Investors / stance tracking
What David Woo is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowIndependent macro strategist (ex-BofA)
22 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-15, most recently 2026-09-11. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Woo's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Woo is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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22
tracked stances
14
themes
2
side flips
2026-09-11
last heard
Returns 90d -9.1% 9% correct · 11 calls · 180d -5.9% 45% correct · 11 calls · 1y -7.0% 17% correct · 6 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | long OIL / short OIL | spread | +0.0% | +0.0% | — |
| 2026-04-20 | USTS | short | +1.4% | +4.1% | — |
| 2026-04-20 | European Equities | bearish | -0.0% | +1.1% | — |
| 2026-03-10 | MSFT | bearish | -1.7% | -22.2% | — |
| 2026-03-10 | Big Tech | short | -18.0% | -18.5% | — |
| 2025-06-26 | long USTS / short SPX | pair | -3.2% | -5.2% | -8.6% |
| 2025-06-26 | TSLA | bearish | -35.9% | -49.0% | -16.6% |
| 2025-06-26 | NVDA | bearish | -14.2% | -22.1% | -24.4% |
| 2025-06-26 | BITCOIN | bearish | -5.9% | +18.3% | +43.9% |
| 2024-10-29 | OIL | bearish | -11.9% | +2.7% | -3.1% |
| 2024-10-15 | VOL | owns | -10.3% | +26.0% | -33.2% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Tech | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-26 | |
| OIL | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-18 | |
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-18 | |
| Ai Infra | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-09-11 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-06-26 | |
| European Equities | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-04-20 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-09-11
Ai Infra
bearish
Capital Allocators · video
Chinese frontier models have achieved performance parity with US models despite far inferior chips — meaning Chinese models are more algorithmically efficient — are already at 25% US market share and will reach 50% in six months, pricing down US AI revenue…
“I struggle to see how these AI companies in the US are going to monetize the technology”
David Woo: Columbia PhD, Ex-BofA Head of Rates, FX on AI Race, Bond Markets & Geopolitics
2026-09-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Capital Allocators · video
AI hyperscalers are all running negative free cash flow and funding capex purely with debt, creating a ~$3T off-balance-sheet financing pipeline that is price-inelastic (FOMO-driven, not return-driven) and is the structural force pushing real yields higher —…
“there's at least three trillion dollars of debt in a pipeline... if that's not driving yields I mean what I'm saying is it's so obvious”
David Woo: Columbia PhD, Ex-BofA Head of Rates, FX on AI Race, Bond Markets & Geopolitics
Options vol is cheap relative to the stack of tail risks present — a US ban on Chinese AI triggering dollar collapse, Iran/Hormuz supply disruption, and Ukraine escalation — making gold via options an attractive hedge with asymmetric payoff
“I kind of like I'm long oil, I'm long a bit of gold”
David Woo: Columbia PhD, Ex-BofA Head of Rates, FX on AI Race, Bond Markets & Geopolitics
Equity vol is cheap relative to the near-term tail risks (US-China AI escalation, Iran/Hormuz, Ukraine offensive before winter) and seasonal weakness in September-October, making put spreads an efficient hedge for the next three weeks
“I'm actually long some put spreads on S&P 500... September October are not great months for the stock market”
David Woo: Columbia PhD, Ex-BofA Head of Rates, FX on AI Race, Bond Markets & Geopolitics
2026-08-26
Big Tech
short
Wealthion · video
AI valuations rest on winner-take-all assumptions, FOMO-driven capex with no economic logic, and dressed-up earnings (tariff rebates and Anthropic/holding revaluations inflate apparent S&P earnings growth by ~60%), leaving the trade structurally unsupported
“I've been short. I'm going to go back to shorting.”
NVIDIA Earnings Put the AI Boom to the Test — Woo Warns of “Catastrophe”
AI commoditization will destroy Google Search's dominance — AI search has 10x the capability of keyword search and there is no natural moat preventing Google from being the biggest loser of the commoditization wave
“Google is going to be, in the end, a big loser by the commoditization of AI”
NVIDIA Earnings Put the AI Boom to the Test — Woo Warns of “Catastrophe”
2026-08-18
long DEFENSE / long RHM
basket
Wealthion · video
US deputy defense secretary ordering contractors to ramp ammunition production signals a sustained increase in US government defense spending, while Russian ground offensive gains accelerate European defense budget pressure — both tailwinds benefit US defense…
“I think defense might actually do pretty well actually in the next couple of months”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
Iran has an incentive to push Brent toward $100–120 to pressure Trump and will lean on Houthis to resume Red Sea tanker attacks, while Trump cannot politically accept a total defeat and capitulate, making the standoff unresolvable in the near term
“I'm long oil because I find it difficult to see how this thing is going to end”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
Five-year yields are too high given that the Fed is unlikely to hike with growth slowing and inflation absent, making bonds cheap at current levels
“I think bonds are very very cheap — do I really believe the Fed is going to be hiking rates?”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
2026-04-20
long OIL / short OIL
spread
video
Near-term war escalation will spike Brent toward $120 while the back end of the curve still reflects market hope for resolution, making a long front / short back calendar spread the cleanest oil expression.
