Investors / stance tracking
What Dev Kantesaria is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowManaging partner, Valley Forge Capital
17 dated public stances tracked since 2019-09-03, most recently 2025-08-27. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Dev Kantesaria's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Dev Kantesaria is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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17
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2025-08-27
last heard
Returns 90d +3.6% 57% correct · 14 calls · 180d +4.7% 50% correct · 14 calls · 1y +9.5% 50% correct · 14 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-27 | SPGI | bullish | -9.9% | -26.2% | -15.5% |
| 2025-08-27 | FICO | bullish | +27.5% | -9.7% | -18.5% |
| 2024-12-05 | SPGI | bullish | +1.9% | +0.1% | -2.3% |
| 2023-05-29 | FICO | bullish | +9.4% | +36.9% | +75.2% |
| 2022-10-27 | long V / long MA | basket | +15.1% | +14.3% | +13.9% |
| 2022-10-27 | FICO | bullish | +35.5% | +49.5% | +78.7% |
| 2022-10-27 | AMZN | bullish | -12.4% | -7.6% | +15.1% |
| 2021-10-22 | long MCO / long SPGI | basket | -8.2% | -11.7% | -34.0% |
| 2021-10-22 | long MCO / long SPGI | basket | -8.2% | -11.7% | -34.0% |
| 2021-10-22 | SPX | bullish | -1.1% | -1.2% | -15.1% |
| 2021-10-22 | AMZN | owns | -9.1% | -7.7% | -28.2% |
| 2019-09-03 | long V / long MA | basket | +2.0% | +8.7% | +25.5% |
| 2019-09-03 | MCO | bullish | +5.9% | +22.3% | +44.1% |
| 2019-09-03 | FICO | bullish | +2.3% | +10.0% | +28.1% |
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | 4 | 4 bullish | 2025-08-27 | |
| AMZN | 2 | 2 bullish | 2022-10-27 | |
| SPGI | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-08-27 | |
| CYCLICAL STOCKS | 1 | 1 bearish | 2022-10-27 | |
| FAANG | 1 | 1 bullish | 2021-10-22 | |
| MCO | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-09-03 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
S&P Global's ratings duopoly has structural pricing power because issuers pay 30–50bps more in interest without a rating—far exceeding the rating fee—making price competition impossible and enabling consistent above-inflation fee increases in any macro regime
“effectively, there is no way to undercut Moody's or S&P on price”
90d -9.9% · 180d -26.2% · 1y -15.5%
Dev Kantesaria: Great Compounding Machines That Crush The Market (Plus, New Stocks He Has Bought)
FICO's credit scoring monopoly—entrenched by Fannie/Freddie regulatory mandate in 1995 and unraised for 25 years—is now capturing enormous untapped pricing power at 95% incremental margins, producing 88% operating margins in the scores segment with zero…
“FICO could increase its pricing by 10x and it would still be a high value to mortgage loans relative to the cost”
90d +27.5% · 180d -9.7% · 1y -18.5%
Dev Kantesaria: Great Compounding Machines That Crush The Market (Plus, New Stocks He Has Bought)
S&P Global's ratings business is a toll collector on all debt issuance — cyclical volume troughs are temporary, and the company uses downturns to raise prices so that when issuance rebounds it earns more per unit; the index business adds a second…
“I think of Moody's and S&P as toll collectors — when the toll collectors go to lunch the cars back up, but they all have to get to the other side”
90d +1.9% · 180d +0.1% · 1y -2.3%
Investing in Exceptional Businesses for the Long Run w/ Dev Kantesaria (TIP680)
FICO's scores business has an unassailable network effect and natural monopoly in consumer credit — near-peak predictability eliminates AI disruption risk, pricing power runway is enormous given scores cost <$1 on a $400K mortgage decision, and the platform…
“you really can't sit down on a piece of paper and design a Better Business than what FICO is”
90d +9.4% · 180d +36.9% · 1y +75.2%
FICO: A High Score Business - [Business Breakdowns, EP.111]
2022-10-27
long V / long MA
basket
Dev Kantesaria · video
Visa and Mastercard are natural network-effect oligopolies where end users benefit from the product, making regulatory headwinds like the Durban amendment temporary entry points rather than structural threats
“that was our entry point into those amazing businesses”
90d +15.1% · 180d +14.3% · 1y +13.9%
Dev Kantesaria, what is your formula for quality investing?
2022-10-27
QUALITY GROWTH EQUITIES
bullish
Dev Kantesaria · video
High-quality growth companies with strong organic volume and pricing growth have been overshadowed by cyclical COVID-rebound names, creating generationally attractive entry prices before GDP reverts to 0–2% and predictable growers are re-prized
“quality growth has been largely ignored and that would be the place where we would be looking”
Dev Kantesaria, what is your formula for quality investing?
