January
“you're a fool to get in front of that”
Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
2023-05-02
BANKS
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Regional banks face self-fulfilling run dynamics compounded by commercial real estate decay that worsens over time, creating downside tail risk that Fed backstops can only temporarily interrupt with rallies
“if there's a run, it can keep on going... it can get ugly”
90d -24.5% · 180d -5.2% · 1y -37.6%
Bank runs are a self-fulfilling prophecy, says Kai Volatility Advisors' Cem Karsan
2021-04-23
VOL
bullish
Cem Karsan · video
VIX calls deliver the most convex payoff per dollar in acute spike events, making them the most capital-efficient tail-risk instrument when the opportunity set is available
“if you're looking for real convexity those calls on VIX are generally the most bang for your buck for a really convex move”
90d -24.3% · 180d -45.4% · 1y -45.5%
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
2021-04-23
TSLA
bearish
Cem Karsan · video
Dealers who accumulated long TSLA stock as a delta hedge against massive short-call exposure must mechanically sell that stock once call-buying momentum slows, creating reflexive selling pressure even without a fundamental reversal
“I was able to call essentially the top here right now for the short period in Tesla because all those calls that have been bought dealers are short them and long stocks”
90d +11.0% · 180d -18.7% · 1y -36.8%
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
2021-04-23
short SPX / long SPX
spread
Cem Karsan · video
30-day SPX put skew is structurally overpriced due to concentrated portfolio-manager hedging demand at the one-month horizon; selling that rich near-term skew against cheaper flanking-expiry skew produces a positive-carry trade that remains net long…
“skew swap is a much better risk-adjusted carry trade because it's possible to get long volatility the downside for credit essentially”
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
2021-04-23
long VOL / short SPX
spread
Cem Karsan · video
Dealers over-supplied with SPX index vol pin the index to mean-reversion while idiosyncratic single-name vol stays elevated from retail options demand, creating a persistent and currently wide dispersion spread even in the elevated-VIX February 2021…
“in this environment we've seen an incredible opportunity for dispersion despite vol being quite high”
Cem Karsan - Insider’s Guide to Volatility Hedges
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