Investors / stance tracking
What Quinn Thompson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & CIO, Lekker Capital
88 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-02, most recently 2026-10-16. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Quinn Thompson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Quinn Thompson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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88
tracked stances
32
themes
23
side flips
2026-10-16
last heard
Returns 90d -0.1% 50% correct · 64 calls · 180d +2.7% 53% correct · 57 calls · 1y +5.4% 51% correct · 55 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | BITCOIN | bullish | +35.7% | — | — |
| 2026-07-03 | Big Tech | bearish | -2.8% | — | — |
| 2026-06-12 | SOFR | owns | +0.9% | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | ETH | bearish | -24.6% | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | BITCOIN | bearish | -9.4% | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | HOUSING | bullish | +8.9% | — | — |
| 2026-04-10 | OIL | bullish | -12.7% | +15.3% | — |
| 2026-04-10 | GOLD | bullish | -13.5% | -14.0% | — |
| 2025-10-24 | SPX | bullish | +2.0% | +5.6% | +14.2% |
| 2025-10-10 | SPX | bearish | -5.9% | -4.1% | -20.4% |
| 2025-10-10 | ETH | bullish | -22.0% | -44.3% | -36.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | BMR | bullish | -29.9% | -48.2% | -34.5% |
| 2025-10-03 | long BITCOIN / short GOLD | pair | -19.4% | -33.4% | -18.4% |
| 2025-09-26 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | +0.1% | -0.2% | -7.5% |
| 2025-09-07 | long GOLD / short GOLD | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-05 | USD | bearish | -2.6% | -3.4% | -5.6% |
| 2025-08-08 | GOLD | bullish | +16.9% | +45.0% | +28.6% |
| 2025-08-08 | BITCOIN | bullish | -13.2% | -37.4% | -44.4% |
| 2025-08-01 | USTS | bearish | -1.8% | -1.8% | -0.8% |
| 2025-07-26 | USD | bullish | +1.5% | +2.1% | +7.6% |
| 2025-07-26 | China Equities | owns | +5.4% | +3.7% | -6.6% |
| 2025-06-28 | Big Tech | bearish | -8.2% | -13.4% | -31.9% |
| 2025-06-20 | SPX | bearish | -11.4% | -13.3% | -26.7% |
| 2025-06-14 | long GOLD / short High Yield | pair | +2.1% | +10.8% | +10.2% |
| 2025-06-14 | long USTS / short USTS | pair | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-05-17 | short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS | pair | +0.4% | -0.7% | +0.9% |
| 2025-05-09 | USTS | owns | +2.3% | +3.9% | +4.2% |
| 2025-05-02 | short MSTR / long BITCOIN | ratio | +8.8% | +21.9% | +17.3% |
| 2025-05-02 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +0.2% | -5.8% | -1.2% |
| 2025-04-18 | USD | bearish | -1.5% | -2.9% | -4.5% |
| 2025-04-14 | long BITCOIN / short ETH | pair | -21.3% | -34.5% | -27.3% |
| 2025-04-14 | HOOD | bullish | +126.5% | +218.7% | +79.2% |
| 2025-04-14 | GOLD | bullish | +4.0% | +27.6% | +50.3% |
| 2025-04-14 | ENERGY | bullish | +12.3% | +10.9% | +45.9% |
| 2025-04-14 | COIN | short | -100.0% | -100.0% | -4.4% |
| 2025-04-11 | XOP | bearish | -23.7% | -26.1% | -60.6% |
| 2025-03-21 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | -3.6% | +1.6% | -0.5% |
| 2025-03-21 | Big Tech | bearish | -9.7% | -23.0% | -23.1% |
| 2025-03-08 | OIL | bullish | +0.7% | +4.6% | +47.2% |
Showing the 40 most recent of 64 scored calls.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SOFR — bullish2026-06-12 → bearish2026-09-11
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2025-09-26 → bearish2026-07-31
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-05-02 → bullish2025-09-26
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 flips.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 7 | 4 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-07-03 | |
| GOLD | 6 | 5 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-20 | |
| USTS | 6 | 2 bullish / 4 bearish | 2026-10-16 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 5 | 2 bullish / 3 bearish | 2026-07-31 | |
| SPX | 5 | 2 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral | 2025-10-24 | |
| USD | 5 | 3 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-09-18 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-16
long USTS / short Ai Infra
pair
Forward Guidance · video
AI infrastructure companies like CoreWeave and CoreScientific are too small relative to hyperscaler balance sheets to be allowed to fail, making their bonds money good on a backstop, but equity holders will face dilution and drawdown through any rescue process
“if Nvidia or any hyperscaler wanted to backstop these guys it would be like you buying a Starbucks”
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Positioning rinse in bonds became extreme after yields rallied hard on hot CPI/PPI, making a short-term reversal trade attractive given the economy remains intact and the Fed has signaled it will not hike in October
“I actually shorted some of the long end today for a trade. I might hold this for a week or two”
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
2026-10-16