Amazon has the greatest optionality of any large-cap tech to reach $10T via AWS volume growth, advertising share gains versus Google/Meta/TikTok, Prime pricing power, and an upcoming operating-earnings inflection as e-commerce costs normalize post-COVID
“Amazon has the most optionality to go from where it is today to being a $10 trillion company”
90d -12.4% · 180d -7.6% · 1y +15.1%
Dev Kantesaria, what is your formula for quality investing?
Fair Isaac is a monopoly in US consumer credit scores, giving it exceptional pricing power and earnings predictability that justified a seven-year monitoring period before investing
“the monopoly business in consumer credit scores here in the US”
90d +35.5% · 180d +49.5% · 1y +78.7%
Dev Kantesaria, what is your formula for quality investing?
2022-10-27
CYCLICAL STOCKS
bearish
Dev Kantesaria · video
Cyclicals posted strong earnings on the COVID economic rebound but speculators cannot reliably time their exit, and as GDP growth normalizes the outperformance will reverse badly
“we know how the story ends and it ends badly and the question is can the speculators market time their entries and exits”
Dev Kantesaria, what is your formula for quality investing?
2021-10-22
long MCO / long SPGI
basket
Dev Kantesaria · video
MCO and SPGI form a natural duopoly controlling ~90% of global debt ratings where competitors literally cannot undercut on price — switching to a smaller agency costs issuers 30-50bps more in interest rates — giving the pair durable inflation-plus pricing…
“ninety percent of all the debt in the world has a moody's and an s p rating...you could go to ibm and offer your services for free and you still want to use moody's”
90d -8.2% · 180d -11.7% · 1y -34.0%
Buffett Investing Principles w/ Dev Kantesaria (TIP389)
2021-10-22
long MCO / long SPGI
basket
Dev Kantesaria · video
Moody's and S&P Global form a natural duopoly covering ~90% of global debt ratings where switching to competitors costs issuers 30-50bps in higher interest rates, giving them unassailable pricing power, inflation-plus revenue growth, capital efficiency, and…
“I've tried to give away those companies at dinner parties for as long as I can remember”
90d -8.2% · 180d -11.7% · 1y -34.0%
389 TIP. Buffett's Core Principles w/ Dev Kantesaria
Amazon's services businesses (advertising, cloud) are becoming direct competitive threats to Facebook and Google's ad revenue, offering a multi-year growth runway beyond core retail
“we do own amazon in the portfolio we think that some of the services businesses that amazon has are going to be fantastic”
90d -9.1% · 180d -7.7% · 1y -28.2%
Buffett Investing Principles w/ Dev Kantesaria (TIP389)
Said again: 2021-10-22 (Dev Kantesaria)
The ~5% S&P 500 earnings yield vs. the 1.4-1.5% 10-year Treasury represents a historically wide spread, making equities — especially high-quality compounders with strong organic growth — the best asset class to preserve and grow purchasing power in a secular…
“the s&p 500 is a fine place to put your money for the next 10 years to grow your buying power”
90d -1.1% · 180d -1.2% · 1y -15.1%
389 TIP. Buffett's Core Principles w/ Dev Kantesaria
2021-10-22
FAANG
bullish
Dev Kantesaria · video
FAANG stocks are highly dominant businesses with superior organic growth profiles versus the S&P 500 broadly, and despite rising capital intensity their business models are so strong that they remain appropriately valued on a risk-reward basis and should…
“I couldn't argue with anyone that wanted to own a basket of fang stocks today”
389 TIP. Buffett's Core Principles w/ Dev Kantesaria
Said again: 2021-10-22 (Dev Kantesaria)
2019-09-03
long V / long MA
basket
Dev Kantesaria · video
Visa and Mastercard jointly control virtually every global payment transaction and collect a small toll on each, with secular tailwinds from the ongoing shift to electronic payments sustaining durable growth absent regulatory price controls
“we like them both and we own them both”
90d +2.0% · 180d +8.7% · 1y +25.5%
Market Monitor: Dev Kantesaria
Virtual monopoly on consumer credit scores enables sustained above-inflation price increases across mortgage, auto, and other lending channels while still representing a small fraction of total credit decision costs
“they've instituted special price increases last year it was mortgages this year it's auto loans”
90d +2.3% · 180d +10.0% · 1y +28.1%
Market Monitor: Dev Kantesaria
Moody's and S&P collectively rate 90% of global debt issuance, acting as unavoidable toll collectors on a large wave of debt that needs to be issued and refinanced over the next decade, with consistent above-inflation pricing power
“you can think of them as toll collectors when someone needs to issue debt you have to go through Moody's and S&P”
90d +5.9% · 180d +22.3% · 1y +44.1%
Market Monitor: Dev Kantesaria
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