Senior Portfolio Manager, Fortem Capital
6 dated public stances tracked since 2024-09-05, most recently 2025-01-08. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Jonny Matthews's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Jonny Matthews is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances. “% correct” is the share of those scored calls whose direction-aware return was positive at the horizon — in a rising market a bullish call is correct by default, so read it beside the market, not alone.
Every tracked call with at least one matured horizon: the rows behind the Returns
line above. A dash is a horizon that has not matured yet.
2025-01-08
SPX
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
At 22x forward earnings requiring 14.8% EPS growth, the index needs everything to go right while the multiple re-rating that drove 30% of the past two years' 50% gain cannot repeat, especially with rising bond yields making safe alternatives more competitive
“I find it hard to see that we're going to have uh another good year like we have had in the previous two years”
90d +15.5% · 180d -5.9% · 1y -18.3%
Higher Bond Yields To Wreak Havoc In 2025 | Jonny Matthews
2025-01-08
USD
short
Forward Guidance · video
Euro has fallen too far toward parity as speculative short positioning is crowded, while European inflation surprises (Germany, Spain) are forcing the ECB to turn hawkish, and Trump policy is likely already priced into the dollar
“the euro... has gone too far... I've got some one month call spreads on the Euro”
90d +4.6% · 180d +8.6% · 1y +4.8%
Higher Bond Yields To Wreak Havoc In 2025 | Jonny Matthews
2024-09-05
BHP
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
Deep-value miners are highly profitable even at current iron ore prices, copper has structural electrification demand, and China slowdown fears are already priced into depressed valuations
“these miners can earn money with iron ore at the current prices easily and plenty of money dividend yields are high the valuations are incredibly low”
90d +3.3% · 180d -3.6% · 1y +11.0%
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
2024-09-05
SOFR
bearish
Forward Guidance · video
Market is pricing ~200 bps of Fed cuts over the next year which is far too aggressive given strong real consumption growth, robust corporate earnings, and historically low layoffs
“the sofa Futures between now and the end of this year are pricing in almost 100 basis points... I do think that's where the opportunities are”
90d -1.1% · 180d -2.3% · 1y -4.5%
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
2024-09-05
USTS
short
Forward Guidance · video
If the Fed cuts as aggressively as priced the economy will reaccelerate quickly, inflation is not fully slain, making the long end of the curve vulnerable to rising yields
“I've shorted that but I've got a reasonably tight stop because I could well be wrong”
90d +2.4% · 180d +1.4% · 1y -2.3%
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
2024-09-05
GBP/STERLING
bullish
Forward Guidance · video
UK now has the most politically stable G7 government, real wages are rising above inflation, PMIs are strong, and the Bank of England will cut rates more slowly than the Fed — improving the UK's yield and growth differential
“the UK almost certainly has the most stable political situation in the G7... wage growth far exceeds inflation so real incomes are on the up”
There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
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