EQUAL-WEIGHT EQUITIES / HOUSING STOCKS / REAL ECONOMY SECTORS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Real economy sectors have been sold off 20-40% for eight straight weeks as AI financing crowded out capital; the AI trade cracking and a marginal rate pullback creates a tactical relief window for these sectors before broader slowdown concerns reassert
“if you were going to sell those things, it's probably not going to be after they're already down 20, 30, 40%”
The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup
Mortgage rates structurally 100bps higher with no realistic path back down will continue devastating financing-dependent Main Street sectors, and the debasement/stimulus tools being used to fix it only worsen inflation and push yields higher
“homebuilders, regional banks, equal weight, small caps, utilities, these things are getting decimated”
America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup
US structural advantages in AI leadership and energy production dominate global capital flow determinants, making the dollar the likely beneficiary even in a growth-slowing environment where other macro headwinds weigh
“I kind of I lean towards the dollar moving higher”
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup
2026-09-11
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Three hikes priced into the SOFR curve over the next six to nine months is excessive because hiking that aggressively into $120 oil would devastate equities and trigger a growth scare that would force a reversal
“ripping three hikes into $120 oil — that just sounds like a crazy recession”
The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup
Silver is the high-beta debasement metal that historically follows gold's bull run with a larger spike; the 2026 gold rally should eventually feed into a silver blowup as speculative money rotates into beta metals
“I think it will. It's kind of like in crypto, right”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20
short Big Tech / long GOLD
hedge
Forward Guidance · video
Shorting NASDAQ without long inflation protection fails in a debasement regime because nominal prices rise even as real purchasing power falls; the trade requires pairing the tech short with hard-asset longs so gains on the inflation leg offset a nominal…
“I can make a case to short NASDAQ or other parts of tech here, but that needs to be paired with inflation protection on the long side”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Geopolitical supply tensions combined with the Treasury debasement regime make the broader metals complex (beyond gold — silver, copper, etc.) the preferred inflation-protection vehicle over equities and even Bitcoin
“I continue to like the commodity, the other hard asset complex better just across metals, beta metals, oil”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-09-18 (Forward Guidance)
Strait of Hormuz closure shows no signs of resolution, global crude reserves are being drained to very low levels after six months, China's demand reduction cannot continue indefinitely, and finished products (gasoline, diesel, heating oil) are already…
“you get paid to wait; the positive roll yield creates a carry that helps long investors in oil futures to the tune of 20-plus percent year to date, like almost 30”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
XLE just broke out to new all-time highs, which historically front-ran a large move in the oil commodity itself — the same leading-indicator pattern seen in gold miners front-running gold — and Treasury cannot suppress oil equity prices the way it can drain…
“Look at XLE. It just absolutely tore out to new highs. Last time that happened, it front ran a big big move in oil”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-10-16 (Forward Guidance)
2026-08-20
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE / HOUSING
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Housing is the only asset class where US investors can access 30-year fixed-rate debt at 5x+ leverage without liquidation risk, making it a structurally superior inflation-protection vehicle as Treasury suppresses real rates and debasement of the dollar…
“housing is the only asset you really can get 30-year fixed rate debt at 5x leverage or more in the US and not really have liquidation risk”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-07
Japan Equities
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Fundamental problems in the sector haven't changed — Mag7 cash flows are negative, credit spreads are widening, buybacks exhausted — and the recent bounce was just Treasury/BoJ intervention rinsing an over-levered situational awareness fund, not a true…
“I don't think semis are much of these like Japan, Taiwan, Korea stuff. I don't think it looks that good here”
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-31
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The short rate is not the appropriate tightening lever here; real adjustment must come from letting long-term bond yields rise to fair market value, which is exactly what Warsh's balance sheet reduction focus will drive
“the short rate is not the lever to pull here to achieve what we need to achieve. It's the long end. It's letting long-term bond yields go higher”
