Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
6 dated public stances tracked since 2024-11-19, most recently 2026-07-10. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Cembalest's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Cembalest is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2026-07-10
NVDA
bearish
The Compound · video
Hyperscalers' in-house accelerators (Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta NIA, Microsoft Maya) deliver 30–40% total cost-of-ownership reductions versus Nvidia GPUs, eroding demand from Nvidia's largest customers even as Nvidia retains a large backlog; the…
“all those companies have been able to build their own accelerators”
90d -9.4%
The Real Ticking Time Bomb | TCAF 250
2026-07-10
USD
bullish
The Compound · video
Dollar's share of world trade, SWIFT payments, FX reserves, and cross-border loans remains dominant and stable with no currency gaining meaningful share, so reducing USD exposure would be premature profit-taking against unbroken pillars
“none of the pillars of the dollar as the world reserve currency are shifting”
90d +2.1%
The Real Ticking Time Bomb | TCAF 250
2026-07-10
KOSPI
bearish
The Compound · video
Margin loans on the KOSPI have spiked to levels consistent with prior Korean retail capitulation peaks (1997, 2008), signaling a late-cycle crowded long in memory stocks that depend on hyperscaler capex proving out within six months
“by the time those guys start to pile into stuff you're really really really late in the game”
The Real Ticking Time Bomb | TCAF 250
2025-07-28
long SPX / short European Equities
pair
The Compound · video
The euro currency union caused macroeconomic divergence rather than convergence, European political objectives routinely override market/economic objectives, and continent-wide industrial departures plus structurally high electricity costs make European…
“I don't think there will ever be an asset allocation position we will have that will ever make as much as what we've made on that”
90d +1.1% · 180d -2.5% · 1y -0.6%
Everything I Learned From 20 Years Running Research at JPMorgan | LFTC
2025-07-28
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
After the liberation-day tariff selloff produced a 20% correction, historical base rates going back 100 years show markets are higher 85% of the time one year after a 20% drawdown, and corporate fundamentals (earnings, economic conditions) were not broken…
“every time there's a 20% sell-off, 85% of the time a year later the markets are higher”
90d +7.9% · 180d +9.4% · 1y +17.6%
Everything I Learned From 20 Years Running Research at JPMorgan | LFTC
2024-11-19
BANKS
bullish
The Compound · video
Trump presidency delivers a steeper yield curve and lighter regulation, removing the two biggest structural headwinds that have depressed bank profitability
“a steeper yield curve a little less regulation and that's good for banks”
90d -0.3% · 180d -6.5% · 1y -3.2%
Something's Going to Break, We Don't Know What
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