Investors / stance tracking
What Tony Greer is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFounder, TG Macro
23 dated public stances tracked since 2024-10-16, most recently 2025-04-04. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tony Greer's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tony Greer is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Think we got something wrong? Report a misattribution — we correct it or take it down.
23
tracked stances
15
themes
2
side flips
2025-04-04
last heard
Returns 90d -0.3% 38% correct · 16 calls · 180d +2.7% 62% correct · 16 calls · 1y +12.0% 69% correct · 16 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | long ITB / long NVR / long DHI / long PHM (+1 legs) | basket | +3.9% | +22.3% | +0.6% |
| 2025-04-04 | USTS | bullish | -0.9% | +1.9% | +2.2% |
| 2025-04-04 | SILVER | bearish | -23.7% | -58.5% | -100.0% |
| 2025-04-04 | GOLD | bearish | -9.8% | -27.3% | -52.9% |
| 2025-03-08 | INDUSTRIALS | bullish | +10.0% | +15.3% | +31.1% |
| 2025-03-08 | BITCOIN | bearish | -21.3% | -28.5% | +23.4% |
| 2025-02-04 | URANIUM | bullish | -11.3% | +36.6% | +89.9% |
| 2025-02-04 | SPX | bullish | -6.1% | +5.5% | +15.4% |
| 2025-02-04 | GOLD | bullish | +16.9% | +18.4% | +72.9% |
| 2025-02-04 | GLNG | bullish | -6.1% | -2.7% | -2.5% |
| 2025-02-04 | BITCOIN | owns | -3.2% | +16.7% | -25.4% |
| 2024-10-16 | long ENERGY / short OIL | pair | -5.4% | -1.4% | +2.0% |
| 2024-10-16 | SPX | bullish | +0.3% | -6.8% | +14.8% |
| 2024-10-16 | Long Dur Treasuries | bearish | +9.6% | +6.2% | -0.1% |
| 2024-10-16 | GOLD | bullish | -0.0% | +19.9% | +60.4% |
| 2024-10-16 | BITCOIN | bullish | +42.8% | +25.1% | +60.0% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BITCOIN | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-03-08 | |
| GOLD | 3 | 2 bullish / 1 bearish | 2025-04-04 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-02-04 | |
| AIRLINES | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-03-08 | |
| CLOUD COMPUTING / CYBERSECURITY / SOFTWARE | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-16 | |
| GLNG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-02-04 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2025-04-04
long ITB / long NVR / long DHI / long PHM (+1 legs)
basket
Forward Guidance · video
Three-sigma single-session rallies in homebuilders while the broad market sold off signal a trend change, and once homebuilders establish a new trend they sustain it — making ITB and individual names the highest-conviction long in the current tape
“when builders change trend, they keep trending”
90d +3.9% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +0.6%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
Gold at $3,100 is showing a sentiment extreme — mainstream media is publishing beginner guides to buying gold and a friend's 10-year-old student bought it — classic contrarian sell signal after a strong run
“I made a big sale there yesterday”
90d -9.8% · 180d -27.3% · 1y -52.9%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
2025-04-04
NATURAL RESOURCES STOCKS
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
A sector rotation from tech into natural resources is underway, and buying beaten-down natural resource stocks offers better risk-reward than buying tech during this breakdown
“buying natural resources stocks rather than piling into tech — that shift is happening”
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
The 10-year yield has broken the 4.10% neckline of a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that targets 3.60%, implying meaningful bond price appreciation as recession pricing sets in
“breaking of the neckline at 410 which looks like it leads to 360”
90d -0.9% · 180d +1.9% · 1y +2.2%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
Silver is a sucker bet for investors who want leveraged gold exposure, driven by a 30-year-old conspiracy narrative about London shortages and a JPMorgan naked short that has never paid off
“Silver is the sucker bet of the commodity market. I don't care what anybody says”
90d -23.7% · 180d -58.5% · 1y -100.0%
This Is What Capitulation Feels Like | Weekly Roundup
Bitcoin spent too long distributing at highs, made lower highs, broke the range, and has a measured-move downside target near 70k with rallies to 92-95k as opportunities to sell
“sell rallies to 92 95k... a measured move target that I have is like 70k on the downside”
90d -21.3% · 180d -28.5% · 1y +23.4%
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
2025-03-08
SOLAR STOCKS
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Solar has been in a clean, orderly downtrend since Biden's inauguration and shows no signs of reversal — Tony is holding the short and only exits above a significant moving average
“this is a very clean and orderly downtrend right now where I've seen these before where I keep lowering my stop”
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
2025-03-08
SOFTWARE SECTOR
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Software has pulled all the way back to its 200-day moving average, providing a defined risk/reward entry at a level where the sector has historically found support and subsequently rallied
“software... pulled all the way back into trend the 200 day moving average”
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
Industrial miners have pulled back into a huge support level without breaking their broader sideways range, creating an asymmetric risk/reward entry point during the general market selloff
“industrial miners also pulled into a huge support level didn't break its sideways range broadly speaking”
90d +10.0% · 180d +15.3% · 1y +31.1%
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
2025-03-08
AIRLINES
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Airlines have gotten the piss taken out of them and pulled back sharply, offering a chart-based risk/reward entry at support within the broader market selloff washout
