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Investors / stance tracking

What Quinn Thompson is saying

Founder & CIO, Lekker Capital

91 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-02, most recently 2026-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Quinn Thompson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Quinn Thompson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.

91
tracked stances
26
themes
16
side flips
2026-08-27
last heard
Returns  90d +4.5% (n=100) · 180d +6.9% (n=92) · 1y +12.4% (n=78)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2025-09-26 → bearish2026-07-31
BITCOIN — bearish2026-05-29 → bullish2026-07-03
BITCOIN — bullish2025-08-08 → bearish2026-05-29
SPX — bearish2025-10-10 → bullish2025-10-24
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-05-02 → bullish2025-09-26
USTS — bullish2025-05-09 → bearish2025-09-11
BITCOIN — bearish2025-02-07 → bullish2025-08-08
SPX — bullish2025-01-31 → bearish2025-08-01
USTS — bearish2025-04-14 → bullish2025-05-09
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2025-03-21 → bearish2025-05-02

Showing the 10 most recent of 16 flips.

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
GOLD1312 bullish / 1 bearish2026-08-20
BITCOIN129 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-20
Big Tech66 bearish2026-08-20
Long Dur Treasuries62 bullish / 4 bearish2026-07-31
USTS62 bullish / 4 bearish2025-09-11
SPX52 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral2025-10-24

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-27 SILVER bullish Forward Guidance · video
Silver is the high-beta debasement metal that historically follows gold's bull run with a larger spike; the 2026 gold rally should eventually feed into a silver blowup as speculative money rotates into beta metals
“I think it will. It's kind of like in crypto, right”
Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 OIL bullish Forward Guidance · video
Strait of Hormuz closure shows no signs of resolution, global crude reserves are being drained to very low levels after six months, China's demand reduction cannot continue indefinitely, and finished products (gasoline, diesel, heating oil) are already…
“you get paid to wait; the positive roll yield creates a carry that helps long investors in oil futures to the tune of 20-plus percent year to date, like almost 30”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Semis appear to be forming a right shoulder (technical topping pattern) and the Anthropic IPO in October could mark a sentiment peak — analogous to how the SpaceX IPO marked a top — as peak AI capex spending is near
“I still don't like tech. I think semis are probably putting in a right shoulder if I were to guess”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is a commodity and every Treasury/Fed debasement intervention historically triggers a move in it; as a hard asset it benefits from the same dollar-debasement dynamics as metals, confirmed by the $1.27B short liquidation today
“Bitcoin is a commodity in my view and I think that today's move started to make sense”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 ENERGY bullish Forward Guidance · video
XLE just broke out to new all-time highs, which historically front-ran a large move in the oil commodity itself — the same leading-indicator pattern seen in gold miners front-running gold — and Treasury cannot suppress oil equity prices the way it can drain…
“Look at XLE. It just absolutely tore out to new highs. Last time that happened, it front ran a big big move in oil”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Geopolitical supply tensions combined with the Treasury debasement regime make the broader metals complex (beyond gold — silver, copper, etc.) the preferred inflation-protection vehicle over equities and even Bitcoin
“I continue to like the commodity, the other hard asset complex better just across metals, beta metals, oil”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE / HOUSING bullish Forward Guidance · video
Housing is the only asset class where US investors can access 30-year fixed-rate debt at 5x+ leverage without liquidation risk, making it a structurally superior inflation-protection vehicle as Treasury suppresses real rates and debasement of the dollar…
“housing is the only asset you really can get 30-year fixed rate debt at 5x leverage or more in the US and not really have liquidation risk”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-20 short Big Tech / long GOLD hedge Forward Guidance · video
Shorting NASDAQ without long inflation protection fails in a debasement regime because nominal prices rise even as real purchasing power falls; the trade requires pairing the tech short with hard-asset longs so gains on the inflation leg offset a nominal…
“I can make a case to short NASDAQ or other parts of tech here, but that needs to be paired with inflation protection on the long side”
Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-07 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscaler equity fundamentals are deteriorating — negative free cash flow as CapEx overwhelms operating cash flow, widening credit spreads, no buyback capacity — and policy band-aids only suppress vol temporarily without fixing the underlying slow bleed.
