Investors / stance tracking
What David Friedberg is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCEO, Ohalo; co-host, All-In
Company executive
20 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-18, most recently 2026-08-31. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Friedberg's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Friedberg is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
20
tracked stances
13
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-31
last heard
Returns 90d +5.1% 67% correct · 12 calls · 180d +5.2% 40% correct · 10 calls · 1y +24.2% 70% correct · 10 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Long Dur Treasuries | owns | +0.3% | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | GOOGL | bullish | +1.5% | — | — |
| 2025-10-24 | long MSFT / long GOOGL | basket | +6.8% | +6.9% | +12.4% |
| 2025-06-21 | TSLA | bullish | +22.2% | +38.6% | +16.2% |
| 2025-06-21 | MSFT | bearish | -6.7% | +0.1% | +23.8% |
| 2025-06-21 | GOOGL | bullish | +54.3% | +83.4% | +112.3% |
| 2025-05-18 | USD | bearish | +1.0% | -1.5% | -3.4% |
| 2025-05-18 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -1.2% | -5.6% | -1.5% |
| 2025-01-04 | short BA / short DEFENSE / short DEFENSE | basket | +11.0% | -28.3% | -49.3% |
| 2024-12-20 | GOOGL | bullish | -14.8% | -9.2% | +62.5% |
| 2024-10-25 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +2.8% | -2.4% | +5.3% |
| 2024-10-18 | URANIUM | bullish | -16.0% | -30.3% | +64.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-07-31 → bearish2026-08-29
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2025-05-18 → bullish2026-07-31
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 3 | 3 bullish | 2026-07-24 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-29 | |
| VERTICAL SAAS | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-29 | |
| CHINESE TECH STOCKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-01-04 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-25 | |
| MRNA | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-08-29 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
The S&P 500 historically returns 10-11% per year with no property tax, insurance, or maintenance costs, making it a superior wealth-building vehicle versus residential real estate for most Americans trying to cross from labor to capital
“the S&P 500 on average will make you 10 11% a year and you don't have to pay property tax”
Top White House Advisor: The US Empire Is Declining And Socialism Is Coming Next! | David Friedberg
2026-08-29
VERTICAL SAAS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Vertical SaaS delivers workflows and processes — not systems of record — and those workflows can be replicated by AI agents at low cost, making the category structurally vulnerable to displacement
“the real SaaS apocalypse — it's more of a vertical SaaS apocalypse, which is software that's designed for just one vertical”
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine moat is weaker than the tripling market cap implies — the neo-antigen immunotherapy technique is NIH-funded public science already available in clinics for $50K, will proliferate cheaply overseas, and the $500K price point is…
“I'm actually pretty sad and frustrated and disappointed by this... I think over the next couple of years we are going to see this cancer immunotherapy based system start to proliferate”
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
2026-08-29
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
Bessent's yield-suppression buybacks are structurally insufficient — even if maxed at $1T, the Treasury must still sell $10T in the next 12 months to refinance maturing debt, and the underlying fiscal spending problem (Congress can't cut) means long-end…
“he's got to go sell 10 trillion of treasuries in the next 12 months. He's got to sell.”
Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine
2026-08-08
SPACEX
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Starlink alone could generate ~$30B in free cash flow at 12M+ subscribers doubling YoY, warranting a 30x multiple (~$900B) within 18 months, with the entire AI compute and Starship upside sitting on top as essentially free options
“The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within 2 years”
Google’s AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable’s 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI
2026-07-31
Long Dur Treasuries
owns
All-In Podcast · video
30-year Treasury yield at 5.2% (pre-tax equivalent ~10%) makes risk assets like semiconductor stocks at 50x earnings irrational to own relative to the risk-free rate, and persistent fiscal deficits with no spending correction path will sustain elevated yields
“I'm better off making 10% by owning federal government bonds. Go to the beach.”
90d +0.3%
Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Google offers multiple compounding value streams — GCP, YouTube, consumer, minority stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX — at a cheap multiple, and in the worst case owns world-class AI infrastructure it can monetize as a pure compute provider
“if you want to bet AI, I think the best public market stock to own is Google”
90d +1.5%
The Fight Over Open Source AI, Anthropic's $1.5B Payout, NYC Socialists: Evictions = Violence?
