Investors / stance tracking
What Jeff deGraaf is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder & Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research
18 dated public stances tracked since 2025-03-05, most recently 2026-10-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jeff deGraaf's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jeff deGraaf is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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18
tracked stances
16
themes
1
side flips
2026-10-26
last heard
Returns 90d +1.9% 57% correct · 7 calls · 180d +6.4% 86% correct · 7 calls · 1y +7.8% 57% correct · 7 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-22 | SPX | bearish | -19.6% | -28.1% | -36.4% |
| 2025-03-05 | USTS | bullish | +0.2% | +3.0% | +6.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLD | bullish | +14.6% | +20.8% | +72.9% |
| 2025-03-05 | European Equities | bullish | +5.6% | +7.9% | +19.7% |
| 2025-03-05 | China Equities | bullish | -2.9% | +8.2% | -0.9% |
| 2025-03-05 | BITCOIN | bullish | +16.4% | +20.6% | -21.8% |
| 2025-03-05 | BANKS | bullish | -1.0% | +12.6% | +14.7% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-26 | |
| Ai Infra | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-10-14 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| China Equities | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
Tech hardware and semis are oversold after recent weakness and are set up for a bounce through end of October and into November
“tech hardware and semis in particular being oversold and set up for a nice bounce into the end of the month”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 15:53 ET (5 min)
When tech falls 1%+ on a day that still sees 50%+ of S&P 500 names make 20-day highs, that breadth pattern signals capital rotation rather than exit, and the market is higher three months later 11 out of 12 occurrences historically
“11 out of 12 times the market's higher three months out. I would stick with that right here”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-26 15:58 ET (5 min)
Health care has made a major bottom from historically neglected valuation levels and is now emerging as a beneficiary of AI adoption rather than a capex spender, drawing rotation capital away from tech
“health care has made a big bottom... it's just starting to emerge”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-14 15:41 ET (30 min)
Said again: 2026-10-26 (CNBC (uncut)), 2026-10-26 (CNBC (uncut))
Memory names are in a classic post-bubble pattern — anemic rebound that never got overbought is now rolling over, and peak margins are inviting Chinese competition that threatens the thesis further
“shoot them in the back, you don't need to sell them on the way up”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-14 15:41 ET (30 min)
2026-10-14
Ai Infra
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Real rates at 20-year highs are tightening financial conditions and credit spreads are widening, which hits companies that must access markets to finance or refinance capex most severely
CNBC uncut 2026-10-14 15:41 ET (30 min)
The US equity market entered a bear market ~one month ago defined by rising volatility, falling returns, and deteriorating trend; any near-term sentiment-driven rally to 5500–5700 lacks the momentum or attitudinal shift needed to be sustained, making it a…
“that's a rally to sell”
90d -19.6% · 180d -28.1% · 1y -36.4%
Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jeff deGraaf & Brian Belski | Bloomberg Surveillance
2025-03-05
long HK / short US SEMICONDUCTORS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Chinese/HK semiconductors are trending in the exact opposite direction of US semis — China appears close to a domestic tech revolution (DeepSeek et al.) while US semis remain in a dangerous downtrend, making the pair a compelling divergence trade.
“Hong Kong semiconductors, Chinese semiconductors look exactly the opposite of us — that's pretty unusual”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
China Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
China shows the full three-factor contrarian setup: apoplectic sentiment a year ago, market cap to GDP well below 100%, and now bullish technical confirmation with bases breaking out and moving averages turning — analogous to the US 2008-09 bottom.
“I would equate this to the 08-09 moment in the US for China — I think it's really that kind of turn”
90d -2.9% · 180d +8.2% · 1y -0.9%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
10-year yields are capped at 5% with a floor near 3.50% and are currently oversold within a neutral trend; the yield impact model has moved out of its 90th-100th percentile headwind zone (above 450-475) into a more equity- and bond-supportive range at 415.
“you've basically got a cap at 5%, a floor at 350, and right now we're oversold”
90d +0.2% · 180d +3.0% · 1y +6.0%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
UTILITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Utilities are in leadership amid a seasonal rotation toward defensives and the current rate recalibration from 475 to 415 on the 10-year; they remain constructive as long as they don't significantly outperform financials.
“utilities is one of the leadership groups in this market”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
New relative strength highs in financials and banks almost globally are inconsistent with an imminent recession, signaling the economy is not pricing significant aggregate demand destruction.
“seeing new relative strength highs almost globally in financials and in Banks”
90d -1.0% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +14.7%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Discretionary is a slight overweight because the sector historically outperforms when news is bad — it leads the Fed, bidding up in bad-news environments where easing is coming, and the market cycle clock is in that zone.
“consumer discretion names do far better when the news is bad and far worse when the news is good”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
SOFTWARE / SOCIAL MEDIA / COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT (EX-SEMIS, EX-AI)
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Within tech, software, hardware, communication equipment, and social media names still show good technical setups and are not in the same danger zone as AI and semiconductors.
“software names, Hardware names, communication equipment names that still look good, social media names that still look good”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
European Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
European equities look technically exceptional, with banks — historically called uninvestable — now leading the market, which historically is a constructive sign for broader equity performance.
“Europe looks unbelievable... the banks in Europe look fantastic”
90d +5.6% · 180d +7.9% · 1y +19.7%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
Gold is being driven by global de-dollarization as Russia and China diversify away from dollar reserves following Western sanctions and asset seizures — a structural demand shift that persists regardless of the inflation/deflation regime.
“it's really this move away towards dollarization... happening in Russia, happening in China”
90d +14.6% · 180d +20.8% · 1y +72.9%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
Bitcoin is in a confirmed uptrend and the RenMac oscillator has dropped below −3 standard deviations from trend — a systematic oversold buy signal within an intact uptrend, also signaling healthy animal spirits for broader risk assets.
“anytime you get below -3 it's oversold... we want to take advantage of oversold conditions in those uptrends”
90d +16.4% · 180d +20.6% · 1y -21.8%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
REITS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
REITs are cheap on valuation, showing excessive ETF outflows and bearish options skew (sentiment washout), and relative performance has begun slowly improving — the three-factor contrarian setup is in place.
“REITs are still cheap in our work... relative performance slowly but surely has started to improve”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
US SEMICONDUCTORS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
US semiconductors have been flagging as vulnerable since summer 2024, aligning with other rate-sensitive areas like homebuilders, and AI remains overhyped — the group is not safe in the current correction.
“I think semiconductors are still dangerous frankly”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
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