Investors / stance tracking
What Joe Duran is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowCEO, Rise Growth Partners
Company executive
12 dated public stances tracked since 2025-01-18, most recently 2025-09-05. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Joe Duran's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Joe Duran is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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12
tracked stances
10
themes
0
side flips
2025-09-05
last heard
Returns 90d -11.6% 14% correct · 7 calls · 180d -10.0% 29% correct · 7 calls · 1y +1.0% 57% correct · 7 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-03 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | -3.8% | -3.3% | -2.7% |
| 2025-05-30 | SPX | bearish | -10.4% | -16.0% | -30.2% |
| 2025-04-18 | USD | bearish | -1.5% | -2.9% | -4.5% |
| 2025-04-18 | NFLX | bearish | -29.0% | -21.8% | +4.0% |
| 2025-03-01 | BITCOIN | bearish | -21.0% | -31.0% | +23.5% |
| 2025-01-25 | USTS | bullish | +3.3% | +3.5% | +7.2% |
| 2025-01-18 | BANKS | bullish | -18.4% | +1.1% | +9.4% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 2 | 1 bearish / 1 neutral | 2025-08-29 | |
| BANKS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-01-18 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-03-01 | |
| INTERNATIONAL / FOREIGN EQUITIES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-09-05 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-07-03 | |
| NFLX | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-04-18 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-09-05
INTERNATIONAL / FOREIGN EQUITIES
bullish
Wealthion · video
Foreign equity valuations are significantly lower than US valuations, creating a relative opportunity especially if tariff-related uncertainty weighs on US markets.
“investing in the foreign countries, their valuations are significantly lower than the US right now”
Are Rate Cuts Now a Done Deal? | Rise UP!
With seven stocks now driving 34% of S&P 500 market cap at valuations resembling 1999, shifting to equal-weight reduces dangerous concentration risk in the Mag 7 without requiring a market-timing bet
“get into an S&P equal weighted so you don't have the heavy weighting to those seven stocks”
From Fed Shake-Ups to Tariff Trouble: Protecting Your Portfolio Now | Rise UP!
2025-07-03
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
The spread between short-term cash (~4%) and 10-year Treasuries (~4.5%) is too thin to compensate for the heightened rate risk created by the Big Beautiful Bill adding trillions to the deficit, so laddering rather than extending duration is preferred.
“you're not getting rewarded for that increased possibility if rates go even higher”
90d -3.8% · 180d -3.3% · 1y -2.7%
It’s Now A Long-Term Buy the Dips Market | Rise UP!
Volatility is currently low making SPY puts cheaply priced insurance against a market decline, offering a defined-cost hedge superior to going all-cash where opportunity cost is unbounded
“you can easily buy puts on the S&P 500 on SPY, very reasonably priced, especially with volatility, whereas today, which is actually quite low”
90d -10.4% · 180d -16.0% · 1y -30.2%
2025 May Be the Year of “The Dip” But An Economic Slowdown Could Change That | Rise UP!
Said again: 2025-06-06 (Wealthion)
Netflix is likely overvalued because it has become the consensus defensive safe-haven for investors seeking to avoid tariff and recession exposure, making it a crowded trade near old highs.
“firms like Netflix are probably over valued because it's the one place that you can go”
90d -29.0% · 180d -21.8% · 1y +4.0%
The US vs China Standoff Could Wreck the Global Economy | ft. Peter Boockvar & Jon Betlow | Rise UP!
A declining dollar coinciding with rising interest rates signals erosion of global confidence in the US, compounded by the US debt burden on the balance sheet.
“I am not in love with the fact that the dollar's going down and interest rates are going up”
90d -1.5% · 180d -2.9% · 1y -4.5%
The US vs China Standoff Could Wreck the Global Economy | ft. Peter Boockvar & Jon Betlow | Rise UP!
2025-04-11
short MAGNIFICENT 7 / US LARGE-CAP GROWTH / long US VALUE STOCKS / long INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES
pair
Wealthion · video
Mag7 and US equities have dramatically outperformed for a decade, leaving them overweight relative to plan; underperforming asset classes (value stocks, international) historically recover better in corrections, so rebalancing into them now is both…
“balance away from the MAG7 into value stocks, away from US into international…the asset class that is underperformed typically does better”
Volatility! What Investors Must Know & Do Now | ft. Benjamin Wallace & Todd Herman | Rise UP!
2025-04-01
VALUE STOCKS AND INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
bullish
Wealthion · video
The current AI/Mag7 concentration mirrors the 1999–2000 Nifty 50 bubble; when that concentration cracked, value and international held up well, and the same multi-year regime shift is underway now
“value stocks did fine in that time. International stocks did fine in that time”
Markets Brace for April 2nd Tariffs: What Investors Must Do | Ft. Peter Boockvar & Benjamin Wallace
2025-03-22
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS (PRE-IPO ACCESS)
bullish
Wealthion · video
Wealth creation increasingly happens before companies go public — Mag 7 and ventures like SpaceX grew 100x privately — so public investors arrive after the best appreciation; PE funds are the only mechanism to access this shadow economy before IPO
“trillions of dollars in wealth being created before the companies even go public”
Volatile Markets, European Exceptionalism and Alternative Investment Ideas
Bitcoin is a pure risk asset highly correlated to Nasdaq and Mag7—not a store of value or hedge—and faces accelerating regulatory headwinds as the North Korea $1.5B hack and its use by rogue nations forces governments to restrict untraceable crypto
“Bitcoin is showing you it is not a place to hide when volatility is high”
90d -21.0% · 180d -31.0% · 1y +23.5%
This Week’s Must-Know Market News | ft. Peter Boockvar & Andy Schwartz | Rise UP!
Bonds have pulled back from 4.8% to 4.4-4.5% on the 10-year, making rebalancing into fixed income attractive relative to overextended equities
“investing a little bit more in bonds, which have pulled back...probably in the 4.5, 4.4% on a 10-year”
90d +3.3% · 180d +3.5% · 1y +7.2%
This Week’s Must-Know Market News | ft. Scott Schwartz | Rise UP!
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are benefiting from a booming M&A and IPO cycle driven by animal spirits in the C-suite, reduced regulation under the incoming administration should expand margins further, and valuations remain well below tech with solid dividend…
“if you're an investor and these stocks are still relatively well priced you can still make some good money”
90d -18.4% · 180d +1.1% · 1y +9.4%
This Week’s Must-Know Market News | ft. David Mandelbaum | Rise UP!
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