90d -0.3%
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-10-02 (Forward Guidance)
Chinese memory supply coming online, open-weight model cost deflation (Qwen 3 matching frontier-model coding capability at a fraction of the cost), and inference substitution effects are simultaneously eroding the demand and pricing assumptions underpinning…
“I'm quite concerned about the exposure to the AI trade right now”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
AI momentum has hit peak positioning and catalysts that once pumped it higher are no longer working, while liquidity wanes and the re-acceleration trade becomes dangerously crowded heading into the next two months
“I would be very cautious here if I was loaded to the gills with tech risk”
90d -2.8%
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-08-07 (Forward Guidance), 2026-08-20 (Forward Guidance)
Strategy's aggressive buying had been suppressing Bitcoin like a beach ball underwater, and simply removing that buying pressure — without needing a fundamental catalyst — is sufficient to produce a tactical bounce off peak bearish sentiment
“all they needed to do was just remove their hand...you don't even need the consideration of whether they're going to be buying”
90d +35.7%
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2026-08-20 (Forward Guidance)
2026-07-03
MAGNIFICENT SEVEN / HYPERSCALERS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Roughly 30% of hyperscaler income this year derived from marking up AI lab private valuations on balance sheets, making them reflexively exposed to an AI unwind — the payers suffer when the receivers trade cracks
“if the receivers trade unwinds that's also not good for the payers which is the hyperscalers”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-12
short Big Tech / long MEMORY / AI INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLIERS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscalers are issuing massive equity and debt (Google $80B, Oracle $40B, SpaceX $75B) to fund AI capex, creating net supply headwind for their own shares while that capex revenue flows directly to AI infrastructure suppliers like memory — buy what the…
“don't touch the hyperscalers buy the things that the hyperscalers are buying funded by the things that they're selling”
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-12
SOFR
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Fed hike pricing is at peak hawkishness — two hikes priced through mid-2027 — and even a flat Fed passively eases as the SOFR market must price out those hikes back to neutral, so the entire asymmetry sits on the easing side regardless of which growth…
“That's why I'm levered long sofur futures”
90d +0.9%
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
Ethereum network usage is rising but token price does not correlate; DAT financial engineering has perverted market structure without providing durable price support, making the asset uninvestable while the network itself is fine
“in the majors, Bitcoin and ETH, you have Ponzi scheme DATs that have just corrupted and perverted the market structure”
90d -24.6%
How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
Corporate DAT buyers (Strategy-style vehicles) have purchased ~$15B of BTC/ETH this year yet both assets are down YTD, proving financial engineering creates no durable bid; absent the passive-flow mechanics that prop equities, crypto is in a genuine bear…
“it's in a bare market like this is what it is. It's in a bare market”
90d -9.4%
How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
Broad cost inflation driven by AI data-center buildout, defense spending, and fiscal expansion is raising replacement costs economy-wide, providing a structural floor under housing prices even as consumer affordability stays stressed
“I think the replacement cost cuz everything around it... the cost of everything is going up”
90d +8.9%
Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup
Central authorities are manipulating sovereign bond markets globally including the US, gold rears its head every time they swap yields down, and continued financial repression makes gold a necessary debasement expression
90d -13.5% · 180d -14.0%
Said again: 2026-07-03 (Forward Guidance)
The market is pricing the Strait closure as resolved ASAP, but physical disruption persists, so buying $70 back-month and waiting for convergence toward $90 by year-end offers 20-25% with far less speculative congestion than front months
“if you're buying $70 back month… if it converges on 90 in November, you're up 20 25% on that trade”
90d -12.7% · 180d +15.3%
Extreme fear indicators (fear/greed at 25, record selling, HY outflows, fourth-largest VIX spike in three years) clash with 85%+ earnings beats, buybacks resuming after blackout, and fiscal/financial conditions easing into 2026, setting up a classic…
“that number you high almost every time and you make money one to three months out”
90d +2.0% · 180d +5.6% · 1y +14.2%
How Financialization Broke Markets & Hollowed Out America | Weekly Roundup
