Investors / stance tracking
What Jared Dillian is saying
Author, The Daily Dirtnap
33 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-21, most recently 2026-08-05. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jared Dillian's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jared Dillian is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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33
tracked stances
14
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-05
last heard
Returns 90d +5.2% (n=34) · 180d +6.4% (n=34) · 1y +6.7% (n=34)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
USTS — bearish2024-10-22 → bullish2024-12-10
GOLD — bearish2024-08-21 → bullish2024-10-22
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities Broad | 5 | 5 bullish | 2025-04-04 | |
| USTS | 5 | 1 bullish / 4 bearish | 2024-12-10 | |
| OIL | 3 | 3 bullish | 2024-10-26 | |
| USD | 3 | 3 bearish | 2025-04-04 | |
| GOLD | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2024-10-22 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 2 | 2 bearish | 2025-01-21 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-05
CONSUMER STAPLES EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Staples look constructive as a defensive rotation play; liking staples and healthcare together implies a broadly bearish macro view on cyclicals
“if you like staples and healthcare, then you're generally negative on everything else”
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
2026-08-05
BANKS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Financials are technically topping — the sector is extended at the highs and Dillian is bearish based on chart analysis alone
“I'm bearish on financials. I think financials are topping. Could be wrong.”
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
2026-08-05
HEALTHCARE EQUITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Healthcare offers defensive exposure in a weakening tape; it has been showing relative strength and Dillian treats it as a safe-harbor sector alongside staples
“healthcare has looked good for a while. Staples look good.”
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
2026-08-05
long SOFR / short USTS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Warsh is intentionally steepening the yield curve by holding short rates flat, which will drive Fed funds toward 3% while the long end stays elevated — a 6-12 month steepener
“I think the curve's going to steepen for the next 6 to 12 months”
The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian
2025-04-04
USD
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The dollar is entering a multi-year bear cycle similar to the mid-2000s, though the first 8-9% leg is largely complete and near-term the trade should be closed before resuming the structural short
“I'm a dollar bear for the long term, I think it's going to go down for three to five years, much like the mid-2000s”
90d +4.5% · 180d +2.7% · 1y -1.8%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-04
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is holding near 83K despite QQQ falling 20% into bear market territory because institutional ETF buyers are consistently absorbing dips with minimal net outflows, and the coiling price action suggests a 50% upside move is ahead
“coiling up like it's going to move 50% quickly at some point”
90d +30.9% · 180d +41.6% · 1y -19.7%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-04
COPPER
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Chronic underinvestment in base metals has created a structural opportunity in copper and related commodities, even if entry timing may be 2-6 months early
“I do like the broader base metals play looping like copper and other things into that”
90d +16.0% · 180d +9.6% · 1y +24.6%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-04
Commodities Broad
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
The two-day massive selloff in the commodity index is technically exhausted — the BCOM registered a DeMark 13 exhaustion signal the day before the collapse, pointing to a near-term mean reversion
“I think the commodity correction is way overdone”
90d +6.3% · 180d +7.4% · 1y +45.4%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
2025-01-21
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Trump administration's deficit-expanding policies and tax-cut extension talk will frighten bond markets, pushing yields to a new higher high before any top is in
“I don't think we put in a top in yields just yet, almost but not quite”
90d +1.2% · 180d +0.1% · 1y -3.7%
Trump, The Fed, and 2025’s Coming Financial Rollercoaster | Jared Dillian
2024-12-10
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
Dollar is at least 20% overvalued on purchasing power parity and the Trump administration — with JD Vance as VP — will not tolerate tariff-driven dollar strength, making jawboning or direct currency intervention likely
“the dollar is at least 20% overvalued”
90d +1.2% · 180d +4.8% · 1y +2.6%
Jared Dillian: Why Trump’s Pro-Growth Policies Could Backfire on Markets
2024-12-10
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Post-election bond selloff assumed Trump would blow out the deficit like his first term, but Bessent's deficit focus and small-government instincts mean yields have more near-term downside from ~4.15% on the 10-year
“I'm bullish in the short term I think rates are going to come down in the short term”
