Investors / stance tracking
What Nick Colas is saying
Co-Founder, DataTrek Research
11 dated public stances tracked since 2024-08-19, most recently 2026-08-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Nick Colas's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Nick Colas is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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11
tracked stances
8
themes
1
side flips
2026-08-24
last heard
Returns 90d +1.2% (n=8) · 180d +4.2% (n=8) · 1y +14.1% (n=7)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
SPX — bullish2024-12-20 → bearish2026-08-24
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-08-24 | |
| FINANCIALS SECTOR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-09-15 | |
| GOLD | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-10-28 | |
| Long Dur Treasuries | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-08-24 | |
| US FINANCIALS SECTOR | 1 | 1 bullish | 2024-12-16 | |
| US LARGE-CAP TECH | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-06-08 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-08-24
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
The Compound · video
Real yields (not inflation expectations, which have been flat) have broken out from ~2% to ~3%, flipping 30-year Treasuries from a +7.8% CAGR asset in the 2010s to a -4.4% CAGR asset this decade, with no catalyst to reverse until the US economy meaningfully…
“This went from being a massive money-making trade... to being just very destructive to portfolio returns”
Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now | WDWL
2026-08-24
SPX
bearish
The Compound · video
Cap-weighted S&P now has ~38-40% in tech that has shifted from returning cash to shareholders to a VC-like reinvestment-and-leverage model, making it effectively a concentrated bet on a science project; equal-weight cuts that exposure to ~14% and provides…
“Jessica and I have not been fans of equal weight S&P for a long time. I see a point of it now”
Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now | WDWL
2026-08-24
USTS
bearish
The Compound · video
Four simultaneous forces keep real yields elevated and climbing — Fed QE unwind complete, higher neutral rate implied by recession-proof economy, rising federal deficits, and AI-driven corporate bond supply crowding out Treasuries — so staying short duration…
“keep portfolio durations pretty short, like under five years until the US economy weakens”
Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now | WDWL
2026-06-08
US LARGE-CAP TECH
bearish
The Compound · video
The 6 standard deviation 50-day tech outperformance is unprecedented in the last decade and market-making algos are explicitly built on this volatility math, meaning they will widen spreads and amplify further selling rather than provide a floor
“I will not walk away from a six standard deviation move. Let's be a little cautious here”
A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What? | WDWL?
2025-09-15
FINANCIALS SECTOR
bullish
The Compound · video
Forward earnings estimates for financials are up 10% YTD but the sector's PE multiple has expanded only 1%, creating a valuation gap that should close as deregulation, fintech additions (Robinhood, Coinbase), and bank turnarounds (Wells Fargo, Citi) drive a…
“financials to me is like the easiest trade into year end I think”
You Don’t Want a 50 Basis Point Rate Cut - They Always Mean Recession
2025-03-10
USMV
bullish
The Compound · video
USMV's sector weightings track much closer to the S&P 500 than SPLV, avoiding massive tech underweighting, which preserves upside capture in tech rallies while still providing minimum-volatility downside protection
“I don't like massive sector drift even for an important style like minvol”
90d +0.3% · 180d +1.7% · 1y +4.5%
How to Survive the Growth Stock Massacre | WDWL
2024-12-20
SPX
bullish
The Compound · video
VIX at 27.6 is exactly one standard deviation from the long-term mean and historically the last two times VIX closed at this level during the current rally the S&P was up 3.5-5.2% one month later, and the buy-the-VIX-spike rule only fails in a bear market…
“I have two rules for taking risk — always buy a VIX spike”
90d -4.3% · 180d +1.4% · 1y +17.2%
Cut Your Losses, Size up Your Winners | TCAF 170
2024-12-16
US FINANCIALS SECTOR
bullish
The Compound · video
Financials are getting the PE multiple re-rating that cyclicals earn after proving themselves through a long wilderness period — stress-tested balance sheets, deregulation as a secondary catalyst, and the sector deserving a higher multiple as the economy…
“they deserve a higher PE multiple I had no mentor in the business that covered cyclicals that didn't say cyclicals always get the PE revaluation in the next cycle”
The Biggest Investing Lessons of 2024
2024-12-16
long SPX / short International Dev
pair
The Compound · video
US companies generate structurally superior ROE (top-5 S&P avg 62% vs EAFE top-5 avg 39%), capital persistently crowds into US large caps across all rate environments while international equities only outperform in the narrow window when rates are falling and…
“nothing else really feels like it's going to work”
90d -6.3% · 180d -6.7% · 1y -6.7%
The Biggest Investing Lessons of 2024
2024-10-28
GOLD
bullish
The Compound · video
Non-US central banks have doubled their share of annual gold production purchases (from ~10% to >20%) as a structural reserve diversification away from dollar assets that can be sanctioned or frozen, a trend accelerated by the Russia-Ukraine sanctions…
“they've upped their gold purchases by roughly double in terms of percentage of supply annually”
90d -0.1% · 180d +22.0% · 1y +43.8%
Here's the Real Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising
2024-08-19
long BANKS / short Big Tech
pair
The Compound · video
The Q3 cyclical rotation out of mega-cap tech into small caps, financials, and industrials remains intact despite the August volatility spike, as evidenced by Russell 2000 up 4.3% vs NASDAQ still negative for Q3, and the rotation will reassert as volatility…
“financials are working, industrials are working, small caps are working”
90d +6.2% · 180d +1.6% · 1y -1.8%
Only One Factor Drives Bitcoin Prices and This Is It
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