“there's no buybacks left for the Meg 7. Their cash flows are negative. Their credit spreads are widening”
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-08-07 Japan Equities bearish Forward Guidance · video
Fundamental problems in the sector haven't changed — Mag7 cash flows are negative, credit spreads are widening, buybacks exhausted — and the recent bounce was just Treasury/BoJ intervention rinsing an over-levered situational awareness fund, not a true…
“I don't think semis are much of these like Japan, Taiwan, Korea stuff. I don't think it looks that good here”
Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-31 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Forward Guidance · video
The short rate is not the appropriate tightening lever here; real adjustment must come from letting long-term bond yields rise to fair market value, which is exactly what Warsh's balance sheet reduction focus will drive
“the short rate is not the lever to pull here to achieve what we need to achieve. It's the long end. It's letting long-term bond yields go higher”
The AI Unwind And Warsh's Long-End Gamble | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-17 DRAM bearish Forward Guidance · video
Chinese memory supply coming online, open-weight model cost deflation (Qwen 3 matching frontier-model coding capability at a fraction of the cost), and inference substitution effects are simultaneously eroding the demand and pricing assumptions underpinning…
“I'm quite concerned about the exposure to the AI trade right now”
The AI Unwind Is Forcing A Historic Market Rotation | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Strategy's aggressive buying had been suppressing Bitcoin like a beach ball underwater, and simply removing that buying pressure — without needing a fundamental catalyst — is sufficient to produce a tactical bounce off peak bearish sentiment
“all they needed to do was just remove their hand...you don't even need the consideration of whether they're going to be buying”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 MAGNIFICENT SEVEN / HYPERSCALERS bearish Forward Guidance · video
Roughly 30% of hyperscaler income this year derived from marking up AI lab private valuations on balance sheets, making them reflexively exposed to an AI unwind — the payers suffer when the receivers trade cracks
“if the receivers trade unwinds that's also not good for the payers which is the hyperscalers”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
US deficits at 6% of GDP with climbing debt and ongoing issuance manipulation sustain the debasement trade, while fading Fed hawkishness removes the key headwind for precious metals
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-07-03 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
AI momentum has hit peak positioning and catalysts that once pumped it higher are no longer working, while liquidity wanes and the re-acceleration trade becomes dangerously crowded heading into the next two months
“I would be very cautious here if I was loaded to the gills with tech risk”
The AI Trade Is Finally Cracking | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-12 SOFR owns Forward Guidance · video
Fed hike pricing is at peak hawkishness — two hikes priced through mid-2027 — and even a flat Fed passively eases as the SOFR market must price out those hikes back to neutral, so the entire asymmetry sits on the easing side regardless of which growth…
“That's why I'm levered long sofur futures”
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-06-12 short Big Tech / long MEMORY / AI INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLIERS pair Forward Guidance · video
Hyperscalers are issuing massive equity and debt (Google $80B, Oracle $40B, SpaceX $75B) to fund AI capex, creating net supply headwind for their own shares while that capex revenue flows directly to AI infrastructure suppliers like memory — buy what the…
“don't touch the hyperscalers buy the things that the hyperscalers are buying funded by the things that they're selling”
Policy Intervention Is Keeping The Bull Market Alive | Weekly Roundup
2026-05-29 ETH bearish Forward Guidance · video
Ethereum network usage is rising but token price does not correlate; DAT financial engineering has perverted market structure without providing durable price support, making the asset uninvestable while the network itself is fine
“in the majors, Bitcoin and ETH, you have Ponzi scheme DATs that have just corrupted and perverted the market structure”
90d -24.6%
How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
2026-05-29 BITCOIN bearish Forward Guidance · video
Corporate DAT buyers (Strategy-style vehicles) have purchased ~$15B of BTC/ETH this year yet both assets are down YTD, proving financial engineering creates no durable bid; absent the passive-flow mechanics that prop equities, crypto is in a genuine bear…
“it's in a bare market like this is what it is. It's in a bare market”
90d -9.4%
How To Trade The AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup
2026-05-21 HOUSING bullish Forward Guidance · video
Broad cost inflation driven by AI data-center buildout, defense spending, and fiscal expansion is raising replacement costs economy-wide, providing a structural floor under housing prices even as consumer affordability stays stressed
“I think the replacement cost cuz everything around it... the cost of everything is going up”
90d +8.9%
Can The AI Driven Rally Continue? | Weekly Roundup
2026-04-10 OIL bullish video
The market is pricing the Strait closure as resolved ASAP, but physical disruption persists, so buying $70 back-month and waiting for convergence toward $90 by year-end offers 20-25% with far less speculative congestion than front months
“if you're buying $70 back month… if it converges on 90 in November, you're up 20 25% on that trade”
90d -12.7%
2026-04-10 GOLD bullish video
Central authorities are manipulating sovereign bond markets globally including the US, gold rears its head every time they swap yields down, and continued financial repression makes gold a necessary debasement expression
90d -13.5%
2025-10-24 SPX bullish Forward Guidance · video
