Investors / stance tracking
What Jeff Degraaf is saying
Founder & Chairman, Renaissance Macro Research
10 dated public stances tracked since 2025-03-05, most recently 2025-03-05. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jeff Degraaf's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jeff Degraaf is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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10
tracked stances
9
themes
0
side flips
2025-03-05
last heard
Returns 90d +1.4% (n=8) · 180d +6.5% (n=8) · 1y +11.3% (n=8)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| China Equities | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| European Equities | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-05 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-03-05
China Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
China shows the full three-factor contrarian setup: apoplectic sentiment a year ago, market cap to GDP well below 100%, and now bullish technical confirmation with bases breaking out and moving averages turning — analogous to the US 2008-09 bottom.
“I would equate this to the 08-09 moment in the US for China — I think it's really that kind of turn”
90d -2.9% · 180d +8.2% · 1y -0.9%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
USTS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
10-year yields are capped at 5% with a floor near 3.50% and are currently oversold within a neutral trend; the yield impact model has moved out of its 90th-100th percentile headwind zone (above 450-475) into a more equity- and bond-supportive range at 415.
“you've basically got a cap at 5%, a floor at 350, and right now we're oversold”
90d +0.2% · 180d +3.0% · 1y +6.0%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
UTILITIES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Utilities are in leadership amid a seasonal rotation toward defensives and the current rate recalibration from 475 to 415 on the 10-year; they remain constructive as long as they don't significantly outperform financials.
“utilities is one of the leadership groups in this market”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
BANKS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
New relative strength highs in financials and banks almost globally are inconsistent with an imminent recession, signaling the economy is not pricing significant aggregate demand destruction.
“seeing new relative strength highs almost globally in financials and in Banks”
90d -1.0% · 180d +12.6% · 1y +14.7%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Discretionary is a slight overweight because the sector historically outperforms when news is bad — it leads the Fed, bidding up in bad-news environments where easing is coming, and the market cycle clock is in that zone.
“consumer discretion names do far better when the news is bad and far worse when the news is good”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
SOFTWARE / SOCIAL MEDIA / COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT (EX-SEMIS, EX-AI)
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Within tech, software, hardware, communication equipment, and social media names still show good technical setups and are not in the same danger zone as AI and semiconductors.
“software names, Hardware names, communication equipment names that still look good, social media names that still look good”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
European Equities
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
European equities look technically exceptional, with banks — historically called uninvestable — now leading the market, which historically is a constructive sign for broader equity performance.
“Europe looks unbelievable... the banks in Europe look fantastic”
90d +5.6% · 180d +7.9% · 1y +19.7%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
GOLD
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Gold is being driven by global de-dollarization as Russia and China diversify away from dollar reserves following Western sanctions and asset seizures — a structural demand shift that persists regardless of the inflation/deflation regime.
“it's really this move away towards dollarization... happening in Russia, happening in China”
90d +14.6% · 180d +20.8% · 1y +72.9%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
BITCOIN
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Bitcoin is in a confirmed uptrend and the RenMac oscillator has dropped below −3 standard deviations from trend — a systematic oversold buy signal within an intact uptrend, also signaling healthy animal spirits for broader risk assets.
“anytime you get below -3 it's oversold... we want to take advantage of oversold conditions in those uptrends”
90d +16.4% · 180d +20.6% · 1y -21.8%
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
2025-03-05
long HK / short US SEMICONDUCTORS
pair
Forward Guidance · video
Chinese/HK semiconductors are trending in the exact opposite direction of US semis — China appears close to a domestic tech revolution (DeepSeek et al.) while US semis remain in a dangerous downtrend, making the pair a compelling divergence trade.
“Hong Kong semiconductors, Chinese semiconductors look exactly the opposite of us — that's pretty unusual”
The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
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