Investors / stance tracking
What David Woo is saying
Independent macro strategist (ex-BofA)
18 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-15, most recently 2026-08-26. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of David Woo's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. David Woo is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
18
tracked stances
9
themes
2
side flips
2026-08-26
last heard
Returns 90d -5.6% (n=19) · 180d -1.5% (n=14) · 1y -3.3% (n=11)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
OIL — bearish2024-11-02 → bullish2026-08-18
USTS — bearish2026-04-20 → bullish2026-08-18
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OIL | 3 | 1 bullish / 2 bearish | 2026-08-18 | |
| Big Tech | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-08-26 | |
| USTS | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-18 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-06-26 | |
| European Equities | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-04-20 | |
| GOOGL | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-08-26 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-26
Big Tech
short
Wealthion · video
AI valuations rest on winner-take-all assumptions, FOMO-driven capex with no economic logic, and dressed-up earnings (tariff rebates and Anthropic/holding revaluations inflate apparent S&P earnings growth by ~60%), leaving the trade structurally unsupported
“I've been short. I'm going to go back to shorting.”
NVIDIA Earnings Put the AI Boom to the Test — Woo Warns of “Catastrophe”
2026-08-26
GOOGL
bearish
Wealthion · video
AI commoditization will destroy Google Search's dominance — AI search has 10x the capability of keyword search and there is no natural moat preventing Google from being the biggest loser of the commoditization wave
“Google is going to be, in the end, a big loser by the commoditization of AI”
NVIDIA Earnings Put the AI Boom to the Test — Woo Warns of “Catastrophe”
2026-08-18
OIL
owns
Wealthion · video
Iran has an incentive to push Brent toward $100–120 to pressure Trump and will lean on Houthis to resume Red Sea tanker attacks, while Trump cannot politically accept a total defeat and capitulate, making the standoff unresolvable in the near term
“I'm long oil because I find it difficult to see how this thing is going to end”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
2026-08-18
USTS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Five-year yields are too high given that the Fed is unlikely to hike with growth slowing and inflation absent, making bonds cheap at current levels
“I think bonds are very very cheap — do I really believe the Fed is going to be hiking rates?”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
2026-08-18
long DEFENSE / long RHM
basket
Wealthion · video
US deputy defense secretary ordering contractors to ramp ammunition production signals a sustained increase in US government defense spending, while Russian ground offensive gains accelerate European defense budget pressure — both tailwinds benefit US defense…
“I think defense might actually do pretty well actually in the next couple of months”
Oil to $120? Iran Could Trigger the Next Stock Market Shock | David Woo
2026-04-20
USTS
short
video
A war-driven oil price shock will push long-end bond yields higher even as the Fed refuses to hike, as inflation expectations reprice into the long end.
“I'm short 30-year treasuries because if oil price goes up, bond yields going to go up again”
90d +1.4%
2026-04-20
European Equities
bearish
video
Europe loses in both scenarios: war escalation means higher oil prices hitting the more import-dependent European economy; de-escalation means Trump blames NATO inaction, disengages from Europe, and grants Russia a free hand — leaving European assets exposed…
“I think if it escalates, Europe is toast... Europe is toast on both fronts”
90d -0.0%
2026-04-20
long OIL / short OIL
spread
video
Near-term war escalation will spike Brent toward $120 while the back end of the curve still reflects market hope for resolution, making a long front / short back calendar spread the cleanest oil expression.
“I'm long the June Brent contract and short the December contract”
90d +0.0%
2026-03-10
Big Tech
short
Julia La Roche Show · video
Market is mis-pricing the Iran oil shock as a pure inflation event rather than a growth shock, and once the growth-drag is recognized — compounded by a likely AI-CapEx pullback and private credit stress — Nasdaq reprices sharply lower
“I've been short stocks, too, Nasdaq. QQQ has finally broken below 600.”