Extreme fear indicators (fear/greed at 25, record selling, HY outflows, fourth-largest VIX spike in three years) clash with 85%+ earnings beats, buybacks resuming after blackout, and fiscal/financial conditions easing into 2026, setting up a classic…
“that number you high almost every time and you make money one to three months out”
90d +2.0% · 180d +5.6%
How Financialization Broke Markets & Hollowed Out America | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-10 SPX bearish Forward Guidance · video
Risk-reward for the large cap index is poor given stretched multiples and 40% concentration in mega-cap AI capex spenders; prefers non-printable debasement assets (commodities, crypto) where the same macro tailwinds apply without the valuation headwind
“the risk-reward for buying a large cap equity index here is very poor”
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-03 long BITCOIN / short GOLD pair Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin should outperform gold on a 1-3 month view because gold's 15%+ run has left it locally extended while Bitcoin lagged on idiosyncratic crypto headlines now resolved, and crypto tends to rotate leadership once macro aligns
“I think Bitcoin outperforms gold. Gold might be locally topping here”
90d -19.4% · 180d -33.4%
This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup
2025-10-03 long IWM / short MAGNIFICENT 7 pair Forward Guidance · video
Small caps are set to lead Mag7 in the next quarter because the environment is shifting — Main Street is coming out of recession, rate cuts improve small-cap financing, and the AI-bubble segment is already the most crowded and expensive trade in the market
“I think small caps lead mag seven”
This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-26 Long Dur Treasuries owns Forward Guidance · video
Tactical long initiated because (1) the letter campaign defending Lisa Cook makes a Fed-independence challenge unlikely, preserving the dovish bias, and (2) a potential government shutdown could be used to permanently cut government headcount, creating a…
“I longed some bonds because you have the letter about the Lisa Cook firing”
90d +0.1% · 180d -0.2%
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-26 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Structural dollar debasement and declining foreign recycling of USD into US assets forces capital into gold as a reserve alternative; built a strong bullish case in July and August investor letters and still holds the structural view despite taking some chips…
“I still think this thing's going to run for a while”
90d +20.2% · 180d +20.1%
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-26 USD bullish Forward Guidance · video
CFTC net dollar short positioning is at multi-decade extremes while interest rate differentials are very low, making a short-squeeze highly probable in the near term; structurally dollar goes lower but tactically the trade is dangerously crowded on the short…
“there's a ton of shorts here to be squeezed out... I wouldn't want to be short dollar here”
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-19 GOLD owns Forward Guidance · video
Every major central bank faces an endgame of printing over fiat currency to sustain nominal growth — Japan runs 3.5% inflation with rates below 0.5% — yet global central banks are the largest buyers of gold while legacy gold funds have shut down, leaving it…
“I just sleep so easy at night owning gold”
90d +17.5% · 180d +31.1%
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-19 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Mag 7 represents 30%+ of the S&P at extreme valuations while a hot inflation print could steepen the yield curve and reprice them lower; a dollar that may be bottoming creates headwind given the recent strong negative correlation between dollar strength and…
“it's a very dangerous place to be long mag seven is kind of my view”
90d -1.7% · 180d +0.5%
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-11 USTS bearish Forward Guidance · video
With fiscal deficits running at 6%+ annually, rate cuts poised to reignite inflation, and the crowding-out of private-sector growth, locking into 4% 10-year paper is a losing trade in real terms—physical goods may preserve purchasing power better.
“it makes you want to vomit when you think about buying a 10-year piece of paper from the US government”
90d -0.1% · 180d -1.0%
The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup
2025-09-07 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Global central banks are ditching and not recycling into US Treasuries while buying gold, real rates are likely to fall toward zero matching the rest of the world, and institutional investors are massively underweight despite two years of outperformance — all…
“I'm not buying Ponzi Treasury companies. The only thing that made sense to me is gold”
90d +15.1% · 180d +41.4% · 1y +19.4%
Gold is the Only Trade Left
2025-09-07 long GOLD / short GOLD pair Forward Guidance · video
Prefer physical gold over gold miners because gold delivers the debasement and real-rate tailwind without the equity beta drag that exposes miners to general equity drawdowns
“I like gold a lot better than gold miners here just because you remove that equity beta from it”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
Gold is the Only Trade Left
2025-09-05 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Negative real rates dynamic in a stagflationary, growth-scare environment makes gold the one asset that front-runs the policy solution, with the only real downside being a margin-call liquidation event that can be hedged with equity beta
“I do really like the idea of owning gold in that situation because of that negative real rates dynamic”
90d +16.9% · 180d +42.5% · 1y +20.7%
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-10 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Ongoing tariff uncertainty has baked in a risk premium that persists regardless of outcome — and if tariffs are overturned the resulting deficit blowout is structurally bullish for gold, which is also supported by persistent central bank buying absent in…
“I just don't see how it's not higher in 6 to 12 months”
90d +22.6% · 180d +47.6% · 1y +30.5%
What if the U.S. is Forced to REIMBURSE Tariffs?
