Investors / stance tracking
What Michael Burry is saying
Founder, Scion Asset Management
40 dated public stances tracked since 2021-04-17, most recently 2026-06-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Burry's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Burry is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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40
tracked stances
27
themes
0
side flips
2026-06-26
last heard
Returns 90d -1.0% (n=33) · 180d -6.4% (n=30) · 1y -12.9% (n=8)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 5 | 5 bearish | 2026-06-26 | |
| PLTR | 5 | 5 bearish | 2026-02-26 | |
| SPX | 5 | 5 bearish | 2026-03-25 | |
| Big Tech | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-03-25 | |
| AI CAPEX CYCLE / DATA CENTER INFRASTRUCTURE | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-12-03 | |
| AI-DRIVEN MEGA-CAP TECH (BROAD) | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-02-26 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-06-26
NVDA
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Nvidia's top 3 customers represent 64% of accounts receivable (extreme concentration risk), and AI token maxing demand is at peak as model training matures and companies face pressure to cut compute budgets, making the stock vulnerable to a decline more…
“Nvidia stock losses look vulnerable and AI token maxing trends won't last into the future”
Michael Burry issues FINAL warning. ("it's like 1929 all over")
2026-03-25
SPX
bearish
Michael Burry · video
The three structural forces that kept the S&P 500 above fair value for 34 years — passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, and boomer demographic accumulation — are all reversing simultaneously, making a reversion to historical Shiller CAPE averages…
“downside scenarios ranging from a 32% decline to a 77% collapse”
90d -12.0%
Michael Burry Predicts a 77% Stock Market CRASH
2026-03-25
PASSIVE INDEX FUNDS / CAP-WEIGHTED INDEX ETFS
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Passive investing grew from 6% to 60% of equity fund assets via government policy mandates, creating a self-reinforcing price-insensitive bid with no price discovery; as flows reverse, the exit door is far smaller than the entrance, amplifying downside…
“each dollar that moves from active to passive is another dollar removed from price discovery”
Michael Burry Predicts a 77% Stock Market CRASH
2026-03-25
Big Tech
bearish
Michael Burry · video
The MAG 7 buyback bid that turbocharged index valuations is collapsing because $650 billion in projected 2026 AI capex is consuming free cash flow, with combined buybacks from Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle falling 74% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
“combined buybacks from Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle fell 74% year-over-year”
90d -21.5%
Michael Burry Predicts a 77% Stock Market CRASH
2026-03-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Cross-asset contagion has broken the traditional stock-bond negative correlation, as demonstrated on Liberation Day when stocks, bonds, and the dollar all fell simultaneously, making the classic 60/40 hedge structurally unreliable during stress events.
“stocks fell, bonds fell, the dollar fell — that is not normal”
90d -0.4%
Michael Burry Predicts a 77% Stock Market CRASH
2026-02-26
PLTR
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Palantir is a core AI-boom stock priced for perfection; Burry holds puts representing ~66% of his disclosed portfolio, betting the AI narrative is overextended and valuation will compress when earnings disappoint
“nearly 80% of the disclosed exposure is aimed at just two stocks, both central to the AI boom”
90d +2.5% · 180d -27.1%
WARNING - Michael Burry’s 2026 Crash Signals: Don’t Ignore This
2026-02-26
NVDA
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Nvidia is the backbone of AI infrastructure spending that Burry likens to the dot-com fiber-optic buildout, where capex explodes ahead of profitable demand, leading to write-downs and earnings misses
“Bur has warned this bubble could be too big to save”
90d -15.0% · 180d -15.4%
WARNING - Michael Burry’s 2026 Crash Signals: Don’t Ignore This
2026-02-26
AI-DRIVEN MEGA-CAP TECH (BROAD)
bearish
Michael Burry · video
AI forces big tech from asset-light software models into capital-intensive infrastructure, compressing ROIC and margins, while extreme Shiller CAPE valuations leave no room for earnings disappointment
“markets don't break when innovation disappears, they break when expectations get too far ahead”
WARNING - Michael Burry’s 2026 Crash Signals: Don’t Ignore This
2026-02-26
US CONSUMER CREDIT / CREDIT STRESS
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Record $1.2T credit card balances and $5T+ non-housing household debt mean rising interest costs will crowd out discretionary spending, weaken corporate earnings, and trigger a credit-driven economic slowdown