Risk-reward for the large cap index is poor given stretched multiples and 40% concentration in mega-cap AI capex spenders; prefers non-printable debasement assets (commodities, crypto) where the same macro tailwinds apply without the valuation headwind
“the risk-reward for buying a large cap equity index here is very poor”
90d -5.9% · 180d -4.1% · 1y -20.4%
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup
ETH treasury companies are absorbing a larger share of ETH supply in two quarters than Bitcoin treasury companies absorbed in five years, while sentiment and positioning have fully reset—ETH is nobody's crowded trade—and the ETH/BTC ratio mirrors silver/gold…
“ETH treasury companies have accumulated more percent of the ETH network in two quarters than Bitcoin treasury companies didn't in basically five years”
90d -22.0% · 180d -44.3% · 1y -36.0%
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-10
BMR
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
BMR's implied volatility (100–120 vs MSTR's ~50) gives it a structural advantage harvesting premium via converts and ATM offerings while absorbing a disproportionate share of a much smaller ETH market cap, and the BMR/MSTR ratio has not even tested its 50-day…
“why short this one? Like this thing hasn't even sniffed like it's 50-day moving average”
90d -29.9% · 180d -48.2% · 1y -34.5%
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-03
long BITCOIN / short GOLD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin should outperform gold on a 1-3 month view because gold's 15%+ run has left it locally extended while Bitcoin lagged on idiosyncratic crypto headlines now resolved, and crypto tends to rotate leadership once macro aligns
“I think Bitcoin outperforms gold. Gold might be locally topping here”
90d -19.4% · 180d -33.4% · 1y -18.4%
This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-03
long IWM / short MAGNIFICENT 7
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Small caps are set to lead Mag7 in the next quarter because the environment is shifting — Main Street is coming out of recession, rate cuts improve small-cap financing, and the AI-bubble segment is already the most crowded and expensive trade in the market
“I think small caps lead mag seven”
This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-26
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Tactical long initiated because (1) the letter campaign defending Lisa Cook makes a Fed-independence challenge unlikely, preserving the dovish bias, and (2) a potential government shutdown could be used to permanently cut government headcount, creating a…
“I longed some bonds because you have the letter about the Lisa Cook firing”
90d +0.1% · 180d -0.2% · 1y -7.5%
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-07
long GOLD / short GOLD
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Prefer physical gold over gold miners because gold delivers the debasement and real-rate tailwind without the equity beta drag that exposes miners to general equity drawdowns
“I like gold a lot better than gold miners here just because you remove that equity beta from it”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Gold is the Only Trade Left
Dollar is a no-go zone because rate cuts are already fully priced in yet the dollar is not weakening, suggesting the Fed's conventional tools are insufficient and the dollar will face structural selling pressure as the debasement playbook progresses; any…
“I wouldn't touch it... I'd rather just like I think everyone's just ditching everything for gold”
90d -2.6% · 180d -3.4% · 1y -5.6%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
Bitcoin benefits from the same financial repression and fiat debasement dynamic as gold, though with higher correlation to risk-asset multiples and without central bank buying as a structural tailwind
“obviously that has positive readthroughs to Bitcoin as well”
90d -13.2% · 180d -37.4% · 1y -44.4%
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-10-10 (Forward Guidance), 2025-10-17 (Forward Guidance)
Financial repression forces fiat debasement and central banks continue buying gold, while ETF investment demand surged 78% YoY and mine supply grew only 1% despite a 133% price increase over seven years, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance
“everything to me comes back to gold and I just don't see how it's not higher in six to 12 months”
90d +16.9% · 180d +45.0% · 1y +28.6%
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-08-10 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-05 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-07 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-19 (Forward Guidance), 2025-09-26 (Forward Guidance), 2025-10-31 (Forward Guidance)
Copycat ETH/SOL treasury companies are floating near 1x MNAV with their ATM and convertible bond markets both exhausted, every altcoin trends to zero against Bitcoin over time, and sophisticated PIPE participants are openly admitting they buy below NAV and…
“these vehicles are quite grifty exit liquidity”
90d -1.8% · 180d -1.8% · 1y -0.8%
Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-09-11 (Forward Guidance)