“I'm long the June Brent contract and short the December contract”
90d +0.0% · 180d +0.0%
A war-driven oil price shock will push long-end bond yields higher even as the Fed refuses to hike, as inflation expectations reprice into the long end.
“I'm short 30-year treasuries because if oil price goes up, bond yields going to go up again”
90d +1.4% · 180d +4.1%
2026-04-20
European Equities
bearish
video
Europe loses in both scenarios: war escalation means higher oil prices hitting the more import-dependent European economy; de-escalation means Trump blames NATO inaction, disengages from Europe, and grants Russia a free hand — leaving European assets exposed…
“I think if it escalates, Europe is toast... Europe is toast on both fronts”
90d -0.0% · 180d +1.1%
2026-03-10
Big Tech
short
Julia La Roche Show · video
Market is mis-pricing the Iran oil shock as a pure inflation event rather than a growth shock, and once the growth-drag is recognized — compounded by a likely AI-CapEx pullback and private credit stress — Nasdaq reprices sharply lower
“I've been short stocks, too, Nasdaq. QQQ has finally broken below 600.”
90d -18.0% · 180d -18.5%
David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next
AI CapEx cycle is built on a false winner-takes-all monetization premise; no one is making money yet, competition is intensifying via coding tools, and sustained high oil prices give hyperscalers a ready excuse to cut CapEx commitments, triggering a sharp…
“the whole AI trade is still riding on a false premise... right now I don't see anybody making any money”
90d -1.7% · 180d -22.2%
David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next
2025-06-26
long USTS / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
Bonds are very cheap because markets misprice tariff impact as inflationary when it will instead crush corporate margins and growth, making 5-year Treasuries a better risk-reward than overvalued equities while capturing any equity correction upside
“I am long five-year notes which I think are the most attractive part of the curve”
90d -3.2% · 180d -5.2% · 1y -8.6%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
Tesla is priced as a robo-taxi and robotics winner but five Chinese companies already have deployed robo-taxis ahead of Tesla, Waymo hasn't been profitable after ten years, and Musk's credibility gap on DOGE erodes benefit-of-the-doubt on future delivery
“I don't see the future of this company. I see there's a lot of competition including Chinese company”
90d -35.9% · 180d -49.0% · 1y -16.6%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
White House crypto support is policy-for-donations corruption rather than sound economics, and promoting a dollar alternative directly undermines Treasury demand at the worst possible moment given record twin deficits
“We need people to buy treasuries and not Bitcoin. We need people to buy dollar and not some alternative currencies”
90d -5.9% · 180d +18.3% · 1y +43.9%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
Chinese AI competitors (DeepSeek, Alibaba models) match US AI capabilities without top Nvidia chips, proving AI is easily copied and breaking the monopoly moat that justifies Nvidia's valuation
“that also calls into question whether Nvidia's earning valuation makes any sense at all”
90d -14.2% · 180d -22.1% · 1y -24.4%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
2025-01-23
long MXN / short CAD (CANADIAN DOLLAR)
pair
Wealthion · video
Mexico has been proactively accommodating Trump's demands (record fentanyl seizures, deportation cooperation, customs overhaul) while Canada sits in political chaos with no deal, making Trump's February 1 tariff deadline far more likely to hit Canada than…
“I would buy the Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar...as a basically a 10-day trade”
David Woo: World Peace - The Biggest Macro Investment Theme for 2025 | @DavidWooUnbound
A Trump win accelerates US oil production by ~3M barrels/day, Chinese demand is structurally weakening as EVs cross 50% of new car sales, Israel's strike reduced the geopolitical risk premium, and OPEC+ plus non-OPEC producers all want to add supply…
“why you should be selling oil you know and buying stocks today”
90d -11.9% · 180d +2.7% · 1y -3.1%
David Woo: Why Israel’s Iran Strike & A Trump Win Are Bearish for Oil
Said again: 2024-11-02 (Wealthion)
2024-10-15
long SPX / short SPX
spread
Wealthion · video
With VIX at 20 and three fat-tail risks live simultaneously (Israel-Iran war, Ukraine long-range missile escalation, Trump assassination attempt), a 3-week S&P 500 put spread structured for 4:1 payoff is cheaper than outright puts given elevated vol and…
“you want to try to structure in such a way that you can get let's say a 4 to one pay off”
David Woo: Israel-Iran War Highly Likely - Prepare For Market Turmoil
Geopolitical risk is at a 30-year high with Israel-Iran war imminent, Ukraine escalation possible, and US election uncertainty elevated, yet VIX at 20 still underprices realized tail risk relative to oil vol at 50, making long volatility attractive
“I basically bought October VIX contracts fairly early on and I've had a very nice run up”
90d -10.3% · 180d +26.0% · 1y -33.2%
David Woo: Israel-Iran War Highly Likely - Prepare For Market Turmoil
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