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Investors / stance tracking

What Aswath Damodaran is saying

Professor of finance, NYU Stern

28 dated public stances tracked since 2023-09-14, most recently 2026-08-31. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.

The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Aswath Damodaran's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Aswath Damodaran is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.

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28
tracked stances
22
themes
3
side flips
2026-08-31
last heard
Returns  90d +2.8% (n=13) · 180d +19.9% (n=13) · 1y +99.6% (n=6)

Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.

View flips

Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.

USTS — bearish2026-02-27 → bullish2026-08-31
GOLD — bearish2025-11-06 → bullish2026-02-27
NVDA — bullish2023-09-14 → bearish2026-02-27

Most-argued themes

ThemeStancesLeanMixLast
GOLD31 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-31
USTS31 bullish / 1 bearish / 1 neutral2026-08-31
NVDA21 bullish / 1 bearish2026-02-27
SPACEX IPO22 bearish2026-06-04
AAPL11 bullish2026-06-18
ALIBABA / CHINESE TECH STOCKS11 neutral2023-09-14

Tracked stances

bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.

2026-08-31 USTS bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
At 5-5.5% yield, Treasuries provide reliable near-risk-free cash flows and raise the required return hurdle for equities and all riskier assets around them
“if I can make 5 to 5½% on relatively risk-free, default-free bonds”
Aswath Damodaran: "If AI Is Successful — God Help Us All"
2026-08-31 PASSIVE EQUITY INDEX FUNDS bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Active investing systematically underperforms passive because greater trading activity reduces returns — documented studies show frozen portfolios beat active managers every time
“the more you try, the worse your returns become”
Aswath Damodaran: "If AI Is Successful — God Help Us All"
2026-08-31 GOLD neutral Aswath Damodaran · video
Gold rises on declining trust in governments and currencies but produces no cash flows and can only be priced or traded, never valued — making it suitable only as a marginal portfolio allocation
“You can price gold, you can trade gold, you cannot invest in gold”
Aswath Damodaran: "If AI Is Successful — God Help Us All"
2026-06-18 SPACEX bearish Aswath Damodaran · video
Damodaran values SpaceX at ~$1.3T but it trades at $2.7T — AI unit economics are deeply unfavorable (massive CapEx, low gross margins, unresolved business models), the AI segment's reinvestment is value-destructive rather than value-creating, and renting data…
“it's a great company, but at the wrong price”
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
2026-06-18 AAPL bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Apple's deliberate restraint on AI CapEx — refusing to enter a capital-intensive game it is not equipped to play — is underappreciated by a market that is penalizing Apple for not over-investing, and positions it to learn from competitors' costly mistakes…
“this might be one of those markets where restraint is a good feature”
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
2026-06-04 SPACEX IPO bearish Musings on Markets (Damodaran) · article
SpaceX is overvalued at the ~$1.8T expected IPO pricing relative to his intrinsic valuation of $1.25–$1.35T, making it a pass at offering but potentially worth buying if the price drops materially post-listing as Facebook and Uber did
“it is too richly priced for my tastes, given my valuation of $1.25-$1.35 trillion for the equity”
Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!
2026-04-23 SPACEX IPO bearish Musings on Markets (Damodaran) · article
Damodaran's DCF simulation yields a median intrinsic value of ~$1.29T, making the rumored $1.75T IPO price unattractive with little-to-no upside, but a significant post-IPO correction would make it fairly priced and worth buying
“it is one big correction away from being fairly priced or even cheap. If that happens, I will be a buyer”
To a Trillion(s) Dollars and beyond: A SpaceX IPO Odyssey!
2026-02-27 GOLD bullish Meb Faber · video
Gold and silver rose ~70% and ~150% respectively in 2025 even as inflation fell and markets were stable, reflecting a structural loss of institutional trust that is likely to persist.
“the rise of gold and silver last year was extraordinary—not just how much they went up but the fact they went up when you'd normally not expect them to”