2025-08-08 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Financial repression forces fiat debasement and central banks continue buying gold, while ETF investment demand surged 78% YoY and mine supply grew only 1% despite a 133% price increase over seven years, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance
“everything to me comes back to gold and I just don't see how it's not higher in six to 12 months”
90d +16.9% · 180d +45.0% · 1y +28.6%
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-08 BITCOIN bullish Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin benefits from the same financial repression and fiat debasement dynamic as gold, though with higher correlation to risk-asset multiples and without central bank buying as a structural tailwind
“obviously that has positive readthroughs to Bitcoin as well”
90d -13.2% · 180d -37.4% · 1y -44.4%
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
2025-08-01 SPX bearish Forward Guidance · video
Near-term August seasonal weakness combined with JPMorgan squeeze sentiment at 2021 highs and retail options comprising over 20% of total market justifies moving to cash through Labor Day
“I took some profits. I'm chilling cash. I'm not touching anything until Labor Day”
Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-26 USD bullish Forward Guidance · video
TGA refill creates near-term liquidity contraction that is historically dollar-positive, the US retains more rate-cut room while maintaining positive real rates relative to Europe and Japan, and short-dollar positioning is extremely crowded
“the dollar probably bounces from here”
90d +1.5% · 180d +2.1% · 1y +7.6%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-07-26 China Equities owns Forward Guidance · video
China is a relative beneficiary of global trade rerouting as it exports disinflation to Europe and South America, allowing looser monetary policy and relatively stronger economic growth outside the US
“we've been long a bit of China, caught this move on a relative basis”
90d +5.4% · 180d +3.7% · 1y -6.6%
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-27 LATIN AMERICA EQUITIES bullish Forward Guidance · video
Cheaper valuations, better demographic profiles, stronger growth characteristics, and commodity-driven economies provide superior inflation protection and risk-reward versus developed-market alternatives in a weak-dollar fiscal-dominance environment
“cheaper, probably better demographics, better growth characteristics, probably more of their economy is inflation protectant”
The Fed’s New Mandate Is Financing The Deficit | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-20 TIPS bullish Forward Guidance · video
A stagflationary backdrop — the Fed projecting higher inflation and higher unemployment simultaneously while staying on hold — makes inflation-protected securities one of the few assets with a sound risk/reward when both nominal bonds and equities look…
“inflation protected securities, bonds, tips, like things like that”
The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-14 long USTS / short USTS pair Forward Guidance · video
Fed will be forced to cut the front end as growth weakens while the long end sells off from TGA refill supply pressure and fiscal dominance, producing a pronounced curve steepening
“one of my highest conviction trades here is long bond short... steepening is the end result”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0% · 1y +0.0%
The Unwinding Of The Global U.S Dollar Trade | Weekly Roundup
2025-06-14 long GOLD / short High Yield pair Forward Guidance · video
Corporate profits are topping and credit spreads are already at the floor, while gold has multiple structural tailwinds; gold should outperform high yield by 10–20% over the next year on a real-return basis
“gold over HY you're probably going to outperform by a good 10 20% over the next year”
90d +2.1% · 180d +10.8% · 1y +10.2%
The Unwinding Of The Global U.S Dollar Trade | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-17 short Long Dur Treasuries / long USTS pair Forward Guidance · video
The coming debt supply glut from an expanding fiscal deficit is a structural short on long-duration bonds, hedged with long 2-year Treasuries to stay protected if the economy slows first and the Fed cuts late into a recession — the steepener pays in either…
“you can bet on the steepener... you're more protected”
90d +0.4% · 180d -0.7% · 1y +0.9%
The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-09 USTS owns Forward Guidance · video
Fed cuts are delayed but not eliminated, pushing expectations further out the curve; 2-year has flight-to-safety characteristics if growth disappoints, and today's flat price action confirms the front end prices in eventual easing rather than a permanent…
“long twos on the front end until we get more confidence in cuts”
90d +2.3% · 180d +3.9% · 1y +4.2%
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02 Long Dur Treasuries bearish Forward Guidance · video
30-year yield minus 2-year spread is still historically depressed; normal mean reversion implies 100+ bps of curve steepening ahead, and anchoring to low-yield era masks structural upward pressure on long rates