90d -18.0% · 180d -18.5%
David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next
2026-03-10
MSFT
bearish
Julia La Roche Show · video
AI CapEx cycle is built on a false winner-takes-all monetization premise; no one is making money yet, competition is intensifying via coding tools, and sustained high oil prices give hyperscalers a ready excuse to cut CapEx commitments, triggering a sharp…
“the whole AI trade is still riding on a false premise... right now I don't see anybody making any money”
90d -1.7% · 180d -22.2%
David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next
2025-06-26
TSLA
bearish
Wealthion · video
Tesla is priced as a robo-taxi and robotics winner but five Chinese companies already have deployed robo-taxis ahead of Tesla, Waymo hasn't been profitable after ten years, and Musk's credibility gap on DOGE erodes benefit-of-the-doubt on future delivery
“I don't see the future of this company. I see there's a lot of competition including Chinese company”
90d -35.9% · 180d -49.0% · 1y -16.6%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
2025-06-26
BITCOIN
bearish
Wealthion · video
White House crypto support is policy-for-donations corruption rather than sound economics, and promoting a dollar alternative directly undermines Treasury demand at the worst possible moment given record twin deficits
“We need people to buy treasuries and not Bitcoin. We need people to buy dollar and not some alternative currencies”
90d -5.9% · 180d +18.3% · 1y +43.9%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
2025-06-26
long USTS / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
Bonds are very cheap because markets misprice tariff impact as inflationary when it will instead crush corporate margins and growth, making 5-year Treasuries a better risk-reward than overvalued equities while capturing any equity correction upside
“I am long five-year notes which I think are the most attractive part of the curve”
90d -3.2% · 180d -5.2% · 1y -8.6%
David Woo: Trade War Will Be Back In July — Stocks Are Tariff-Doomed! | @DavidWooUnbound
2025-01-23
long MXN / short CAD (CANADIAN DOLLAR)
pair
Wealthion · video
Mexico has been proactively accommodating Trump's demands (record fentanyl seizures, deportation cooperation, customs overhaul) while Canada sits in political chaos with no deal, making Trump's February 1 tariff deadline far more likely to hit Canada than…
“I would buy the Mexican peso against the Canadian dollar...as a basically a 10-day trade”
David Woo: World Peace - The Biggest Macro Investment Theme for 2025 | @DavidWooUnbound
2024-11-02
OIL
bearish
Wealthion · video
A Trump win accelerates US oil production by ~3M bbl/day, China's EV transition structurally weakens demand, and OPEC+ plus non-OPEC supply is rising — all pointing oil prices materially lower toward $60
“I think oil price is probably going to be heading much lower”
90d -5.0% · 180d +13.2% · 1y +2.1%
Market Recap: Hyperinflation Warning | Gold Stocks Surge | Iran Conflict & Oil | Election Market
2024-10-29
OIL
bearish
Wealthion · video
A Trump win accelerates US oil production by ~3M barrels/day, Chinese demand is structurally weakening as EVs cross 50% of new car sales, Israel's strike reduced the geopolitical risk premium, and OPEC+ plus non-OPEC producers all want to add supply…
“why you should be selling oil you know and buying stocks today”
90d -11.9% · 180d +2.7% · 1y -3.1%
David Woo: Why Israel’s Iran Strike & A Trump Win Are Bearish for Oil
2024-10-15
VOL
owns
Wealthion · video
Geopolitical risk is at a 30-year high with Israel-Iran war imminent, Ukraine escalation possible, and US election uncertainty elevated, yet VIX at 20 still underprices realized tail risk relative to oil vol at 50, making long volatility attractive
“I basically bought October VIX contracts fairly early on and I've had a very nice run up”
90d -10.3% · 180d +26.0% · 1y -33.2%
David Woo: Israel-Iran War Highly Likely - Prepare For Market Turmoil
2024-10-15
long SPX / short SPX
spread
Wealthion · video
With VIX at 20 and three fat-tail risks live simultaneously (Israel-Iran war, Ukraine long-range missile escalation, Trump assassination attempt), a 3-week S&P 500 put spread structured for 4:1 payoff is cheaper than outright puts given elevated vol and…
“you want to try to structure in such a way that you can get let's say a 4 to one pay off”
David Woo: Israel-Iran War Highly Likely - Prepare For Market Turmoil
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 845 voices, 2,419 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click