Investors / stance tracking
What Tom Hayes is saying
Guest
16 dated public stances tracked since 2020-09-15, most recently 2026-07-28. Each line carries the date and the venue it came from; quotation marks mean verbatim. Methodology.
The stances below are c8alpha's editorial distillation of Tom Hayes's public commentary — television, podcasts, and interviews — compiled by automated transcript analysis and dated to the episode they came from. They may lag the speaker's current view and may contain extraction errors. Text in quotation marks is verbatim from the episode; everything else is our paraphrase. Tom Hayes is not affiliated with c8alpha and has not endorsed this page. Nothing here is investment advice.
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16
tracked stances
15
themes
0
side flips
2026-07-28
last heard
Returns 90d +15.1% (n=6) · 180d +33.1% (n=6)
Raw direction-aware returns on public statements — long calls credited when the price rose, shorts when it fell, shorts capped at −100% — in a rising market this mostly measures who was long, not who has skill. Returns run from the stance date; calls are rarely closed publicly, so fixed 90-day / 180-day / 1-year horizons are used. A horizon shows only once it has fully matured, and only at 5+ scored stances.
Most-argued themes
| Theme | Stances | Lean | Mix | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-09-22 | |
| CONSUMER STAPLES AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-07-28 | |
| CRK | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-09-22 | |
| ENERGY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2025-09-22 | |
| ETSY | 1 | 1 bullish | 2026-06-16 | |
| GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTORS / AI TRADE | 1 | 1 bearish | 2026-06-16 |
Tracked stances
bullish / bearish is a view they argued; owns / short is a position they said they hold.
2026-07-28
INTC
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Intel at $85 is going lower as it remains part of the crowded, cyclical semiconductor complex with ongoing seasonal and election-year headwinds through fall.
“Today it's at $85. It's going lower.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
ORCL
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Oracle's credit default swap spreads are at record levels — higher than during the Great Financial Crisis — signaling deteriorating credit quality alongside negative free cash flow and record debt issuance across hyperscalers.
“Oracle's cost to insure their debt is higher than it was during the great financial crisis”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
XRAY
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Dentsply Sirona is a turnaround with a new CEO (from Globus Medical where he produced a 4x over 10 years) who reversed a failed DTC pivot, restored all major distribution agreements, cut the dividend to free up $125M of FCF, and increased R&D — on a stock…
“We think this can recover very very quickly... we like the story over the next three to five years and we think it can be a multi-bagger”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
SEMICONDUCTOR AND MEMORY CHIP STOCKS
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
The trade is the most crowded globally with institutional and retail buying calls at record highs, valuations are extreme, and these are cyclical businesses that cannot sustain high multiples — more pain ahead into fall with seasonal and election-cycle…
“Sell these shiny objects that are overcrowded”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
GOOGL
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Alphabet turned free cash flow negative for the first time in its history while committing to higher capex, stopped buybacks, issued both debt and equity diluting shareholders, and reported earnings inflated by mark-to-market gains on SpaceX and Anthropic…
“Your earnings are inflated because a lot of your earnings are from other income — it's the mark-to-market on your SpaceX and the mark-to-market on your Anthropic”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-07-28
CONSUMER STAPLES AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Consumer confidence has bounced off multi-year lows and the consumer is doing better, making staples and discretionary the preferred rotation out of crowded tech.
“You want to be consumer staples, consumer discretionary”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 7/28/2026
2026-06-16
PYPL
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
PayPal is down 80% from 2021 highs yet revenues and free cash flow are at records, margins are inflecting, and the stock trades at only 8x earnings while buying back $6B of stock this year — a valuation and growth-reacceleration setup the market is ignoring
“PayPal at eight times earnings… the growth is reaccelerating. People aren't paying attention yet.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2026-06-16
ETSY
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Etsy is down 80% from 2021 highs but revenues are at records, margins are starting to inflect, buybacks are large, and the stock trades at only 11x earnings — a compressed-multiple turnaround the market is ignoring
“Their margins are starting to inflect. No one's paying attention. They're trading at record low multiples.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2026-06-16
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTORS / AI TRADE
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
The AI/semiconductor trade is the most crowded trade globally per BofA FMS, hyperscaler CapEx as a share of free cash flow is at 98% forcing equity issuance, and Q2 earnings risk CapEx guidance cuts — together these catalysts should cool the trade over the…
“I think you're going to see a pullback in that crowded trade that's moved up a lot.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2026-06-16
S
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Falling inflation expectations will lift consumer confidence off multi-year lows, benefiting consumer-facing stocks that have been neglected while capital flooded the AI trade
“You can buy these consumer stocks that have been out of favor and make some money while people are worried about their AI trade.”
Tom Hayes - Fox Business - Claman Countdown Appearance - 6/16/2026
2025-09-22
BABA
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Alibaba offers the cheapest global AI exposure via $80B cash, $25B free cash flow, 40% Chinese compute market share, and equity stakes extracted from every Chinese AI company in exchange for cloud capacity
“Alibaba was the cheapest way to play AI around the world”
90d -8.1% · 180d -23.3%
Tom Hayes - Claman Countdown Appearance - 09/22/2025
2025-09-22
ENERGY
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Energy is the cheapest S&P 500 sector at 15.2x forward PE and a 3% index weight — the same forgotten extreme as 2020 — with 17% forward earnings growth and seasonal tailwinds, historically producing large gains over the next 12-18 months when bought at this…
“every time you've taken a bid when it's that forgotten, you've made tremendous amounts of money over the next 12 to 18 months”
90d +1.7% · 180d +38.1%
Tom Hayes - Claman Countdown Appearance - 09/22/2025
2025-09-22
CRK
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Comstock Resources is the largest Haynesville shale operator, trading at book value with 10-year proved reserves and 30 years unproved, ideally sited near LNG export terminals to capture AI-driven natural gas demand
“This could be a $45 stock from 16 over the next three years”
90d +23.4% · 180d +20.0%
Tom Hayes - Claman Countdown Appearance - 09/22/2025
2020-09-15
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
bearish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Tech earnings power has been pulled forward leaving only 13% growth in 2021, and 80% of managers in a 500B AUM survey consider it the most crowded trade in multi-decade survey history
“tech is only going to grow at 13 next year so a lot of their earnings power has been pulled forward”
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 9/15/2020
2020-09-15
SCHW
bullish
Fox Claman Countdown · video
TD Ameritrade acquisition closes year-end, forcing a pivot to high-margin wealth management, and rising yields from vaccine rollout will boost net interest income on client cash
“they bought td ameritrade that will close the end of this year now with zero commission trading they've got to make their money on the wealth management side”
90d +44.0% · 180d +92.3% · 1y +107.3%
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 9/15/2020
2020-09-15
long WFC / long BANKS / long BANKS
basket
Fox Claman Countdown · video
Financials rotate into favor as tech 2021 earnings growth slows to 13% while financials grow 32%, and vaccine-driven yield rise will expand net interest margins for the major banks
“we like financials we like the major banks wells fargo bank of america jp morgan”
90d +26.3% · 180d +72.5% · 1y +75.0%
Tom Hayes – The Claman Countdown – Fox Business Appearance – 9/15/2020
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