“another over 100 basis points of 30-year over 2-year steepening”
90d +0.2% · 180d -5.8% · 1y -1.2%
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
2025-05-02 short MSTR / long BITCOIN ratio Forward Guidance · video
MSTR's NAV premium over Bitcoin holdings is set to compress because at current premium levels Saylor is incentivized to flood the market with ATM share issuance, diluting the premium, while Bitcoin itself is harder to fade given remaining firepower
“he should be flooring it into coin... I don't like the outlook for the premium from here”
90d +8.8% · 180d +21.9% · 1y +17.3%
The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-25 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
Bond curve steepening and broad fiat debasement across all currencies erode real purchasing power, creating a structurally favorable backdrop for gold that makes it difficult to call a top despite crowded positioning
“fiat all fiat getting crushed... you're losing real purchasing power right there if you're not in it”
90d +1.8% · 180d +23.8% · 1y +41.1%
Inflation Expectations Are Already Unanchored | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-18 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
Mag 7 became 40% of S&P on a reflexive AI safety trade funded by dollar inflows; that concentration is unwinding as fiscal excess headwinds are handed to the new administration and the global AI CapEx boom trade reverses
“these are the reasons I was bearish Mag 7, bearish US stocks going into the year”
90d -29.9% · 180d -39.4% · 1y -50.1%
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-14 GOLD bullish Forward Guidance · video
In an elevated volatility regime where the Fed may be forced to intervene, gold offers high risk-reward defensive positioning as a haven during market mayhem
“taking very small high risk-reward shots on gold”
90d +4.0% · 180d +27.6% · 1y +50.3%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
2025-04-14 ENERGY bullish Forward Guidance · video
Geopolitical conflict risk and mission-critical infrastructure needs make energy and natural resources a defensive position even in a recession scenario where overall demand falls
“oil and energy and natural resources is going to be a very interesting place”
90d +12.2% · 180d +10.9% · 1y +45.9%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
2025-04-14 USTS bearish Forward Guidance · video
In a decoupling, multipolar world the cost of capital rises globally, making sovereign bonds of any country unattractive as an income alternative
“I don't like sovereign bonds of any country because I think the cost of capital globally rises”
90d -1.0% · 180d -4.9% · 1y -5.6%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
2025-04-14 long BITCOIN / short ETH pair Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin dominance persistently rises because alts carry more downside with only similar or slightly more upside versus BTC, making long BTC / short ETH the cleaner expression
“I continue to believe Bitcoin dominance just goes up and up and up”
90d -21.3% · 180d -34.5% · 1y -27.3%
The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next?
2025-04-11 XOP bearish Forward Guidance · video
Bessent-driven energy policy explicitly targets lower oil prices to fight inflation via new supply deals (Alaska, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia), making domestic US producers borderline unprofitable at current price levels
“The loser in all of this is domestic US oil production who's getting clobbered and is borderline unprofitable”
90d -23.7% · 180d -26.0% · 1y -60.6%
The Mastermind Behind Trump’s Trade War
2025-03-21 Long Dur Treasuries owns Forward Guidance · video
Fed and Treasury are explicitly aligned on suppressing yields and are willing to accept economic pain, with no liquidity impulse to support risk assets, making duration the high-conviction play until the Fed is forced to pivot
“longing duration bonds TLT edv type of 10 to 30 year until the FED blinks and cuts”
90d -3.6% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -0.5%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-21 Big Tech bearish Forward Guidance · video
For the first time since Covid, fiscal retrenchment and zero Fed liquidity support create genuine downside earnings risk, not just a technical deleveraging, so equity rallies should be sold rather than bought
“selling upside when on rallies and being long bonds until they're forced to pivot”
90d -9.7% · 180d -23.0% · 1y -23.1%
The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
2025-03-14 long EUROPEAN / INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES / short Big Tech pair Forward Guidance · video
Fiscal unshackling in Europe and Japan (surging sovereign yields, defense-driven spending) represents a multi-year structural reversal of US exceptionalism that markets are underpricing because capital is still concentrated on one side of the boat and large…
“the easy money's done but I feel like the trend is just beginning”
Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup

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