Investors / stance tracking
What Whitney Tilson is saying
FollowFollowingUnfollowFormer hedge fund manager — T2 Partners
39 dated public stances tracked since 2009-03-28, most recently 2026-10-23. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Whitney Tilson's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Whitney Tilson is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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39
tracked stances
27
themes
2
side flips
2026-10-23
last heard
Returns 90d +10.1% 72% correct · 18 calls · 180d +12.4% 67% correct · 18 calls · 1y +44.7% 67% correct · 18 calls
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Scored calls
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
| Date | Name | Call | 90d | 180d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-12 | META | owns | +0.6% | +1.1% | +24.3% |
| 2024-03-12 | CME | bullish | -8.3% | +1.5% | +23.4% |
| 2024-03-12 | CBOE | bullish | -5.3% | +17.0% | +16.1% |
| 2024-03-12 | BITCOIN | bearish | +2.8% | +23.3% | -17.0% |
| 2020-05-06 | BANKS | owns | +9.8% | +22.1% | +99.7% |
| 2020-03-18 | SPX | bullish | +33.5% | +45.1% | +69.2% |
| 2020-01-31 | long AMZN / long META / long GOOGL | basket | +6.1% | +24.3% | +42.8% |
| 2020-01-31 | UBER | bearish | +16.6% | +14.5% | -45.4% |
| 2020-01-31 | TEVA | bearish | -3.3% | -13.9% | -15.5% |
| 2020-01-31 | MNK | bearish | +11.5% | +48.1% | +83.7% |
| 2020-01-31 | CHS | bearish | +59.8% | +61.7% | +40.2% |
| 2020-01-31 | BLDP | bearish | -2.9% | -50.8% | -100.0% |
| 2020-01-30 | TSLA | bullish | +24.9% | +130.4% | +519.2% |
| 2019-10-16 | MO | bullish | +18.9% | -2.9% | -0.6% |
| 2019-09-25 | META | bullish | +12.2% | -19.0% | +36.5% |
| 2019-09-25 | HHH | bullish | -4.9% | -71.6% | -57.2% |
| 2019-09-25 | GOOGL | bullish | +7.9% | -15.4% | +14.2% |
| 2019-09-25 | AMZN | owns | +1.2% | +7.6% | +70.8% |
View flips
Where the tracked view on a theme reversed between appearances — bullish to bearish or back. Dates are the episodes on each side of the turn.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK | 6 | 6 bullish | 2026-09-18 | |
| BITCOIN | 2 | 2 bearish | 2024-03-12 | |
| META | 2 | 2 bullish | 2024-03-12 | |
| SPX | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2026-10-23 | |
| TSLA | 2 | 1 bullish / 1 bearish | 2020-01-30 | |
| AMZN | 1 | 1 bullish | 2019-09-25 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-10-23
short SPX / long RSP / long International Dev
other
Whitney Tilson (newest) · video
SPY's market-cap weighting puts 40% of exposure in the top-10 stocks—mostly tech—at an all-time high concentration, making an equal-weight and international rotation prudent risk management
“I worry it is starting to get top-heavy”
Wealth Tax Debate, Midterm Investing, AI Anxiety
2026-10-23
long RSP / long International Dev / short SPX
basket
Bloomberg Podcasts (feed) · video
Rotating from market-cap-weighted SPY into equal-weight RSP and international VXUS reduces over-concentration in large-cap US tech that is at all-time highs as a share of the index
“I've recently recommended that they shift from SPY...into RSP...and a bit of VXUS”
Affordability In Focus Ahead of Midterms; US National Wealth Tax Debate | Bloomberg Money
SPY's market-cap weighting puts 40% into the top-10 mostly-tech stocks at an all-time-high concentration, making RSP's equal-weight S&P 500 exposure less top-heavy and a safer alternative for long-term retirement accounts
“I worry that it's sort of getting top heavy. And so I've recommended that they shift part of that into RSP”
National Wealth Tax Could Work: Tilson
SPY is at an all-time high concentration with 40% in the top 10 stocks (mostly tech), making it top-heavy, so reducing exposure in favor of equal-weight and international diversification is prudent
“I worry that it's sort of getting top-heavy”
Affordability In Focus Ahead of Midterms; US National Wealth Tax Debate | Bloomberg Money
2026-10-23
International Dev
bullish
Whitney Tilson (newest) · video
