Investors / stance tracking
What Michael Oliver is saying
Founder, Momentum Structural Analysis
15 dated public stances tracked since 2025-02-11, most recently 2026-03-24. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Michael Oliver's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Michael Oliver is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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15
tracked stances
10
themes
0
side flips
2026-03-24
last heard
Returns 90d +1.9% (n=25) · 180d +5.0% (n=24) · 1y +28.0% (n=24)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-07-01 | |
| SILVER | 2 | 2 bullish | 2025-07-01 | |
| SPX | 2 | 2 bearish | 2026-03-24 | |
| Commercial Real Estate | 1 | 1 bearish | 2025-07-01 | |
| Commodities Broad | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-02-11 | |
| Gold Miners | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-02-11 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-03-24
SPX
bearish
Lacy Hunt · video
Technical momentum indicators signal the stock market is breaking down from the biggest bubble in history, implying a multi-year bear market with at least 50% drawdown
“we're entering a major bare market...at least 50%...most bloated stock market than it's ever been”
90d -14.3%
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts
2025-07-01
USD
bearish
Wealthion · video
DXY broke a decade-plus annual momentum structure when it closed March below 104, and with the index now trading at 97 and below the secondary 98.35 support level, a potential implosion toward multi-decade lows is underway — a disruptive factor for foreign…
“In March...we said that's it. Major bearish on the dollar index”
90d -2.5% · 180d -3.8% · 1y -9.7%
Michael Oliver: This Market Rally Is a Trap, Get Ready for a Major Top Like in 2000 & 2007!
2025-07-01
Commercial Real Estate
bearish
Wealthion · video
Commercial real estate is heavily indebted with major maturities due in 2025–2026, is already sharply underperforming versus the S&P rally, and cascading defaults in this sector could shift market attention away from Nvidia and trigger a broader credit event…
“watch the financial sector because you can't afford to have the commercial real estate sector suddenly become a sideline headline”
90d -2.5% · 180d -1.1% · 1y -12.1%
Michael Oliver: This Market Rally Is a Trap, Get Ready for a Major Top Like in 2000 & 2007!
2025-07-01
SILVER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Silver is technically breaking out of its trend of relative underperformance versus gold — key momentum factors triggered in the upper $34s — and Oliver expects an acceleration phase to $60–$70 by year-end 2025, mirroring historical surges in 1979–80 and…
“I think silver is about to go into the $60–70 range. I think it'll do it this year”
90d +29.9% · 180d +101.7% · 1y +63.7%
Michael Oliver: This Market Rally Is a Trap, Get Ready for a Major Top Like in 2000 & 2007!
2025-07-01
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Miners are technically at the breakout point of their trend of relative underperformance versus gold, and historically when miners and silver begin outperforming gold it converts into price acceleration across all monetary metals — miners are described as the…
“silver and the gold and silver miners will now move from the back to the front in terms of performance”
90d +14.6% · 180d +29.6% · 1y +20.5%
Michael Oliver: This Market Rally Is a Trap, Get Ready for a Major Top Like in 2000 & 2007!
2025-07-01
SPX
bearish
Wealthion · video
Long-term momentum structure broke in January and the current rally to new highs is a widening-top trap — price edged above the February high while momentum remains below broken trend floors, directly analogous to the summer-2000 and October-2007 false…
“we still think based on momentum that the market is broken. This rally to a quote new high is a teaser”
90d -7.8% · 180d -12.0% · 1y -22.1%
Michael Oliver: This Market Rally Is a Trap, Get Ready for a Major Top Like in 2000 & 2007!
2025-02-11
NVDA
bearish
Wealthion · video
Nvidia is the current cycle's Cisco—the real AI story doesn't prevent the stock from collapsing 80%+ as the dot-com poster child did, because the bubble pricing corrects even when the underlying technology thesis proves correct.
“I look at some charts and 50 bucks makes sense to me”
90d +7.4% · 180d -37.1% · 1y -43.2%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
Gold Miners
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold miners (GDX/XAU index) are at multi-decade lows relative to gold and to the S&P 500 on a spread basis, and when the equity bubble breaks, capital rotating into gold will cascade into the tiny mining sector and produce gains that triple gold's own advance.
“the gold miners relative to gold are likely to triple the upside gains of gold once they break out of that base”
90d +12.5% · 180d +39.2% · 1y +157.6%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
SILVER
bullish
Wealthion · video
Silver is only 1.15% of the gold price versus a 50-year normal of 2%, and the silver-to-gold spread is on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year downtrend; at 2% of an $8,000 gold price silver would quadruple to quintuple, and Chinese solar-panel demand is…
“2% of $8,000 gold—silver would beat it handily... the potential gain in silver is cheap right now in relation to gold”
90d +2.2% · 180d +17.9% · 1y +164.0%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
Long Dur Treasuries
bearish
Wealthion · video
Annual and quarterly momentum on T-bonds broke in October 2020 and has remained broken for four years; yields rose even when the Fed cut rates, meaning bonds are now beyond Fed control and any yield decline is only a temporary counter-trend move.
“any rally you get in t-bonds now any dropping yields it's going to be temporary”
90d +1.5% · 180d -1.0% · 1y -4.0%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
GOLD
bullish
Wealthion · video
Gold has matched the two prior bull cycles—each an ~8-fold move—and a third repetition from the $1,050 bare low implies an $8,000 target; accelerating Fed money-printing to contain the coming equity bubble collapse will be the additional catalytic force.
“our bare low is 1050 and to even get to 8,000 is just to say oh we're doing it again—it's not anything exceptional”
90d +11.5% · 180d +15.4% · 1y +74.9%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
Commodities Broad
bullish
Wealthion · video
Last month's Bloomberg Commodity Index close triggered an upside quarterly momentum signal for the first time since 2020, signaling the start of a second commodity wave up that will run in sync with gold as money flees broken equity bubble markets.
“last month's close on the Bloomberg caused us to put a thumbs up on quarterly momentum—it's waking up, it's now ready to join gold”
90d -5.8% · 180d -3.1% · 1y +11.6%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
MOO
bullish
Wealthion · video
Agriculture-related equities (fertilizer, tractors, crop producers) will participate in the commodity second wave and represent safe, commodity-linked equity exposure as the broader stock market bubble deflates.
90d +4.9% · 180d +7.6% · 1y +29.5%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
long SILVER / long GOLD
ratio
Wealthion · video
The silver-to-gold spread (silver as % of gold price) is breaking out of a multi-year downtrend from the 1.6% ceiling, targeting the historical 2–2.5% normal; this spread shift historically coincides with an acceleration in both metals but with silver gaining…
“we're not just watching momentum in the price of gold and silver—we're watching the relationship because whenever that spread shifts it translates into accelerated price action by both metals”
90d +6.8% · 180d +16.6% · 1y +119.4%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
2025-02-11
long Gold Miners / short SPX
pair
Wealthion · video
Gold and silver miners (GDX / XAU index) are near 10-year lows relative to the S&P 500 on a spread basis, and when equity bubble capital rotates into hard assets, miners will dramatically outperform equities, making a long-miners / short-S&P 500 rotation…
90d +7.9% · 180d +16.8% · 1y +71.0%
Michael Oliver: Why Momentum Says This Market Is in Trouble
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