90d +1.2% · 180d +0.8% · 1y +5.7%
Jared Dillian: Why Trump’s Pro-Growth Policies Could Backfire on Markets
2024-12-10
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Commodities are forming a base after a September rally and will re-accelerate as anticipated dollar devaluation by the Trump administration and continued China stimulus (which already caused a commodity spike in September) provide twin catalysts
“I don't think Commodities are going to make lower lows — I'm pretty comfortable saying that”
90d +3.6% · 180d +2.9% · 1y +9.9%
Jared Dillian: Why Trump’s Pro-Growth Policies Could Backfire on Markets
2024-10-26
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
The Fed cutting 50bps with unemployment at 4.1% risks re-igniting inflation that never fully subsided, making long bonds mispriced; the 10-year should reach 4.5-5% and 30-year bonds face another 8-10% price decline from current levels
“30-year money at less than 4% going into an election where you're going to have mounds of issuance — that didn't make any sense to me”
90d +4.1% · 180d +1.9% · 1y -4.3%
Market Recap: Gold to $9,000 | Bullish Silver | U.S. Elections Market Impact | Fed Outlook
2024-10-26
OIL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Oil demand is at all-time highs while geopolitical risk around an Israeli strike on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities is persistent and likely underpriced; current ~$70-71 pricing reflects a Netanyahu headline that Israel will not strike Iran's oil…
“I think of course they're going to strike their oil facilities — I think they're trying to de-escalate Iran and the whole world”
90d +13.0% · 180d -2.8% · 1y +3.8%
Market Recap: Gold to $9,000 | Bullish Silver | U.S. Elections Market Impact | Fed Outlook
2024-10-26
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Commodities are heading higher driven by persistent geopolitical risk, structural demand for post-conflict reconstruction in Ukraine and Gaza, and global demand remaining at all-time highs
“Commodities are going up for sure, I'm super bullish”
90d +5.6% · 180d +1.2% · 1y +8.2%
Market Recap: Gold to $9,000 | Bullish Silver | U.S. Elections Market Impact | Fed Outlook
2024-10-22
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold is an option on future Fed debt monetization — if rising rates force the US government to cap the yield curve to finance itself, gold will go parabolic; no meaningful resistance between current price and $3,000 target
“gold is an option on the possibility of future debt monetization”
90d -0.3% · 180d +24.3% · 1y +48.6%
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
USTS
bearish
Wealthion · video
Massive fiscal issuance from either election winner, Fed rate cuts reigniting inflation psychology, and a steepening yield curve will push 30-year yields to 5%+, implying another 8-10% price decline from already-mispriced levels near 3.96%
“I wouldn't buy bonds with your money”
90d +1.5% · 180d -0.9% · 1y -6.7%
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
OIL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Market is underpricing Israel-Iran geopolitical risk — Netanyahu's denial of striking Iranian oil facilities is misdirection, not policy, while global demand is simultaneously at all-time highs, leaving oil at $70-71 deeply mispriced
“I think of course they're going to strike their oil facilities”
90d +9.6% · 180d -7.2% · 1y -4.5%
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
HEALTHCARE SECTOR
bearish
Wealthion · video
A Harris election win would trigger a massive healthcare correction given her policy stance, and drug pricing political pressure is a persistent headwind regardless of outcome
“I think healthcare has a lot of downside risk around the election”
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
long ENERGY / short TECH SECTOR
pair
Wealthion · video
Commodity inflation and geopolitical tailwinds structurally favor energy while tech valuations (Nvidia at 34x sales, semis broadly overpriced) are extended, making long energy / short tech a year-long rotation trade
“if you just bought energy and shorted Tech and you just put it away for a year you'd probably be pretty happy”
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
long CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR / short CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR
pair
Wealthion · video
Consumer discretionary has significantly outperformed staples and that spread is set to mean-revert as the economic cycle matures, making long staples / short discretionary the preferred sector rotation
“I think that's going to reverse I'd rather be long Staples”
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
short LLY / short NVO
basket
Wealthion · video
GLP-1 weight loss drug stocks are fully priced and face mounting political pressure to cut drug prices, which will directly compress currently elevated profit margins regardless of underlying demand
“get the hell out like it is fully priced”
90d +24.3% · 180d +29.5% · 1y +31.6%
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-10-22
short BX / short KKR / short CG / short TPG
basket
Wealthion · video
Publicly traded private equity managers are in a massive bubble that has yet to deflate — the underlying PE asset class is overvalued and the managers (BX, KKR, CG, TPG) trade as if this continues indefinitely
“I think it's a huge bubble”
90d -9.8% · 180d +31.0% · 1y +1.4%
Are Fed Rate Cuts Setting Up a Crisis?