TGA refill creates near-term liquidity contraction that is historically dollar-positive, the US retains more rate-cut room while maintaining positive real rates relative to Europe and Japan, and short-dollar positioning is extremely crowded
“the dollar probably bounces from here”
90d +1.5% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +7.6%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-09-26 (Forward Guidance), 2025-10-10 (Forward Guidance)
2025-07-26
China Equities
owns
Forward Guidance · video
China is a relative beneficiary of global trade rerouting as it exports disinflation to Europe and South America, allowing looser monetary policy and relatively stronger economic growth outside the US
“we've been long a bit of China, caught this move on a relative basis”
90d +5.4% · 180d +3.7% · 1y -6.6%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-28
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Equities at all-time-high valuations with no room for multiple expansion face downside risk as economic growth decelerates, unemployment rises, and passive inflows that have kept multiples elevated begin to slow
“I don't think it's as sanguine as of a risk-taking environment as most people believe”
90d -8.2% · 180d -13.4% · 1y -31.9%
Hawkish Fed Projections At Odds With Trump
Said again: 2025-09-19 (Forward Guidance)
2025-06-27
LATIN AMERICA EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Cheaper valuations, better demographic profiles, stronger growth characteristics, and commodity-driven economies provide superior inflation protection and risk-reward versus developed-market alternatives in a weak-dollar fiscal-dominance environment
“cheaper, probably better demographics, better growth characteristics, probably more of their economy is inflation protectant”
The Fed’s New Mandate Is Financing The Deficit | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-20
TIPS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A stagflationary backdrop — the Fed projecting higher inflation and higher unemployment simultaneously while staying on hold — makes inflation-protected securities one of the few assets with a sound risk/reward when both nominal bonds and equities look…
“inflation protected securities, bonds, tips, like things like that”
The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
Stagflationary macro (yields breaking higher from TGA refill, Fed on hold while real rates rise), reversing foreign-capital flows away from US assets, and stretched valuations leave the risk/reward on the short side as the most attractive opportunity over the…
“the most money to be made over the next 12 months is probably on the short side of most assets”
90d -11.4% · 180d -13.3% · 1y -26.7%
The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-08-01 (Forward Guidance)
2025-06-14
long USTS / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Fed will be forced to cut the front end as growth weakens while the long end sells off from TGA refill supply pressure and fiscal dominance, producing a pronounced curve steepening
“one of my highest conviction trades here is long bond short... steepening is the end result”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Unwinding Of The Global U.S Dollar Trade | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-14
long GOLD / short High Yield
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Corporate profits are topping and credit spreads are already at the floor, while gold has multiple structural tailwinds; gold should outperform high yield by 10–20% over the next year on a real-return basis
“gold over HY you're probably going to outperform by a good 10 20% over the next year”
90d +2.1% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +10.2%
The Unwinding Of The Global U.S Dollar Trade | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-17
short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
The coming debt supply glut from an expanding fiscal deficit is a structural short on long-duration bonds, hedged with long 2-year Treasuries to stay protected if the economy slows first and the Fed cuts late into a recession — the steepener pays in either…
“you can bet on the steepener... you're more protected”
90d +0.4% · 180d -0.7% · 1y +0.9%
The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup
Fed cuts are delayed but not eliminated, pushing expectations further out the curve; 2-year has flight-to-safety characteristics if growth disappoints, and today's flat price action confirms the front end prices in eventual easing rather than a permanent…
“long twos on the front end until we get more confidence in cuts”
90d +2.3% · 180d +3.9% · 1y +4.2%
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02
short MSTR / long BITCOIN
ratio
Forward Guidance · video
MSTR's NAV premium over Bitcoin holdings is set to compress because at current premium levels Saylor is incentivized to flood the market with ATM share issuance, diluting the premium, while Bitcoin itself is harder to fade given remaining firepower
“he should be flooring it into coin... I don't like the outlook for the premium from here”
90d +8.8% · 180d +21.9% · 1y +17.3%