Adding a Vanguard international index fund provides geographic diversification away from the US large-cap tech concentration embedded in a standard S&P 500 index fund holding
“a bit of an index fund called VCs — it's a Vanguard — so it's just an international index fund”
National Wealth Tax Could Work: Tilson
2026-09-18
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Berkshire trades at a 12% discount to intrinsic value (~$856K per A share vs ~$754K current) with Greg Abel deploying idle cash into blue-chip stocks and buybacks, expected to outperform S&P 500 by 2-3 points annually
“Berkshire today is trading at a 12% discount to its intrinsic value”
Warren Buffett Is Gone. Is Berkshire Hathaway Still a Buy? | Top Stocks
ARK Innovation ETFs concentrate in speculative high-valuation growth names that Tilson views as a bubble driven by hype rather than fundamentals, with a multi-year track record of destruction he has warned about consistently
“If you own any Kathy Wood, you should sell that. She is the bubble queen.”
Warren Buffett Is Gone. Is Berkshire Hathaway Still a Buy? | Top Stocks
Delta is the highest-quality airline franchise and Greg Abel's initiation of a position signals a disciplined capital-allocation shift at Berkshire, validating the stock's blue-chip status
“Delta Airlines is the bluest of blue chip airline stocks. I think will likely do well.”
Warren Buffett Is Gone. Is Berkshire Hathaway Still a Buy? | Top Stocks
CoreWeave carries heavy debt in a potentially bubble AI-infrastructure sector with accelerating cash burn, making equity likely worthless
“anything with a lot of debt… like a CoreWeave… which I think is a zero”
Warren Buffett Is Gone. Is Berkshire Hathaway Still a Buy? | Top Stocks
2026-05-13
LVMH
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
High-quality luxury and spirits brands with strong pricing power are beaten down by tariff-war fears and a China slowdown, creating a value entry into durable franchises
“I think Diageo and Prada, for example, are super interesting here”
Whitney Tilson shared insights on Berkshire, AI, and what to buy next.
2026-05-13
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Berkshire trades at a 12% discount to intrinsic value and Greg Abel's operational focus on Geico, utilities, and Burlington Northern represents low-hanging fruit Buffett deliberately left on the table
“the stock is trading at a 12% discount to intrinsic value, and I think Greg Abel's going to be able to do some smart things”
Whitney Tilson shared insights on Berkshire, AI, and what to buy next.
2024-03-12
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Berkshire trades at roughly 7% discount to intrinsic value after a recent run, and its diversified business quality should deliver a few percentage points of annual outperformance over the S&P 500
“I think you'll do a few percentage points better than the S&P 500 over the next few years”
The State Of The Economy, Markets, And The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom | Whitney Tilson
Meta was mispriced at under $100 during peak pessimism and has been a 5x winner; Tilson continues to hold because valuations have not reached bubble territory and winners should be allowed to run
“I'm sort of letting the stocks like meta like Berkshire that I've owned for a while…letting things ride”
90d +0.6% · 180d +1.1% · 1y +24.3%
The State Of The Economy, Markets, And The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom | Whitney Tilson
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value anchor so there is no upside limit, making it un-shortable, but after a 350x run with no cash-flow basis it is purely speculative and 'heck no' is the answer to entering now
“that certainly smells frothy…is now the time to get in? Heck no is my view”
90d +2.8% · 180d +23.3% · 1y -17.0%
The State Of The Economy, Markets, And The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom | Whitney Tilson