“Airlines... also got walled up this week... what gives me a good chance to not get my ass kicked”
Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
2025-02-04
short NVDA / long FINANCIALS, BROKER-DEALERS, AIRLINES, TRANSPORTS, CLOUD SOFTWARE, CYBERSECURITY, INTERNET
pair
Wealthion · video
The semiconductor bubble has found its pin in DeepSeek, making semis a source of funds that rotates into the Trump-trade breakout sectors—financials, broker-dealers, transports, cloud software, and cybersecurity—that have been consolidating since November
“you're going to see semiconductors become a source of funds for the other sectors of those Trump trades”
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
Post-COVID money-supply doubling has permanently debased the dollar, driving persistent consumer price inflation and making precious metals a durable store of value as fiat currency loses purchasing power
“gold is exploding Bitcoin won't trade the bid because everybody wants an alternative currency”
90d +16.9% · 180d +18.4% · 1y +72.9%
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
The bull market remains structurally intact because rates have backed off their highs, a business-friendly administration is in place, and the DeepSeek-driven semiconductor volatility is headline noise that the broader index is already absorbing
“the bull market in the S&P is going to be as ferocious as it ever was”
90d -6.1% · 180d +5.5% · 1y +15.4%
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
Said again: 2025-03-08 (Forward Guidance)
The most crypto-friendly administration in history combined with accelerating institutional ETF inflows confirm Bitcoin's non-zero corporate allocation trend, and having survived being left for dead twice it is not going away
“I'm long in my trading account it's a 60% trade right now knock on wood one of the best trades I have”
90d -3.2% · 180d +16.7% · 1y -25.4%
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
2025-02-04
NATURAL GAS
bullish
Wealthion · video
Natural gas is the cheapest commodity on an inflation-adjusted basis and is the most likely near-term primary power source for AI energy demand, with a structural export opportunity as LNG infrastructure is built to close the US-overseas price arbitrage
“natural gas is the cheapest of them all”
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
Golar LNG is his preferred vehicle for the LNG export buildout thesis, where new liquefaction capacity closes the massive US-to-overseas price arbitrage and eventually converges to a single global gas price
“GLNG because it's my favorite stock in the space”
90d -6.1% · 180d -2.7% · 1y -2.5%
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
A uranium-friendly energy secretary with an SMR board seat will materially expand nuclear's share of the US energy portfolio, and AI power demand makes this the first inning of a long structural build-out cycle
“we're in the first inning of the AI Power Generation theme trade”
90d -11.3% · 180d +36.6% · 1y +89.9%
Tony Greer: AI Crashes, But The Bull Market Rages On
2024-10-16
long ENERGY / short OIL
pair
Forward Guidance · video
A Trump victory is likely to push drill-friendly policy that oversupplies crude and depresses the commodity price, while energy companies simultaneously re-rate on capex freedom and deregulation, making long equity / short crude a natural spread.
90d -5.4% · 180d -1.4% · 1y +2.0%
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
Pervasive global fiat debasement and fiscal irresponsibility across all administrations, combined with central bank buying (including Saudi Arabia), makes gold a sustained bull market that is just beginning its trending phase after years of consolidation.
“gold is fucking bull market it's been a beautiful breakout”
90d -0.0% · 180d +19.9% · 1y +60.4%
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
Cyclicals, financials, industrials, and technology are all breaking out simultaneously — a broad-based bull market supported by rising S&P earnings and a market that successfully held progressively shallower dips (5200, then 5600) throughout 2024.
“when I see cyclical sectors and Technology breaking out at the same time man the S&P is an easy long for me”
90d +0.3% · 180d -6.8% · 1y +14.8%
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
Serious institutional inflows via corporate buyers are making an irreversible commitment to crypto, and Bitcoin is coiling in a flag near all-time highs after consolidating between 50k-70k — the longer the consolidation near highs, the more explosive the…
“if it can go from 70 to 150k or something like that that's a I want to be a part of that”
90d +42.8% · 180d +25.1% · 1y +60.0%
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
2024-10-16
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
The Fed's 50bp cut into a still-healthy economy risks reigniting headline inflation, and bond markets were mispriced to the upside pricing in an extreme growth scare that has not materialized, setting up a policy-error repricing.
“I kind of I think I'd probably go towards that trade a little bit more quite honestly”
90d +9.6% · 180d +6.2% · 1y -0.1%
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
2024-10-16
CLOUD COMPUTING / CYBERSECURITY / SOFTWARE
owns
Forward Guidance · video
Three tech subsectors simultaneously broke out to new all-time highs after digesting hot CPI and a 50bp rate cut, signaling first-inning breakouts from year-long consolidations lagging semiconductors — a technically actionable confirmation that the market can…
“I've added the software sector as a new long to my view Matrix”
The Bull Market Is Broadening | Tony Greer
Idea Scout Weekly
Every Sunday: who said what across the tape we track — 1766 voices, 5,177 episodes and articles — with side-flips and points of disagreement called out. Free. How we track it.
Free · double opt-in · unsubscribe in one click