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
30-year yield minus 2-year spread is still historically depressed; normal mean reversion implies 100+ bps of curve steepening ahead, and anchoring to low-yield era masks structural upward pressure on long rates
“another over 100 basis points of 30-year over 2-year steepening”
90d +0.2% · 180d -5.8% · 1y -1.2%
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
Dollar strength was built entirely on global capital piling into the US AI safety trade (Mag 7 / hyperscaler CapEx), funded by fiscal excess; as that trade unwinds and tariffs accelerate dollar outflows, the re-rating lower was structural regardless of tariffs
“the dollar re-rating lower was going to happen regardless of tariffs. Tariffs likely sped run it”
90d -1.5% · 180d -2.9% · 1y -4.5%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
Said again: 2025-04-25 (Forward Guidance), 2025-06-27 (Forward Guidance)
2025-04-14
long BITCOIN / short ETH
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin dominance persistently rises because alts carry more downside with only similar or slightly more upside versus BTC, making long BTC / short ETH the cleaner expression
“I continue to believe Bitcoin dominance just goes up and up and up”
90d -21.3% · 180d -34.5% · 1y -27.3%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
In an elevated volatility regime where the Fed may be forced to intervene, gold offers high risk-reward defensive positioning as a haven during market mayhem
“taking very small high risk-reward shots on gold”
90d +4.0% · 180d +27.6% · 1y +50.3%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
Said again: 2025-04-25 (Forward Guidance)
Geopolitical conflict risk and mission-critical infrastructure needs make energy and natural resources a defensive position even in a recession scenario where overall demand falls
“oil and energy and natural resources is going to be a very interesting place”
90d +12.3% · 180d +10.9% · 1y +45.9%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
Regulatory opening ends Coinbase's fee premium as Robin Hood takes retail and traditional prime brokers take institutional, compressing revenue across staking, trading, and custody
“I've been on the other side of that trade more in the last three months”
90d -100.0% · 180d -100.0% · 1y -4.4%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
Robin Hood's more diversified business model and retail crypto positioning makes it a better risk-adjusted expression of crypto volume growth than Coinbase
“I like Hood more than Coin, but for a couple other reasons — it's just a more diversified business”
90d +126.5% · 180d +218.7% · 1y +79.2%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
Bessent-driven energy policy explicitly targets lower oil prices to fight inflation via new supply deals (Alaska, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia), making domestic US producers borderline unprofitable at current price levels
“The loser in all of this is domestic US oil production who's getting clobbered and is borderline unprofitable”
90d -23.7% · 180d -26.1% · 1y -60.6%
The Mastermind Behind Trump’s Trade War
2025-03-21
Big Tech
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
For the first time since Covid, fiscal retrenchment and zero Fed liquidity support create genuine downside earnings risk, not just a technical deleveraging, so equity rallies should be sold rather than bought
“selling upside when on rallies and being long bonds until they're forced to pivot”
90d -9.7% · 180d -23.0% · 1y -23.1%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
Said again: 2025-04-18 (Forward Guidance)
2025-03-21
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Fed and Treasury are explicitly aligned on suppressing yields and are willing to accept economic pain, with no liquidity impulse to support risk assets, making duration the high-conviction play until the Fed is forced to pivot
“longing duration bonds TLT edv type of 10 to 30 year until the FED blinks and cuts”
90d -3.6% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -0.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-14
long EUROPEAN / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES / short Big Tech
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal unshackling in Europe and Japan (surging sovereign yields, defense-driven spending) represents a multi-year structural reversal of US exceptionalism that markets are underpricing because capital is still concentrated on one side of the boat and large…
“the easy money's done but I feel like the trend is just beginning”
Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup
Buying crude in the mid-60s range while collecting a consistent 2–8% annualized positive roll yield from backwardation makes the range-trade compelling even without a trending market
“buying mid 60s and selling mid to high 70s and collecting like a 2 to 8% annualized roll yield it's like it's compelling”
90d +0.7% · 180d +4.6% · 1y +47.2%
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
Showing the 60 most recent of 88 tracked stances.
Idea Scout Weekly
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