2025-10-24
long MSFT / long GOOGL
basket
All-In Podcast · video
AWS's high-profile outage will accelerate enterprise migration to multicloud, disproportionately benefiting Microsoft Azure (26% YoY growth) and Google Cloud (32–40% YoY) which are already taking share from AWS (17% YoY)
“this might be another kind of moment of acceleration for those folks”
90d +6.8% · 180d +6.9% · 1y +12.4%
NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
2025-10-03
VIDEO GAMES / GAMING
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
AI will accrue disproportionately to gaming versus social media or traditional media because dynamic, adaptive, personalized experiences benefit far more from AI than passive content consumption, and AI-driven productivity gains will increase people's free…
“gaming is the future of entertainment. And the future of gaming is AI”
Biggest LBO Ever, SPAC 2.0, Open Source AI Models, State AI Regulation Frenzy
Google offers a portfolio of high-beta optionality — Waymo, quantum computing, DeepMind biologics — any one of which could be worth a trillion dollars, providing payoff even if core search revenue erodes; best alpha/beta-adjusted pick in the Mag 7
“there's a portfolio of options you get at Google and you just need any one of them to hit”
90d +54.3% · 180d +83.4% · 1y +112.3%
IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Said again: 2025-06-24 (All-In Podcast)
Tesla is uniquely positioned to capture the humanoid robotics opportunity — a low-probability but mind-blowingly ginormous market — creating an asymmetric call option embedded within a baseline automotive business
“there's not a better company on Earth positioned to execute against this humanoid robotics opportunity than Tesla”
90d +22.2% · 180d +38.6% · 1y +16.2%
IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Said again: 2025-06-24 (All-In Podcast)
Microsoft's largest enterprise customers are the ones most at risk of AI disruption and will decline, while AI-native builders who are the winners will bypass legacy Microsoft products, creating structural revenue decline in the core business over a 5-year…
“there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next 5 years”
90d -6.7% · 180d +0.1% · 1y +23.8%
IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
2025-05-18
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
US annual deficit of ~$2.5T (~8% of GDP) is creating a debt death spiral where rising Treasury yields increase debt servicing costs which worsen the deficit further, with the 30-year already at 5% and potentially heading to 6–7% as investors price in default…
“the 30-year is now kissing 5%...that's how it becomes a spiral”
90d -1.2% · 180d -5.6% · 1y -1.5%
David Friedberg Destroys the House Spending Bill: "Americans should be ashamed."
Fiscal unsustainability and the debt death spiral are triggering de-dollarization as global investors increasingly question whether the US government will meet its debt obligations over a 30-year horizon, driving marginal selling of Treasuries and the dollar
“why are you investing in the American dollar if you believe that's why it's going to”
90d +1.0% · 180d -1.5% · 1y -3.4%
David Friedberg Destroys the House Spending Bill: "Americans should be ashamed."
2025-01-04
short BA / short DEFENSE / short DEFENSE
basket
All-In Podcast · video
Defense budget rationalization toward tech-oriented and AI-native vendors under DOGE/Palantir/Anduril era will structurally impair Cost Plus legacy primes that have become too bureaucratic and clunky
“going to be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood”
90d +11.0% · 180d -28.3% · 1y -49.3%
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2025-01-04
VERTICAL SAAS
bearish
All-In Podcast · video
AI tools enabling in-house workflow replacement compress pricing and make vertical SaaS incumbents structurally redundant as enterprises rebuild business processes natively with AI at a fraction of legacy vendor cost
“pricing being compressed as companies explore inhouse tools built with AI”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
2025-01-04
CHINESE TECH STOCKS
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
Years of selling have left Chinese tech at cheap multiples; a potential Trump-Xi deal, China's massive low-cost electricity buildout, and a possible CCP pivot toward entrepreneurship provide multiple re-rating catalysts
“Chinese tech companies that have been beat up...I think that that may not be the case going into 25”
2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Google has not just caught up to OpenAI but exceeded it, backed by a unique video-data moat (YouTube), massive infrastructure investment, and a top-tier team that are all compounding advantages now that leadership is fully committed to winning the AI race
“the data repository at Google the engine that they have the infrastructure the team all everything down to components is advantaged”
90d -14.8% · 180d -9.2% · 1y +62.5%
DOGE kills its first bill, Zuck vs OpenAI, Google's AI comeback
2024-10-25
Commodities Broad
bullish
All-In Podcast · video
In a sustained inflationary regime driven by fiscal monetization, businesses whose profits mechanically grow with commodity prices — miners and agricultural commodity traders — will outperform companies forced to absorb rising input costs without a built-in…
“I personally like owning businesses where... the profit grows with an underlying inflationary pressure”
90d +2.8% · 180d -2.4% · 1y +5.3%
Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
GDP-per-capita growth drives energy-per-capita growth, and even pre-AI there was no path to meet electricity demand without nuclear, making uranium a structural necessity; the AI buildout amplifies that constraint further
“my prediction for the year was to buy the uranium stocks”
90d -16.0% · 180d -30.3% · 1y +64.0%
Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
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