“consumers can rely on credit to maintain spending until they can't”
WARNING - Michael Burry’s 2026 Crash Signals: Don’t Ignore This
2026-01-05
NVDA
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Nvidia is the most crowded AI supply-chain trade and Burry suspects earnings quality is inflated by stretched depreciation assumptions on AI equipment, making it fragile in a slowing economy
“the most crowded trade becomes the loudest unwind”
90d +5.6% · 180d -4.1%
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2026-01-05
PFE
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Pfizer has become neglected dead-money stock with low expectations, positioning it for asymmetric upside via call options if the market rotates into cash-flowing defensive names during a risk-off recession environment
“medicine doesn't stop selling because the NASDAQ is scared”
90d +12.5% · 180d -2.6%
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2026-01-05
MOH
bullish
Michael Burry · video
In a recession, layoffs shrink employer health coverage and expand government managed-care programs, making Molina a structural beneficiary of the recessionary shift in how healthcare is funded
“systems don't disappear just because the S&P is scared”
90d -21.6% · 180d +24.6%
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2026-01-05
BROOKFIELD PREFERRED SHARES
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Preferred shares in Brookfield's capital structure offer a more defensive, yield-like layer that the crowd is mispricing, providing income and survivability during volatile recessionary conditions versus common equity exposure
“in a recession volatility is a tax...sit in a different part of the capital stack”
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2026-01-05
SLM
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Market has overly punished this student loan lender, creating a mispricing opportunity in a stress environment where consumer squeeze is real but not a total wipeout
“debt payments don't care about your mood”
90d -19.6% · 180d -6.8%
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2026-01-05
HAL
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Call options on Halliburton provide leveraged exposure to energy volatility spikes driven by geopolitical shocks or supply chain fractures that can coexist with or amplify a recessionary environment
“energy is a chaos hedge”
90d +19.1% · 180d +4.3%
Inside Michael Burry’s 2026 Recession Portfolio
2025-12-04
PLTR
bearish
video
Burry believes Palantir is worth $30 or less versus its ~$200 market price, expressed via deep out-of-the-money put options roughly 2 years out
“I think it's worth 30 or less”
90d +13.9% · 180d +14.5%
2025-12-03
BITCOIN
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Bitcoin at $100,000 has no intrinsic value, is widely accepted as normal only due to mass delusion akin to tulip bulb mania, and has enabled criminal activity, making it uninvestable
“Bitcoin at 100,000 is the most ridiculous thing. It's the tulip bulb of our time—worse than a tulip bulb.”
90d +26.9% · 180d +23.7%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
SPX
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Over 50% of money is now passive/index, meaning when the market falls there is no rotation into ignored value stocks as in 2000—the whole market comes down together, making long equity exposure untenable
“it would be very hard to be long stocks in the United States and protect yourself”
90d +0.2% · 180d -11.6%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
HEALTHCARE STOCKS
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Healthcare stocks are deeply out of favor relative to AI-driven market leaders, presenting a contrarian value opportunity as capital rotates away from overvalued tech
“if you're going to buy something now, buy healthcare stocks—they're really out of favor”
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
PLTR
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Palantir's AI label is a marketing rebranding of expensive legacy consulting software, the company generates minimal real earnings after accounting for stock-based compensation, and the valuation is detached from fundamentals with five billionaires on ~$4B…
“the billionaires-to-revenue ratio was greater than one. I'd never seen that before”
90d +16.4% · 180d +8.8%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
NVDA
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Nvidia is a legacy graphics chip company that got lucky twice (crypto, then AI) without building AI-native products, making it a poster child of the AI bubble rather than a fundamental AI beneficiary
“Nvidia and Palantir are the two luckiest companies on the planet. Neither produced a product for AI.”
