Investors / stance tracking
What John Burbank is saying
Founder, Passport Capital
8 dated public stances tracked since 2019-09-24, most recently 2019-09-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of John Burbank's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. John Burbank is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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8
tracked stances
8
themes
0
side flips
2019-09-24
last heard
Returns 90d +7.5% (n=5) · 180d +35.8% (n=5) · 1y +26.7% (n=5)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bearish | 2019-09-24 | |
| ENERGY | 1 | 1 bearish | 2019-09-24 | |
| Em Equities | 1 | 1 bearish | 2019-09-24 | |
| S | 1 | 1 bearish | 2019-09-24 | |
| SPX | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-09-24 | |
| US TECHNOLOGY AND BIOTECH LEADERS | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-09-24 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2019-09-24
VIPS
owns
Kyle Bass · video
New China internet/e-commerce growth was structurally undervalued when nobody wanted Chinese equities; position grew from 6-7% to 30% as thesis played out and company went from ~$28 to $225
“the thing went up to 225 right... it's now a 6% position”
90d +57.0% · 180d +63.0% · 1y +83.9%
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
ENERGY
bearish
Kyle Bass · video
Saudi supply strategy, strong dollar, and deflation combine to extend oil price weakness, creating high-yield and MLP distress among leveraged producers while only low-cost operators survive
“energy is not going to do well really if dollar rallies... I just want no part of energy”
90d -3.7% · 180d +58.6% · 1y +45.2%
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
Commodities Broad
short
Kyle Bass · video
Rising dollar and deflationary deleveraging event will hit commodity equities disproportionately as QE-supported pricing assumptions are overturned and marginal producers face distress
“short things like commodity equities... I just want no part of energy”
90d -5.0% · 180d +26.7% · 1y +14.6%
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
Em Equities
bearish
Kyle Bass · video
EM was funded by QE-driven weak dollar and foreign inflows that are now reversing; a strong dollar environment destroys EM returns and forces capital repatriation to US equities
“I think EM is a lot better off than it was but I think it still gets destroyed”
90d -10.7% · 180d +24.1% · 1y -7.4%
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
US TECHNOLOGY AND BIOTECH LEADERS
owns
Kyle Bass · video
Winner-take-all innovation dynamics and falling technology costs will allow leading US tech and biotech companies to capture outsized global share with margins and reach the market is underestimating
“the risk sake is more like tech or biotech or leading consumer... leading change is where I put my risk”
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
SPX
bullish
Kyle Bass · video
In a risk-off deleveraging event driven by dollar strength and liquidity contraction, small caps suffer disproportionate sector-driven selling unrelated to fundamentals, making them effective hedges against long large-cap positions
“I knew the price was wherever it was gonna go... I just stopped buying them or thinking about them”
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
USD
bullish
Kyle Bass · video
QE-driven positioning in weak dollar is unwinding as Fed tightens and global liquidity contracts, forcing a reversal into dollar strength that overturns most marginal trades
“I'm loving the dollar... the dollar rising in itself is deflationary”
90d +0.0% · 180d +6.5% · 1y -2.8%
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
2019-09-24
S
short
Kyle Bass · video
With vol low and QE-era positioning extremely long risk assets, near-the-money puts offer asymmetric payoff in a deleveraging event while providing cash to buy dislocated assets at lows
“vol was so low... I decided in July to go to owning puts instead of waging war with different small positions”
Kyle Bass Interviews Contrarian John Burbank On His Investment Strategy
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