CME Group is an exceptional, highly profitable exchange business (24x PE despite 14x revenue) with durable competitive advantages in futures and options clearing, fitting a GARP profile within a historically superior asset class of exchange operators
“it's an exceptional business…only trades at 24 times earnings”
90d -8.3% · 180d +1.5% · 1y +23.4%
The State Of The Economy, Markets, And The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom | Whitney Tilson
CBOE Global Markets benefits from secular growth in options trading worldwide and, like all exchange operators historically, should outperform the broader index; trades at ~26x earnings with a similar GARP profile to CME
“CBOE Global Markets focuses more on options exchanges worldwide”
90d -5.3% · 180d +17.0% · 1y +16.1%
The State Of The Economy, Markets, And The Mistake Of Predicting Doom And Gloom | Whitney Tilson
2023-01-13
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Berkshire trades roughly 12-13% below intrinsic value and its diversified structure should allow it to outperform the S&P 500 by a few percentage points
“Berkshire Hathaway will probably do 20 25 percent... it's a little bit undervalued”
Whitney Tilson On Avoiding The 5 Calamities That Can Ruin You
Major US banks are down 40%+ but the Fed is shoring up lending and Buffett is holding his large bank stakes, making them an attractive long-term economic rebound play
“a nice way to play the economic rebound long term and I own them in my personal account”
90d +9.8% · 180d +22.1% · 1y +99.7%
What We Can Learn From Warren Buffett's Outlook | Whitney Tilson
Market is down 30%+ from peak and historically buying the S&P 500 after a 30-35% drawdown has never failed to be profitable within three years, with average 1-year forward return of 13.7%
“catching a falling knife requires a strong stomach but historically history is on my side”
90d +33.5% · 180d +45.1% · 1y +69.2%
Whitney Tilson discusses why he is investing in the market now amid COVID-19 volatility
2020-01-31
long AMZN / long META / long GOOGL
basket
Whitney Tilson · video
Amazon, Facebook, and Google are all good longs because despite legitimate antitrust concerns, current courts and administration make breakup or meaningful regulatory action highly unlikely, leaving the underlying businesses intact to compound.
“I think Amazon's a good long I think Facebook is a good long I think Google is a good long”
90d +6.1% · 180d +24.3% · 1y +42.8%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
Uber IPO'd at $45 and recently ran from the mid-$20s to the mid-$30s, creating a fresh re-entry opportunity on the short side with the full bear case detailed in an accompanying 20-slide deck.
“I think it's pretty good short even though I don't think it's going to zero”
90d +16.6% · 180d +14.5% · 1y -45.4%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
2020-01-31
CHS
bearish
Whitney Tilson · video
Chico's FAS is mall-based retail with no differentiated reason to exist, already down 50% in a bull market, making it a candidate for continued secular decline toward zero.
“Chico's FAS is mall based retail it really has no reason to exist”
90d +59.8% · 180d +61.7% · 1y +40.2%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
2020-01-31
BLDP
bearish
Whitney Tilson · video
Ballard Power has spent 20 years making hydrogen-powered forklifts while losing money on every unit sold, yet carries a ~$2B market cap that is fundamentally unjustified by its economics.
“ballard power is a pretty darn good short right now”
90d -2.9% · 180d -50.8% · 1y -100.0%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
2020-01-31
MNK
bearish
Whitney Tilson · video
Mallinckrodt's central role in the opioid epidemic exposes it to legal liabilities large enough to likely bankrupt the company, particularly given its debt load.
“Mallinckrodt is super high risk”
90d +11.5% · 180d +48.1% · 1y +83.7%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
Teva Pharmaceuticals faces opioid-epidemic legal liability that could exceed its capacity to pay, creating high bankruptcy risk especially combined with its existing debt burden.