90d -0.3% · 180d -24.9%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
GOOGL
bearish
Michael Burry · video
AI is structurally threatening Google's core search business because LLM queries cost orders of magnitude more than traditional search, destroying the unit economics of the golden goose that generates nearly all of Alphabet's cash flow
“I don't use Google. Google search's magic was how little it cost. AI changes that—AI is expensive.”
90d +5.0% · 180d -17.9%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
AI CAPEX CYCLE / DATA CENTER INFRASTRUCTURE
bearish
Michael Burry · video
The AI capex boom mirrors the fiber/router buildout of the dot-com era where stock market peaks preceded capex peaks and massive investment continued into the bust; current capex-to-GDP ratios are near dot-com peak levels, signaling the bubble is near its end…
“the relevant stock market peak was before you were even halfway done with the capital expenditure”
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-03
GOLD
owns
Michael Burry · video
Gold is a long-held store of value hedge against institutional pessimism about debt, Fed policy, and currency debasement, held continuously since 2005
“I have had gold since 2005.”
90d +21.0% · 180d +6.3%
Michael Burry on "What I See Coming in 2026" (Rare Interview)
2025-12-02
PLTR
bearish
video
Palantir's real earnings are near zero when stock-based compensation buybacks are properly deducted from cash flow, the AI narrative is just a label applied to legacy consulting software competitors like IBM offer at far lower valuations, and the…
“I think it's worth 30 or less”
90d +15.0% · 180d +5.9%
2025-12-02
SPX
bearish
video
With over 50% of money now passive/index-driven and fewer than 10% of assets actively managed on a long-term basis, the flight-to-value rotation that cushioned 2000's NASDAQ crash no longer exists — the whole market will fall together in the next downturn…
“I think the stock market could be in for a number of bad years... a longer bare market more akin to 2000”
90d -1.0% · 180d -11.9%
2025-12-02
NVDA
bearish
video
Nvidia is an accidental AI beneficiary — GPUs were adopted for crypto then AI simply because they were available, not purpose-built — and the AI capex buildout mirrors the dot-com fiber bubble where relevant stocks peaked before capex spending even crested
“Nvidia was lucky. They got lucky once with the crypto mining... And then AI came along and it's the same deal.”
90d -0.6% · 180d -23.7%
2025-11-11
META
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Hyperscalers are artificially extending the useful life of compute equipment to understate depreciation, overstating earnings by an estimated $176B by 2028 and inflating reported profits by up to 26.9%
“By my estimates, that will understate depreciation by $176 billion by 2028. ORCL will overstate earnings by 26.9%, Meta by 20%”
90d -8.1% · 180d +4.3%
Big Short's Michael Burry: Tech Stocks HIDING Losses
2025-11-11
PLTR
bearish
Michael Burry · video
Palantir trades at a PE ratio of ~523x, implying growth expectations so extreme that even strong but not exceptional performance would disappoint, making the valuation unjustifiable on fundamentals
“the stock is up 217% year-to-date. They have a PE ratio of 523 times, extremely large multiples”
90d +25.2% · 180d +28.3%
Big Short's Michael Burry: Tech Stocks HIDING Losses
2023-01-27
UNPROFITABLE HIGH-CAP GROWTH STOCKS (UBER, SNOWFLAKE, LUCID, RIVIAN, SHOPIFY CITED AS EXAMPLES)
bearish
video
218+ companies above $1B market cap losing >$100M annually mirror the 2008 cohort that kept declining for years once the cycle turned; these names still have a ways to fall
“darling businesses still had a ways to fall”
2023-01-27
INFLATION (MACRO)
bullish
video
Money-velocity dynamics ensure inflation re-accelerates after each apparent reprieve; since 1940 inflation has never occurred once and disappeared — it comes back, erasing equity gains
“it resolves, fools people, and then comes back”
2023-01-27
CASH
bullish
video
FCF-generating 'boring' businesses are deeply oversold and ignored while still-expensive momentum darlings have further to fall, creating a multi-year setup for value to outperform
“free cash flow totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stocks are coming down but not far enough”
90d +1.1% · 180d +2.3% · 1y +5.1%
2022-12-11
Big Tech
bearish
Michael Burry · video
NASDAQ is in a bear market rally analogous to the post-dot-com bounce of mid-2001, with further downside of ~48% still possible before a true bottom, driven by earnings compression in software and hardware subscription-model companies.
