Investors / stance tracking
What Carl Icahn is saying
Activist investor — Icahn Enterprises
23 dated public stances tracked since 2018-08-30, most recently 2022-11-22. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Carl Icahn's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Carl Icahn is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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23
tracked stances
19
themes
0
side flips
2022-11-22
last heard
Returns 90d +5.2% (n=10) · 180d -0.9% (n=10) · 1y +7.3% (n=10)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENERGY | 3 | 3 bullish | 2022-11-03 | |
| AAPL | 2 | 2 bullish | 2018-10-29 | |
| Commercial Real Estate | 2 | 2 bearish | 2022-02-17 | |
| ALL | 1 | 1 bullish | 2021-05-26 | |
| BITCOIN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2021-05-26 | |
| BROAD US EQUITY MARKET | 1 | 1 bearish | 2018-08-30 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2022-11-22
GME
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
GameStop's fundamentals do not justify its meme-driven valuation, and Icahn has no faith in the Ryan Cohen turnaround plan, maintaining a several-hundred-million-dollar short since the January 2021 peak near $483
“GameStop shouldn't have been trading at 483 based on the fundamentals”
90d +21.4% · 180d +7.9% · 1y +53.3%
Icahn Said to Hold Large GameStop Short Position
2022-11-03
SPX
short
Carl Icahn · video
Inflation is structural and persistent, corporate debt taken on at cheap rates must now be refinanced at higher rates hurting earnings, and median household net worth is essentially non-existent, making the broad market overpriced
“I have a very big hedge on now, I think we have a major problem”
90d -11.2% · 180d -11.7% · 1y -19.0%
Carl Icahn Speaks About Inflation, Jerome Powell, And More At The Forbes Iconoclast Summit
2022-11-03
LONG-DURATION / GROWTH EQUITIES
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Powell is serious about fighting inflation and will not pivot, meaning the rate-driven repricing of overvalued companies is far from over and those calling for a pivot are conflicted because they are invested in overpriced names
“all these guys saying they should pivot — a lot of them are telling you that because they put people into companies that are overpriced”
Carl Icahn Speaks About Inflation, Jerome Powell, And More At The Forbes Iconoclast Summit
2022-11-03
ENERGY
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
ESG-driven regulatory environment drove small refineries out of business, widening crack spreads dramatically, while CVI also owns a unique fertilizer plant that produces without natural gas — creating irreplaceable assets with no new competitive supply…
“the crack spread has widened tremendously, the diesel crack has gone up as high as 75 or 80”
90d -1.4% · 180d -9.0% · 1y -0.4%
Carl Icahn Speaks About Inflation, Jerome Powell, And More At The Forbes Iconoclast Summit
2022-11-03
CCK
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Aluminum can industry has natural secular growth as plastic containers are phased out for environmental reasons, CCK has high barriers to entry due to shipping economics, and earnings have been depressed by unnecessary diversification that Icahn believes can…
“it's in an industry that is not going to be affected that badly in my opinion and in fact it's growing”
90d +21.2% · 180d +15.0% · 1y +14.3%
Carl Icahn Speaks About Inflation, Jerome Powell, And More At The Forbes Iconoclast Summit
2022-02-17
IEP
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
IEP serves as a vehicle for activist investing in undervalued, poorly managed companies where operational and governance improvements unlock hidden value, generating superior long-term returns vs the S&P 500
“if you reinvested the dividends you made 1900 percent and I think the S&P is only 500 percent”
90d +2.4% · 180d +7.0% · 1y +14.2%
Full Interview: Carl Icahn on Fed Policy, Activist Investing and McDonald's
2022-02-17
SW
owns
Carl Icahn · video
Icahn believes Southwest Gas is undervalued due to an entrenched do-nothing board and ill-conceived Questar pipeline acquisition; his tender offer at $75 against a ~$61 pre-involvement price reflects confidence in unlocking that value through board change
“we're paying 75 the stock would be 61 or something if we weren't there...we believe it will be successful”
90d -2.2% · 180d -6.6% · 1y -28.1%
Full Interview: Carl Icahn on Fed Policy, Activist Investing and McDonald's
2022-02-17
ENERGY
owns
Carl Icahn · video
Icahn is long OXY through a refinery position and believes a commodity supercycle in energy is underway, evidenced by oil prices swinging from negative $30 to over $90 per barrel
“we are involved in occidental...and we have a lot of that OXY and that has got the benefit of the subcycle”
90d +20.5% · 180d +14.5% · 1y +28.7%
Full Interview: Carl Icahn on Fed Policy, Activist Investing and McDonald's
2022-02-17
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Commercial real estate loans backing malls are deteriorating similarly to pre-2008 mortgage CDOs, and Icahn believes the market is manipulated by funds selling CDS insurance without properly disclosing risk, creating mispricing that favors the short side
“we still believe in other words some of these malls have come...I see a similarity to what happened in oh eight”
90d +7.3% · 180d -0.4% · 1y +9.9%
Full Interview: Carl Icahn on Fed Policy, Activist Investing and McDonald's
2021-05-26
CMBX