90d -14.7% · 180d -12.9%
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 OPENAI (PRIVATE) bearish Meb Faber · video
OpenAI's CEO cannot articulate a credible business model to justify an ~$850B valuation, and ChatGPT subscriptions alone cannot generate the revenues implied by that price.
“Sam Altman seems to have no idea what the business model for the company is”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 SPX bearish Meb Faber · video
US equities are richly priced with implied equity risk premium near historical averages, but a painful global economic transition away from the post-WWII order is not priced in, warranting a cash buffer rather than full exit
“you need to build in some protection against catastrophe in your portfolio”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE (SALESFORCE, ORACLE) bearish Meb Faber · video
AI commoditizes the mechanical work underpinning high-margin software businesses, and incumbents face an innovator's dilemma—too much to lose to fully pivot—threatening their pricing power and margins.
“software had the highest margins of any industry...AI is taking much of what used to take people and resources and doing it almost effortlessly”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 TSLA bearish Meb Faber · video
Tesla has become a political investment where consumer purchasing decisions are driven by political affiliation rather than product merit, undermining the core business.
“Tesla became a political investment...when people think about whether they buy your car based on their political standing, you're in trouble”
90d -9.8% · 180d +14.1%
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 NFL neutral Meb Faber · video
Sports franchises trade at ~8x revenues—unjustifiable on cash flows—but function as trophy assets for billionaires, so no valuation-based correction is coming as long as billionaire demand exceeds franchise supply.
“as long as the number of billionaires exceeds the number of professional sports franchises, there's no correction coming”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 NVDA bearish Meb Faber · video
Nvidia has already ridden the bulk of the AI architecture wave and current pricing requires betting on a future growth wave that doesn't have sufficient justification to support further upside
“the bulk of the AI architecture wave Nvidia's already ridden and now we're making a bet that they will continue to build on a future wave”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 Big Tech bearish Meb Faber · video
Big tech companies are collectively over-investing in AI infrastructure driven by overconfidence, and the market cannot support all of them as winners, guaranteeing large write-offs for some.
“collectively, they're definitely overinvesting. I feel secure making that statement”
90d -21.3% · 180d -17.4%
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 USTS bearish Meb Faber · video
Companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets misuse the stabilizing function of cash, turning a risk buffer into a volatile speculative asset that amplifies earnings swings in both directions.
“I don't want companies holding Bitcoin...I want them to hold cash to stabilize the process”
90d +2.6% · 180d +2.9%
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2026-02-27 EARLY-STAGE / UNDER-THE-RADAR SPORTS LEAGUES (E.G., PICKLEBALL) bullish Meb Faber · video
Buying into emerging sports before they attract billionaire trophy buyers offers the only way to generate genuine investment returns in the sports franchise space.
“go to the sports which are not quite professional yet where you think they're going to break out and get ahead of the game”
3 AI Stock Winners & 3 Write-Offs - Prof. Damodaran
2025-11-06 GOLD bearish Aswath Damodaran · video
Gold is primarily a collectible whose price is driven by mood and momentum rather than fundamentals, making it unvaluable but priceable; current price looks historically stretched relative to CPI and gold/silver ratios, but structural demand shifts (ETF…
“Gold under overvalued? No idea. Is gold overpriced? Different question.”
90d +24.0% · 180d +14.3%
A Golden Year: Gold's Price Surge in 2025 - Macro Signal or Pricing Noise?
2025-11-06 CASH bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Surging gold prices are a disquieting signal that near-term inflation or macro risk may be rising, prompting a shift toward holding more cash to cover near-term needs rather than being fully invested in financial assets
