Partner, The MacroStrategy Partnership
6 dated public stances tracked since 2025-04-10, most recently 2025-04-10. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Julien Garran's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Julien Garran is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2025-04-10
short Big Tech / long Commodities Broad
pair
Wealthion · video
The macro shift away from financial capital toward blue-collar/physical capital mirrors the 2000 tech bust: the primary trade is short big tech (antitrust headwinds, AI bubble deflation, earnings derating) paired with long resources (commodities, miners, EM)…
“what you wanted at that point was to be short of tech and long of resources”
90d -8.4% · 180d -12.8% · 1y +2.6%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
2025-04-10
India Equities
bullish
Wealthion · video
India sits in the $10–15k per-capita income sweet spot where a burgeoning middle class drives resource-intensive growth; as dollar weakness channels offshore liquidity into EM, India is one of two markets Garran specifically highlights as capable of very…
“the two that I would highlight are India and Vietnam”
90d +10.2% · 180d +4.7% · 1y -2.3%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
2025-04-10
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
A confluence of peak valuations, high leverage, antitrust pressure on big-tech earnings, rising savings rates, and fiscal/trade-deficit contraction creates a triple threat to corporate profitability that drives a prolonged bear market lasting at least 12…
“this is the first aggressive move in what is going to be a longer-term bare market”
90d -19.3% · 180d -28.3% · 1y -31.0%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
2025-04-10
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
In the early stages of a reflationary cycle driven by Fed easing and dollar weakness, precious metals are historically the first asset class to benefit as real rates fall and offshore dollar liquidity expands.
“it tends to be bullish for precious metals in the very early stages”
90d +4.5% · 180d +25.3% · 1y +49.5%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
2025-04-10
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
Trump is categorically a weak-dollar president like Nixon — he will pressure the Fed to ease, install a dovish Fed chair in 2026, and pursue deliberate policies (sovereign wealth fund, capital account manipulation) to push money offshore and shrink the…
“I believe categorically he's a weak dollar president like Nixon was”
90d +2.2% · 180d -0.3% · 1y -2.4%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
2025-04-10
NVDA
bearish
Wealthion · video
LLM training has hit a diminishing-returns wall (compute costs scale 80x for marginal accuracy gains), inference costs have collapsed (H100 rental rates from $8/hr to $1.35/hr), Microsoft is cancelling 2GW of data center capacity, and there is already years…
“we are already in a massive bare market for compute... the dominoes are starting to fall”
90d -51.4% · 180d -72.0% · 1y -75.4%
Julien Garran: The Real Trump Trade Is a Blue-Collar Economic Revolution
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