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Malls are overbuilt and overvalued, yet CMBX instruments offer only ~2% over treasuries while carrying 40-50% downside risk, making the risk/reward absurd
“you only make two percent more than treasuries that's your best and you really can lose 40 50 percent”
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2021-05-26
ALL
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Allstate traded at ~7x earnings vs. Progressive's ~17x despite being a comparably strong insurer, with a clear path to close the valuation gap by cutting costs and transitioning to a direct-to-consumer model
“progressive was 17 times earnings, allstate was seven — allstate's a great company”
90d +1.6% · 180d -15.3% · 1y +1.2%
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2021-05-26
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Commercial real estate was overbuilt pre-COVID with ridiculously low cap rates, and COVID was the nail in the coffin, making leveraged exposure via CMBX and related instruments likely to suffer severe losses
“i think in the real estate market to some extent in the commercial real estate there could be problems”
90d -7.2% · 180d -10.9% · 1y -0.9%
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2021-05-26
BITCOIN
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Bitcoin functions as a store of value alternative to a dollar being debased by money printing, but Icahn has not yet bought in and is still evaluating the space
“i don't own any at this point but i'm looking at the whole business”
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2021-05-26
RENEWABLE FUEL / REFINERY TRANSITION
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Existing refineries like CVR Energy (CVI) can be converted to renewable fuel production at far lower cost than greenfield plants, positioning them advantageously as voter/regulatory pressure forces the energy transition
“a refinery is the least costly way to build a renewable fuel plant”
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2021-05-26
ETHEREUM
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Ethereum offers dual utility as both a payment system and a store of value underpinned by blockchain verification, making it more than just a speculative asset, though Icahn has not yet taken a position
“ethereum is really sort of a value-added company”
Icahn on Renewables Investing, Cryptocurrencies, Allstate
2018-10-29
AAPL
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Apple is misunderstood as a mere hardware company when it has built an unassailable ecosystem; ex-cash it trades at only 11x earnings while the S&P trades at 18x with declining earnings, making it a generational mispricing
“every 50 years you get a company like this that has everything going for it”
On Investing, Markets and his Life | Carl Icahn
2018-10-29
USTS
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Junk bond credit spreads at only ~300bps above Treasuries are dangerously compressed just as rates are set to rise, and the Volcker Rule has eliminated bank prop-desk liquidity that historically cushioned the exit — when retail investors in high-yield funds…
“what's even more dangerous than the actual stock market is the high-yield market”
On Investing, Markets and his Life | Carl Icahn
2018-10-29
ENERGY
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Energy is cyclically depressed right now and likely gets worse before it recovers, but Icahn holds significant long positions in anticipation of a multi-year cyclical turn
“I think it will turn around three years from now four years well maybe sooner”
On Investing, Markets and his Life | Carl Icahn
2018-10-15
VMW
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
VMware is a great company at a tipping point moving into cloud which should increase earnings more than expected, and the DVMT tracker trades at a 15-40% discount to VMware's true value
“VMware itself is one of the great companies around... it's got the ingredients Apple had”
Full interview with Carl Icahn
2018-10-15
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
Keeping interest rates abnormally low forces a future reckoning as the Fed cannot indefinitely print money without stoking inflation that will eventually push rates higher and act as a damper on equity markets
“if you keep them abnormally low you're only gonna pay a big price for that by definition”
Full interview with Carl Icahn
2018-10-15
TARIFF-SENSITIVE EQUITIES / BROAD MARKET
neutral
Carl Icahn · video
Tariffs represent an extremely dangerous variable with so many unknowns that the market direction is uncertain, though Icahn remains hedged on his long equity positions given this risk
“tariffs... helped bring the crash of twenty-nine... extremely dangerous game”
Full interview with Carl Icahn
2018-08-30
AAPL
bullish
Carl Icahn · video
Apple is not a hardware company but an ecosystem business trading at only 11x earnings versus the S&P at 18x, making it absurdly undervalued with 30%+ earnings growth potential
“it's 11 times earnings its absurdity and I think it's one of the every 50 years you get a company like this”
Carl Icahn Interview 2018 Net Worth $19 Billion
2018-08-30
BROAD US EQUITY MARKET
bearish
Carl Icahn · video
The market is trading at 17-18x S&P multiples while earnings are declining 2-3%, driven purely by zero interest rates rather than fundamentals, making a significant correction highly likely
“you wouldn't buy a stock that trades at 18 times that you believe is gonna have earnings go down”
Carl Icahn Interview 2018 Net Worth $19 Billion
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