2024-09-14
USTS
bearish
Wealthion · video
30-year yields at ~4% are grossly mispriced because fiscal policy will be inflationary regardless of which candidate wins the election, meaning the long-duration bond market has not priced in the coming second inflation wave
“if you look at 30s at 39 or 4% that that to me seems Seems grossly mispriced it is ridiculous”
90d +4.6% · 180d +2.6% · 1y -1.8%
Weekly Recap: Inflation Comeback? Fed Rate Cut, Crypto's Future & FIRE
2024-09-12
OIL
bullish
Wealthion · video
Managed-money net short positioning in crude oil is at roughly 36% of total open interest — an extreme only seen near major bottoms — and gas oil (middle distillates) is at its deepest net short since late 2015/early 2016, setting up a contrarian long
“I think we're very close to a bottom in oil”
90d +4.9% · 180d +2.2% · 1y +4.9%
Will Fed Rate Cuts Avert Recession? | Warren Pies & Jared Dillian on What’s Next!
2024-09-12
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is at a 15% drawdown with managed-money short positioning across the complex at its most extreme in recorded history — more extreme than the financial crisis, pandemic, and European debt crisis — signaling near-term capitulation…
“record short positions...more extreme than the financial crisis or the European debt crisis or the pandemic”
90d +3.8% · 180d +6.8% · 1y +8.9%
Will Fed Rate Cuts Avert Recession? | Warren Pies & Jared Dillian on What’s Next!
2024-09-12
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
The dollar is vastly overvalued on a purchasing-power-parity basis, the Fed is joining a coordinated global rate-cut cycle that narrows the rate differential supporting the dollar, and virtually every major economy wants a weaker dollar
“the dollar is overvalued it is vastly overvalued”
90d -6.9% · 180d -4.6% · 1y -1.5%
Will Fed Rate Cuts Avert Recession? | Warren Pies & Jared Dillian on What’s Next!
2024-08-24
PRIVATE EQUITY (PE MANAGERS / PE-EXPOSED ENDOWMENTS)
bearish
Wealthion · video
The $8T private equity industry grew into a bubble during zero-rate era by borrowing at 0% to buy companies at 4-5x earnings; now borrowing at 5.5-6% with deal multiples at 10-12x, returns are declining, pension funds and university endowments (avg 30%…
“there is a bubble in private equity...if this $8 trillion goes into liquidation it's going to force down valuations across the spectrum”
Weekly Recap: Gold’s Comeback, Recession Looms, & Private Equity Bubble Warnings
2024-08-24
USTS
bearish
Wealthion · video
Fed funds futures are pricing ~6 total rate cuts and ~3.5 cuts by year-end across just 3 remaining 2024 meetings, which Dillian believes is massively mispriced; he expects only one cut in 2024, making 2-year notes overvalued at current yields
“I think that's massively mispriced”
90d +3.3% · 180d +2.8% · 1y -1.6%
Weekly Recap: Gold’s Comeback, Recession Looms, & Private Equity Bubble Warnings
2024-08-24
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
Powell is a hawk who wants more inflation progress before cutting; his Jackson Hole speech will be hawkish and disappoint markets that have priced in aggressive easing, causing a negative reaction on the day of delivery
“I think the tone of the speech will be hawkish and I think it's going to be very negative for markets”
90d -6.5% · 180d -9.5% · 1y -16.0%
Weekly Recap: Gold’s Comeback, Recession Looms, & Private Equity Bubble Warnings
2024-08-21
GOLD
bearish
Wealthion · video
Gold sentiment has turned excessively bullish (crossing $2,500/oz, a 400-oz bar hitting $1M for the first time) which historically signals a crowded trade, warranting caution rather than fresh longs
“I'm actually a little bit worried about gold. Sentiment for gold has gotten very hot”
Jared Dillian: There is a Bubble in Private Equity
2024-08-21
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
The commodities bear market is nearing its end; commodities historically outperform in inflationary environments and, depending on election outcome, a resurgence of inflation could make them the only asset class that works
“I'm very much focused on what I believe to be the end of the commodities bare market”
90d +2.3% · 180d +9.6% · 1y +5.8%
Jared Dillian: There is a Bubble in Private Equity
2024-08-21
USTS
bearish
Wealthion · video
The market has priced in roughly six Fed rate cuts while Dillian expects only one before year-end, making short-term rates massively mispriced to the downside
“I think that's massively mispriced. I think we're going to get one before the end of the year”
90d +3.3% · 180d +3.3% · 1y -1.1%
Jared Dillian: There is a Bubble in Private Equity
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