“Taba pharmaceuticals has it's super high risk”
90d -3.3% · 180d -13.9% · 1y -15.5%
Hedge Fund Legend Whitney Tilson at the Art of Short Selling Conference
Tesla's profitable Q3 and positive cash flow blew a hole in the bear thesis of ongoing losses and demand collapse, making it no longer a viable short even though it's not a recommended long
“I'm not saying this as a long but this is not a good short right cover your short”
90d +24.9% · 180d +130.4% · 1y +519.2%
Whitney Tilson Talks Tesla, Buybacks — and His Coming 2020 Mistake
Altria is very cheap at 9x earnings and yielding 8.4%, and while cigarette volumes decline and Juul faces regulatory pressure, an outright ban is implausible and valuation provides a large margin of safety
“it's awfully cheap at nine times earnings and yielding 8.4 percent”
90d +18.9% · 180d -2.9% · 1y -0.6%
Whitney Tilson | How 2020 Elections Could Impact Stock Recommendations
2019-10-16
CANNABIS SECTOR
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Cannabis stocks have fallen over 50% from peak yet the sector has real revenues and a strong legislative tailwind from state-by-state and global legalization, making it an interesting research opportunity now that valuations have reset
“i think it's a very interesting area in which to do research”
Whitney Tilson | How 2020 Elections Could Impact Stock Recommendations
Cryptocurrencies generate no cash flow, have no basis for valuation, and will never be accepted as a mainstream currency, making them a purely speculative techno-libertarian pump-and-dump scheme individual investors should avoid
“cryptocurrencies are a techno libertarian pump and dump scheme”
Whitney Tilson | How 2020 Elections Could Impact Stock Recommendations
2019-10-16
Gse Mortgage
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Trump administration and FHFA are moving rapidly to recap and release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before a potential Democratic presidency can reverse it, creating 8-10x upside potential skewed toward a positive outcome despite zero risk
“I think fannie mae has eight to ten bagger potential on the upside and could be zero but it's skewed toward a positive outcome”
Whitney Tilson | How 2020 Elections Could Impact Stock Recommendations
2019-09-25
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Berkshire is a core 10-year compounder held as one-third of his family portfolio, representing his highest-conviction durable-business holding
“one-third Berkshire”
7 Stocks to Hold for 10 Years
Amazon is one of his three favorite large-cap tech compounders held for the long term with equal weighting to Meta and Alphabet
“11% each in Amazon Facebook and Google”
90d +1.2% · 180d +7.6% · 1y +70.8%
7 Stocks to Hold for 10 Years
Meta is one of his three favorite large-cap tech compounders held as a core long-term position
90d +12.2% · 180d -19.0% · 1y +36.5%
7 Stocks to Hold for 10 Years
Alphabet is one of his three favorite large-cap tech compounders held as a core long-term position
90d +7.9% · 180d -15.4% · 1y +14.2%
7 Stocks to Hold for 10 Years
Howard Hughes is one of his two non-tech anchor positions for long-term hold, given alongside Berkshire as a top conviction compounder
“one-third Howard Hughes”
90d -4.9% · 180d -71.6% · 1y -57.2%
7 Stocks to Hold for 10 Years
2018-08-30
BRK
bullish
Whitney Tilson · video
Buffett's disclosed buybacks above $300K/share establish a new soft downside floor replacing the old 1.2x book floor at $261K, while the stock trades at ~90 cents on the dollar of intrinsic value (~$350K/share) and compounds intrinsic value 8-10% annually
“the stock is super cheap we estimate it's about a 90 cent dollar today”
Whitney Tilson on Berkshire buying back its own stock
After years of being a widow-maker short that destroyed nearly every short seller, Tesla may have finally reached a point where the risk/reward has shifted enough to consider a short position, though the specific catalyst is not articulated in this session
“I think Tesla just in the past month or two has possibly become a short”
Lessons from 15 Years of Short Selling by Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue, Kase Learning
Wells Fargo generates $8-10B in profit per quarter which keeps pace with expected $50-120B in losses spread over many years, making the $10-15 entry price an attractive risk/reward with a ~70% chance of reaching $40-60 and ~30% downside to $2
“there's sort of a 70% chance that they make it...in which case it's a $40 to $60 stock”
Whitney Tilson on financial stocks, Fast $, 3/27/09
American Express has a strong franchise with access to government liquidity programs that keep the business viable while loss provisions, assumed to peak at 10-11%, are manageable relative to its earnings power
“companies like American Express were along in part because they are able to access some of those programs”
Whitney Tilson on financial stocks, Fast $, 3/27/09
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