“I should be looking at my portfolio and making sure I have enough cash on hand to cover my needs for the near term.”
90d +0.9% · 180d +1.8%
A Golden Year: Gold's Price Surge in 2025 - Macro Signal or Pricing Noise?
2025-11-06 HIGH PRICING-POWER EQUITIES (E.G., MAGNIFICENT 7) bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Rising gold prices may signal higher future inflation, so investors who want equity exposure should rotate toward companies with significant pricing power — such as the Mag 7 — that can pass inflation through to customers
“The MAG 7 have that going for them. They have significant pricing power.”
A Golden Year: Gold's Price Surge in 2025 - Macro Signal or Pricing Noise?
2025-08-16 USTS neutral Aswath Damodaran · video
Bond income generates taxable cash flows that erode after-tax returns, making bonds inferior to equities for investors who do not need current income from their portfolio and instead seek appreciation
“I find bonds incredibly boring...if I wanted cash flows, I'd buy dividend paying stocks”
I Never Buy More Than 5% | Inside Aswath Damodaran's Personal Portfolio
2025-08-16 BITCOIN bearish Aswath Damodaran · video
Bitcoin's collectible demand is fragile because a competing cryptocurrency could replicate its features without its drawbacks — an alchemy risk analogous to lab diamonds undermining natural diamond prices — potentially collapsing demand permanently
“I'm looking over my shoulder saying, what's the alchemy here? who's working on what that can replace this Bitcoin”
I Never Buy More Than 5% | Inside Aswath Damodaran's Personal Portfolio
2025-07-18 MELI bullish Musings on Markets (Damodaran) · article
Mercado Libre is on Damodaran's buy list as a Latin American e-commerce and fintech leader whose bitcoin holdings are a rational hedge against Argentine peso currency risk rather than a speculative side bet
“Mercado Libre, a Latin American online retail firm, is on my buy list”
90d -15.4% · 180d -12.9% · 1y -24.1%
To Bitcoin or not to Bitcoin? A Corporate Cash Question!
2024-03-22 C bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Citigroup trades at roughly half book value (~$46/share) but intrinsic value estimates of $56–$69/share suggest meaningful undervaluation, supported by solid Tier 1 capital ratio of 14.8% and potential for return-on-equity improvement toward 9.5%
“I get a value per share of about $56 higher than the stock price of 46 at the time”
90d +0.5% · 180d +0.3% · 1y +25.9%
Chapter 10: Bank on it - Financial Service firm valuation
2024-03-22 BANKS neutral Aswath Damodaran · video
JP Morgan trades at 1.5x book value versus Citigroup's 0.5x, which is justified by superior return on equity, higher growth (~10–11%), and slightly higher regulatory capital ratios, making it fairly priced rather than cheap
“JP Morgan trades at 1.5 times Book value and the typical large Bank trades at 1.04 times Book value”
Chapter 10: Bank on it - Financial Service firm valuation
2023-09-14 NVDA bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Nvidia has a history of near-death drawdowns that create buying opportunities, and its optionality in finding new markets (e.g., AI) creates a long tail of value that justifies holding even at seemingly stretched valuations
“at the right price you should be willing to buy any company... add it to your watch list”
90d +5.5% · 180d +101.6% · 1y +161.3%
Unlocking the Secrets of Valuation in This Masterclass w/ Aswath Damodaran (TIP577)
2023-09-14 MSFT bullish Aswath Damodaran · video
Microsoft was purchased at an attractive valuation in 2013 when the market had not yet priced in its future growth, illustrating that large-cap tech can be bought at the right price if investors remain patient and don't categorically rule out the sector
“I didn't buy Microsoft today, I bought it in 2013”
90d +10.8% · 180d +23.1% · 1y +28.1%
Unlocking the Secrets of Valuation in This Masterclass w/ Aswath Damodaran (TIP577)
2023-09-14 ALIBABA / CHINESE TECH STOCKS neutral Aswath Damodaran · video
Despite incredible platforms and profitable products, Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba carry an unquantifiable discontinuous political risk from Beijing intervention that can stymie cash flows unpredictably, requiring scenario-weighted valuation rather than a…
“Beijing is part of your story... they can get in the way of your story about Alibaba and Tencent”
Unlocking the Secrets of Valuation in This Masterclass w/ Aswath Damodaran (TIP577)

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