Investors / stance tracking
What Jason Trennert is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowChairman & CEO, Strategas Research Partners
14 dated public stances tracked since 2024-11-26, most recently 2026-10-30. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jason Trennert's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jason Trennert is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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14
tracked stances
8
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-30
last heard
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-26 | SPX | bullish | -0.2% | -1.0% | +14.5% |
| 2024-11-26 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +1.6% | +5.2% | -2.5% |
| 2024-11-26 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | -6.1% | +0.5% | +8.0% |
| 2024-11-26 | Commodities Broad | bullish | +6.9% | +0.5% | +7.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Long Dur Treasuries — bullish2026-08-25 → bearish2026-10-20
Long Dur Treasuries — bearish2024-11-26 → bullish2026-08-25
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Dur Treasuries | 4 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish / 1 neutral | 2026-10-20 | |
| INDUSTRIALS | 2 | 2 bullish | 2026-10-30 | |
| ACTIVE LONG-SHORT EQUITY STRATEGIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-10-20 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-08-25 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-11-26 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-08-25 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-30
long RSP / short SPX
pair
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Equal-weight S&P 500 is preferred over cap-weighted because concentration risk in tech and tech-adjacent companies is too high, making the index vulnerable if those names disappoint
“they should focus more on the equal weight S&P 500 as opposed to the market cap weight”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:37 ET (5 min)
2026-10-30
long SPX / short SPX
pair
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Concentration risk in tech and tech-adjacent is too large in cap-weighted indices, making equal-weight S&P the better expression of broad-market upside with less downside from AI capex disappointments
“focus more on the equal weight S&P 500 as opposed to the market cap weight”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:42 ET (5 min)
The next phase of the AI trade shifts from infrastructure builders to companies implementing AI most effectively across healthcare, financials, and industrials, offering longer legs and less valuation risk than pure AI infrastructure plays
“the next phase of the trade may be the companies that implement AI in the best way”
CNBC uncut 2026-10-30 13:37 ET (5 min)
Said again: 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-20
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Federal Reserve tightening and structurally higher long-term interest rates create a headwind for long-duration bonds.
“Long term interest rates are broadly moving higher in my opinion.”
The Exchange — 2026-10-20 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
Said again: 2026-10-30 (CNBC (uncut))
2026-10-20
LEVERAGED PRIVATE EQUITY
bearish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Persistently higher credit costs will pressure private-equity firms and other businesses whose returns depend heavily on cheap leverage.
“The cost of credit is going to be meaningfully higher in the future.”
The Exchange — 2026-10-20 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
2026-10-20
ACTIVE LONG-SHORT EQUITY STRATEGIES
bullish
CNBC (uncut) · uncut_tv
Higher interest rates should restore stock dispersion and improve the opportunity set for active stock pickers and long-short hedge funds.
“The active manager is going to do better. I think the hedge fund manager is going to do better.”
The Exchange — 2026-10-20 (CNBC, full episode, ads cut)
Persistent fiscal deficits and soft dollar debasement are pushing investors into hard assets, with gold as the preferred vehicle until Washington gets religion on spending
“I think hard assets, and I would put gold in that category much more than I would put Bitcoin”
Bessent’s Mentor Druckenmiller Calls Bond Buying a Mistake
Said again: 2026-08-25 (Stanley Druckenmiller)
2026-08-25
Long Dur Treasuries
bullish
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Treasury Secretary Bessent's large intervention toolkit creates substantial short-squeeze risk for bond bears, making short positioning dangerous despite long-run fundamental concerns about debt
“I would be very careful in being short bonds here because the toolkit that Secretary Bessent has talked about is large”
Bessent’s Mentor Druckenmiller Calls Bond Buying a Mistake
Dollar debasement and absence of fiscal discipline are lifting alternative hard-asset stores of value including Bitcoin alongside gold, though gold is strongly preferred
“be that as it may, they're both going up”
Bessent’s Mentor Druckenmiller Calls Bond Buying a Mistake
2026-08-25
Long Dur Treasuries
neutral
Stanley Druckenmiller · video
Treasury has a large toolkit to inflict pain on bond shorts, making a short position tactically dangerous even if the long-term structural picture remains challenged
“I would be very careful in being short bonds here because the tool kit is large and there are a lot of things he can do to hurt bond shorts”
Bessent’s Mentor Druckenmiller Calls Bond Buying a Mistake
2024-11-26
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Market was pricing 4–5 additional Fed cuts to below 4%; Trennert believes the Fed should hold at a 3.5–4% floor given persistent inflation risk, meaning fewer cuts than priced and rates staying higher than the bond market expects
“I hope they tap the brakes on that”
90d +1.6% · 180d +5.2% · 1y -2.5%
Top Wall St. Strategist Jason Trennert on The Fed, U.S. Fiscal Reckoning, & Inflation
2024-11-26
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Structural wage deals (Boeing +38% over 4yr, longshoremen +62% over 6yr), 7%-of-GDP budget deficits at full employment, and short-term debt rollover risk create a meaningful and underappreciated probability of a second inflation wave
“the chances of another wave of inflation are not low or not trivial”
90d +6.9% · 180d +0.5% · 1y +7.8%
Top Wall St. Strategist Jason Trennert on The Fed, U.S. Fiscal Reckoning, & Inflation
Near-term earnings growth (high single digits) and Trump win supporting capital formation keep equities attractive, though the bull case is explicitly conditional on fiscal reckoning remaining deferred
“we're bullish until the bill comes due”
90d -0.2% · 180d -1.0% · 1y +14.5%
Top Wall St. Strategist Jason Trennert on The Fed, U.S. Fiscal Reckoning, & Inflation
Companies deferred capex throughout the election uncertainty cycle; Trump win plus historically tight corporate credit spreads now unlocks pent-up spending, making 2025 a capex acceleration year
“there's probably some pent-up demand for capex because of the election”
90d -6.1% · 180d +0.5% · 1y +8.0%
Top Wall St. Strategist Jason Trennert on The Fed, U.S. Fiscal Reckoning, & Inflation
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