“can't shake that silly pre-Enron pre-9/11 pre-WorldCom feeling”
90d -2.0% · 180d -24.6% · 1y -39.4%
Michael Burry on the Stock Market Crash - 2023 Deep Recession
2022-12-11
SPX
short
Michael Burry · video
S&P 500 remains overvalued with earnings compression still ahead for big tech and the broader market, with Burry targeting a Shiller PE of ~16 or nominal PE of ~9, implying a 45-55% further decline from late 2022 levels.
“you have no idea how short I am”
90d +3.0% · 180d -8.7% · 1y -17.6%
Michael Burry on the Stock Market Crash - 2023 Deep Recession
2022-12-11
US ECONOMY / MULTI-YEAR RECESSION
bearish
Michael Burry · video
No policy lever or market force exists to pull the US out of the current downturn, making an extended multi-year recession the base case with no consensus forecaster acknowledging it.
“we are really looking at an extended multi-year recession”
Michael Burry on the Stock Market Crash - 2023 Deep Recession
2022-12-11
UNPROFITABLE GROWTH STOCKS (EBITDA < -$100M, MKT CAP > $1B)
bearish
Michael Burry · video
264+ companies worth over $1B with deeply negative EBITDA are still priced into the market; rising interest rates make borrowing expensive and punish companies dependent on external capital rather than organic profits, so 'all the silliness must go'.
“all the silliness must go”
Michael Burry on the Stock Market Crash - 2023 Deep Recession
2022-12-10
GEO
bullish
Michael Burry · video
Geo Group trades at a very low P/E (~7.87x) with deep-value characteristics, and has dramatically reduced near-term debt maturities from $2B to $23M, offering multiple expansion potential that most investors overlook due to the stigma of private prisons.
“successful deep value investing requires investors to get comfortable wading through the mud in order to seek out diamonds”
90d -22.9% · 180d -30.1% · 1y -5.6%
Michael Burry's 'Big Short' Against the Stock Market
2022-12-10
CXW
bullish
Michael Burry · video
CoreCivic's real asset value (private prison beds valued at ~$66k/bed implies $4B+ portfolio value vs. $2.8B market cap) is understated, and government inability to replace private prison capacity gives the company pricing power even under a hostile political…
“the sale of this prison represents 66,000 per bed which would value core Civic's portfolio of prisons over four billion dollars”
90d -17.5% · 180d -19.0% · 1y +17.4%
Michael Burry's 'Big Short' Against the Stock Market
2022-12-10
SPX
short
Michael Burry · video
Burry's tweet 'you have no idea how short I am' and low 13F equity exposure (~26% of estimated capital deployed) suggest he holds large undisclosed short positions against the broader stock market reflecting strong overall bearishness.
“you have no idea how short I am”
90d +2.8% · 180d -8.5% · 1y -17.6%
Michael Burry's 'Big Short' Against the Stock Market
2021-04-17
USD
bearish
video
The Fed's QE money-printing is actively debasing the dollar, making foreign-currency accounts such as Canadian bank accounts a prudent hedge for individual savers
“i might recommend opening a bank account in canada”
90d +1.7% · 180d +2.9% · 1y +9.9%
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